MaxLinear - Q2 2023
July 26, 2023
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Hello, and welcome to the MaxLinear Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. If anyone should require operator assistance, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. You may press star one at any time to be placed into question queue. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to your host, Leslie Green, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Leslie.
Leslie Green (Investor Relations)
Thank you, Kevin. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us on today's conference call to discuss MaxLinear's second quarter 2023 financial results. Today's call is being hosted by Dr. Kishore Seendripu, CEO, and Steve Litchfield, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Corporate Strategy Officer. After our prepared comments, we will take questions. Our comments today include forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable securities laws, including statements relating to our guidance for the third quarter 2023, including revenue, GAAP and non-GAAP growth, profit margin, GAAP and non-GAAP operating expenses, GAAP and non-GAAP tax rate, GAAP and non-GAAP interest and other expenses, and GAAP and non-GAAP diluted share count.
In addition, we will make forward-looking statements regarding relating to trends, opportunities, and uncertainties in various product and geographic markets, including, without limitation, statements concerning opportunities arising from our broadband, wireless infrastructure, connectivity and industrial markets, timing for the launch of our products, and opportunities for improved revenue and market share across our target markets. These forward-looking statements involve risks, substantial risks and uncertainties, including risks related to increased indebtedness, competition, the impact of a global economic downturn and high inflation, the cyclical nature of the semiconductor industry, our ability to sustain current level of revenue, including from impacts of excess inventory on our customers' expected demand for certain of our products, our ability to obtain or retain government authorization to export certain of our products or technology, and a failure to manage our relationships with or negative impacts from third parties.
More information on these and other risk factors is outlined in the Risk Factors section of our recent SEC filings, including our Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2023, which will be filed today. Any forward-looking statements are made as of today. MaxLinear has no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement. The second quarter 2023 earnings release is available in the Investor Relations section of our website at maxlinear.com. In addition, we report certain historical financial metrics, including but not limited to, gross margin, operating margin, operating expenses, and interest and other expense on both a GAAP and non-GAAP basis. We encourage investors to review the detailed reconciliation of our GAAP and non-GAAP presentations in the press release available on our website.
We do not provide a reconciliation of non-GAAP guidance for future periods because of the inherent uncertainty associated with our ability to project certain future charges, including stock-based compensation and its associated tax effects. Non-GAAP financial measures discussed today are not meant to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for the comparable GAAP financial measures. We are providing this information because management believes it to be useful to investors as it reflects how management measures our business. Lastly, this call is also being webcast, and a replay will be available on our website for two weeks. Now let me turn the call over to Dr. Kishore Seendripu, CEO of MaxLinear. Kishore?
Kishore Seendripu (CEO)
Thank you, Leslie. Good afternoon, everyone. In Q2, our revenues were $183.9 million, and non-GAAP gross margin was strong at 61%. Our non-GAAP operating margin came in at 16.2%, and cash flow from operating activities was $30.6 million. In Q2, infrastructure was the highlight, recording 6% sequential and 37% year-on-year growth, with 5G wireless backhaul continuing to be the strongest driver. In wireless infrastructure, Q2 marked a record revenue contribution for our wireless backhaul business. In particular, wireless backhaul deployments of multiband hybrid milli- millimeter wave and microwave radios are allowing us to double the silicon content per platform of our modem and RF transceiver products.
We are very well positioned to benefit from the expanding rollout of millimeter wave technologies across several large geographies and are currently partnered with Tier 1 equipment suppliers to support ongoing 5G network rollouts. In our high-speed optical data center interconnects, the ongoing adoption of AI in cloud is driving meaningful design win activity for our 5nm CMOS Keystone 800Gb optical PAM4 solution. The growth and scale of AI is accelerating the adoption of 800 Gb solutions and increasing the need for a broader customer supplier base. We are strategically positioned with the industry's first 5nm CMOS, 400Gb, and 800Gb PAM4 DSP production-ready silicon. Based on our design win activity and ongoing customer qual pipeline, we expect to ship small volumes in the back half of this year, leading to volume ramps throughout 2024.
In Q2, as expected, our broadband access, connectivity, and industrial multi-markets continued to be challenged owing to excess customer inventories and the ongoing cyclical semiconductor downturn. Despite the challenging market in broadband access, we continue to have solid market traction with our industry-leading single-chip integrated fiber PON and 10Gb processor gateway system solution. Our PON access revenue continues to show strong growth off a modest baseline, and we continue to win new designs due to the breadth of our integrated access and connectivity technologies. We expect to see a multi-year growth cycle for our solutions as the industry migrates from legacy DSL and older PON technologies to 10Gb PON. In connectivity, though we are early in the design cycle for Wi-Fi 7, we believe that our Wave 700 product family has the exciting potential to drive significant ASP growth and higher attach rates over our previous generations.
Wave 700 is the industry's first and only single-chip tri-band Wi-Fi 7 solution, targeting access points and gateways. We expect Wave 700 product to ramp across multiple platforms starting in 2024. In our Ethernet connectivity portfolio at Computex in Taiwan, we announced our new four-port and eight-port 2.5Gb Ethernet 5 Switch solutions for the SMB switch market, and also our eight-port two-and-a-half gigabit Ethernet 5 for the enterprise market. While this new and unique product family, we are enabling the industry's transition from 1Gb-2.5Gb Ethernet or existing Cat 5 cabling by offering significant performance enhancement with superior cost structure and power consumption. Owing to the strong positive customer pull and designing activity, we expect to begin revenue ramp in the first half of 2024.
