Executive Summary

Q4 2024 was Newmont’s strongest quarter of the year: sales rose to $5.65B with record quarterly free cash flow of $1.64B, driven by higher realized gold price ($2,643/oz), increased volumes, and lower AISC vs Q3; full‑year 2024 sales were $18.68B and free cash flow $2.92B .
The company beat its own Q4 outlook on production (1,899 koz vs 1,800 koz guided) and delivered lower AISC ($1,463/oz) than guided ($1,475/oz); CAS/oz ran above the outlook ($1,096 vs $1,050) .
2025 guidance introduced: 5.9 Moz attributable gold, total portfolio AISC $1,630/oz, sustaining capex ~$1.8B and development capex ~$1.3B; G&A $475M, interest ~$300M, D&A ~$2.6B, tax rate ~34% .
Strategic narrative: portfolio rationalization advancing (up to $4.3B potential proceeds), record Q4 cash generation, and clear cost/productivity program; management cautioned 1H’25 unit costs will be higher, with FCF building through the year .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Record quarterly free cash flow ($1.64B) and strong operating cash ($2.51B) in Q4 on higher gold prices and volumes; full‑year free cash flow reached $2.92B .
Production and AISC outperformance vs the company’s Q4 outlook: attributable gold 1,899 koz vs 1,800 koz guided; AISC $1,463/oz vs $1,475/oz guided .
CEO tone: “Our record fourth quarter gave a glimpse into the promising potential of the business and allowed Newmont to deliver record operating cash flows” and “we expect our balance sheet and liquidity remains robust” .

What Went Wrong

CAS per ounce exceeded Q4 outlook ($1,096/oz actual vs $1,050/oz guided), indicating cost pressure despite AISC beat .
Management reaffirmed 2025 AISC at a higher level ($1,620/oz for the Tier 1 portfolio), citing heavy sustaining capex (tailings), cost allocation shifts to gold, royalty/tax uplift from higher prices, and ~3% inflation .
Site-level challenges persist (Cadia/Lihir), requiring elevated sustaining spend and mine plan work to restore long‑term stability and costs to Tier 1 levels .

Financial Results

Consolidated performance (Q2 → Q3 → Q4 2024)

Metric	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Sales ($B)	$4.40B	$4.61B	$5.65B
Net income to shareholders ($M)	$853	$922	$1,403
Adjusted EPS ($/share)	$0.72	$0.81	$1.40
Avg realized gold price ($/oz)	$2,347	$2,518	$2,643
Attributable gold production (Moz)	1.607	1.668	1.899
Gold AISC ($/oz)	$1,562	$1,611	$1,463
CAS per oz ($/oz)	$1,152	$1,207	$1,096
Free Cash Flow ($B)	$0.59B	$0.76B	$1.64B

Q4 2024 results vs company’s Q4 2024 internal outlook

Metric	Company Outlook (Q4’24)	Actual Q4’24	Surprise
Attributable gold production (koz)	1,800	1,899	+5.5%
Gold AISC ($/oz)	$1,475	$1,463	Beat ($12/oz)
Gold CAS ($/oz)	$1,050	$1,096	Miss ($46/oz)
Copper production (kt)	35	40 sold (approx.)	Beat (~+14%)

Selected site production (Q4 2024 attributable gold, koz)

Site	Q4 2024
Ahafo	211
Lihir	163
Boddington	164
Peñasquito	127
Tanami	117
Cadia	110

KPIs and balance sheet

Net cash from operations (Q4): $2.51B; Free cash flow (Q4): $1.64B .
Cash and liquidity: $3.6B cash; ~$7.7B total liquidity at year‑end .
Net debt: $5.31B; net debt/Adjusted EBITDA 0.6x (12‑mo) .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Attributable gold production	FY 2025	—	~5.9 Moz (incl. 0.3 Moz non‑core in Q1; 5.6 Moz Tier 1)	Introduced
Gold AISC (Total portfolio)	FY 2025	—	~$1,630/oz	Introduced
Gold AISC (Tier 1 portfolio)	FY 2025	—	~$1,620/oz	Introduced
Sustaining capital	FY 2025	—	~$1.8B (Tier 1)	Introduced
Development capital	FY 2025	—	~$1.3B (Tier 1)	Introduced
G&A expense	FY 2025	—	~$475M	Introduced
Interest expense	FY 2025	—	~$300M	Introduced
D&A	FY 2025	—	~$2.6B	Introduced
Adjusted tax rate	FY 2025	—	~34%	Introduced
Dividend	Q4 2024	—	$0.25/share declared	Declared

Notes: Management indicated 1Q25 will carry higher unit costs and lower free cash flow due to production weighting and inclusion of non‑core assets pending divestiture .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Q-2 (Q2 2024)	Q-1 (Q3 2024)	Current (Q4 2024)	Trend
Portfolio rationalization	Announced/advanced non‑core sales; proceeds outlook ≥$2B; buybacks & debt paydown progressing	Additional sales (Akyem, Telfer/Havieron); synergy run‑rate achieved	Agreements for all non‑core ops; up to $4.3B total proceeds	Improving execution
Cost & AISC outlook	CAS/AISC up Q/Q on mix, royalties; AISC $1,562/oz	AISC $1,611/oz; Q4 outlook AISC $1,475/oz	FY25 AISC $1,620/oz (Tier 1), drivers: sustaining capex, royalty/taxes, allocation, inflation	Elevated near term; normalization targeted
Projects (Tanami, Ahafo North, Cadia)	Progress continued; spend concentrated on TE2, Ahafo North, Cadia	Cadia PC2‑3 cave established; PC1‑2 dev advancing	Ahafo North first gold H2’25; Tanami shaft milestones; Cadia tailings + caves to 2030	On track
Reclamation/closure	Planned $600–700M annual outflows (2024–25) at Yanacocha WT plants	Continued spend; feasibility work and cash outflows in Q4	~$600M average next two years; decline from 2027	Sustained then easing
Guidance framework	Full‑year 2024 reiterated	Gave Q4 outlook; signaled strong Q4	One‑year 2025 guidance only, to stabilize and improve visibility	Conservative horizon
Capital returns	$250M buybacks (Q2); dividend $0.25	$750M repurchases to date; new $2B authorization	$1.2B repurchased in 2024; $1.8B remaining on program; $1/share dividend policy	Ongoing, FCF‑linked

Management Commentary

CEO Tom Palmer (prepared remarks): “Our record fourth quarter gave a glimpse into the promising potential of the business and allowed Newmont to deliver record operating cash flows… our priorities are clear: maximize the potential of our Tier 1 portfolio, meet our commitments, return capital, and drive long‑term value for our shareholders.”
On elevated 2025 AISC drivers: sustaining capital at Cadia (+$40/oz), cost allocation shift to gold (+$35/oz), higher royalties/taxes from strong gold (+$10/oz per +$100 Au), and ~3% inflation (+$44/oz) .
On portfolio focus and timeline: “Very deliberate… focus this organization on delivering our commitments in 2025 with high‑confidence guidance,” with broader multi‑year color to follow after cost/productivity work in 2025 .
Dividend: “Our common dividend is $1 a share, full stop.”

Q&A Highlights

Balance sheet/returns: Policy unchanged—maintain ~$3B cash on average, debt below $8B, fund $1.8B sustaining and $1.3B development capex, return $1/share dividend and continue repurchases; $1.8B repurchase authorization remaining .
Guidance horizon: One‑year (2025) to stabilize post‑integration; multi‑year color possible next year after cost/productivity program .
Lihir plan: Reconfigured mine plan and reliability work aim for stable 2025–27, with ~30% production lift in 2028 (Phase 14A access); long‑life asset with >30Moz reserves/resources .
G&A levels: Currently “unacceptably high” due to integration and divestiture work; expected to glide down as non‑core assets close and systems integration completes .
Project pipeline: With three projects in execution, next FID will be sequenced prudently; Red Chris is “next cab off the rank” if value is confirmed by feasibility and permitting .

Estimates Context

Wall Street consensus from S&P Global could not be retrieved at this time due to vendor rate limits; therefore, we are not presenting “vs. consensus” comparisons for Q4 2024 or FY 2024 results. We will update when access is restored.
As a proxy for performance context, the company exceeded its own Q4 internal outlook on production and AISC, while CAS/oz ran above guidance .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Positive operational delta: Q4 production beat, lower AISC than outlook, and record FCF underscore the earnings power of the go‑forward Tier 1 portfolio at current gold prices .
2025 “investment cycle” year: Expect higher unit costs early in 2025 (mix/seasonality and inclusion of non‑core Q1 ounces) before improving through the year; FCF likely builds each quarter .
Cost normalization path: Elevated 2025 AISC is transitory—drivers are identifiable (sustaining capex at Cadia, royalties, allocation, inflation); management is targeting Tier 1 cost levels via productivity and G&A reductions .
Portfolio simplification catalyzes returns: Up to $4.3B gross proceeds from divestitures (with ~$2.5B net cash expected 1H’25) should strengthen liquidity and fund buybacks in step with FCF .
Project delivery remains central: H2’25 Ahafo North start, Tanami Expansion 2 progress, and Cadia caves underpin medium‑term volume/cost improvement into 2027–28 .
Near‑term trading set‑up: Company beat its own Q4 outlook and posted record FCF, but 2025 AISC guide is elevated; stock performance likely toggles between FCF deployment (buybacks) and confidence in cost normalization cadence .

Appendix: Additional Data

FY 2024 summaries

Sales: $18.68B; Net income to shareholders: $3.35B; Adjusted net income: $3.99B; Adjusted EBITDA: $8.68B .
Average realized gold price: $2,408/oz; Gold AISC: $1,516/oz; Attributable gold production: 6.849 Moz .
Cash and liquidity: $3.6B cash; ~$7.7B total liquidity; Net debt $5.31B; net debt/Adj EBITDA 0.6x .

Reserves/resources update (Feb 20, 2025)

Year‑end 2024 gold reserves: 134.1 Moz (125.5 Moz go‑forward Tier 1); copper reserves: 13.5 Mt; reserve price assumption raised to $1,700/oz .

All citations reference company disclosures:

Q4 2024 earnings 8‑K and Exhibit 99.1 (Feb 20, 2025) [127:…];
Q4 2024 earnings call transcript (Feb 20, 2025) [119:…];
Q3 2024 and Q2 2024 press releases for trend/outlook [186:…] [208:…];
Reserves press release (Feb 20, 2025) [122:…].

NEWMONT Corp /DE/ (NEM)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary