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KM

Kindly MD, Inc. (NAKA)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 revenue was $0.39M, down 40% year over year (Q3 2024: $0.65M) and slightly below S&P Global consensus; net loss was $86.0M, or $(0.42) per share, driven primarily by non-cash charges related to the Nakamoto acquisition and bitcoin revaluation .
  • The company completed its merger with Nakamoto, advanced its bitcoin treasury strategy (5,765 BTC purchased; 5,398 BTC held as of Nov 12), and closed strategic investments in Metaplanet ($30M), Treasury BV ($15M), and FUTURE Holdings AG ($6M) .
  • Total operating expenses increased to $10.8M (vs. $1.7M YoY) primarily from SG&A tied to the bitcoin strategy; loss from operations was $(10.4)M .
  • Versus S&P Global consensus: EPS (-$0.01*) and revenue ($0.400M*)—the quarter posted a material EPS miss and slight revenue miss; limited analyst coverage (1 EPS estimate, 2 revenue estimates) suggests early-stage estimate formation*.
  • Potential stock catalysts: execution on bitcoin-native operating platform (media/advisory/financial services), accretive ATM usage, and clarity on recurring-revenue acquisitions to fund ongoing BTC accumulation .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Completed merger and delivered on stated three-part plan: merge, establish BTC treasury, and begin strategic investing. “We’ve executed against every goal put in place this quarter” — David Bailey, CEO .
  • Built BTC-native operating foundation: 5,765 BTC acquired (weighted average price $118,204.88); 5,398 BTC held as of Nov 12; selective BTC allocation for strategic investments to compound long-term shareholder value — Tyler Evans, CIO .
  • Strengthened leadership and capability set with Amanda Fabiano (ex-Galaxy, ex-Fidelity) appointed COO to lead strategic M&A and platform build-out .

What Went Wrong

  • Revenue decreased to $0.39M from $0.65M YoY; healthcare business remains small while broader strategy ramps .
  • Total operating expenses rose to $10.8M vs. $1.7M YoY (bitcoin strategy SG&A), driving a $(10.4)M operating loss .
  • Net loss of $86.0M included large non-cash items: $59.8M loss on acquisition of Nakamoto, $22.1M unrealized bitcoin loss, plus $1.4M realized bitcoin loss to fund investments .

Financial Results

Headline P&L vs Prior Year and Prior Quarter

MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD)$647,867 $408,527 $388,209
Total Operating Expenses ($USD)$1,676,250 $2,800,018 $10,800,000
Loss from Operations ($USD)$(1,049,818) $(2,391,491) $(10,405,522)
Net Loss ($USD)$(1,014,147) $(2,413,787) $(86,035,808)
Diluted EPS ($USD)$(0.17) $(0.35) $(0.42)
Net Income Margin %(156.6%) (590.9%) (22,171.7%)

Notes: Net income margin % calculated from cited revenue and net loss.

Actual vs S&P Global Consensus (Q3 2025)

MetricConsensusActualSurprise
Revenue ($USD)$400,200*$388,209 -$12,0k (miss)*
EPS ($USD)-$0.01*$(0.42) -$0.41 (miss, significant)*

Values with asterisk retrieved from S&P Global. Limited coverage: EPS estimates (n=1*), revenue estimates (n=2*).

Segment and Other Items

ItemQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Healthcare Revenue ($USD)$647,867 $408,527 $388,209
Unrealized Loss on Digital Assets ($USD)$0 $(39,019) $(22,066,010)
Realized Loss on Digital Assets ($USD)$0 $0 $(1,411,204)
Unrealized Gain on Investments ($USD)$0 $0 $930,431

Balance Sheet and KPIs

KPIValue
BTC purchased (cumulative)5,765 BTC; weighted avg price $118,204.88
BTC held (as of Nov 12, 2025)5,398 BTC
BTC allocated to strategic investments367 BTC
Enterprise Value (as of Sep 30, 2025)$635,885,949 (Market Cap $457,053,532 + Notes Payable $203,017,500 – Cash $24,185)
Shares outstanding427,152,834 (Sep 30, 2025) ; 439,850,889 (Nov 14, 2025)
Prefunded warrants outstanding84,502,113 (Sep 30, 2025) ; 71,704,975 (Nov 14, 2025)