In 2023, despite the near-term challenging market environment, MaxLinear is laying the critical groundwork for future growth with design win activity, technology innovation, and customer relationship building, spanning fiber broadband, Wi-Fi connectivity, Ethernet, wireless infrastructure, and high-speed optical data center interconnect and enterprise markets. Our disciplined initiatives are driving robust design win activities across all our strategic markets, and we expect to ramp new revenue growth opportunities beginning late 2023 and throughout 2024. We believe that these initiatives will both increase our market share and expand our silicon content in our proven, successful customer platforms. With that, let me now turn the call over to Steve Litchfield, our Chief Financial Officer and Chief Corporate Strategy Officer. Steve?
Steve Litchfield (CFO and Chief Corporate Strategy Officer)
Thank you, Kishore. Total revenue for the second quarter was $183.9 million, down 26% versus Q1 and down 34% year-over-year. Broadband revenue was $54 million, down 34% versus Q1 and down 62% year-over-year. Connectivity revenue in the quarter was $38 million, down 43% sequentially and down 33% year-over-year. Our infrastructure and end market continued to grow in Q2 as a result of solid demand and growing market opportunity. Infrastructure had revenue of $49 million, up 6% versus the prior quarter and 37% year-over-year. Our industrial multi-market revenue was $43 million in Q2, down 20% sequentially and 11% year-over-year. GAAP and non-GAAP gross margin for the second quarter were approximately 55.9% and 61% of revenue.
The delta between GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins in the second quarter was primarily driven by $9.1 million of acquisition-related intangible asset amortization. Second quarter GAAP operating expenses were $108.8 million, including stock-based compensation and performance-based equity accruals of $16.5 million, combined, and acquisition and integration cost of $3.7 million. Non-GAAP operating expenses in Q2 were $82.5 million, up $1.7 million versus Q1, and slightly above the midpoint of our guidance range. Non-GAAP operating margin for Q1 2023 was 16.2%. Both GAAP and non-GAAP interest and other income during the quarter was $1.2 million. In Q2, cash flow generated from operating activities was $30.6 million. We exited Q2 of 2023 with approximately $246 million in cash equivalents, and short-term investments.
Our day sales outstanding for the first quarter was approximately 77 days, up from the previous quarter due to shipment linearity. Our gross inventory turns were 1.7x, down from Q1 levels. This concludes the discussion of our Q2 financial results. Let's turn to our guidance for Q3 2023. We currently expect revenue in the third quarter of 2023 to be between $125 million and $155 million. Looking at Q3 by end market, we expect all four of our end markets to be down quarter-over-quarter, driven by continued rationalization of product inventory, sitting with both our direct and channel customers.
We expect third quarter GAAP gross profit margin to be approximately 53%-56%, and non-GAAP gross profit margin to be in the range of 59.5% and 62.5% of revenue. Gross margin continues to be stable despite lower unit volumes, with the range being driven by a combination of near-term product, customer, and end market mix. We expect Q3 2023 GAAP operating expenses to be in the range of $104 million-$110 million. We expect Q3 2023 non-GAAP operating expenses to be in the range of $75 million-$81 million. For Q3, we expect to record a negligible GAAP tax benefit, and we expect our non-GAAP tax provision to be approximately zero. We expect our Q3 GAAP and non-GAAP interest and other expense to be roughly $5 million.
We expect our Q3 GAAP and non-GAAP diluted share count of $82 million-$83 million. Before moving to Q&A, I'd like to briefly address the press release we issued earlier today regarding our previously announced transaction with Silicon Motion. As you saw from our press release, we have exercised our contractual right to terminate the merger agreement. Please note that we do not intend to share any further detail on this matter at this time, and our call today will be focused on our quarterly results. In closing, we continue to navigate a dynamic environment in Q3, but on laying important groundwork and strategic applications that will drive our growth as the market recovers. Our solid product innovation and execution in Wi-Fi, fiber broadband access gateways, and wireless infrastructure is positioning us well to capture compelling revenue opportunities in the coming quarters.
As always, we will continue our strong focus on operational efficiency, fiscal discipline, and shareholder value as we optimize for today and plan for an exciting future. With that, I'd like to open up the call for questions. Operator?
Operator (participant)
Thank you. We'll now be conducting a question-and-answer session. If you'd like to be placed in the question queue, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you'd like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing star one. One moment, please, while we poll for questions. Our first question today is coming from Quinn Bolton from Needham & Company. Your line is now live.
Quinn Bolton (Managing Director and Equity Research)
Hey, guys. Obviously, a dynamic environment for the core business. I guess, you know, a quarter ago, you kind of thought, you know, you were coming in to, I think, what was going to be a shallower bottom for the September quarter. Obviously, things are a lot lower than, I think, what you're thinking 30 or sorry, 90 days ago. Can you give us some sense, you know, how much of this is inventory correction? How much of it is that orders have just, you know, continued to come in at very low levels? We've heard that from some other semiconductors companies that have reported to date.
Just, you know, I guess as the revenues get lower here in the near term, you know, it just kind of makes the potential overshipments of 21 and 22 seem that much larger. If you can give us any sense what you think consumption, true consumption of your systems are right now, you know, it would be helpful for folks.
Steve Litchfield (CFO and Chief Corporate Strategy Officer)
Quinn, I'll jump in here. You're right. I mean, I think we talked about this in our previous earnings call. I think originally we thought we would move through the inventory in the first half of the year. It's definitely pushed into the second half. I mean, we had a pretty good feel that, you know, it'd be bottoming out in Q3. I think that's still playing out, albeit at a lower level than what we had expected. I think the visibility on the booking side has been the challenge. Frankly, we've not seen tremendous amount of bookings. I mean, backlog, you know, we've had a decent level of backlog all year long, and it's really hard to navigate in that environment. Bookings, there's still lots of uncertainty out there.
I mean, I talked about last quarter about demand generally holding up, I think that's still to some extent true. I mean, the broadband connectivity side, there probably is a little more softness on that side, just from an overall end demand standpoint. The primary driver here of the bigger decline in Q3 than anticipated is strictly that inventory that's sitting out there.
Quinn Bolton (Managing Director and Equity Research)
I guess, you know, is there a risk you think this inventory burn? You know, if bookings remain this low and demand certainly doesn't seem like it's recovering, strongly, I mean, what's the risk that this inventory correction maybe lingers into first half of next year?
Steve Litchfield (CFO and Chief Corporate Strategy Officer)
Yeah, well, I mean, I think it's I think we're all across the industry asking that question. I, you know, I think we've been under shipping demand. I think we see that today, that we're still under shipping where the real demand levels are. At the same time, demand hasn't been robust per se, so I don't think we've burned off that inventory as quick as we thought we would. You know, different end markets are kind of going through this at different times. I mean, you've seen this from other peers that have announced. You know, even within our own business, broadband connectivity is different than we've seen in industrial multimarket. I mean, we've talked earlier about industrial multimarket holding up, although you've seen some cracks there, across the industry, right?
You know, does it bleed into the first half of next year? I mean, it feels like we're going to get through it this year and, you know, start to see a little bit of recovery in Q4. We're watching closely, that's for sure.
Quinn Bolton (Managing Director and Equity Research)
understood. Just maybe last quick one for Kishore. You talked about, I think, some growing design wins on the optical DSP side, you know, with some initial volumes the first half, sorry, second half of this year and ramp through 2024. Can you say, are these mostly 400G modules, 800G modules? Is it a mix? Is it at multiple hyperscalers? You know, just any more color on the potential growth on the DSP, because obviously, I think investors are looking for ways to sort of play AI trends, and it sounds like that might be one of the plays MaxLinear has on growth in AI systems. Thanks.
Kishore Seendripu (CEO)
Quinn, thank you. Absolutely, you know, this has been a long-standing investment of the company. We have been investing now for almost three years plus, and starting out in five years ago, actually, as a business development activity. You know, we missed the first phase of the actual PAM4 for 100Gb per lambda. Now we are here, but we have a very compelling solution with our 800G PAM4 in 5 nm solution. That's the strategic position of our product, and we have a lead time on that one with respect to competition. The qualifications that we are going through, I want to categorize them in 2 buckets. Firstly, when we talk of design win activity in pipeline, naturally, is the module makers, right?
Who are the ones who supply to the data center folks and other enterprise players, right? Especially in AI. There's a large demand out there, and we are in activities to get qualified and interop for these 800G solutions. We have design wins with pretty much all the major OEMs for 800Gb, and, you know, on 400 gigabit PAM4 as well. It's really, really the lead and the compelling values in 800 gigabit PAM4. You know, you, you track the design wins because the design footprint is identical and the technology and the firm in the software is very scalable. We are also getting drag along 400G PAM4 design wins.
You also want to keep in mind that the transition is going towards either 2 by 400 or which is equal to 800 or just 800 itself. The clear answer is that the design win pipeline activity is with the OEM module makers. The interop and calls are with the module makers and the data center folks. You have to keep that in mind. The expectation is with this level of frenetic activity and where the performance is there today, we hoped and expect to see some initial volume at the end of 2023, and really, the ramp happening throughout 2024. At that point, expected that we are a legitimate player in optical PAM4 data center cloud market, right?
Until now, we are the new entrant breaking into the market with a compelling strategic product offering.
Steve Litchfield (CFO and Chief Corporate Strategy Officer)
Thank you, Kishore.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Next question today is coming from Christopher Rolland from BNP Paribas. Your line is now live.
Christopher Rolland (Senior Equity Analyst)
Yes, thank you. Good afternoon, gentlemen. Two questions, if I may. First, I was hoping you could discuss cash flow trajectory over the next few quarters as we're working through this current down cycle and perhaps bottoming in the third quarter. I'm particularly interested in how it relates to working capital. I ask because, you know, I would presume you would have to pay the breakup fee, you know, to Silicon Motion, whether it would be in the third quarter, perhaps later. Just any comments in terms of capital generation over the next few quarters would be super helpful. I have a follow-up.
Steve Litchfield (CFO and Chief Corporate Strategy Officer)
Sure, Chris. First of all, based on the press release earlier today and based on us filing an MAE, the break fee in this case would not be owed. That's the first question. With regard to working capital and cash flow generation, I think cash flow has been relatively good. I think we're doing a pretty good job in a typical down cycle of pulling down inventory. I mean, we got inventory down this quarter, which, you know, clearly started 2 quarters ago. We started dialing that back. I think the operations team did a good job on that front. Unfortunately, revenue is coming down a little quicker, so days were still up a little bit. I think you would expect to see, you know, us work that down over the next two quarters.
We've also done a really good job on CapEx. CapEx coming into the year, I guess, really going back to some of the restructuring that we did back in February, we really dialed back CapEx, I think that's been something that the team has done a tremendous job at. We, you know, had the luxury over a couple of years. We did spend as we were ramping up some of these product lines, so we've got a lot of equipment already, you know, in-house and working and capable. I think we can actually hold the line on operating cash flows, and once we see this bottoming out of the revenues, we'll start to generate more cash going forward.
Kishore Seendripu (CEO)
Just to clarify once again, by invoking an MAE event and terminating the acquisition process or procedure, by the deal terms, we do not owe any breakup fee.
Christopher Rolland (Senior Equity Analyst)
That's clear. Thank you for that. If I could ask a follow-up question on the outlook. I'm just curious, I guess, you know, as we think about the various aspects of your business, clearly, some have troughed or certainly been much more challenged than others. I think of the infrastructure business doing quite well, the industrial business up until this most recent quarter, doing, you know, much better than the broadband and connectivity piece of the business.
I guess if you could just speak perhaps at a higher level, how you think about, A, the bottoming process of the broadband and connectivity business, and then separately, the risks and/or visibility you have with the infrastructure business and industrial pieces of your business, that would give investors some clarity on the stability of the different aspects of your business as we think about a bottoming process in demand. Thank you.
Steve Litchfield (CFO and Chief Corporate Strategy Officer)
Yeah. Yeah, Chris. Yeah, absolutely. Great, great question, and it's something that, you know, we're spending a lot of time on, and I think Kishore hit on it in his prepared remarks. you know, as we look into 2024, you know, we have a lot of big growth initiatives that we've been working on for some times. The infrastructure, you're seeing really nice traction. We've gotten, you know, really good growth this year. Last year, we've been. You know, it's becoming a real sizable entity. It's been a big investment for us. It's a big opportunity as we look out over the next two to three years. As optical starts to kick in, you've already seen the dynamics with wireless infrastructure, some of the improvements there. We're really have a good outlook on that side of the equation.
Other growth drivers in the business, clearly Wi-Fi, PON, those still are growth drivers. Yes, we're in a cyclical downturn, no doubt, but there's also big investments being made. We've got other areas, like our storage products with our Panther product, our Ethernet solution. Ethernet is something that Kishore spoke a little bit about. It's a big opportunity for the company, and I think it's a great example of us really being innovative and coming to market, competing against the big guys like a Marvell and a Broadcom, in a unique spot in the market with 2.5G and 5G solutions that we can really expand our footprint, and I think there's a big need within the market.
Ross Seymore (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Thank you.
Steve Litchfield (CFO and Chief Corporate Strategy Officer)
Sure.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Next question today is coming from Ross Seymore from Deutsche Bank. Your line is now live.
Ross Seymore (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Hi, guys. Thanks for letting me ask a question. I guess at the highest of levels, the third quarter guide, I think directionally, everybody expected it to be down a bit. This is significantly worse than at least I expected. What gives you confidence that this is cyclical and not something more structural?
Kishore Seendripu (CEO)
Ross, that's a very, very important question. You know, like, a big, huge inventory buildup is, one could argue, is not really a cyclical event, it's a gigantic event, right? In the channel. That depletion process really masks any structural shifts that we can glean. The way I look at it as that it is not a, that this, for us, is not a structural shift, is that all our investments and activities and new products are really for new sockets. Is there some risk that those get delayed because customers are not, you know, customers are also delaying their own investments? Absolutely.
I would say that the first thing we need to watch for is the inventory burn away in the system, then during that period, how much are customers really investing in new platforms, even if our products already are, they're willing to absorb. Then, every market area where it is quite different. Infrastructure, they had been a fewer lot of new products. You know, on a, on the quarter we just announced, we're about our $200 million infrastructure, right? That's a major product category on an annualized basis. Then we've got a pipeline of optical data center products, new enterprise, switch products for SMBs, then, you know, octal 2.5Gb PHYs for enterprise markets, right? You can see that's. Then we have our storage accelerators for enterprise.
You can expect infrastructure to continue growing, and it's got the most bundle of products that are new product cycles that are in the corner. That's a very, very exciting area. If you look at our industrial multimarkets, we are investing in new interface product bridges. That's what actually. A big part of the growth that's happened in industrial markets is also new products that were launched. It has done very, very well for us. In fact, on an annual basis, probably grew 20% for us, right, over the last three years or so. That's a growth area. You, come and look at connectivity, it's grown, it's growing, but a huge part of the revenue is attached to our broadband access, which is cable and fiber.
The attach on the cable is by far the most significant one. The attach on fiber is just starting. Fiber itself is growing for us. That brings us to the corner of cable now, right. What's happening in cable? There are some structural shifts going on in cable, right. You have seen that the cable guys are competing for subscribers from the wireless providers. The lower end of the subscribers in the database for cable is being eaten away by direct wireless access, right. They are losing subscribers, right. The second part that's happening is that the telcos are more and more aggressively laying out fiber and fiber to the home.
Yes, there is a structural shift happening that is in cable, and really, cable becomes, I think, more and more a high-end play because of the quality of service on the cable and data throughputs. The growth is really in cable is going to come through content increase on the platforms, through Wi-Fi attach, not by volume increases. If anything, they expect the volumes in cable to decrease actually. By any forecast, the number of cable subscribers has come down as a cumulative addressable total market size, especially in North America.
Ross Seymore (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Thank you for all that, Quinn Bolton. I guess, two quick follow-ups. One, Steve, you mentioned that you hope that the third quarter is indeed the trough. Do you expect significant growth in the fourth quarter, or just, as you said, the visibility is so limited that, you know, calling a trough is about as much as you're willing to do tonight?
Steve Litchfield (CFO and Chief Corporate Strategy Officer)
Yeah, yeah. No, I mean, I think we're always conservative about how these things rebound. I mean, I think a modest improvement in Q4 would be where my expectations are. We'll see.
Ross Seymore (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Last, just a clarification. I know you don't want to talk about the deal announcement or termination. The OpEx guidance that you have, whether it be on the GAAP or the non-GAAP basis for the third quarter, is there any significant change in the legal expenses that we should be aware of?
Steve Litchfield (CFO and Chief Corporate Strategy Officer)
Well, on a GAAP basis, I mean, there was, you know, a decent amount of spend in Q2. You know, with this going away, I mean, that'll reduce the spend in the latter portions of the quarter.
Ross Seymore (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Next question today is coming from David Williams from Benchmark Company. Your line is now live.
David Williams (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Hey, good afternoon, and thanks for taking my question. Maybe Steve, if you can maybe give a little more color on the margin side. I know there's quite a significant decline on the revenue side, but just curious how you're if it's just mix that you're seeing in terms of maintaining that margin, or if there's any other moving pieces there we should be thinking about?
Steve Litchfield (CFO and Chief Corporate Strategy Officer)
Yeah, David, thanks for the question. Yeah, I mean, look, I think we've done a really good job on the gross margin side. kind of despite the move on the, on the lower revenues, we've held the gross margins. I think there's multiple reasons for that. I think the mix is playing a role as you're seeing more infrastructure contribution, a little less connectivity contribution. That definitely works in our favor. I think just the easing of the supply chain, we're seeing a little bit less pressure on our cost going up, so that's helpful as well. Naturally, we're always working towards getting a better cost structure for existing products as well.
Even as evidenced, as our Wi-Fi 7 product going to a single chip, I mean, there's multiple examples of where we're constantly working towards getting to a better cost structure for our products.
David Williams (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Thanks for the color. Maybe, Kishore, can you give a little more color? You talked about this in the script, about the AI opportunity, and it's driving some activity. Can you talk maybe a little bit about the magnitude of that and maybe what you're seeing relative to AI versus the other trends that have been ongoing for some time?
Kishore Seendripu (CEO)
I think that we can safely say that the big spend that's happening in cloud data infrastructure spend is really towards AI processors. There's a massive demand for that, and we have all seen the excellent results posted in that area. I mean, really, on the financial results, the excellent results posted are really by NVIDIA. Let's be very honest and clear about it. The rest are all riding on the hoopla, right? Let's call it that. NVIDIA is the big driver, and then maybe what leads through into the data centers, right? There's a massive demand for product, massive, and there's a very big shortage of supply.
There's a lot of all the OEM module makers are jockeying for supplier status, you know, for these AI needs, let's put it there, product needs. We are, we are in the thick of that, and hopefully, the calls and other things go well, and the demand is promising to last quite a bit out and having a strategically very good part, where there is very, very low power consumption, performance and, you know, quality of performance are very important, and we hope to get a piece of the pie. As I've said before, we are in the optical market, not because of AI or anything. We have a core RF, high-frequency DSP mixed-signal platform that scales from any communication system to any other network communication system.
The PAM4 DSP are just a manifestation of the platform we have. We're latecomers to that market, and we hope to really build a long-term success in that marketplace. If the AI is driving it, great. If it accelerates it, awesome. You know, we are here to stay to make sure we're successful in the cloud data space. That's a larger ambition that ties in with the infrastructure product lines we have that we have lined up, that I talked to when Ross, on Ross's question on trends.
David Williams (Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Next question is coming from Tore Svanberg from Stifel. Your line is now live.
Tore Svanberg (Managing Director)
Yes, thank you. Interesting day in MaxLinear land. I have a few questions. First of all, I think you came into the year with quite a bit of backlog. It sounds like you don't have a lot of orders, I think that means you're probably seeing some cancellations. Could you just give her a sense, Steve, for how those cancellations are headed? Are they accelerating? Are they extending longer? I mean, any sort of, you know, read you have there, 'cause that would obviously determine your conviction in Q3 potentially being a bottom.
Steve Litchfield (CFO and Chief Corporate Strategy Officer)
Yeah. I mean, I guess the way I'd answer the question, we still do have very good backlog. We're still working on the booking side of the equation. That's you know, fortunately, lead times have come down. Customers are waiting longer, and with so much uncertainty kind of in the back half of the year, I think customers have they think lead times are really short now. In a lot of cases, they also know that plenty of guys have lots of inventory. They're waiting. That's been problematic. I wouldn't say that we've seen a ton of cancellations. We've certainly seen push outs and, you know, most of these orders are non-cancellable, non-returnable orders.
In most cases, they're not cancellations, but we certainly work with our customer base in order to kind of work with them on shipment dates.
Tore Svanberg (Managing Director)
Sounds good. Moving on to this whole topic about, you know, consumption versus inventory, and specifically for your broadband business, I think it, you know, it almost read like a half billion dollar run rate last year. Based on my math next quarter, maybe we're looking at, like, $160, $180. Obviously, it was way inflated, you know, back then, and it seems like it's pretty depressed right now. Any guesstimate on what the real sort of run rate could potentially be for that business?
Steve Litchfield (CFO and Chief Corporate Strategy Officer)
Obviously, that is the big question. I think, you know, we're wrestling with that. Kishore spoke a little bit earlier. I mean, you know, we have great relationships with these operators, with the telcos, and so we have, you know, pretty decent line item visibility. That being said, it is hard to tell right now exactly where that's gonna land. I mean, there's been a, you know, big build-up. Certain things going on in the market, like refurbishments and things like that we haven't seen in a while. Those naturally come back into play, but our guys have done this for years, and so I think we have a pretty good understanding of it. We're gonna continue to work diligently to kinda dig into what that number lands at.
I think we're confident, it sounds strange word, confident that we're under shipping demand. I mean, we know that there's a lot of inventory out there and has been for some time, we're getting through that, I think it's still gonna take a little bit more time, particularly on the broadband and connectivity side of the business.
Tore Svanberg (Managing Director)
Sounds good. Just last one for Kishore. Kishore, I know you can't talk about the Simo deal per se, but just thinking about longer term strategically, obviously, that asset was supposed to give you some storage technology, you know, to continue to improve your position, especially in infrastructure. How should we think about, you know, that now, you know, that you have terminated the transaction?
Kishore Seendripu (CEO)
You know, the termination of the transaction is pretty complex, and, you know, so, you know, not talking about that particular one, I do feel that, you know, we have the storage accelerators that we have been investing, and that's really for the enterprise market. Number one, enterprise appliance maker, leading Tier 1 player, is starting to ship. We expect that business to double next year and grow very, very strongly over the next four years. In fact, we have very strong visibility of it. I think that's the way we build into the market because the pure enterprise play, and that's how we enter the market. That's an organic path to get there.
On the dynamics of the Silicon Motion deal, those are very different dynamics, and they have got nothing to do with our technology and our strategic view of how we play in the market. Our entry into the roadmap will be following up our investments in accelerator technologies. Last year, at the Flash Memory Summit, we won the Best New Innovative Product in Storage category, right? I do believe that, you know, if you just fast forward another three years, our accelerator business should be anywhere between, you know, $30 million-$50 million revenue per year run rates based on a single Tier 1 customer. I don't think anything has changed.
Tore Svanberg (Managing Director)
Okay. Thank you.
Kishore Seendripu (CEO)
Anything has changed on the thesis on the value of the enterprise storage market.
Tore Svanberg (Managing Director)
Got it. Thank you.
Kishore Seendripu (CEO)
Yep.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Next question today is coming from Gary Mobley from Wells Fargo. Your line is now live.
Gary Mobley (Executive Director)
Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question. I see per your guidance, you're expecting, what, a $4 million-$5 million sequential decrease in your OpEx? I presume most of that's variable, a variable reduction. We just spoke about some structural changes that's taking place in broadband cable from slower net new subscriber additions, maybe some share loss to fixed wireless access and whatnot. What point does it make sense to rightsize the OpEx based on some of those structural changes to some of your larger markets?
Kishore Seendripu (CEO)
Okay. Yeah, I'll, Steve, why don't you start off, then I'll.
Steve Litchfield (CFO and Chief Corporate Strategy Officer)
I would just answer the bigger question. We announced last quarter that we were gonna see declines. We're expecting to exit the year closer to a $75 million-$76 million run rate. We've already taken some action earlier in the year, just kinda based on the whole industry downturn. I would expect to see some more improvements next year as well. I would expect OpEx to come down again in 2024, just based on kinda projects rolling off and just normal attrition there. I actually see continued improvement on the cost structure side, Kishore, you can speak to the, I think, it's the broadband portion of the question.
Kishore Seendripu (CEO)
Well, so Gary, you talk of the structural changes in the broadband, really, it's primarily like you mentioned, I feel constrained to the cable market. It's very, very clear that the cable market and subscriber base is under siege from multiple players, the fixed wireless access and the fiber deployments. I think that they'll continue to feel the pressure. On the cable side, the response has been to move to DOCSIS 4.0, right? These investment cycles last about seven years or so, new technology points, and they are largely behind us in terms of the bulk of our own investments in MaxLinear. I do not look at Wi-Fi as a cable-specific investment, right?
I think that structurally, the investment levels in cable go down, barring a new fork in the, you know, in the, in the cable industry's, you know, ability to compete. Generally, these have been seven-year cycles, and the bulk of the investment is behind. Likewise, our expectations or revenue growth in that sector is really going to come from silicon content increase and not from a pure broadband cable access revenues. It's a more a platform-level revenue, and we hope to maintain our revenues on a footprint basis, post this inventory burnout. You're absolutely right.
I think cable is the market area, we are looking at it very closely, we have told ourselves, well, this may be, you know, this may be the one of the more longer-lasting generations of cable for deployment. For us, the expenses in investment cable should significantly go down.
Gary Mobley (Executive Director)
Appreciate that color. I wanted to ask about the impact of some weak North American wireless infrastructure spending, as highlighted from some recent guidance and results from some of the larger infrastructure players. To what extent is that impacting your business as we look through the balance of the year or maybe even longer?
Kishore Seendripu (CEO)
Our, our big wireless infrastructure growth has really come from mostly coming from 5G rollouts, where wireless backhaul is the dominant backhaul mechanism, and that's really outside of, outside of North America and China. The North America slowdown does affect somewhat, but it's not a pronounced impact. Having said that, the wireless telcos, in general, whether their investments in fiber rollouts or fiber deployment, et cetera, I am sure that will also get impacted somewhat. For us, we don't have much exposure to that because we're starting off a smaller revenue base, and we are growing our revenue and design win share of that particular area of the market. There, we don't see any slowdown expectations on our fiber growth. The overall as a market, I do see a slowdown on the wireless telco carrier spend.
We just happen to be the ones that won't be as impacted because we are starting off a smaller base.
Gary Mobley (Executive Director)
Thanks again, guys.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Next question is coming from Suji Desilva from ROTH MKM. Your line is now live.
Suji Desilva (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Hi, Kishore. Hi, Steve. Since you're early in the earnings cycle and you guys have been through a lot of cycles, I just wanna start with a big, a high-level question. What feels most different about this cycle versus past cycles you've been through? I'm just curious to get your opinion there.
Kishore Seendripu (CEO)
Well, you know, as MaxLinear, we have been through two similar cycles, right? The outcomes were... It's a different phase. You know, I don't know how many of my peers will say this, but if you really look at the extent of the come down, because excess inventory channel, it almost feels like for a semiconductor company, it's kind of post-2008. I hate to say that, but I will say that, okay? The only difference is the macroeconomic conditions are not the same sentiment. That's the difference. For us, the cycles that we have been gone through have not been related to macro conditions or the semiconductor demand conditions. It's been through what kind of transformations MaxLinear was making in the public eye.
As we try to broaden and diversify our revenues and grow the company, we had to go through painful cycles of where the smaller TAMs we had to get out of and move towards bigger TAMs, and we went through revenue troughs, if you will. For us, this one feels similar. The company is going through sort of a transformation right now to position itself to go to, you know, $1 billion-$2 billion revenues. That transformation is once again happening in front of your public eyes.
Be it what happened with Silicon Motion, be it what happened with the acquisition we did with the Intel Connected Home assets, or our organic investments in wireless infrastructure or optical data centers, they are all manifestation of cycles that are very unique to MaxLinear, because you rarely come across a public company that's trying to grow, enter new markets from where it was never born in. There is not a peer to compare as a fresh company that went public in 2010, trying to do the things we are doing. Our challenges are unique to us. From my experience point of view, what's happening in terms of demand, it really feels like a post-2008 issue without the macroeconomic panic and fear that we had at the time. I hope that answers your question.
Maybe you were not expecting that answer, but that's how I look at the world. Okay.
Suji Desilva (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
I wasn't sure quite what to expect, so thanks for that. At the risk of sounding tone deaf, I'll also ask this question: You guys demonstrated the potential for strong debt capacity with the recent inorganic activity. I'm curious if, you know, thoughts of pursuing alternate acquisitions, where you are on that versus pausing, and what level of leverage you would consider in that pursuit?
Steve Litchfield (CFO and Chief Corporate Strategy Officer)
Yeah, look, I mean, we've always been an acquisitive company, and, you know, we're very excited about our organic growth potential ahead of us. We've also done lots of good acquisitions over the years, and we will certainly get back to that. We've got a lot of product areas that we're very interested in investing in on the infrastructure front, on the connectivity front, and even on some of the industrial efforts and power management and the like. We'll certainly continue to go down that path. I mean, the balance sheet is good, and so, a lot of opportunities there.
Kishore Seendripu (CEO)
Look, we evaluate every opportunity that comes our way, and we pursue them based on how it increases shareholder value, and we are not afraid to do what's in the long-term interest of the company.
Suji Desilva (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Can I sneak one in real quick? Kishore, have you seen the hyperscale guys redesigning and pausing rack designs based on Gen AI versus past AI efforts, or have you not seen that phenomenon?
Kishore Seendripu (CEO)
Look, I have not seen any such phenomenon, right? It's, it's a natural progression as far as the products we look at, where the data rates and speeds are increasing, in the same, you know, footprint, right? I, you know, I really think that AI just adds the number of interconnects, and the TAM dramatically will increase because that will become the big growth driver inside the interconnection side of the data center. I think the TAM forecast with AI will be lot more than what we were seeing in the data center without this sort of excitement that's built around ChatGPT and AI, right? AI was always there. It's just now there's a need for it that is suddenly, you know, exploding.
Suji Desilva (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Thanks, Kishore. Appreciate it, guys.
Kishore Seendripu (CEO)
Yep.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Next question today is coming from Richard Shannon from Craig-Hallum. Your line is now live.
Richard Shannon (Senior Research Analyst)
Hi, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. First one for Steve, probably more just tactically speaking here in the third quarter. I just want to get a sense of which segments you're expecting to do relatively better or worse, as you see this bottoming process come and, you know, manifest itself, hopefully in the fourth quarter, there are segments where you have incrementally more confidence in that. I can probably guess what the answer is, but I guess I'd just love to hear from Steve there first. Thanks.
Steve Litchfield (CFO and Chief Corporate Strategy Officer)
Look, I mean, Q3, I mean, we talked about each of the end markets being down. We had a very strong first half of the year with infrastructure, as expected, we're seeing a little moderation in the second half, just as that business is a little lumpier. As we look into 2024, I mean, you know, we do expect to see that recovery really across all of our end markets. You'll start to see that in industrial multimarket. You're going to see it in broadband and connectivity. I mean, we've got some underlying growth drivers with all of these. I mean, whether it be Wi-Fi wins or PON wins, you know, one of the things that we haven't talked much about, PON continues to do well. You know, despite the overall broadband environment, that's something that's doing well.
I mean, we're underexposed to it, so anything, you know, any incremental is a positive. We've got several other good growth drivers, such as Ethernet, that'll start to drive growth in 2024. I'm not going to get into guiding what, you know, Q4 looks like by end market.
Richard Shannon (Senior Research Analyst)
Okay, that's fair enough. Kishore, wanted to follow up on your comments about structural changes here in the cable TV market, and obviously, as we look forward to a next cycle here, you've obviously just mentioned you've already largely committed and finished your investments here as we get to DOCSIS 4.0. What's your feeling of the cable maker or cable operators, particularly in North America, about their interest in either accelerating or delaying DOCSIS 4.0 in response to these structural changes?
Kishore Seendripu (CEO)
It's very, very hard to say. They're also sitting in a lot of inventory and, the cable operators, and what we are seeing are slowdown of revenue is really reflective of, their own, you know, plans, right? To some degree here. I think the DOCSIS 4.0 will start deploying, in small quantities, and probably in 2025 is when it starts ramping, because the products are just available, barely, and then the platforms have been validated, and there will be announcements about, you know, we are, we are doing it, but really, the infrastructure spend has not happened on DOCSIS 4.0, and all of that has to come together. I think it's really a 2025 event for sort of a resumption of growth in cable to the higher performing platform.
The ASP is going to offset some of the decreases in the volumes and qualities, but the net effect of that is not clear yet. Okay.
Richard Shannon (Senior Research Analyst)
Okay, fair enough. That's all for me, guys. Thank you.
Kishore Seendripu (CEO)
Yep.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Next question is coming from Christopher Rolland from Susquehanna, your line is now live.
Christopher Rolland (Senior Equity Analyst)
Hey, guys. Thanks for the question. Just back to the inventory kind of burn situation here. Have you talked to your largest customers about how much inventory they have or what their inventory plans are? I mean, you know, for, like, broadband, for example, I got you guys at, like, call it $40 million, which is a third of what you were doing a year ago. Have you talked about planning and worked, you know, further out on what order trends might be like for them? Just kind of tying on to this as well, it doesn't seem like your competitor, you know, Broadcom, in the space, is having these inventory issues. Is it just a customer dynamic? You guys are tied to different customers or what's going on there?
Steve Litchfield (CFO and Chief Corporate Strategy Officer)
Yeah, so Chris, we certainly have very good visibility on channel inventory. So we, you know, we've been watching that for the past few quarters. We expect to see us continue to burn down that channel inventory over the next couple of quarters. I think, you know, with respect to Broadcom, I mean, they're the other big guy. I mean, clearly, we don't break out apples-to-apples comparisons, so I don't think you see this. I mean, they're seeing the same dynamics in these markets as we are. They've got a lot more exposure to PON, so it's a little different. They have a bigger Wi-Fi business. Again, you can't really compare apples to apples. You know, they're seeing that same softness in the areas where we see the softness. I would just reiterate that.
