Executive Summary

Q1 2025 was a clear beat: revenue $50.01M (+14% YoY, +11% QoQ) vs S&P Global consensus $44.40M; diluted EPS $1.51 vs $0.64 consensus, driven by stronger Canada and higher‑margin international mix; adjusted EBITDA $8.21M with 16% margin . Revenue/EPS consensus values from S&P Global.*
Management raised the high end of full‑year adjusted EBITDA guidance to $20–$24M (from $20–$23M) while maintaining FY revenue at $165–$175M; FY free cash flow after NCI raised to $7–$11M (from $7–$10M) .
Q2 2025 outlook calls for a seasonal trough: revenue $26–$29M, adjusted gross margin 37–39%, and adjusted EBITDA of $(2)M to breakeven, reflecting Canadian spring break‑up and timing of international work .
Catalysts: sustained share gains and SPE frac technology adoption in Canada, continued North Sea/Middle East traction, and capital allocation optionality (M&A or potential buybacks) vs. headwinds from tariffs, FX, and softer commodity tape into 2H .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Beat across key metrics: “first quarter revenue of $50 million exceeded the high end of our guided range... adjusted gross margin of 44% exceeded the high end… adjusted EBITDA of $8.2 million exceeded our estimated range” .
- Canada outperformance and tech adoption: Canadian revenue +19% YoY in Q1 as more Montney operators adopt NCS single‑point entry frac technology with strong production results and flexibility .
- Higher‑margin mix and balance sheet strength: international activity (Middle East/North Sea) supported margin expansion; cash $23.0M, net cash $15.4M, total liquidity ~$50M at quarter‑end .
What Went Wrong
- U.S. softness and timing: U.S. revenue fell 13% sequentially; certain U.S. frac systems projects slipped into Q2; international revenue fell 34% sequentially on Middle East tracer timing .
- Working capital drag: operating cash flow was a use of $(1.65)M, reflecting bonus payments and cash‑settled awards; free cash flow less NCI was $(2.10)M .
- Pricing/tariff risk: management flagged a more challenging environment to pass through steel/China tariff‑related costs amid lower commodity prices; pricing discipline maintained but competitive responses uncertain .

Financial Results

Overall financials (oldest → newest):

Metric	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Revenue ($M)	44.01	45.00	50.01
Revenue YoY (%)	15%	28%	14%
Diluted EPS ($)	1.60	1.32	1.51
Gross Margin (%)	41%	42%	42%
Adjusted Gross Margin (%)	42%	43%	44%
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	7.08	8.21	8.21
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)	16%	18%	16%
Net Income attrib. to NCS ($M)	4.15	3.47	4.06
Cash & Equivalents ($M)	15.33	25.88	22.99
Total Debt ($M)	8.60	8.10	7.60
Net Cash ($M)	6.73 (calc)	17.78 (calc)	15.40 (text)

Consensus vs actual (Q1 2025):

Metric	Consensus	Actual	Beat/Miss
Revenue ($M)	44.40*	50.01	Beat
Diluted EPS ($)	0.64*	1.51	Beat

Values with asterisk (*) retrieved from S&P Global.

Geographic revenue mix (oldest → newest):

Geography ($M)	Q1 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
United States	10.01	10.72	9.37
Canada	31.67	29.84	37.72
Other Countries	2.18	4.44	2.92
Total	43.86	45.00	50.01

Product vs services (oldest → newest):

Revenue Type ($M)	Q1 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Product Sales	31.76	30.59	35.07
Services	12.10	14.41	14.94
Total	43.86	45.00	50.01

Liquidity and cash flow KPIs (Q1 seasonality):

KPI	Q1 2024	Q1 2025
Cash from Operations ($M)	(1.88)	(1.65)
Free Cash Flow ($M)	(2.02)	(2.10)
Cash & Equivalents ($M)	14.00	22.99
Total Debt ($M)	—	7.60
Net Cash ($M)	—	15.40

