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    NEWMONT Corp /DE/ (NEM)

    Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Feb 21, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$48.09Last close (Feb 20, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$47.46Open (Feb 21, 2025)
    Price Change
    $-0.63(-1.31%)
    • Newmont is focusing on delivering key growth projects like Cadia, where they are building two caves (PC2-3 and PC1-2) expected to result in decades of ore production, strengthening the company's production profile for the long term.
    • The company generated record free cash flow in the fourth quarter, demonstrating the strong potential of its go-forward portfolio to generate substantial cash flows, which is a positive indicator for future performance.
    • Newmont maintains a strong balance sheet with plans to keep $3 billion in cash on average over the year, maintain debt below $8 billion, and continue returning capital to shareholders through its $1 annual dividend and $3 billion share repurchase program, highlighting its financial strength and commitment to shareholder returns.
    • Limited visibility on long-term guidance beyond 2025, as the company is only providing 1-year guidance, which may raise concerns about future production and costs. Management stated that their focus is on stabilizing the business in 2025 and may not provide substantive information beyond that until next year.
    • Elevated G&A costs and overhead expenses that are not decreasing as expected, despite anticipated synergies from the Newcrest acquisition. Management acknowledged that G&A costs are unacceptably high, overshadowing the synergies achieved, and they are still working through integration and divestments, which continues to impact costs.
    • Higher sustaining capital expenditures for the next few years, particularly the $1.8 billion sustaining capital spend in 2025, which is at an elevated level due to investments like the Cadia tailings project. This elevated capital expenditure could pressure free cash flow and limit capital available for other uses.
    MetricYoY ChangeReason

    Total Revenue

    Increased from $3,957 million to $5,652 million (42.9% YoY)

    The increase in total revenue reflects improved operating performance and stronger sales, likely driven by higher metal prices and increased production compared to the previous period, which had lower revenue benchmarks.

    Operating Income

    Swung from a loss of $3,102 million to $2,054 million

    A dramatic operational turnaround is evident, suggesting better cost management, higher consolidated sales, and possibly synergies from operational improvements that were absent or weaker in Q4 2023.

    Net Income

    Went from a net loss of $3,131 million to a net profit of $1,403 million

    Improved operational efficiencies and cost containment have resulted in a significant bottom‐line recovery, reversing the losses seen in Q4 2023.

    Basic EPS

    Rose from -$3.81 to $1.24

    The turnaround in earnings per share mirrors the overall profitability recovery, underlined by the improvements in operating income and net income, and reflects the successful execution of initiatives that reversed previous financial challenges.

    Gold Sales

    Accounted for $4,837 million, making up approximately 85.6% of total revenue

    The dominance of gold sales, driven by higher realized prices and increased production volumes compared to Q4 2023, underscores its key role in revenue growth and marks a significant improvement in this business segment.

    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Gold Production

    FY 2025

    5.6 million ounces

    5.6 million ounces

    no change

    Sustaining Capital

    FY 2025

    $1.8 billion

    $1.8 billion

    no change

    All-in Sustaining Cost (AISC)

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    $1,620 per ounce

    no prior guidance

    Development Capital Spend

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    $1.3 billion

    no prior guidance

    Production Weighting

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    52%

    no prior guidance

    First Quarter Production

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    23%

    no prior guidance

    Free Cash Flow

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    sequentially higher free cash flow each quarter

    no prior guidance

    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Cadia

    Mentioned consistently from Q1 to Q3 with discussions on transitioning from older panel caves, a temporary production decline, and early ramp‐up initiatives (e.g., caving work at Panel Cave 2-3 and Panel Cave 1-2, lower grades during transition).

    Q4 emphasized a major transition by establishing new panel caves (PC2-3 and PC1-2), delivering over 1 million tonnes of ore and outlining long-term potential (over 5 million ounces gold, 1 million tonnes copper).

    Improved long-term outlook – shifting from short-term production declines to significant ramp-up and stabilization with strong infrastructure investments.

    Capital Allocation

    Consistently covered from Q1 to Q3 with a focus on maintaining an investment-grade balance sheet, disciplined cash management, approved share buyback programs, and steady dividend policies.

    Q4 reaffirmed a strong balance sheet with record free cash flow, substantial cash liquidity (over $3.6B), and continued emphasis on share repurchases and dividends as part of a balanced capital allocation strategy.

    Consistent and robust – the strategic focus remains unchanged with a stable, positive sentiment regarding financial strength and shareholder returns.

    Cost Management Challenges

    Early discussions in Q1–Q2 highlighted inflation pressures (e.g., steel, cyanide, labor), alongside emerging cost reduction initiatives and synergy efforts; Q3 noted significant contractor inflation and broader cost pressures.

    Q4 detailed ongoing inflation pressures and elevated costs that partially overwhelmed synergy benefits, while reaffirming efforts to reduce costs and systematically improve productivity.

    Persistent and cautious – inflation pressures remain an ongoing challenge, counterbalanced by targeted cost reduction initiatives; sentiment is cautious yet proactive.

    Elevated Sustaining Capital Expenditures

    Q1 mentioned planned development capital investments; Q2 and Q3 noted higher sustaining capex driven by tailings work and long-term infrastructure projects, signaling pressures from elevated spending.

    Q4 underscores sustaining capex at an elevated level (around $1.8B) driven by significant tailings remediation and infrastructure investments at key sites like Cadia, adding further to unit cost pressures.

    Continued challenge – high sustaining capital expenditures remain a consistent pressure, potentially intensifying cost challenges; sentiment tends toward concern.

    Integration & Synergy Realization

    Q1 highlighted integration hurdles (including safety and procedural issues) and initial synergy achievements; Q2 and Q3 reported progress with synergy targets from Newcrest (e.g., $100M in G&A, supply chain, full potential initiatives).

    Q4 noted continued integration challenges with synergies emerging (e.g., a $5M per annum run rate and additional supply chain synergies) but with elevated costs still offsetting full financial visibility of these benefits.

    Mixed progress – while synergy realization is advancing, integration challenges persist; sentiment is cautiously optimistic amid ongoing hurdles.

    Limited Long-Term Guidance

    Minimal discussion in Q1–Q2; Q3 began addressing production outlook uncertainties with asset-by-asset guidance while hinting at longer-term unpredictability.

    Q4 explicitly stated a focus on ensuring stabilization for 2025 and deferred substantive long-term guidance beyond that while acknowledging uncertainties at key assets (Cadia, Lihir).

    Emerging concern – long-term guidance uncertainty has become more pronounced recently, with a deliberate short-term focus reflecting a cautious outlook for the future.

    Operational Production Challenges

    Across Q1 to Q3, various sites (Cadia, Lihir, Brucejack, etc.) were affected by production transitions, lower grades, and operational adjustments, with specific shortfalls and risks highlighted.

    Q4 continued to report significant operational challenges at key sites (e.g., production instability at Cadia, adjustments at Lihir and Brucejack, and risk management to stabilize output).

    Persistent and recurring – operational challenges remain consistent across periods, with ongoing risks requiring targeted mitigation; sentiment remains cautious.

    Asset Divestiture Uncertainty

    Q1 discussed uncertainty in achieving divestiture targets relative to book values, while Q2 and Q3 detailed competitive bidding processes and some uncertainty regarding timing and purchase prices.

    Q4 reported a target of $2.5B in cash proceeds from non-core asset sales, with transactions largely on track and less explicit mention of uncertainty, though the process is ongoing.

    Slightly improved clarity – while some inherent uncertainty remains, progress in the divestiture process has led to a more defined outlook; sentiment is cautiously optimistic.

    Safety & Operational Risk Incidents

    Q1 through Q3 extensively discussed safety issues and fatalities (e.g., Cerro Negro, Brucejack) along with significant focus on safety program enhancements and investigations.

    Q4 did not mention any safety or operational risk incidents.

    Reduced emphasis – the absence of safety incident mentions in Q4 may indicate improved safety performance or lower incident occurrence, contributing to a more positive operational sentiment.

