National Grid - H1 2025

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good morning and welcome to National Grid's half-year results presentation. I'm Angela Broad, Head of Investor Relations, and it's great to have so many of you on the call today. Firstly, please can I draw your attention to the cautionary statement at the front of the pack? As usual, a Q&A with John and Andy will follow the presentation. Please join via the conference call and use Star 1 to ask a question, or use the tab at the bottom of the webcast to submit a written question. All of today's materials are available on our website, and of course, for any further queries after the call, please reach out to me or one of the IR team. So, with that, I'd now like to hand you over to our CEO, John Pettigrew. John.

John Pettigrew (CEO)

Many thanks, Angela, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. As ever, I'm here with Andy Agg, and once we've been through our respective presentations, we'll, of course, be very happy to answer your questions. As you know, in May, we updated our strategy and announced the actions we'd be taking to make National Grid the preeminent pure-play networks business. This marked the beginning of an exciting new era of growth, with unmatched visibility on around GBP 60 billion of capital investment in our networks over the next five years and clarity on financing well beyond that.

Over the last six months, the pace of change in our industry has continued, as has the exciting momentum within National Grid. We successfully completed the GBP 7 billion rights issue, positioning our balance sheet to deliver this growth at pace. We're delivering on our major capital projects, increasing investment to a record GBP 4.6 billion in the first half. In the U.K., construction is already underway on five of our ASTI projects. And in the U.S., regulated CapEx increased 20% year on year as we've continued our $4 billion upstate upgrade program.

And our policy agenda has continued to move forward as well. We're encouraged by the start the new U.K. government has made against their energy priorities. As you would have seen, the National Energy System Operator, or NESO, was established on the 1st of October following our sale of the electricity system operator for GBP 630 million. They've also formed Mission Control to help accelerate progress on energy projects needed for 2030, and at the end of this year, they'll set up their action plan to achieve this, taking into account the advice set out this week by the NESO.

The NESO's report is a welcome milestone towards clarity on the steps needed to deliver against this goal, and we'll continue to play our part alongside the government, regulator, and industry. The government has also commissioned NESO to develop a strategic Spatial Energy Plan, setting out where energy assets need to be built and when to meet the country's 2050 net zero goals. We're pleased that the King's Speech in July included the expected legislation to reform the planning system. This will help to accelerate the delivery of critical infrastructure, something that we've long been advocating for.

In the U.S., Massachusetts and New York policymakers are continuing to progress plans to align economic growth and system reliability needs with their clean energy and climate goals. Both states recognize the need for long-term holistic energy planning, and we're encouraged that this is now underway. From a regulatory perspective, we've agreed new rates for our downstate New York gas business and for our Massachusetts electric business, giving us even greater visibility on our investment plans, and in the UK, Ofgem's publication of the sector-specific methodology decision marked the next step in the RIIO-T3 regulatory process.

We've also achieved another important strategic milestone by completing in September the sale of our final 20% stake in our UK gas transmission business for GBP 686 million. So as I say, exciting momentum and progress in the last six months that underpins our compelling investor proposition of delivering low-risk, high-quality asset growth, strong earnings growth, and an inflation-protected dividend. Now, turning to our financial performance for the first six months.

On an underlying basis that is excluding the impact of timing and exceptional items, operating profit from continuing operations was £2 billion, 15% higher compared to the prior year at constant currency. This reflects good performance across all of our regulated businesses, which drove an increase in underlying earnings per share of 8% to £28.1. Our business delivered a record £4.6 billion of investment, up 19% year on year at constant currency, and in line with our policy, the board has declared an interim dividend of £15.84 per share. Turning next to reliability and safety. Reliability has remained strong across our U.K. and U.S. networks despite severe weather in most jurisdictions. Our teams restored outages rapidly and well within regulatory requirements, including in our New York region, where during the most significant storms, the average time to restore 95% of customers was just 12 hours.

As we look ahead, NESO recently published its winter outlook report for the U.K., in which they're forecasting an electricity capacity margin of 8.8%, slightly higher than last year's and broadly in line with recent winters. Overall, we're confident in delivering our usual high standard reliability across our networks in the months ahead and remain vigilant as we move through the winter in both the U.K. and the U.S. Safety, as always, remains a critical focus across the business. In the first six months, our lost time injury frequency rate was 0.1, in line with our group target. With our significant increase in capital delivery, we're recruiting new contractors working for National Grid for the first time, and so we've reinforced our protocols to ensure that our high safety standards are maintained. Now, moving to our operating performance across the group, starting with U.K. electricity distribution.

Capital investment increased by 6% to £647 million, driven by increased customer connections, asset health workload, and network reinforcements. We've also made further progress to improve our customer service, including in May when we launched Clearview Connect. This online tool provides visibility of grid supply point capacity, including a view of the generation connections pipeline to help prospective developers identify the quickest and cheapest connection point, and we've made good progress in reforming the connections process. By playing a leading role in the industry's technical limits initiative, we've been able to accelerate the connection offer dates on over 280 megawatts of distribution generation, and as mentioned at our connections investor event in January, by reviewing projects that aren't progressing, we've been able to remove 3.7 gigawatts of capacity from the contracted connections queue.

Looking ahead, while we're still more than three years remaining in ED2, we're already thinking about the next regulatory cycle. Yesterday, Ofgem issued its framework consultation, which includes wide-ranging questions to help shape the ED2 price control, and we'll respond early in the new year. Turning to UK electricity transmission, where CapEx increased by 43% to GBP 1.3 billion, driven by an increase in customer connections, with 2.3 gigawatts of new customer connections in the first half, and good progress on our GBP 1 billion London Power Tunnels project, where we successfully energized a 2.5 kilometer circuit between Hurst substation and Crayford. Looking further ahead, we're seeing an increase in transmission scale connection requests for data centers that is driving significant investment for new and upgraded substations in the southeast.

On regulatory developments, Ofgem published in July their decision on the sector-specific methodology, marking the next step in the RIIO-T3 regulatory process that will run through to the final determination at the end of 2025. We were pleased to see that the document included a commitment to streamlining the overall framework to enable faster decision-making on which projects proceed. Proposals for an advanced procurement mechanism, which enables us to secure supply chain capacity early, and the introduction of mechanisms similar to the ASTI approach to allow funding on projects earlier than historically has been the case. As you'd expect, we're engaging constructively with Ofgem, as well as wider stakeholders, to agree the right regulatory frameworks that deliver a net zero energy system and a fair return.

While we are encouraged by Ofgem's inclusion of a cost of equity range of 4.6%-6.4%, the allowed return needs to be at the top end of the range in order to continue to attract sufficient capital to the sector. Ofgem also concluded on its inflation consultation with the introduction of a nominal return on fixed-rate debt, which will allow better matching of allowances to actual debt costs and faster recovery of cash. On the policy front, we've seen progress on connections reform, and I'm pleased that we now have consensus with government, Ofgem, and NESO on the steps that need to be taken. In the second half of 2025, NESO is expected to implement reforms where projects must move through a two-stage process based on a combination of project readiness and alignment with the Clean Power Plan.

Turning next to our strategic infrastructure business, created last year to deliver the 17 ASTI projects. We're managing these projects in distinct waves. Wave one comprises the six most advanced projects, and wave two comprises the remaining 11, which are at earlier stages of development. We're well progressed with obtaining the required consents for the first wave of projects, and we expect to have all the key equipment and material contracts in place by early next year. As I mentioned earlier, construction has started on five of the first wave, including the offshore Eastern Green Links one and two, Yorkshire Green, North London Reinforcement, and Bramford to Twinstead. With construction due to start shortly on the Grain to Tilbury project by the end of this fiscal year, we'll have broken ground on all six of our wave one projects.

Turning to our wave two projects, we had a number of public consultations running over the summer, and with further consultations planned in 2025, we're progressing well through the consenting process. We're making good progress on procurement and are well advanced in securing the supply chain, and we're submitting early construction funding requests to Ofgem on Eastern Green Links three and four and our Sea Link project to allow these projects to move forward at pace. Coming to the U.S. and starting with New York, CapEx has continued to be strong, increasing 29% to GBP 1.6 billion in the first half. This reflects strong progress with our $4 billion upstate upgrade, including our Smart Path Connect project, which has reached the halfway point in construction well ahead of schedule.

The work approved under the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act, where construction on phase one of the project is progressing well, and we've just issued the procurement tenders for phase two. We've also increased investment in our gas network, replacing a further 161 miles of leak-prone pipe as we continue to reduce our methane emissions. On the regulatory front, in August, our three-year rate case settlement for our KEDNY and KEDLI gas distribution businesses was approved by the commission. We expect to invest $5 billion over the next three years with an improved ROE of 9.35%. We filed for new rates in our Niagara Mohawk business in Upstate New York. The filing proposes transmission investment to integrate renewables, line and substation upgrades, and further investment in our leak-prone pipe replacement program.

At the end of September, as usual, the PSC staff provided rebuttal testimony, including a 9.5% cost of equity against our current allowed return of 9% and smaller increases to our allowed, our proposed capital investment. The filing will now continue to progress as we enter settlement negotiations, and we're confident we can reach a constructive outcome by the spring. Turning to policy, we're in July, a draft report from the New York PSC acknowledged for the first time that New York State is likely to miss its target of 70% renewable generation by 2030. In response to the report, Governor Hochul's administration has taken several actions, including reconvening the State Energy Planning Board to draft a roadmap for the state to build a clean energy system for New York, taking into account resource adequacy and affordability.

As a result, a more pragmatic dialogue has opened up, and as you'd expect, we're engaged in supporting the process, which provides an opportunity to shape a more balanced approach to the energy transition. In New England, capital investment increased by 7% to £814 million. This largely reflects the continued steady growth delivered through investment in grid modernization and asset health work and leak-prone pipe replacement activity. From a regulatory perspective, in September, the DPU issued its rate case order for our Massachusetts electric business, approving a five-year plan with a revenue increase of around $100 million. The order includes a new regulatory recovery mechanism that provides timely funding for growing capital investment, an updated performance-based rate mechanism providing inflation protection for operating and maintenance costs, and increased allowances to cover the increasing cost of storms.

Taken together, these enhanced recovery mechanisms will enable us to earn closer to the allowed return of 9.35%. The DPU has also approved our Electric Sector Modernization Plan as a strategic roadmap to support decarbonization investments. As part of this, we filed for $2 billion of investment, including upgraded power lines, transformers, substations, and technology platforms over the next five years. We expect the proposed costs and recovery mechanisms will be agreed ahead of the program starting next summer, and over the past summer, Governor Healey's administration has been working to pass comprehensive energy and climate legislation. The proposed bill addresses critical issues we've been advocating for, including setting out an accelerated timeline for siting and permitting of clean energy infrastructure projects, and we're hopeful it will progress before the end of the year.

Finally, in National Grid Ventures, capital investment was 11% lower at £279 million, following completion of the Viking Link to Denmark last year, partially offset by increased investment in National Grid Renewables and the Isle of Grain. We've made good progress on the Propel NY Energy project through our New York Transco joint venture, which will help to deliver offshore wind power from Long Island to the Bronx in New York City and Westchester County. We've made further progress on the fourth phase of the expansion of our Isle of Grain LNG facility, which remains on track for completion next summer. And we've also commenced the sale process for National Grid Renewables. As I said at the start, we've achieved significant progress across all areas of the business in the first half as we continue to support and invest in the energy transition.

Let me stop there and hand over to Andy to walk through the numbers before I come back to talk about priorities for the second half. Andy.

Andy Agg (CFO)

Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. I'd like to highlight that, as usual, we're presenting our underlying results, excluding timing, U.K.-deferred tax, and exceptional items, and that all results are provided at constant exchange rates unless specified. Our final 20% stake in National Gas is reported as a discontinued operation up until 26 September when it was sold. As such, all earnings from this business have been excluded from the underlying earnings of the continuing group.

Starting with our overall performance in the first half, we've delivered strong results with underlying operating profit on a continuing basis at GBP 2 billion, a 15% increase on the prior year, primarily driven by higher revenues across our U.K. and U.S.-regulated businesses and the non-repeat of a prior year environmental charge in our New York business, partially offset by a lower profit in National Grid Ventures. Underlying earnings per share at 28.1 pence was 8% higher than the prior year restated figure. This reflects the improved performance from across our regulated businesses and a slight decline in finance costs, which more than offset the increased share count following the rights issue. As John said, we've made excellent progress with our capital program, with investment from continuing operations at GBP 4.6 billion, another record level, and up 19% year over year.

This has been driven by more connections in our electricity transmission business, accelerated delivery of our ASTI projects, increased pipe replacement across our U.S. gas businesses, and a step up in our SmartPath Connect and CLCPA transmission projects in Upstate New York. In line with our policy, the board has declared an interim dividend of GBP 0.1584 per share, representing 35% of last year's rebased full-year dividend. Turning now to our business segments, starting with U.K. electricity distribution. Underlying operating profit was GBP 573 million, up GBP 10 million versus the prior year. Increased revenues were partially offset by higher controllable costs, which were GBP 21 million higher, as we prioritized activities to strengthen the business for the remainder of RIIO-ED2. This included spend on field, customer, and asset management teams and costs to implement new distribution system operator functionality.

We expect the full-year controllable cost performance to be broadly in line with the prior year. We're also on track to deliver our target of GBP 100 million of synergy benefits by FY26, having delivered GBP 58 million to date through leveraging our increased buying power, working more efficiently at the 48 joint transmission and distribution sites across the UK, and delivering savings from combining support functions. Capital investment was GBP 647 million for the half year, an increase of GBP 39 million compared to the prior period, primarily driven by higher spend on reinforcement work and asset replacement.

In our UK electricity transmission business, underlying operating profit was GBP 724 million, up GBP 68 million compared with the prior period. A strong first half performance was driven by higher allowed revenues and lower controllable costs as we deliver further cost efficiencies. Capital investment was GBP 1.3 billion, 43% higher than the prior period.

This reflects work on our RIIO-T2 projects, including customer connections, as well as the step up in investment on our ASTI projects, notably Eastern Green Link 1, Yorkshire Green, and our North London Reinforcement projects. Finally, in the UK, the electricity system operator delivered an underlying operating profit of £115 million. Moving now to the US, where underlying operating profit for New York was £288 million, £173 million higher than the prior year, reflecting higher net revenue driven by an increase in rates and the non-repeat of an environmental charge in the prior period. This was partially offset by an increase in depreciation, reflecting the new rate case in our downstate gas businesses, KEDNY and KEDLI. Capital investment was £1.6 billion.

This was GBP 352 million higher than the prior year, helped by a further step up in investment in the SmartPath Connect and CLCPA transmission projects in upstate New York, and increased investment in our gas distribution networks, reflecting the additional workload approved in our downstate gas rate case. In New England, underlying operating profit was GBP 237 million, GBP 26 million higher than the prior period. This reflects high rates in our Massachusetts electric and gas businesses, driven by the annual performance-based rates mechanism, and higher rates from the capital tracker in the gas business, partly offset by higher depreciation and controllable costs.

Capital investment was GBP 814 million, GBP 50 million higher than the prior year. This was driven by increased asset condition work in our electricity distribution business and higher gas spend, including leak-prone pipe replacement. Moving to National Grid Ventures, where the underlying contribution was GBP 207 million, including joint ventures.

The decrease of GBP 70 million compared to the prior year was primarily due to the one-off post-construction review adjustment on the North Sea Link interconnector in the prior period and lower profitability across the U.S. Ventures businesses. Capital investment across National Grid Ventures was GBP 279 million, GBP 33 million lower than the prior period, largely reflecting the completion of the Viking Link and partially offset by higher investment at our Grain LNG facility as we move closer to completing the fourth phase of capacity expansion. Following the announced intention to sell Grain LNG and National Grid Renewables, these assets will be treated as held for sale for accounting purposes from the 30th of September. Our other activities reported an operating loss of GBP 38 million, GBP 25 million higher than the prior period.

This was principally driven by changes in the value of National Grid Partners investments, which are held at fair value, partially offset by a greater number of property sales in the first half compared with the prior period. Turning to financing costs and tax, net finance costs were £670 million, down 4% compared with the prior year. The benefits of lower average net debt following the rights issue and lower inflation on index linked debt were partially offset by the impact of higher refinancing costs, where we have issued £1.8 billion over the first half. The underlying effective tax rate before joint ventures was 11.9%, 180 basis points higher than the prior year, principally due to a change in profit mix, reflecting the one-off charges impacting the US business last year. Underlying earnings were £1.27 billion, with EPS at £28.1.

On cash flow, cash generated from continuing operations was £2.7 billion, down 12% compared to the prior year. This decrease is driven by timing as we returned the prior year balancing charge over recoveries in the system operator. Excluding timing, cash flow from operations is £570 million higher due to improved cash generation across the U.K. and U.S.-regulated businesses. In total, net debt decreased by £5.1 billion to £38.5 billion compared to the prior year end, reflecting a net cash inflow from continuing operations of £3.5 billion, including the receipt of the rights issue proceeds, beneficial movements and exchange rates, and other non-cash movements of £1.4 billion, and receipt of £686 million from the final 20% sale of national gas. For the full year, we expect net debt to decrease by around £1.5 billion from the March level, assuming a 1.3 U.S. dollar exchange rate.

In terms of forward guidance, we've included detailed guidance for the full year in our results statement, as usual. Relative to our guidance in May, we expect a slightly stronger operating profit for the full year, reflecting the higher ESO contribution prior to sale and higher net revenues in our New York business, partially offset by a weaker U.S. dollar outlook. Therefore, we continue to expect strong operational performance and year-on-year operating profit growth of around 10%, as well as reduced financing costs due to lower average net debt. We anticipate this improved performance to be largely offset by the additional share count.

Before I hand back to John, I wanted to return to the five-year framework we set out in May, where we anticipate that investment of around GBP 60 billion will drive group asset growth of around 10% per annum over the next five years and a strong underlying EPS CAGR of 6-8% from an FY25 baseline. Our framework is underpinned by a supportive regulatory and policy environment, an increasing level of certainty over our multi-year investment program, and a track record of delivery both operationally and financially. Alongside this, we set out a comprehensive financing plan which supports our investment program and allows us to maintain our strong investment-grade credit rating, and looking ahead with an expected asset base of around GBP 100 billion by FY29.

Funding clarity, strong earnings growth, and an inflation-protected dividend, we've further enhanced what I believe is a compelling investor proposition, delivering value creation through both higher asset growth and an attractive dividend yield. With that, I'll hand you back to John.

John Pettigrew (CEO)

Many thanks, Andy. Now, before we move to Q&A, I want to spend the final few minutes setting up our priorities for the remainder of this year as we continue to focus on efficiently delivering our investment program. Starting with the U.S., where nearly half of the GBP 60 billion investment will be spent between now and 2029. Following the result of the U.S. presidential election earlier this week, National Grid is looking forward to working with the new administration.

As a reminder, the vast majority of our investment is determined at the state level, so we'll also continue to focus on working closely with state regulators and policymakers to deliver the infrastructure needed in both our gas and electricity businesses. From a regulatory perspective, we have three key priorities for the remainder of this year. Firstly, having now filed for new rates in our Niagara Mohawk business and received the staff's rebuttal in September, our aim is to reach a settlement next spring. Secondly, with a new rate plan and enhanced recovery mechanisms in place for our Massachusetts electric business, our priority is now to work to earn closer to the allowed return. And thirdly, we're focused on agreeing the costs and recovery mechanisms for our recently approved electricity sector modernization plan in Massachusetts.

Turning to policy, as mentioned earlier, in New York, the governor is developing a new state energy plan, which we expect will supplement the CLCPA scoping plan and address important issues such as resource adequacy and affordability. We're working closely with our stakeholders to ensure it's a comprehensive roadmap to a clean, resilient, and affordable future for our customers. Alongside this, the New York PSC is now working to identify urgent and long-term infrastructure projects to support transportation and building electrification ahead of deploying integrated gas and electricity planning processes. We've advocated for this proactive approach, and we expect to file our response, identifying the near-term infrastructure needs by the end of the month. And finally, Massachusetts will file our climate compliance plan next spring.

This will set out the investments required in our Massachusetts gas network over the next five years and beyond to align to state decarbonization goals while maintaining safe, reliable, and cost-effective service for our customers. Moving to the UK, where our priorities are squarely focused on delivery of our suite of major projects. As mentioned earlier, we expect to have construction underway on the first wave of ASTI projects by the end of this year. Our priority for the second wave is to finalize supply chain contracts. We're already well progressed on this, and I'm confident that by early next year we'll have secured the T1 supply chain contracts for all 17 of the ASTI projects. This includes awarding the HVDC and converter station contracts for Eastern Green Link three and four and Sea Link.

We also expect to finalize our 59 billion HVDC framework, which will ensure we have a route to market for procurement materials for offshore projects in the 2030s and beyond. Outside of the ASTI portfolio, we continue to make good progress on the Hinkley Connection. We expect that the majority of works will be completed by the middle of next year, and on our London Power Tunnels project, we'll commission the Littlebrook to Crayford section over the winter. And finally, we're on track to connect a total of 4.5 gigawatts of clean energy this year, including the Sophia Offshore Wind Farm and the Greenlink Interconnector. On the regulatory front, a key priority will be the development of our RIIO-T3 business plan, which we'll submit in December.

Our TOTEX submission will comprise two elements: a baseline where we have a high degree of cost certainty, including the first wave of our ASTI projects, and a more extensive pipeline covering the second wave of ASTI projects, as well as further projects aligned to the holistic net zero pathway in the NESO's Future Energy Scenarios. In submitting this plan, we expect the outputs of the government's Clean Power Plan and changes driven by connections reform to impact our TOTEX submission to a degree. However, we don't anticipate significant change to our GBP 23 billion of expected investment in electricity transmission to 2029, given the high degree of clarity we have over the first few years of RIIO-T3.

A second priority will be to continue to engage with Ofgem to ensure they recognize the intense level of international competition for capital by putting forward evidence to support the requirement for an attractive financial framework, including returns being at the high end of Ofgem's range, appropriate cash characteristics, and further opportunities for incentives that will drive value for consumers and National Grid. When it comes to policy, our priority is to continue to work closely with DESNZ and the newly created Mission Control as they develop their plan for clean power by 2030 and beyond. We'll continue to advocate for prioritizing a fast-track consenting route for electricity transmission projects as part of a broader set of reforms to the planning regime, bringing forward with urgency a community benefits framework for electricity transmission and developing a clean energy skills pipeline, including reforms to apprenticeship funding.

So, in summary, a new and exciting era of growth is firmly underway at National Grid. Having set out our strategy for the next five years, we've started to deliver on our GBP 60 billion network investment on both sides of the Atlantic. Major capital projects in the U.K. and the U.S. are well underway, and the business is organized and focused to sustain this progress going forwards. This momentum, combined with the unparalleled visibility on our investment plans, underpins our investment proposition of low-risk, high-quality asset growth, strong earnings growth, and an inflation-protected dividend. This is a hugely exciting time for our industry which will continue to create significant opportunities for National Grid today and for many decades to come, a bedrock from which we will deliver long-term value and returns for our shareholders.

So, let me stop there and give you the opportunity to ask me and Andy any questions. Okay, so just looking who we got questions from. Should we start with Pavan from J.P. Morgan?

Pavan Mahbubani (VP)

Everyone, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. I've got two, please. Firstly, can you remind us when you'll be submitting your business plan for the RIIO-T3 period? And is there any early flavor you can give on what we should be expecting, especially when it comes to the mix of CapEx, how you're thinking about baseline versus uncertainty, and how that ties into your five-year frame? And then my second question is on any comment you have on the outcome of US elections, and do you expect this to change your plans for US investment to 2029? Thank you.

John Pettigrew (CEO)

Yeah, thanks, Pavan.

Well, in terms of the business plan, the timetable is we're due to submit the business plan in December this year, at the end of December. Then we'd expect to get a draft determination from Ofgem in the summer, probably June next year, and then final determination in December 2025. In terms of the flavor, as I said in my speech, effectively the plan is separated into two halves. The first half is a baseline, which includes all the projects that we've got confidence that are going to be moving forward, or full confidence they're going to be moving forward, and also certainty on costs for things like the ASTI Wave One projects. The second bit will be a pipeline that will include all the projects that align with the NESO's future energy scenarios.

We're doing that because that's the request from Ofgem in terms of how they want to see the business plan submitted. As I said in my speech, I think different to previous business plans we've had at this stage because some of the CapEx will be impacted by the connections reform in terms of the location of substations, for example, and also by where the government gets with the Clean Power Plan following the advice from NESO this week. Some of that pipeline will vary. We don't think it will impact on the GBP 23 billion that we've set out as part of the GBP 60 billion that takes the CapEx to 2029, but we will see some change of that in the early months of next year as we see the outcome of the connections reform.

It's slightly different to what we've seen typically, but at the high level, it's split into two levels: a baseline and then a pipeline that will give us the confidence we can deliver what we need right out to the end of RIIO-T3. In terms of the U.S. elections, I mean, first of all, to say we're looking forward to working with the new administration. As you know, energy in the U.S., it's important both at the federal and at the state level. We've heard from the new administration how important it is to keep energy prices low and how important security supply is. From our perspective, the vast majority of our capital investment program is determined at the state level with state policymakers and state regulators.

We're not expecting it to have a significant impact on the GBP 60 billion that we set out in May that we'll deliver between now and 2029. Okay, shall I go to Deepa at Bernstein next?

Deepa Venkateswaran (Managing Director, Head of Utilities & Clean Energy Research)

Thank you for taking my questions. I had three questions. So, a couple of them are on ET3 and then one on ED. So, on ET3, you mentioned you want the ROE to be at the upper end of the range. Do you have any expectations on how much operational incentives the package needs to deliver?

The reason I'm asking is clearly on the ASTI, you want to limit your downside, so presumably the upside on TOTEX might be lower. So, if you could just characterize how you think beyond the allowed return, where else you might be able to get some extra returns.

The second question is on the nominal debt allowance in ET3, that clearly helps from a cash flow perspective. How is National Grid thinking about fast money versus slow money in the business plan? Any sort of early hints on that would be helpful. And the last one is a clarification on ED. I think you've generally talked about 100-125 basis points of operational outperformance in that business, but I see in your latest regulatory financial performance reporting, you forecasted 70 basis points for ED2. So, just wondering what's the divergence, presumably given you're saying the synergies, etc., are on track. Thank you.

John Pettigrew (CEO)

Okay, thanks, Deepa. I'll take the first, and then I'll ask Andy to cover the second two. I mean, first of all, in terms of ROE, as we said in May, we were pleased to see as part of the Sector Specific Methodology Decision document that Ofgem had recognized the importance of the regulatory framework being one that is attractive to investors. And in the words that they used within the document itself, the range that they set out, which is 4.6%-6.4%, they talked about the fact that there are reasons where potentially it could be at the top end of that range. And obviously, one of our focal points going forward is to have that conversation and dialogue with Ofgem about why that's so important.

Outside of the rate return, in terms of the incentives, we think, and are continuing to have dialogue with Ofgem on, that there are a number of incentives, Deepa, that would be beneficial to consumers and would be, obviously, if we perform well, beneficial to National shareholders as well, which is in areas like delivering projects early. So, obviously, with the size and scale of the capital problem we've got, clearly being incentivized to deliver those projects as early as possible makes a lot of sense and will create value for customers. And secondly, things like constraint management. So, as you've seen over the last few years, the cost of balancing the system has increased. There are potentially actions that we can take as a constructor maintainer of the assets that potentially could reduce those constraint costs. So, we think there's an opportunity for incentives in those areas as well.

So, those are the types of things that we're discussing with Ofgem at the moment. Andy.

Andy Agg (CFO)

Yeah, thanks. So, on the ED3 or the ED2 question around the 100-125, yes, I think we would always anticipate some differences between our overall forecast for the five years of the rate case or the price control versus what's reported on an annual basis within the RRP. There's several reasons for that. There are some differences between ROE and how it's calculated. But also, as we think about our efficiency plans and how we look to deliver that over the life, we would see record those improvements through the reported return as we crystallize those efficiencies in the outer year. So, not all of it will be in the early years of the RRP. And as I say, we get reported as we move through the outer years.

John Pettigrew (CEO)

Did you want to pick [crosstalk]

Deepa Venkateswaran (Managing Director, Head of Utilities & Clean Energy Research)

The forecast for the full ED2 needed in your RRP wasn't the last year?

Andy Agg (CFO)

They're not nominal at that point as well, apologies. Yes, so as you said, the SSMD was very clear from Ofgem that they've chosen that particular approach in terms of the cost of debt allowance going forward. I think in terms of your broader point then around fast versus slow, I think if you take a step back, we've always said that we are focused on both the return, the allowed return coming out in T3, but also the overall cash characteristics. I think nominal debt is a good step in the right direction in terms of it will accelerate cash.

But I think as we will continue to work with Ofgem to make the case that they're, whether it's through changes in asset lives, the fast-slow mix, they are all different elements. As you know, in T2, we were around 15%. So, a natural rate may be somewhat lower than that, but it would always be something that we'd be looking to have as part of the overall package that we work through with Ofgem.

John Pettigrew (CEO)

Thanks, Deepa. I'll go to Dominic next, and then after Dominic, I'll go to Jenny from Citi. So, Dominic from Barclays, please.

Dominic Nash (Head of European Utilities Research and Managing Director)

Hi there, good morning, and thank you for your presentation. Just a couple of questions from me, sort of kind of following on from earlier ones, I guess.

Firstly, on your earnings expectation of the 6%-8% out in your business plan, I mean, clearly you're using an exchange rate and a CPIH that may or may not be looking a little bit at the high end. But coming back to the T3 review, how much wriggle room do you have to manage your own earnings going forward in light of a nominal return on debt and then your capitalization ratios sort of moving from the notional rates? And how will you be looking at putting that thing through in order to sort of manage your earnings? And subsequent on that one there, do you expect ED3 to also have a nominal cost of debt? My second question is on the US election.

Could you just remind me again how much of your capital spend in the U.S. is from imported goods and what impact and what mitigation strategies could you put in case if there was a material increase in import tariffs? Thank you.

John Pettigrew (CEO)

Okay, well, why don't I let Andy take the first, and I'll take the second. I'll do the second first, Andy. I mean, in terms of our CapEx in the U.S., to be honest, Dominic, the vast majority of it is sourced domestically. So, historically, when I look back, a relatively small proportion of it has been imported on things like steel, but the vast majority of the equipment comes from domestic equipment manufacturers like GE. So, it doesn't impact us hugely if there are any changes to trade tariffs. Andy.

Andy Agg (CFO)

Yeah, thanks, Dominic, for the questions.

I think in terms of the overall impact of T3 on earnings, if you go back to what we said in May when we set out the 6%-8%, I think we were clear that we made what we believe to be sensible and prudent assumptions across the five years, and obviously, that would have taken into account what we expected in terms of some of the initial steps that we were seeing through the SSMD, the consultation at that point, so the question specifically about nominal debt, you shouldn't automatically assume that that will be additive. I think, as always, what will be important with the T3 plan, going back to the points John made around the scale of CapEx in there, is that we will be looking for an overall outcome that delivers what Ofgem have said around being both financeable and, importantly, investable.

And that will, of course, include the right cash characteristics, whether that comes through the nominal debt impact or other things like fast, slow, or the capitalization rate. So, we will continue to work on that, but as much from an insurance-derived framework as in terms of the impact on earnings. And then secondly, on your question around will nominal debt flow through to ED3? Absolutely. I think it's been implemented now, that approach by Ofgem for the sector as a whole. So, I see no reason why it shouldn't read across into ED3.

John Pettigrew (CEO)

Okay, thanks, Dominic. I'll go to Jenny, and then after Jenny, I'll go to Mark Freshney at UBS. So, Jenny.

Jenny Ping (Managing Director)

Hi, thanks very much. A couple of questions from me, please.

Firstly, to John, can you just put it into numbers in terms of that tier one supply chain, what it means in terms of the total CapEx that's covered for the 17 ASTI projects? And then secondly, for Andy, two questions, please.

On the U.S., if I remember correctly, your guidance, your earnings guidance is based on a pre-deferred tax for the U.K., but not for the U.S. Can you just talk a little bit about what you think a change, a reduction in U.S. tax rate would do to the deferred tax line and therefore your earnings line on a hypothetical basis? If I remember correctly, we had this conversation at Trump 1.0, but if you can just remind us the direction of travel there. And then secondly, just on the ESO, obviously, there's a lot of cash that's already recognized because of timing. So, can you give us a sense of the actual cash that you're going to receive at the closing of the ESO just so that we can get our net debt numbers right? Thank you.

John Pettigrew (CEO)

Okay, thanks, Jenny. Well, let me pick up the first and then leave the two and three to Andy. Let me sort of give a broader sort of perspective in terms of where we are with the supply chain, because I know it's a key issue. So, I mean, I think hopefully people are aware that over the last 18 months or so, we've fundamentally reviewed the way that we engage and contract and procure with the supply chain. So, we've made really good progress. So, we've talked in the past about how we ensure that we've got the contractors we need in terms of the work resource.

I was really pleased that we put in place what we call the Great Grid Partnership with seven of our supply chain, which is a 9 billion contract that gives them the visibility to the work that we want them to do and gives us access to that work and gives us confidence that we'll have the contractors that we need. We've also been progressing the, as I mentioned in my speech, the HVDC and Converter Station Framework Agreement, which is a GBP 59 billion contract. Actually, I've been really pleased with the response that we've had. All the major cable manufacturers and converter station manufacturers have responded to that framework agreement, and we're hopeful that will be in place very, very soon. Then when you get down into the individual projects, we've separated ASTI into the first wave of six projects.

Five of them, we have contracts in place already and are already in the process of starting construction. And the sixth, which is the Grain to Tilbury project, we will have planning in place by the end of the calendar year and the contracts in place by the end of the fiscal year. So, for that first wave, we've been very confident that we've got the contractors and the equipment that we need. We're then moving on to the second wave. So, these are projects like Eastern Green Link 3 and 4, Norwich to Tilbury, and those types of projects.

And again, we're working through the procurement process. We're looking at opportunities to standardize equipment so that we have more access to the supply chain. We're actually extending the length of contracts that we have.

So, across the group, actually, more than 50% of all the super grid transformers that we need have already been procured out to 2030, which puts us in a very strong position. We'll also have agreement with Ofgem that we can actually make upfront payments to the supply chain to lock in capacity that we need for manufacturing. So, again, when we look across all of that, we feel confident for the tier one contractors that we'll have everything we need in place early next year for all of the 17 ASTI projects. So, Andy.

Andy Agg (CFO)

Yeah, thanks, Jenny. Firstly, on U.S. and potential tax changes, I mean, clearly it's very early days, and there's been lots of things talked about or mooted that may happen. We will, of course, have to wait and see precisely what does or doesn't happen in the new year.

But as a quick reminder, as you said, when the rate was changed a few years ago, it's effectively economically neutral for us because the way U.S. regulation works is effectively tax, the net tax charges included with the amounts we're allowed to collect from customers. And therefore, a change in the rate will effectively flow through into rates as well. So, net-net, there's no underlying earnings impact. And of course, in terms of cash impacts, that will need to be worked through based on what we see if any rules do change and then how that's reflected in regulation. But we wouldn't expect any significant earnings impact from that. And in terms of the system operator sale, the actual cash received was very close to the 630.

If you look back in the depths of the results statement this morning, we're very clear that the provision for the remaining return of the over-collected recoveries from the previous year is included in the held for sale business, as is the cash that was associated with giving that money back. So, that was already stripped out of our numbers, and therefore we did receive very close to the 630, and therefore that's what you should allow for in your net debt projections.

John Pettigrew (CEO)

Okay, thanks, Andy. Should we go to Mark Freshney? And after Mark, we'll go to Robert from Morgan Stanley. So, Mark, if you could have your question, please.

Mark Freshney (Managing Director)

Hey, no, thanks. Thanks for taking my question.

So, when I listened to your response to earlier questions, the potential change in Ofgem remuneration of debt costs moving to a nominal cost, potential lower deferred tax charge in the US, less netting that off on the asset base, which was the response to the last question, it seems to me that if I add up all of these things within the five-year frame, there's certainly a lot of upside pressure on earnings. And my question to you is, would you agree with that? And just secondly, you spoke about being in a strong position on transformers, which I think is one major, major crunch point.

But if I had to really try to pin you down, John, I mean, we know that one customer has basically taken up all of one supplier's transformers for two years and has caused a lot of panic with some of your competitors in the U.S. In one word, are you confident of getting all the transformers you expect to get through to 2030?

John Pettigrew (CEO)

Thanks, Mark. Let me take the second, then I'll ask Andy to take the first. I mean, the simple answer is, Mark, that we've always known, or we've known for a couple of years now, that there was going to be an elongation in the lead times for super grid transformers. You would have seen some articles this week that people talked about three to four years. But we've been adjusting for that for quite a while now.

And therefore, we do have confidence that we can gain access to the super grid transformers, both in the U.K. and in the U.S., that we need over the period. As I said, we've been extending the time frames that we're sharing with the equipment manufacturers. So, they've got visibility of what's needed. And when we've come to the procurement process, we've found that actually we have been able to get access to and to procure those super grid transformers. I mean, just to add a little bit more flavour to it, one of the things we have done in the last 12 months is built up a stronger relationship with the equipment manufacturers outside of the sort of normal contracting process and separating out quite often the procurement of equipment from the EPC contracts. And in the U.S., we've also been extending the supplier base for.