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    NEWMONT Corp /DE/ (NEM)

    NEM Q2 2025: Beats output, prioritizes buybacks, flags H2 capex drag

    Reported on Jul 25, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$61.51Last close (Jul 24, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$63.88Open (Jul 25, 2025)
    Price Change
    $2.37(+3.85%)
    • Shareholder-Friendly Capital Allocation: Management emphasized prioritizing share buybacks over acquisitions, signaling a commitment to returning capital to shareholders and reinforcing a shareholder-focused, financially disciplined approach.
    • Robust Production Performance & Resilient Guidance: The Q&A highlighted that production outperformed expectations in Q2 and despite anticipated grade transitions in key mines, the company remains on track to meet its full-year guidance, underscoring operational resilience.
    • Significant Operational & Efficiency Enhancements: Discussions on productivity improvements—such as a 10% uplift at Boddington from their autonomous haul fleet initiative—demonstrate effective cost control and enhanced operational efficiency that can drive future profitability.
    • Red Chris Safety Incident: The fall of ground at Red Chris not only disrupted operations and suspended work at the site but also raised concerns over safety and operational recovery timelines, potentially leading to unexpected costs.
    • Declining Production Outlook: Several key assets, notably Cadia and Penasquito, are expected to experience lower ore grades and reduced production in the second half of the year, which could impact overall revenue and margins.
    • Increased H2 Sustaining Capital Expenditure: A deliberate shift of capital spending into the second half—including higher sustaining capital, reclamation, and other maintenance projects—might pressure free cash flow and strain financial performance.
    MetricYoY ChangeReason

    Total Revenue

    +21% YoY (from $4,402 million to $5,317 million)

    **The increase in total revenue is largely driven by stronger core performance—primarily robust gold sales—and favorable market pricing, while the strategic divestiture of non‐core assets helped streamline the revenue mix. This reinforces the focus on core operations for future periods. **

    Gold Sales

    +26% YoY (from $3,623 million to $4,582 million)

    **Gold sales saw a substantial increase mainly due to higher average realized gold prices, similar to trends seen in previous quarters where price improvements offset lower ounce volumes, indicating continued strength in core asset performance and positive market conditions. **

    Held for Sale – CC&V

    Dropped from $78 million to $0

    **The revenue from CC&V was eliminated as a result of its completed divestiture in Q1 2025, consistent with the portfolio optimization program that targeted non-core assets to better focus on the Tier 1 portfolio. **

    Held for Sale – Musselwhite

    Dropped from $132 million to $0

    **The Musselwhite segment was sold to Orla Mining, which resulted in its removal from the revenue mix. This divestiture underscores the company’s strategy to exit non-core operations and concentrate on high-performing segments. **

    Held for Sale – Porcupine

    Decreased from $206 million to $32 million

    **The marked reduction in Porcupine’s revenue is attributable to the divestiture transaction finalized in early Q2025, which drastically reduced its revenue contribution as part of the ongoing portfolio optimization. **

    Held for Sale – Élénore

    Dropped from $147 million to $0

    **The complete removal of Élénore revenue reflects its sale under the company’s strategic divestment program, indicating a decisive move away from non-core asset exposure to enhance focus on core, high-performance areas. **

    Key Geographic Contributions

    N/A (Peñasquito: $815M, Nevada Gold Mines: $783M, Ahafo: $657M)

    **Strong contributions from Peñasquito, Nevada Gold Mines, and Ahafo highlight the robust performance of core geographic operations, which helped drive overall revenue growth even as non-core segments were divested, positioning the company well for sustained performance. **

    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Gold Production

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance (no numeric value provided in Q1) N/A

    Produced 1,500,000 ounces in Q2 2025

    no prior guidance

    Copper Production

    FY 2025

    no specific guidance beyond weighting at Cadia

    Produced 36,000 tonnes in Q2 2025

    no prior guidance

    Gold All-In Sustaining Costs

    FY 2025

    $1,651 per ounce

    $1,593 per ounce

    lowered

    Free Cash Flow

    FY 2025

    Continued generation expected (qualitative guidance)

    $1.7 billion

    no prior guidance

    Capital Allocation

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance N/A

    Committed to FY 2025 guidance with a strong balance sheet, funding projects and returning capital

    no prior guidance

    Shareholder Returns

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance N/A

    $0.25 per share dividend and $2.8 billion in share repurchases YTD with an additional $3 billion repurchase program

    no prior guidance

    Sustaining Capital Expenditures

    FY 2025

    Expected to increase in Q2 relative to Q1

    Expected to increase in the second half of 2025 compared to the first half

    no change

    Debt Management

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance N/A

    Outstanding principal balance of $7.4 billion as of June 30, 2025

    no prior guidance

    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Capital Allocation and Shareholder Returns

    Previous periods consistently emphasized disciplined capital allocation, debt reduction, and shareholder returns. Q1 2025 highlighted significant share repurchases and debt reduction. Q4 2024 focused on predictable dividends and share repurchase programs. Q3 2024 underscored returning capital through repurchases and dividends.

    Q2 2025 reinforced the strategy with a strong internal focus on buying back stock, debt retirement, and an approved additional $3 billion repurchase program.

    Consistent focus on returning capital and strengthening the balance sheet, with an enhanced commitment in Q2 2025 reflected by a broader repurchase program and continued debt reduction.

    Production Performance and Guidance

    Earlier periods consistently reported steady production levels and detailed guidance. Q1 2025 and Q3 2024 provided comprehensive guidance on gold, copper, and other metals. Q4 2024 elaborated on exceeding guidance targets and maintaining annual averages.

    Q2 2025 reported strong operational results with solid production performance, while noting site‐specific adjustments (e.g. Cadia and Penasquito) and cautious second‐half expectations.

    Steady production remains a theme, yet there is more nuanced caution in Q2 2025 due to transitional issues at some sites. The company continues to meet full-year targets amid operational adjustments.

    Operational Efficiency and Cost Discipline

    Consistent across periods, Q1 2025 stressed safety, productivity, and cost discipline. Q4 2024 focused on improving cost structures and normalizing sustaining capital spend. Q3 2024 detailed synergies and cost management efforts from integration.

    In Q2 2025, emphasis was placed on cost discipline, productivity enhancements, and operating efficiently, with costs tracking to guidance.

    There is a continuous emphasis on operational efficiency and cost management, with evolving measures to improve productivity and better control costs.

    Sustaining Capital Expenditure Pressures

    Previously, Q1 2025 noted a lighter first-quarter spend with expectations to ramp up. Q4 2024 and Q3 2024 reported elevated sustaining capital levels (around $1.8 billion) and significant reinvestments, especially at Cadia.

    In Q2 2025, sustaining capital expenditures are highlighted as being 57% weighted to the second half, with targeted investments at key sites such as Cadia and Tanami.

    Persistent high pressures remain, but the timing is becoming more strategically phased. The focus has shifted to precise scheduling of expenditures to balance cost with production needs.

    Cost Pressures: Inflation, Tariffs, and Input Costs

    Earlier calls provided detailed breakdowns: Q1 2025 outlined impacts on labor, consumables, and tariffs ; Q3 2024 discussed rising contracted labor costs and sustained input pressures ; Q4 2024 mentioned elevated costs and normalization efforts.

    In Q2 2025, management noted that cost expectations—including fuel, energy, materials and higher taxes/royalties—are largely in line with prior assumptions, despite an elevated gold price environment.

    Ongoing cost pressures remain a feature. While detailed breakdowns were prominent in earlier periods, Q2 2025 reflects a stabilization in assumptions with a modest shift toward managing higher taxes and royalties.

    Operational Risks and Production Challenges

    Previous periods saw a mix of progress and setbacks. Q1 2025 emphasized safety culture improvements and stable performance. Q3 2024 noted a tragic fatality and significant safety incidents along with production challenges at key sites. Q4 2024 discussed integration issues and production stabilization efforts.

    Q2 2025 detailed specific safety incidents (e.g. fall of ground at Red Chris) and production adjustments at sites like Cadia and Penasquito.

    There is persistent focus on safety and managing production risks. Although operational improvements continue, Q2 2025 shows more immediate incident reporting and challenges, indicating an ongoing need for risk mitigation and process refinement.

    Growth Projects and Expansion Initiatives

    Recurring updates: Q1 2025 highlighted progress in Ahafo North, Tanami expansion, Red Chris, and Cadia developments. Q3 2024 and Q4 2024 provided detailed project milestones including panel cave developments and feasibility studies for projects like Red Chris and Yanacocha.

    Q2 2025 confirmed progress on Tanami Expansion 2, Ahafo North nearing first gold, continued Cadia development, and advancement of a feasibility study for Red Chris.

    The commitment to growth remains robust, with current updates showing refined execution and risk management. The project pipeline is actively advancing while maintaining disciplined capital allocation.

    Autonomous Technology Adoption

    Earlier periods had little or indirect reference: Q4 2024 mentioned Cadia’s role in block caving and automation , while Q1 and Q3 2024 did not address autonomous tech.

    Q2 2025 introduced explicit adoption at Boddington, noting an autonomous haul fleet that has delivered a 10% uplift in productivity.

    This is a new emerging focus. Autonomous technology adoption has clearly shifted from peripheral or indirect mentions to a highlighted initiative with demonstrated productivity benefits.

    Limited Long-Term Guidance Visibility

    Previously, Q4 2024 and Q3 2024 addressed limited long-term guidance with plans to focus on 2025 and build for 2026. Q1 2025 did not emphasize this topic as strongly.

    Q2 2025 does not specifically mention long-term guidance visibility.

    The visibility concern is de-emphasized in Q2 2025, suggesting a shift away from articulating long‐term forecasts as management focuses on near-term stabilization and portfolio understanding.

    Dependence on Elevated Gold Prices

    Previously, Q1 2025 stressed that operations would perform irrespective of high gold prices. Q4 2024 highlighted robust free cash flow and dividends despite high prices. Q3 2024 discussed the correlation between production costs and gold prices.

    Q2 2025 noted that while elevated gold prices are beneficial, they come with higher taxes and royalties, adding cost pressures.

    The theme remains steady but the sentiment in Q2 2025 is slightly more cautious—instead of solely celebrating high prices, the focus has shifted to managing the upside and downside impacts such as higher costs.

    Strategic Divestment and Balance Sheet Flexibility

    Throughout earlier periods, strategic divestment was a key focus: Q1 2025 detailed completion of divestments and strengthened balance sheet metrics. Q4 2024 and Q3 2024 reported robust divestment transactions, debt reduction, and share repurchase programs.

    Q2 2025 continues this trend with active debt reduction, a strong cash balance, and an expanded share repurchase program.

    There is a consistent and disciplined focus on portfolio rationalization and financial flexibility. The strategy remains critical to supporting long-term value creation, with steady execution evident across all periods.

    1. Capital Allocation
      Q: Appetite for acquisitions or more buybacks?
      A: Management emphasized that the best use of capital is to buy back stock rather than pursue acquisitions, with copper exposure growing organically through existing assets.

    2. Cash Flow Outlook
      Q: Future free cash flow and deferred proceeds?
      A: They noted that while free cash flow remains robust, increased second-half sustaining capital and deferred divestment payments (about $150M deferred cash and additional contingent amounts) will influence near-term liquidity.

    3. Cost Trends
      Q: How are costs and inflation affecting margins?
      A: Leadership indicated that cost performance, including input expenses like fuel and labor, is tracking as expected, with no unexpected inflationary pressures derailing overall margins.

    4. Production Guidance
      Q: Was higher Q1 production a bonus or front-loaded?
      A: They explained that strong first-half numbers partly reflected favorable grade outcomes, but lower grades are expected in the second half, keeping overall guidance steady.

    5. Tanami & Ahafo Update
      Q: How are Tanami shaft and Ahafo progressing?
      A: Management confirmed that the overbreak issue in Tanami is behind them and Ahafo is nearing final commissioning, with minimal risk remaining.

    6. Boddington Operations
      Q: Can Boddington sustain nameplate capacity?
      A: The team reported that improvements from the autonomous haul fleet and better plant asset management should support sustained performance at Boddington.

    7. Cadia/Penasquito Transition
      Q: Why is Q3 production expected to drop?
      A: They highlighted that the planned transition to new panel caves and naturally lower grades will reduce production in the third quarter, as anticipated by their models.

    8. Lee Operation Setup
      Q: How does early progress at Lee set up 2026?
      A: Management noted that early productivity and asset stabilization at Lee position the operation for a strong start in 2026, supporting long-term returns.

    9. Management Succession
      Q: Are there concerns after CFO departure?
      A: They reassured that the departure was managed smoothly with a capable interim team, ensuring no disruption to financial discipline or strategic focus.

    10. Red Chris & CapEx Shifts
      Q: What happened at Red Chris and why shift spending?
      A: The incident at Red Chris occurred 200 meters down the decline, prompting a shift in capital spending to safeguard asset integrity and ensure safety.

    11. Non-Core Positions
      Q: What’s the status of Greatland, Orla, and Lundin?
      A: Management clarified that Greatland Gold and Orla are considered non-core and potential divestitures, whereas the Lundin Gold interest remains a valuable strategic asset.

    12. Broad Productivity
      Q: Which assets offer the best productivity gains?
      A: They see significant improvement opportunities across the portfolio, notably at Lihir and Cerro Negro, where asset management and operational adjustments promise the greatest bang for the buck.

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