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Revenue (Total)	Q2 2025	—	$26–$29M	New
Canada Revenue	Q2 2025	—	$12–$13M	New
U.S. Revenue	Q2 2025	—	$10.5–$11.5M	New
International Revenue	Q2 2025	—	$3.5–$4.5M	New
Adjusted Gross Margin	Q2 2025	—	37–39%	New
Adjusted EBITDA	Q2 2025	—	$(2)M to breakeven	New
D&A	Q2 2025	—	≈$1.4M	New
Revenue (Total)	FY 2025	$165–$175M (Mar-11)	$165–$175M	Maintained
Adjusted EBITDA	FY 2025	$20–$23M (Mar-11)	$20–$24M	High end raised
Free Cash Flow after NCI	FY 2025	$7–$10M (Mar-11)	$7–$11M	High end raised
Capex (gross)	FY 2025	$1.5–$2.0M (Mar-11)	$1.5–$2.0M (implied; no change)	Maintained

Context: Management embeds known U.S. tariffs (steel/China) and a modestly weaker commodity backdrop; expects 2H‑weighted EBITDA and FCF, and flags elevated uncertainty from trade, geopolitics and potential OPEC+ actions .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q‑2 and Q‑1)	Current Period (Q1 2025)	Trend
International expansion (ME/North Sea)	Q3: ME tracer and North Sea frac supported growth ; Q4: record international revenue; royalty income accrual change .	High‑margin international mix aided Q1 margins; sequential decline on ME tracer timing; Q2 intl guide $3.5–$4.5M; North Sea weighted to 2H .	Positive LT; near‑term timing volatility
Canada activity & SPE adoption	Q3: seasonal ramp; higher frac systems ; Q4: no typical holiday slowdown .	Canada +19% YoY; SPE adoption in Montney; Q2 break‑up seasonal trough expected .	Market share gains; seasonal dip in Q2
U.S. product sales (Repeat Precision)	Q3: higher plugs/guns in U.S. ; Q4: higher U.S. product sales .	Some Q1 projects deferred to Q2; StageSaver/dissolvable plugs converting trials to orders—expected strength through 2025 .	Improving pipeline
Macro/tariffs/pricing	Q4 guide excluded trade impacts; FX headwind noted .	Known tariffs now in guidance; lower commodity prices; harder to pass through costs; pricing discipline reiterated .	Risk rising; potential margin pressure
Royalty income cadence	Q4: royalty accrual change; ~$1M/quarter normalized from Q1 .	Q1 other income $0.9M primarily royalties; Oman TSA ended Nov-2024 .	Normalizing as telegraphed
Capital allocation	Q4: strong balance sheet; positive FCF .	Evaluating M&A; if not, potential buybacks/return of capital .	Optionality increasing

Management Commentary

“Our first quarter revenue of $50 million exceeded the high end of our guided range… our adjusted gross margin of 44%… [and] adjusted EBITDA of $8.2 million exceeded our estimated range.” — Ryan Hummer, CEO .
“Q1 revenue in Canada of $38 million increased by 19%… as more operators in the Montney have adopted our single‑point entry frac technology and have experienced strong production results and increased operational flexibility.” .
“We are maintaining our expectation for annual revenue of $165 million to $175 million… [and] modified our adjusted EBITDA range to $20 million to $24 million… We expect free cash flow after distributions… of $7 million to $11 million.” .
“We maintain a strong balance sheet and liquidity position… cash balance of $23 million… total liquidity… $50 million.” .

Q&A Highlights

Capacity and infrastructure: No near‑term capacity constraints; outsourced model supports growth; likely to add U.K. entity as North Sea grows and expand in‑country presence in ME as scale builds .
Macro cadence: With WTI “5 handle,” expect activity to pull back first among privates/smaller publics; NCS portfolio geared to customer efficiency/value, but not immune to lower activity .
U.S. product sales outlook: Q1 deferrals move to Q2; successful trials for StageSaver and dissolvables converting to recurring orders; expect stronger U.S. product sales through 2025 .
Q2 international mix: ME well construction plus tracer activity; North Sea opportunities more 2H‑weighted .
Pricing/tariffs: Harder to pass through steel/China tariff costs in softer commodity tape; will be disciplined and avoid leading the market down .
Capital deployment: Actively evaluating tactical M&A; absent attractive deals, Board could consider buybacks/returns of capital .