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
RevenueFY/Q3 2025Not provided Not provided Maintained (no formal guidance)
Margins/OpExFY/Q3 2025Not provided Not provided Maintained (no formal guidance)
OI&E / Tax rateFY/Q3 2025Not provided Not provided Maintained (no formal guidance)
Segment-specificFY/Q3 2025Not provided Not provided Maintained (no formal guidance)
Capital actionsOngoing$5B ATM program established $5.6M raised at $4.15 avg price Active use (accretive only)

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Bitcoin treasury strategyInitiated via proposed Nakamoto merger; 21 BTC purchased; adoption of fair value accounting (ASU 2023-08) Post-merger platform build; 5,765 BTC accumulated; strategic allocation to investments; aim to compound shareholder value Scaling up rapidly
Strategic investments/M&APIPE and convertible debenture plans; media/advisory platform contemplated via BTC, Inc. agreements Call option right to purchase BTC Inc; pathway to acquire UTXO Management GP; investments in Metaplanet ($30M), Treasury BV ($15M), FUTURE Holdings ($6M) Execution underway
Healthcare operations & payer mixInsurance reimbursement growth; revenue decline due to cash-pay reductions and site closure Healthcare revenue remains modest; overall revenue down YoY Mixed; payer shift ongoing
OpEx / SG&AHigher public-company costs; R&D curtailed Significant SG&A tied to bitcoin strategy; total OpEx $10.8M Up materially
Accounting/controlsMaterial weaknesses acknowledged; fair value for crypto assets adopted Large non-cash acquisition and crypto remeasurement impacts Elevated complexity

Management Commentary

  • “We’ve executed against every goal put in place this quarter, and created a strong foundation to build a long-term Bitcoin treasury company designed to thrive through every market cycle.” — David Bailey, Chairman & CEO .
  • “Our Bitcoin treasury isn’t a passive reserve. It’s a strategic tool… we aim to compound long-term shareholder value while reinforcing the foundation of our business.” — Tyler Evans, CIO .
  • “We believe our investments will expand the scope and resilience of our business, adding operating revenue, talent, and market reach… building the foundation necessary to translate that expected growth into sustainable returns for shareholders.” — Amanda Fabiano, COO .

Q&A Highlights

Not available; an earnings call transcript for Q3 2025 was not published in the document set reviewed.

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus for Q3 2025: revenue $0.400M*, EPS -$0.01*; limited coverage (Revenue estimates: 2*, EPS estimates: 1*). Actual revenue $0.388M and EPS $(0.42) reflected a slight revenue miss and a significant EPS miss versus consensus*.
  • Expect near-term adjustments to Street models to incorporate acquisition accounting impacts and bitcoin fair value remeasurement effects (unrealized loss $22.1M) that materially drove GAAP net loss .

Values with asterisk retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Execution on BTC-native platform is the core narrative: merger closed; sizable BTC treasury; clear pipeline for media/advisory/financial services assets .
  • GAAP loss heavily influenced by non-cash items (acquisition accounting and BTC fair value marks); underlying healthcare revenue remains small and declining YoY .
  • Operating expense step-up (to $10.8M) reflects the strategic pivot; investors should watch SG&A scalability and operating leverage as acquisitions integrate .
  • Capital flexibility via $5B ATM (already used accretively) and prior financings supports continued BTC accumulation and strategic investments .
  • KPI focus: BTC units held (5,398), deployment pace, and average cost basis will be key to treasury value preservation through cycles .
  • With limited Street coverage and large non-cash swings, expect estimate volatility; near-term sentiment likely tied to clarity on recurring-revenue acquisitions to fund BTC growth .
  • Monitoring items: completion of call option paths (BTC Inc/UTXO), additional international BTC-treasury investments, and integration milestones that translate strategy into revenue and cash flow .