Q2 2024 Earnings Summary
- Newmont is exceeding its synergy targets from the Newcrest acquisition, achieving $205 million in synergies so far and on track to reach a $335 million run rate by the end of the year, well ahead of the initial $500 million commitment.
- The company is committed to returning capital to shareholders, having already returned approximately $540 million through dividends and share repurchases, and plans to repurchase $1 billion in shares and reduce debt by $1 billion using proceeds from divestments of non-core assets.
- Newmont expects improved operational performance in the second half of the year, with higher production volumes, lower unit costs, and increased free cash flow generation, positioning the company for strong financial results.
- Significant reclamation expenses and working capital outflows are expected in the second half of the year, totaling about $400-$450 million, which may pressure cash flows.
- Cost reduction and synergy targets heavily rely on higher production volumes in Q4 and synergies that may not fully materialize until 2025, posing execution risks to meeting cost guidance. ,
- The company's capital allocation strategy involves considerable share buybacks and debt reduction, which, along with uncertain proceeds from planned asset sales, could strain financial flexibility amid substantial upcoming expenditures. , ,
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Asset Divestitures Progress
Q: What's the status of asset sales and timings?
A: Asset sales are progressing well, with multiple interested parties involved. For Akyem, they are at the end of Phase 2, evaluating bids from seven parties after receiving interest from 20 in Phase 1. The North American assets have concluded Phase 1 with around 24 bids submitted, and are moving into Phase 2. Telfer is also progressing well, with confidence in the process. The goal is to complete the divestitures within 12 months, by March 2025. -
Share Buyback Plans
Q: How should we view the share buyback going forward?
A: The company initiated buybacks earlier due to the strong gold price environment, operational visibility for the second half, and confidence in proceeds from divestments. The pace of future buybacks will depend on free cash flow and divestiture proceeds. The initial $1 billion buyback is part of their commitment, and they may consider extending the program with the Board as they approach that mark. -
Use of Divestiture Proceeds
Q: Will divestiture proceeds include recent noncore sales?
A: The $2 billion target from divestments excludes proceeds from recent noncore equity sales like Lundin Gold and Batu Hijau. The commitment is to generate at least $2 billion from the sale of the seven noncore assets currently being divested. -
$130 Million Synergies Breakdown
Q: What's the breakdown of the $130 million in synergies?
A: The majority of the $130 million in synergies will come from supply chain optimizations and operational improvements, especially evident in Q4 and into 2025. There's minimal remaining in G&A savings. The operations will start contributing to synergies in Q4, but significant benefits will materialize in 2025. -
Penasquito Non-Gold Production
Q: How will Penasquito's non-gold metals perform in H2?
A: Penasquito is mining in the Chile Colorado pit, which is richer in zinc and lead, for the first three quarters, leading to higher non-gold metal production. They expect to return to the Penasco pit in Q4, resulting in higher gold grades. Non-gold metals may continue to perform well if mill performance remains strong in Q3. -
Lihir Autoclave Shutdown Impact
Q: How will Lihir shutdown affect production?
A: The largest autoclave at Lihir, representing 40% of throughput, will be down for 120 days starting August 1. The other three autoclaves will continue operating. This will impact production mainly in Q3 and early Q4, with expectations of higher output in Q4 once the autoclave is back online. The production weighting for the year isn't far off being 50-50 between halves. -
Reclamation Spending Outlook
Q: Are there significant future reclamation spends?
A: Beyond Yanacocha, which has increased spending to about $600 million in 2024 and higher in 2025, no other significant reclamation expenditures are expected. Annual reclamation outflows are anticipated to return to historical levels of $200–300 million starting from 2028–2029. Other mines have significantly lower reclamation liabilities compared to Yanacocha. -
Working Capital Changes
Q: How will working capital evolve in H2?
A: Free cash flow is expected to improve in the second half. Yanacocha will have $400–450 million in reclamation spending in H2, more weighted towards Q4. Lihir experienced a $75 million working capital impact in Q2 due to stockpile adjustments related to purchase price accounting, which is expected to unwind as production ramps up in Q4. -
Tax Payments and Higher Gold Prices
Q: Will higher gold prices affect tax payments?
A: Tax payments will start accruing in arrears going forward. If higher gold prices sustain, there may be catch-up payments in future quarters to account for differences between budgeted and realized prices. -
Depreciation Rates on Newcrest Assets
Q: Are depreciation rates on Newcrest assets stable?
A: Depreciation rates are generally settled with only slight variability due to purchase price accounting adjustments. You can use Q2 rates as a guideline moving forward.
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