National Grid - Earnings Call - H1 2026

Transcript

Speaker 2

Good morning and welcome to National Grid's half-year results presentation. I'm Angela Broad, Head of Investor Relations, and it's great to have so many of you on the call today. Firstly, please can I draw your attention to the cautionary statement at the front of the pack? As usual, a Q&A will follow the presentation. Please join via the conference call to ask a question by using Star One, or use the tab at the bottom of the webcast to submit a written question. All of today's materials are available on our website, and of course, for any further queries after the call, please do feel free to reach out to me or one of the IR team. With that, I'd now like to hand you over to our CEO, John Pettigrew. John.

Speaker 1

Many thanks, Angela. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. As you know, this is my last set of results, and I'll be handing over to Zoe, who becomes Chief Executive on the 17th of November. Before we get started with the results presentation, let me pass it over to Zoe to say a few words.

Speaker 0

Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone.

Speaker 2

Today's results are an important moment for National Grid and for me personally, as I pick up the baton from John. I want to take a moment to recognize his remarkable contribution over a decade as CEO. The strong foundations he leaves behind are a testament to his leadership and the dedication of our National Grid team. Since joining as CEO designate on the 1st of September, I've had the privilege of meeting with many colleagues and stakeholders. What stands out to me is the scale and ambition of what we're delivering, transforming our networks and investing at pace. Our GBP 60 billion capital investment is not just a number; it's a commitment to future-proofing networks so we can meet the surge in demand we're seeing and ensure the millions of homes and businesses we serve have the reliable and clean energy they need at a price they can afford.

As I step into my role in the coming days, my immediate focus will be on maintaining momentum, staying focused on performance, and delivering safely and responsibly. I will approach this with a clear-eyed view of the challenges and exciting opportunities ahead. I believe in the vital function energy companies play in driving growth and prosperity. I'm committed to ensuring National Grid plays its part with an unrelenting focus on operational excellence and capital discipline as we continue to deliver for our customers and create value for our shareholders. I look forward to meeting all of you in due course, but for now, I'll hand to John and Andy to take you through the results.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Zoe. Turning to our half-year results. As ever, I'm here with Andy Agg, and once we've been through our respective presentations, we'll be happy to answer your questions. It's been a really positive first half as we've continued to build on our strong foundations to deliver excellent operational and financial performance. The investments we're making in our networks have never been more important to ensure continued resilience, enable economic growth, deliver cleaner energy, and meet growing power demand. These drivers underpin the strong visibility we have in our investment program, supported by our regulators. This, in turn, gives me huge confidence in National Grid's ability to carry on delivering a compelling investment proposition with investment growth around 10% per annum and underlying earnings per share growth of 6%-8%, whilst maintaining a strong balance sheet and delivering an inflation-protected dividend.

Before I come to our performance, I want to highlight three key areas which reinforce my confidence in our ability to deliver on our plans. Firstly, the strong progress we've made in securing the supply chain to deliver record levels of investment. As you know, a big focus over the last two years has been to secure the supply chain for our largest suite of major projects in the U.K., the Accelerated Strategic Transmission Investments, or ASTI. Today, I'm pleased to say we're in a really strong position. All six of our Wave One projects are already under construction, with work progressing well. Our GBP 9 billion Great Grid Partnership, covering the delivery of the eight onshore projects within Wave Two, is now up and running with our seven strategic partners.

We are making great progress with the remaining three Wave Two offshore projects, where we have completed the contracting for SeaLink and announced the preferred suppliers for Eagle Three and Four, with contracts expected to be signed in the next few months. Once complete, we will have secured the supply chain for all 17 ASTI projects, a significant achievement. As a result, over three-quarters of our GBP 60 billion investment plan is now underpinned by delivery mechanisms enabling us to ramp up our capital delivery. We have invested over GBP 5 billion in the first half, another record for the group, and we remain on track to deploy over GBP 11 billion of capital investment this year, in line with our guidance. The second area to highlight is the continued momentum we are seeing from both our regulatory and policy perspective.

On the regulatory front, we've built on the strong foundations we set last year in the US, with around 75% of our five-year investment plan approved within our rate cases. We've also seen some important policy developments. As you know, New York State announced last year that it's likely to miss its target of 70% renewable generation by 2030. As a result, we've seen a shift in the last half towards an all-of-the-above approach when it comes to balancing clean energy goals with affordability and reliability. For example, in September, following submission of our long-term gas plan, the PSC issued an order supporting the proposed Northeast Supply Enhancement, or NESSI, pipeline. If built, the capacity provided by the pipeline would materially enhance reliability and resilience, while also potentially reducing energy costs for New Yorkers by up to $6 billion.

In the U.K., I'll come to regulatory developments shortly, but on the policy front, the government is continuing to look at different ways to support faster delivery of infrastructure and accelerate economic growth. Alongside their planning reform legislation targeted at large infrastructure projects, which should support delivery of projects in the 2030s, they've also launched consultations, which include proposals to allow electricity distribution network operators to carry out simple reinforcement activities without full planning permission, and a revised fast-track consenting process. If implemented, this could have important benefits for future transmission projects. It is clear we're seeing strong regulatory support for the investments we're making, as well as the policy progress to assist in the delivery of future projects. Thirdly, the near-term actions we're taking to support load growth in the U.K.

We're working with the government and industry, including US big tech companies, as they seek to develop the U.K.'s AI infrastructure, including the creation of data centers within AI growth zones like the recently announced ones in Blythe and Cobalt Park. These projects represent tens of billions of GBP of investment in U.K. infrastructure and are evidence of the demand growth we've forecast in our RIIO-T3 business plan, which is designed to connect up to 19 gigawatts of additional demand over the five years to March 2031, around half of which is expected to be connecting data centers. We're now working hard to facilitate these connections, including working with the government through the AI Energy Council to support the development of more AI growth zones so we can deliver the investment needed to meet growing energy requirements.

Let me now turn to our financial performance, where we've delivered a strong set of results in the first half. On an underlying basis, that is excluding the impact of timing and exceptional items, operating profit was up 13% to GBP 2.3 billion, reflecting increased regulatory revenues across our US and U.K. electricity transmission businesses. This strong operating performance drove an increase in underlying earnings per share of 6% to GBP 29.8. As you've already heard, our business delivered a record GBP 5.1 billion of investment, up 12% year on year at constant currency. In line with the policy, the board has declared an interim dividend of GBP 16.35 per share. Turning next to reliability and safety, I'm pleased to say reliability has remained strong across our U.K. and US networks over the first half of the year.

As we look ahead to the winter, we're well prepared with winter readiness plans in place. The National Grid ESO recently published its winter outlook report for the U.K., in which they forecast electricity margins around 10%, the highest since 2019. In the U.S., whilst we anticipate adequate electricity margins, gas availability across the coldest days of winter remains a focus, especially in extreme weather events. Our teams will work closely with upstream suppliers to mitigate any risks. In July, the National Grid ESO published its report investigating the outage, following the fire at our North Hyde substation, and we're working closely with the government, National Grid ESO, Ofgem, and industry to progress the report's recommendations. Safety, as always, remains a critical focus across our business. In the last six months, our Lost-Time Injury Frequency Rate was 0.09 inside our group target.

We continue to promote a culture of safety excellence, including, for example, identifying new ways to enhance our safety protocols, such as the use of digital job briefs to increase hazard recognition in the field. Moving now to our operating performance across the group, starting with electricity distribution. Capital investment increased by 17% to GBP 756 million, reflecting increased asset replacement and load-related reinforcement activity. I'm pleased to say that we've now delivered over GBP 100 million of synergy savings, six months ahead of target, following the U.K. electricity distribution acquisition in 2021. These synergies have been achieved through smarter procurement, operational efficiencies across our shared sites, and integration of support functions in the group. In October, we also saw the publication of Ofgem sector-specific methodology consultation for RIIO-T3, which builds on the foundations of the T3 framework.

We welcome the fact that Ofgem has directed networks to use a long-term planning horizon. This will ensure that delivery of the next price control also takes into account investment drivers in the decades ahead, including load growth, asset health, resilience, and renewable generation. We've also made good progress on Connections Reform, including preparing flexible offers to customers that are likely to secure a queue position. This allows them to progress their projects ahead of a formal offer, enabling faster connections for renewables and low-carbon technologies. Finally, we continue to build our distribution system operator capabilities with the launch of the Demand Turn-Up Flexibility Market, incentivizing increased demand as an alternative to curtailing generation.

Moving to U.K. electricity transmission, where capital investment increased by 31% to GBP 1.7 billion, including construction of new substations to support load growth, and progress on our GBP 1 billion London Power Tunnels project, where we've now energized the first 2.5 km to enhance substation and Crawford. We've also been working hard to find innovative ways to expand system capacity. For example, we began work on a new substation in Uxbridge Moor, West London, with an innovative design which will have a 70% smaller footprint and avoids the use of SF6, a potent greenhouse gas. This substation will support over a dozen new data centers and is expected to deliver 1.8 GW of new capacity, equivalent to powering a mid-sized city. We've also leveraged the approach to procurement frameworks used in our strategic infrastructure business.

Including, for example, in July, when we signed a GBP 8 billion electricity transmission partnership with seven regional partners to deliver substation infrastructure across the U.K. transmission network. Turning to policy, we're working closely with NISAW and customers to support Connections Reform. Once NISAW publishes its updated queue, we'll have a clear view of the sequencing of the specific projects required, and we can then turn our efforts to meeting these connection dates at pace. On regulation, Ofgem published its draft determination for the RIIO-T3 framework in early July, with our response published in late August. This included changes we believe are needed to the baseline return and the incentives framework to allow high-performing networks to achieve a globally competitive overall return.

We've also proposed a number of refinements to streamline our funding mechanisms, enable us to recover the efficient costs of our investments, and progress projects at a pace expected by our stakeholders. As you'd expect, we've engaged heavily with Ofgem at all levels of the organization ahead of the final determination, which is expected in early December. We expect to take a decision in late February or early March, following the license drafting process. Turning now to strategic infrastructure. As you've heard, our focus has been to ramp up delivery of the Wave One ASTI projects, whilst also ensuring we're securing the supply chain and relevant consents for Wave Two. Specifically, on our Wave One projects, examples of our progress include our offshore Eagle One and Two projects, where the cable manufacturing and site works for the Southern Converter stations are underway.

Our onshore Yorkshire Green upgrade project, where the last of eight 200-ton transformers has now been delivered. The North London reinforcement project, where we finished reconducting three circuits, installing over 190 km of cables. We have also completed four public consultations this year, including the submission of two major development consent order applications, SeaLink and Norwich to Tilbury, with both submissions now accepted by the planning inspectorate, a major milestone. On the regulatory front, we continue to engage with Ofgem to find a resolution to our request for a delay event on the Eagle One project, and are encouraged by the discussions to date. We expect these negotiations to reach a final decision over the next few months. Coming to the US and starting with New York, where we have continued to make strong progress across our operations.

Capital investment reached GBP 1.6 billion, up 5%, driven by an increase in maintenance replacement expenditure. In addition, we have continued to make strong progress on our $4 billion upstate upgrade, including our SmartPath Connect transmission project, where our segment is on track to be ready to energize by the end of the year. Our Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act, or CLCPA Phase One and Two projects, are where we expect the first round of permit approvals by the end of the calendar year. On the regulatory and policy front, in addition to the order from the PSC on the NESSI pipeline and the approval of the Niagara Mohawk joint proposal, we are also engaging on the draft New York State Energy Plan. Released earlier this year, the plan outlines long-term strategies to meet New York's energy needs.

It emphasizes the importance of infrastructure investment and recognizes the enduring role of the gas network in maintaining reliability, affordability, and security of supply. Once finalized later this year, the plan will influence future regulatory decisions and utility planning across the state. In New England, capital investment increased by 23% to GBP 1 billion, reflecting increased spend on asset condition and system capacity in both electricity transmission and distribution, 220,000 smart meter installations, and the further rollout of our fault location isolation and service restoration program. We have also agreed partners for our strategic procurement framework, which will support over $3 billion of contracts over the next five years. Finally, on regulation and policy, we have agreed around $600 million of allowances under the Electric Sector Modernization Plan, largely focused on electric vehicle highway charging and IT infrastructure.