Estimates Context

Q1 2025: Revenue $50.01M vs $44.40M consensus (beat); Diluted EPS $1.51 vs $0.64 consensus (beat). Consensus from S&P Global.* Actuals per company press release .
FY 2025: Company maintains revenue $165–$175M and raises adjusted EBITDA high end to $20–$24M ; S&P Global FY 2025 consensus revenue $176.6M* and EPS $3.88*, suggesting street may need to recalibrate mix (2H‑weighted EBITDA/FCF, tariff/FX headwinds) while acknowledging Q1 strength and maintained top‑line guide .
Values marked with asterisk (*) retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Strong operational beat (revenue/EPS/EBITDA) on Canada share gains and high‑margin international work; Q1 is the strongest quarter since Q1’20 .
Near‑term setup: Q2 seasonal trough (low revenue, breakeven EBITDA) before 2H weighting resumes—watch international timing (ME/North Sea) and Canadian recovery post break‑up .
FY posture constructive: Revenue guide intact; EBITDA high end raised; FCF after NCI high end raised—balance sheet optionality intact .
Monitor pricing power: Management flagged tariff pass‑through challenges in a softer oil tape—margin resilience rests on mix, efficiencies, and disciplined pricing .
U.S. product sales poised to improve as deferred projects land and Repeat Precision’s StageSaver/dissolvables scale from successful trials .
International remains a structural growth vector, albeit lumpy; North Sea weighted to 2H; ME programs ongoing .
Capital allocation optionality (M&A vs buybacks) could support multiple/returns if organic opportunities slow amid a softer macro .

All company figures and quotes are sourced from NCSM’s Q1 2025 press release and 8‑K, Q1 2025 earnings call transcript, and prior quarter releases/calls: **[1692427_bd0e3ab9656e46aea11e65eec587095f_0]** **[1692427_bd0e3ab9656e46aea11e65eec587095f_1]** **[1692427_bd0e3ab9656e46aea11e65eec587095f_2]** **[1692427_bd0e3ab9656e46aea11e65eec587095f_3]** **[1692427_bd0e3ab9656e46aea11e65eec587095f_4]** **[1692427_bd0e3ab9656e46aea11e65eec587095f_7]** **[1692427_bd0e3ab9656e46aea11e65eec587095f_8]** **[1692427_bd0e3ab9656e46aea11e65eec587095f_9]** **[1692427_bd0e3ab9656e46aea11e65eec587095f_10]** **[1692427_bd0e3ab9656e46aea11e65eec587095f_13]** **[1692427_bd0e3ab9656e46aea11e65eec587095f_14]** **[1692427_0001437749-25-013867_ex_758119.htm:8]** **[1692427_NCSM_3424755_1]** **[1692427_NCSM_3424755_3]** **[1692427_NCSM_3424755_4]** **[1692427_NCSM_3424755_5]** **[1692427_NCSM_3424755_6]** **[1692427_NCSM_3424755_7]** **[1692427_NCSM_3424755_8]** **[1692427_NCSM_3424755_9]** **[1692427_NCSM_3424755_11]** **[1692427_NCSM_3424755_12]** **[1692427_NCSM_3424755_13]** **[1692427_3456ab4e114a423da76a8adf1bc3a004_0]** **[1692427_3456ab4e114a423da76a8adf1bc3a004_2]** **[1692427_3456ab4e114a423da76a8adf1bc3a004_9]** **[1692427_3456ab4e114a423da76a8adf1bc3a004_14]** **[1692427_3456ab4e114a423da76a8adf1bc3a004_16]** **[1692427_NCSM_3420036_3]** **[1692427_NCSM_3420036_5]** **[1692427_f6b5cd8d57134c3db45d37a6d99dce40_0]** **[1692427_f6b5cd8d57134c3db45d37a6d99dce40_1]** **[1692427_f6b5cd8d57134c3db45d37a6d99dce40_9]** **[1692427_f6b5cd8d57134c3db45d37a6d99dce40_15]** **[1692427_f6b5cd8d57134c3db45d37a6d99dce40_18]**.
Consensus estimates marked with asterisk are retrieved from S&P Global.

NCS Multistage Holdings, Inc. (NCSM)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary