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NEWMONT Corp /DE/ (NEM)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 delivered strong operational and financial performance: Sales of $5.52B, diluted EPS of $1.67, and adjusted EPS of $1.71; adjusted EBITDA rose 10% q/q to $3.31B, and free cash flow was a third‑quarter record at $1.57B .
  • Results beat Wall Street consensus: EPS $1.71 vs $1.44*, revenue $5.52B vs $5.27B*, and EBITDA $3.31B vs $3.06B*; all three were meaningful beats, supported by higher realized gold prices ($3,539/oz) and cost discipline .
    Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Guidance improved on multiple cost lines: 2025 G&A lowered to $390M (from $475M), Exploration & Advanced Projects to $450M (from $525M), Interest expense to $255M (from $300M), Reclamation accretion to $350M (from $475M), and total sustaining and development capital reduced by $200M for FY25 .
  • Balance sheet strengthened: $5.6B cash, total liquidity $9.6B, net debt near zero ($12M); debt reduced by $2B via tender, and Moody’s upgraded Newmont to A3 (stable) .
  • Operational catalysts: Commercial production declared at Ahafo North (Ghana) following first gold on Sept 19; expected to contribute new low‑cost ounces and sustain portfolio momentum .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • “Produced approximately 1.4 million attributable gold ounces and generated a third‑quarter record of $1.6 billion in free cash flow, marking the fourth consecutive quarter with over $1 billion in free cash flow” — CEO Tom Palmer .
  • Cost optimization and productivity work delivered: Adjusted EBITDA increased 10% q/q to $3.31B; CAS and AISC per ounce moved slightly lower q/q, reflecting ongoing cost discipline .
  • Portfolio execution milestones: Commercial production at Ahafo North declared, with ramp‑up on schedule and anticipated low‑cost ounces benefiting FY26 trajectory .

What Went Wrong

  • Attributable gold production decreased 4% q/q to 1,421 koz due to lower grades and planned shutdowns at Peñasquito and Lihir, and end of Subika open pit mining at Ahafo South; partially offset by Brucejack, Cerro Negro, and Yanacocha .
  • GAAP net income fell $229M q/q, primarily due to a smaller gain on asset sales ($99M vs $699M prior quarter) and lower fair value gains on investments; taxes declined $305M, partially offsetting .
  • Working capital headwinds: Net cash from operating activities decreased 4% q/q to $2.30B due to a $286M unfavorable working capital movement (receivables timing, reclamation spend, inventory build) .

Financial Results

Core P&L (quarterly)

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)$5.010 $5.317 $5.524
Diluted EPS (GAAP)$1.68 $1.85 $1.67
Adjusted EPS ($)$1.25 $1.43 $1.71
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Billions)$2.629 $2.997 $3.309
Net Cash from Ops ($USD Billions)$2.031 $2.384 $2.298
Free Cash Flow ($USD Billions)$1.205 $1.710 $1.571

Unit Costs, Realized Price, Volume

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Average Realized Gold Price ($/oz)$2,944 $3,320 $3,539
Gold CAS (Co-Product, $/oz)$1,227 $1,215 $1,185
Gold AISC (Co-Product, $/oz)$1,651 $1,593 $1,566
Attributable Gold Production (koz)1,537 1,478 1,421

Actual vs Consensus (Q3 2025)

MetricConsensus*ActualSurprise
EPS ($)1.44*1.71 +0.27*
Revenue ($USD Billions)5.27*5.52 +0.25*
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Billions)3.06*3.31 +0.25*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment Production (Attributable gold, key sites, koz)

SiteQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Lihir164 160 129
Ahafo (South)205 197 145
Peñasquito123 148 88
Cadia103 104 97
Yanacocha105 131 152
Brucejack41 50 79
NGM (38.5%)216 239 251

KPIs

KPIQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Cash & Equivalents ($B)$4.698 $6.185 $5.639
Total Liquidity ($B)~$8.8 $10.2 $9.6
Net Debt ($B)$3.221 $1.422 ~$0.012
Dividend per Share ($)$0.25 $0.25 $0.25

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
G&A Expense ($M)FY 2025$475 $390 Lowered
Exploration & Advanced Projects ($M)FY 2025$525 $450 Lowered
Interest Expense ($M)FY 2025$300 $255 Lowered
Reclamation & Remediation Accretion ($M)FY 2025$475 $350 Lowered
Sustaining Capital ($M)FY 2025$1,875 $1,725 Lowered
Development Capital ($M)FY 2025$1,330 $1,280 Lowered
Adjusted Tax Rate (%)FY 202534% 33% Lowered
Gold CAS ($/oz, Co-Product)FY 2025$1,200 $1,200 Maintained
Gold AISC ($/oz, Co-Product)FY 2025$1,630 $1,630 Maintained