We are continuing to work with the Governor's Office to advance the energy affordability bill. Moving to Nashua Adventures, capital investment was GBP 69 million, supporting asset refurbishment across our interconnector and US generation portfolios. Operationally, we have had a strong six months, with our interconnector fleet at 90% availability and our generation fleet achieving 96% reliability. We have also progressed the Propel Transmission project through our Transco joint venture, where EPC contracts are now under development. Once complete, the project will help to deliver power from Long Island to the Bronx in New York City and Westchester County. We have also streamlined our portfolio, having completed the sale of Nashua Renewables in May and announced the sale of Grain LNG in August. With all regulatory approvals received, we expect completion in the coming weeks.

Let me stop there and hand over to Andy to walk you through the numbers before I come back to talk about our priorities for the second half. Andy. Thank you, John. Good morning, everyone. I'd like to highlight, as usual, we're presenting our underlying results, excluding timing, U.K.-deferred tax, and exceptional items, and that all results are provided at constant exchange rates unless specified. Starting with our overall performance in the first half, we've delivered strong results with underlying operating profit on a continuing basis at GBP 2.3 billion, a 13% increase from the prior year, primarily driven by higher regulated revenues in U.K. electricity transmission, reflecting growth in the asset base, and higher revenues in our U.S.-regulated businesses following recent rate cases, partially offset by the sale of the electricity system operator last year.

Strong operating profit growth, partially offset by higher finance costs and a full impact in the half from the rights-issued shares, has led to a 6% increase in earnings per share to GBP 29.8. We've continued to make good progress with our capital program, with investment from continuing operations at GBP 5.1 billion, another record level, and up 12% year over year. In line with our policy, the board has declared an interim dividend of GBP 16.35 per share, representing 35% of last year's full-year dividend. Moving now to our business segments, starting with U.K. electricity distribution. Underlying operating profit was GBP 551 million, down GBP 22 million versus the prior year, reflecting lower revenues due to headwinds from Ofgem's real price effects mechanism, which more than offset the benefit of revenue indexation and recovery of higher TOTEX allowances and higher depreciation.

In the period, we exceeded our cumulative three-year target of GBP 100 million of synergy benefits by FY2026, six months ahead of schedule, through leveraging our increased buying power, delivering savings from integrating support functions, and working more efficiently at joint transmission and distribution sites across the U.K. Capital investment was GBP 756 million for the half-year, an increase of GBP 109 million compared to the prior period, primarily driven by higher asset replacement and refurbishment and higher load-related network reinforcement. In our U.K. electricity transmission business, underlying operating profit was GBP 846 million, up GBP 122 million compared with the prior period. A strong first half performance was driven by higher allowed revenues, partially offset by higher depreciation. Capital investment was GBP 1.7 billion, 31% higher than the prior period. This reflects our ongoing spend on substation build-out, as well as the significant step-up in investment on our ASTI projects and ASTI enabling works.

Moving now to the US, where underlying operating profit for New York was GBP 443 million, GBP 167 million higher than the prior year, as a result of higher net revenue reflecting the growth of the business as we upgrade and reinforce our networks and the recovery of previously unremunerated costs following recent rate case updates. This was partially offset by increased depreciation, reflecting a higher asset base and higher costs, including property taxes and environmental provisions. Capital investment was GBP 1.6 billion. This was GBP 82 million higher than the prior year, from a further step-up in the pace of our maintenance replacement activity under our downstate gas rate case and increased spend on smart meters. Partially offset by lower costs on SmartPath Connect as we near completion of this project.

In New England, underlying operating profit was GBP 292 million, GBP 65 million higher than the prior period, following higher revenues reflecting our growing asset base and improved incentive performance, partly offset by higher depreciation and other investment-related costs as we ramp up the capital program. Capital investment was GBP 958 million, GBP 178 million higher than the prior year. This was driven by increased asset condition and system capacity investments and smart meter installations, partly offset by reduced maintenance replacement work. Moving to National Grid Ventures, where the underlying contribution was GBP 227 million, including joint ventures. The increase of GBP 19 million compared to the prior year was primarily due to the benefit of depreciation having ceased in Grain LNG following its classification as held for sale. This accounting treatment for Grain, along with the sale of National Grid Renewables, drove a reduction in capital investment to GBP 69 million.