    1. Future Guidance and Production Outlook
      Q: Will you provide substantive information beyond 1-year guidance in future releases?
      A: After significant transformation last year, we're focusing on delivering high-confidence guidance for 2025 to stabilize the business. We'll take this year to understand our assets better and may consider providing longer-term guidance in the future.

    2. Impact of Newcrest Acquisition
      Q: How should investors assess the success of the Newcrest acquisition without long-term outlook?
      A: We're optimizing acquired assets like Cadia and Lihir for long-term value. Early indications, such as record free cash flow in the fourth quarter, demonstrate the strength of our portfolio. As we integrate and improve these assets, they'll significantly contribute to future performance.

    3. Cost Guidance and Reserve Price Assumptions
      Q: With AISC at $1,620/oz and reserve price at $1,700/oz, is this year peak costs?
      A: The reserve price and AISC are set separately. AISC is high at $1,620/oz due to significant investments like Cadia tailings. We aim to improve costs and productivity; costs need to come down.

    4. G&A Costs Post-Newcrest Synergies
      Q: Why are G&A costs so high despite synergies from Newcrest deal, and when will they decrease?
      A: G&A is unacceptably high due to ongoing divestments and integration costs. As we complete asset sales and integration, G&A costs will come down to match our go-forward portfolio.

    5. Capital Allocation Strategy
      Q: Will you adjust debt targets or leverage ratios to accelerate growth projects?
      A: Our capital allocation strategy remains unchanged. We'll maintain a strong balance sheet with around $3 billion in cash, keep debt below $8 billion, and continue funding capital projects. We'll return capital to shareholders via the $1 annual dividend and ongoing share repurchases.

    6. Cadence of Share Buybacks
      Q: How will the share buyback proceed throughout the year given asset sales?
      A: We have $1.8 billion remaining under the buyback authorization. After the earnings release, we can resume buybacks. Timing will align with free cash flow and proceeds from divestitures, expected to be around $2.5 billion in the first half of 2025.

    7. Synergies from Newcrest Integration
      Q: Where are the $500 million synergies from Newcrest integration reflected?
      A: We achieved the expected synergies but one-time costs and efficiency initiatives offset them in the financials. Supply chain synergies of approximately $200 million were captured. Elevated costs mean synergies aren't visible yet; benefits will appear in future years as we address costs.

    8. Production Levels Over Next Few Years
      Q: Will production exceed 6 million oz in 3-5 years given project pipeline?
      A: Yes, as we bring on new lower-cost ounces, production may exceed 6 million ounces in some years but will average around that over the long term. We'll focus on improving margins rather than chasing volume.

    9. Project Prioritization and Red Chris
      Q: Will you transition quickly to the next project, and is Red Chris the likely candidate?
      A: We don't aim to have a conveyor belt of projects. Our focus is on delivering current projects successfully. Red Chris is undergoing a feasibility study and could be next if it proves its value.

    10. Investment Focus: Gold vs. Copper
      Q: Are you more inclined to invest in gold or copper projects?
      A: We have significant copper opportunities. Projects like Boddington and Cadia will produce both gold and copper. Red Chris could contribute substantially to our copper production. We're considering both to maintain and potentially increase our copper output.

    11. Lihir's Go-Forward Plan
      Q: When will you conclude and share Lihir's go-forward plan?
      A: We've optimized the pit shell and are working on infrastructure to support a stripping campaign over the next 2–3 years, leading into high-grade ore. This sets up Lihir for long-term sustained production; we expect to maintain historical levels into the future.

    12. Timing of Next Growth Projects
      Q: What's needed to firm up timing of projects like Red Chris and Yanacocha?
      A: We're focused on delivering current projects. For Red Chris, we're working through feasibility studies, technical work, permits, and community support. Yanacocha focuses on building water treatment plants to set up for the next chapter.

    13. Dividend Policy
      Q: Is the $1 dividend sustainable at $1,700/oz or $1,400/oz?
      A: Our dividend is $1 per share, full stop. It's not tied to reserve price assumptions.

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