Management expects Q4 free cash flow to be adversely impacted by Yanacocha water treatment construction spend and planned severance payments accrued in Q3 .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Organizational restructuringCompletion of divestitures; streamlined org; focus on Tier 1 portfolio Decentralized structure: two business units; site autonomy; CFO vacancy to be filled Execution maturing
Cost savings & productivityCost work underway; expected q/q unit cost stabilization Cost savings driving G&A/Exploration cuts; CAS/AISC slightly lower q/q despite higher royalties/taxes Improving
Capital allocationAdded $3B buyback program; strong FCF and liquidity $823M returned since last call; cumulative $3.3B buybacks; disciplined balance between reinvestment and returns Shareholder‑friendly
Ahafo North rampPeak dev spend Q2; commercial production expected H2 Commercial production declared; ramp on schedule; low‑cost ounces Positive execution
Cadia tailings capacityIncreased sustaining capital H2 to address underinvestment Robust plan to repair/raise facility; spend shifted to FY26; capacity prioritized Near‑term deferral
Peñasquito mix shiftH2 decline in gold; other metals steady Lower gold proportion as mine sequence transitions to Peñasco pit; silver/lead/zinc up modestly Mix shifting
2026 outlookManaged production within FY25 range; timing dependent Managed production expected at lower end of FY25 range due to mine sequencing (Ahafo South, Peñasquito, Cadia) Slightly softer
JV/NGM & pipelineNGM to contribute H2; project phasing NGM H4 higher; Red Chris feasibility proposal targeted mid‑2026; disciplined project competition for capital Constructive but measured

Management Commentary

  • “We generated record three‑quarter cash flow of $1.6 billion… fourth consecutive quarter with free cash flow exceeding $1 billion” — Natascha Viljoen .
  • “We made significant progress on cost discipline… meaningfully improve our 2025 guidance for several cost metrics whilst maintaining our outlook for production and unit cost in a rising gold price environment” — Natascha Viljoen .
  • “We will declare commercial production by the end of today at our new… Ahafo North… adding profitable gold production over an initial 13‑year mine life” — Tom Palmer/Natascha Viljoen .

Q&A Highlights

  • Capital returns vs net cash: Management reiterated discipline within the capital allocation framework; buybacks and dividend remain core, balanced against reinvestment and resilience .
  • Project pipeline: Red Chris feasibility proposal targeted mid next year; longer‑dated projects must compete for capital; potential future decision on Fourmile per JV framework with Barrick .
  • 2026 production & costs: Managed operations expected at lower end of FY25 range due to mine sequencing; CAS/AISC next year will reflect inflation and royalty/profit‑sharing sensitivity to gold prices, partially offset by ongoing cost initiatives .
  • Yanacocha & Peñasquito: Yanacocha mining concluding in Q4; injection leach focus; Peñasquito shifts to the next pit phase, lowering gold proportion while increasing silver/lead/zinc output .

Estimates Context

  • EPS, revenue, and EBITDA beat consensus in Q3: EPS $1.71 vs $1.44*, revenue $5.52B vs $5.27B*, EBITDA $3.31B vs $3.06B*, driven by higher realized gold prices and lower unit costs .
    Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Q4 2025 consensus implies continued strength: EPS $1.80*, revenue $5.86B*, EBITDA $3.55B*, but management flagged near‑term free cash flow headwinds (Yanacocha spend, severance) that could modestly temper Q4 FCF vs Q2/Q3 .
    Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • The quarter’s broad‑based beat (+EPS/revenue/EBITDA) and improved FY25 cost/capex guidance underpin near‑term estimate upward revisions, with higher realized prices magnifying operating leverage .
  • Portfolio execution remains a catalyst: Ahafo North commercial production is now a tangible contributor; Brucejack and Yanacocha performance improved q/q, while Peñasquito and Cadia transitions are well telegraphed .
  • Ongoing buybacks and an affirmed dividend support the equity narrative; net debt near zero and A3 credit rating reinforce balance‑sheet flexibility through the cycle .
  • 2026 managed production at the lower end of FY25 range is predominantly sequencing‑driven; investors should focus on cost savings momentum and asset‑level optimization to offset royalty/tax headwinds at elevated gold prices .
  • Watch Q4 FCF: management flagged timing headwinds (Yanacocha water treatment spend, severance payments), though the underlying cash engine remains robust at current gold prices .
  • Medium‑term pipeline discipline should preserve returns: Red Chris feasibility timing, NGM optionality (Fourmile), and brownfield debottlenecking compete for capital under strict thresholds .
  • Overall, Newmont’s scale and leverage to gold prices, coupled with structural cost progress and capital returns, are supportive of a constructive medium‑term thesis, even as near‑term site transitions modestly temper volume .
Note: All consensus/estimate values marked with an asterisk (*) are values retrieved from S&P Global.