Our other activities reported an operating loss of GBP 27 million, GBP 11 million lower than the prior period. Principally driven by lower insurance costs and the non-repeat of fair value losses in the National Grid Partners portfolio. Turning to financing costs and tax, net finance costs were GBP 678 million, an increase of 4% compared with the prior year, due to higher average net debt and the impact of higher inflation on indexed linked debt. The underlying effective tax rate before joint ventures was 11.3%, 60 basis points lower than the prior year, principally due to the benefit of higher capital allowances in our U.K.-regulated businesses and a change in the profit mix. Underlying earnings were GBP 1.5 billion, up 16%, with earnings per share at GBP 29.8. On cash flow, cash generated from continuing operations was GBP 3.6 billion, up 35% compared to the prior year.

This increase is driven by improved profitability across the U.K. and U.S. and favorable movements in working capital. In total, net debt increased by GBP 1.5 billion to GBP 41.8 billion in the period. With strong cash inflows from operations and the GBP 1.5 billion of National Grid Renewables sale proceeds helping to offset the continued growth in capital investment. For the full year, we expect net debt to increase by around GBP 1 billion from the half-year, including the Grain LNG sale proceeds and assuming a 1.35 US dollar exchange rate. As John set out earlier, we've continued to make significant progress in capital delivery, securing the supply chain and advancing our regulatory and policy agenda.

As I've previously set out, our plans were designed to be robust against a range of outcomes with respect to interest and exchange rates, and I remain confident in our ability to deliver in line with our five-year framework. Turning to forward guidance, we have included detailed guidance for the full year in our results statement as usual. Following strong performance over the first half of the year, we expect a modestly higher underlying EPS relative to our guidance in May. The impact of a weaker US dollar and a slightly higher share count due to SCRIP uptake is expected to be more than offset by improved operating performance in the regulated businesses and slightly lower financing costs. With that, I'll hand you back to John. Many thanks, Andy.

Now, before we move to Q&A, I want to spend the final few minutes setting our priorities for the remainder of the year as we continue to invest across our networks. Starting in the US and New York, where we have a number of priorities, including further work with the state on its energy plan to shape a roadmap that balances decarbonization, affordability, and reliability. Ongoing work with Williams in our role as the sole offtaker of the NESSI pipeline as they look to secure regulatory approvals, which are expected later this year. Preparing for our downstate New York gas filing due for submission next spring, ensuring we're able to continue to invest in safety and reliability while supporting customer needs and managing affordability.

In Massachusetts, our priorities include filing our gas distribution rate case, which is now planned for January, to allow us more time to engage with new stakeholders and propose measures aligned with evolving state policy goals. Working with the state on its affordability bill and producing our climate compliance plan, an important enabler of the clean energy transition. Turning to the U.K., in electricity transmission, our priorities are clear: to engage with Ofgem to deliver a RIIO-T3 framework that allows high-performing networks to achieve a globally competitive overall return and mechanisms that enable us to deliver at the scale and pace required. Work with the AI Energy Council as part of our efforts to collaborate across the energy and tech industries.

We build on the good progress we have made in ramping up construction across our Wave One ASTI projects, whilst also engaging closely with stakeholders and communities as we progress our development consent orders. In electricity distribution, our key priority is preparing our response to the RIIO-ED3 sector-specific methodology consultation ahead of Ofgem's decision expected in the spring. In National Grid Ventures, we have two key priorities: developing and winning new competitive transmission opportunities in the US, including an ISO-led opportunity in New England, and closing the sale of Grain LNG, completing our announced divestments. Now, before we take your questions, as this is my last results presentation, I want to reflect briefly on the journey I have been privileged to be part of over the past 10 years. It has been a truly transformative decade for National Grid.

When I presented my first set of results back in 2016, the business looked very different, with the majority of our operations in gas. Today, we're over three-quarters electric, a fundamental shift that reflects the successful portfolio repositioning that has enabled us to pivot towards growth and a geographical footprint that is more balanced across the U.K. and the U.S. I'm incredibly proud of how we've responded as an organization to meet the needs of our customers by delivering extraordinary organic growth. We've deployed nearly three times the level of capital investment compared to 2016, and the growth in regulated asset base is expected to be over 10% this year compared to just 4% a decade ago. Our business is incredibly strong, giving me huge confidence in National Grid's ability to continue to deliver a compelling investment proposition.

Beyond the numbers, I'm very proud to be handing over an organization where our values and the critical role we play for our customers are the driving force of our ambitions. Zoe is the right person to lead National Grid into this next chapter, and I know she will find the clarity of our mission, the scale of the opportunities ahead to be a source of strength in the years to come. Let me stop there and give you the opportunity to ask Andy and me any questions. Okay, we have lots of questions, so I'm going to perhaps start with Pavan from JP Morgan, and then after Pavan, perhaps I could ask Sarah from Morgan Stanley to ask her question. Pavan, if we could have your question, please. Hi team, good morning and thank you for your presentation.

John, I just wanted to congratulate you on the results you've delivered during your leadership and wish you all the best for your future beyond National Grid. I've got two questions, please. Firstly, on T3 expectations. Can you give a bit more color on your dialogue with Ofgem, looking at particularly some of the data points we've had earlier this year on the U.K. water CMA provisional determinations and on Sizewell? Do you foresee upward pressure on the return on equity? My second question is on net debt. The net debt guidance looks better for the full year than in May, even accounting for the proceeds of disposals. You highlighted the working capital effect in your speech. I was wondering if you could give a bit more color on the drivers of this and whether it's a sort of.

Effect is something that should persist into future years. Just trying to get an idea of the basis. Thank you. Thanks, Pavan. Let me do question one now. I'll hand it over to Andy to do question two. Thank you for your kind remarks. In terms of RIIO-T3, if I just take you back to our response to the draft determination, in that we said very clearly to Ofgem there were two fundamental areas that we wanted to focus on between the draft determination and the final determination. The first was the overall investable framework, and the second was the workability of the regulatory framework. In terms of the investment framework itself, you would have seen in our draft determination that we made the argument that we believe the overall return needs to be comparable with what we'd see internationally.

Therefore, based on what was in the draft determination, we set out that we felt that the base return should be higher. I think given what we've seen in the provisional CMA decision on water and things like Sizewell, I think that reinforces some of the arguments that we've made. We also said, as part of the financial package, that we needed a lot more detail on the incentives, and that's been an area of focus since we made that response to the draft determination with Ofgem at all levels of the organization. In addition to the financial framework, we also said we needed a framework that was actually deliverable.

In particular, what we meant by that was, given the scale of the CapEx that we need to deliver, we need to have the ability to be able to make decisions quickly and then to move nimbly through the process, in particular in terms of when Ofgem sets the allowances and actually agrees that the projects are needed, that it aligns with the development framework for the projects. That has been the focus, as you can imagine, with what, four weeks to go. There continues to be a lot of dialogue, but the dialogue remains in those two broad categories. With that, I'll hand to Andy. Yeah. Hi, Pavan. Thanks. You remember back at year-end, we guided to an increase in net debt of around GBP 6 billion, but that was before you take account, as you say, of any of the transaction proceeds.

By the time you allow for the two disposals and the FX movement that we've seen, it's a relatively small difference, net difference compared to the sort of the GBP 1.5 billion increase that we're now guiding to after you take account of all of that. That small difference is a combination of the slightly higher SCRIP uptake that we've seen over the summer, and as you say, a little bit of working capital, but it's relatively small in the context of our balance sheet. I don't see that as being a significant sort of enduring shift. Okay. Thanks, Andy. Should I go to Sarah from Morgan Stanley next, and then perhaps Mark Freshney from UBS after that? Sarah? Thank you very much. Firstly, a very big welcome, Zoe. It's always nice to hear another Aussie accent.

John, another very big thank you to you and wishing you all the best in the next chapter. Two questions from me, please, and actually they're both on U.K. electricity distribution. Firstly, on the ED operational RORI performance, please. Just wondering any further color you can provide on how that's tracking against this year's 50 basis points guide. As we look forward, anything further you can please add on that pathway back to the 100 basis points. Quickly, a bit more on last month's SSMC for ED. Completely appreciate very early days, but wondering if you can add a bit more on your thoughts, please, if there was anything that surprised you in the document, or mostly, as you already mentioned, mainly just building on what we've already seen through the ET process. Thank you. Yeah, thanks, Sarah.

I mean, in terms of the operation performance of ED, I'd say it's very much on track to where we expected to be at the half-year. As you would have seen in the results, we continue to get the impact of the real price effects that we talked about in May. We are seeing improved performance this year. We are on track and are guiding towards the 50 basis points of our performance this year. We remain of the view that we'll get closer to the 100 basis points by the end of ED2. That is very consistent with what we said in May, and the performance of the first six months is sort of reinforcing that. In terms of the sector-specific methodology consultation, I'd say it's very broad, which I think is a good thing at this stage. It is very much aligned with our expectations.