Christopher Rolland (Senior Equity Analyst)
Okay, that's fair. I guess, you know, if you do have a little bit of visibility from your guys, just talking about the snapback here, would you expect any segment beyond infra to be up year-over-year next year? How should we think about this snapback kind of longer term, and do you think we start getting super seasonality into March? Is that fair?
Steve Litchfield (CFO and Chief Corporate Strategy Officer)
Well, look, I don't want to get into guiding quarter by quarter over the next quarter, 6 quarters, but I mean, as we look out into 2024, I mean, I think Kishore and I have both talked a little bit about some of the growth drivers for next year. I mean, there's certainly going to be a recovery in all these markets. It's tough to forecast year-over-year just because kind of the way the shape of the year has gone, right? You started out the year on a much higher run rate, and so you're gonna end up exiting the year on a lower run rate. That has some effect. I mean, certainly, you're gonna start to see quarterly improvements, you know, off the bottom here, you know, hopefully, as we talked about in Q3, and some improvements.
Do we have seasonality? The answer is yes. I mean, we've historically always had a little bit of softness in the, in the March quarter as well as Q4 to some degree. Do we see that again? I mean, potentially, yes.
Christopher Rolland (Senior Equity Analyst)
I guess lastly for me, when it comes to PAM4, would you consider like a direct sale of the DSP business? Do you think that might be a better way to monetize it? Like, is there any hyperscale interest in just buying the part itself? It seems like, you know, going the road of engaging with cable makers and transceiver makers and, it seems like that that's a pretty big slog. Secondly, you know, on the AEC market, DSPs for AEC, any update there? Thanks.
Steve Litchfield (CFO and Chief Corporate Strategy Officer)
Look, first of all, I mean, as we talked about in our prepared remarks, we're very excited about the optical market, and we have been. We're seeing great traction. We're ahead of the competition with our 5nm products. I think we're better positioned than we ever have been in this market. We've got our second-generation solution. I think we're really excited. I think one of the things that's changed since last quarter, and you've seen it, and very closely, I mean, we're seeing the market. I mean, we're seeing a little more growth than even what we had expected, and that's driving a lot of our customer engagements as well. I mean, there's definitely a flurry of things going on. It's driving all the PAM4 design wins that we have.
It's with regard to the AEC market, I mean, that's definitely an emerging market that we've talked a little bit around. We absolutely are working with customers with AEC design wins. I think if I think about our own revenues, it's probably gonna be driven on our kind of PAM4 transceivers first and then AECs, because AECs are still a relatively nascent market as of yet. I mean, over the next couple of three years, we can certainly see it growing.
Kishore Seendripu (CEO)
I don't think the direct, sale of silicon to data center. For them, this is too puny to entertain such an engagement from a silicon perspective.
Christopher Rolland (Senior Equity Analyst)
Okay, understood. Thanks, Kishore.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Next question today is coming from Alek Valero from Loop Capital Markets. Your line is now live.
Alek Valero (Equity Research Associate)
Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question. Can you guys talk about your ability to access the scale that you would have gotten with the Silicon Motion deal, whether through future M&A or organic means?
Kishore Seendripu (CEO)
Yeah, could you repeat the question, please?
Alek Valero (Equity Research Associate)
For sure. Can you guys talk about your ability to access the scale that you would have gotten with the Silicon Motion deal? Like whether through future M&A or organic means.
Steve Litchfield (CFO and Chief Corporate Strategy Officer)
Yeah, yeah. Sure, of course. I mean, we're definitely, you know. We've done a great job over the last, whatever, five, 10 years, growing organically. We'll continue to do that. We'll definitely do more acquisitions. We've done them, I mean, even over the last three years. I mean, I think we've still more than doubled the size of the company. We'll be able to continue to do this. Balance sheet is still very good. We generate tons of cash. I mean, we are positioned very well to go off and do more acquisitions, as well as continue to grow organically. We compete head-to-head against big guys every day, and that's never been a deterrent. The innovative product technology, capability, engineering, capabilities that we have will continue to enable us to differentiate and drive more shareholder value.
Alek Valero (Equity Research Associate)
Awesome. Thank you for that. I have another question around generative AI, and I apologize if you might have addressed this beforehand. Are you guys experiencing any impact on your 800G 3 nm, getting to market or any increase in customer interest?
Kishore Seendripu (CEO)
Yeah. You know, you know, so far we have, we have discussed about 800Gb PAM4, 5 nanometer product and its traction. Really, the next generation of products is really, you know, the industry has a habit at OFC for us to launch new technologies and new products, but I really don't see anything grand or brand new coming up that will be absorbed anytime soon. I think the next leg of the optical investments or products is really in 200Gb per lambda, DSPs, and you should be looking for us to be an investor in their roadmap. I think that's, and we constantly evaluate the nodes, foundries, packaging technologies, and all the gamut of it, to build an extremely competitive, low-power product, so, and cost competitive product.
I think that, for now, we're in a good place, and we need to make sure we get our fair share of the market in the data center market. Okay.
Alek Valero (Equity Research Associate)
Awesome. Thank you, guys.
Kishore Seendripu (CEO)
Yeah. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. We've reached the end of our question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over to Kishore Seendripu for further closing comments.
Kishore Seendripu (CEO)
Well, thank you, operator. I just want to let everyone know that this quarter we will be participating in the Virtual Oppenheimer Technology, Internet, and Communications Conference on August 9th, the Virtual Needham Semiconductor and SemiCap Conference on August 23rd, the Deutsche Bank Technology Conference on August 38th in Dana Point, and the Benchmark TMT Conference on September 13th in New York. With that, I want to thank you again all for joining us today, and we look forward to reporting on our progress to you next quarter. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference and webcast. You may disconnect your line at this time and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.