I think we were particularly pleased to see that. Ofgem has set out that they intend to take a very long-term strategic view of distribution going forward over multiple price control periods and that ED3 will be set in that context. I think we were also pleased to see that in the document, they talked about the need for the investment in distribution to stay ahead of the needs of customers. Given that we are expecting to see an increase in EVs and heat pumps and those types of things, I think we were pleased to see that. It was very consistent in terms of its messaging. In terms of the need for an investable proposition, and also that the incentives for things like innovation would be important. Broadly, I would say it met our expectations.

It's very broad, and I think it's given us a landscape in which we can respond quite sensibly in time for the decision in the spring. Okay, if I can move to Mark at UBS, and then perhaps after Mark, we can take Dominic from Barclays. Mark. Hi John. Congratulations, and looking forward to seeing what you'll be doing next. I have two questions. Firstly, looking back over the last two or three Ofgem price controls, do you feel the Ofgem have given you allowances that are sufficient for you to do all of the maintenance that you would have liked to have done? Just secondly, on infrastructure in general, I mean, National Grid has been at the center of capital delivery in the U.K. at a time when there wasn't much of it around.

Clearly, the government have been clear, we're not going to cut capital investment in the U.K. We're going to keep going. What do you think the U.K. needs to do to get all of this CapEx done, not just in your area, but across the whole piece? Thank you, Mark. In terms of the context of the last two or three price controls and have we had sufficient allowances, I think the blunt answer to that is yes. When I look at the outcomes, which are probably the most important thing, we've continued to deliver world-class reliability. At 99.69%, as you know, I quote quite often. Also, if I just take a broader perspective and look at the number of unplanned outages we have on the network, so unexpected failures of assets today compared to 10 years ago, actually it's about half as many today.

Actually, the overall health of the network looks very resilient and strong, and therefore, I think we have had sufficient maintenance CapEx to do the work that we need to do. Obviously, as we look to T3, that continues to be dialogued with Ofgem as we get towards the FD, but certainly in the past, I think we've got a network that's reliable and resilient. When I look at the data, it suggests that it's in a strong position. In terms of infrastructure, the broader question, I mean, for me, I think the things that are important, Mark, I think there's bipartisan recognition that infrastructure investment is a key enabler of economic growth in the U.K. In order to do that efficiently, having stable and predictable fiscal and regulatory frameworks is really important and something that we've focused on. I think we still.

Would still like to see more done around the planning regime in the U.K. The planning legislation is going through, and I think that will streamline the process, but I do think there is more opportunity to do more so that the infrastructure can be built more efficiently and more quickly to enable that economic growth. For me, I think those are two things that are really important. Okay, let me move on to Dominic, and then perhaps after Dominic, we could do Ahmed at Jefferies. Dominic, would you like to ask your question? Yes, good morning. Richard again, thank you, John, for your sort of decade as CEO and I think 30-ish years at Grid, and also to welcome Zoe to the role and wish you all the best for the future. Two questions for me, please. Firstly.

There's clearly a U.K. government focus on some sort of affordability. Within that, I think the select committee last week brought up network windfalls again. I think Ofgem are now meant to sort of consult on this by, I think, beginning of 2026. If you could give us an update on whether this select committee recommendation will change Ofgem's point of view on network windfalls. Secondly, on the GBP 35 billion of TOTEX that you had in your draft for RIIO-T3, there's clearly a lot of uncertainty around that. I think NISO is publishing a new connection regime shortly.

I was hoping that you could provide us color as to actually what you expect to be in it, like what's going to change, and how much clarity will that actually put onto the TOTEX number that will get published in the FD on your part, and how much of that's already been secured. Thank you. Yeah, thanks, Dominic. In terms of the select committee last week, it was an issue that had already been looked at. Just to be clear, the work that we've done demonstrates that we've certainly not received any windfall profits. The analysis that they were talking about, the select committee, I think was a snapshot looking at expected inflation versus actual inflation. If you look at it over the medium to long term, then it's very clear that there is no windfall profit. I think that was.

The debate that was going on there. Ofgem, as you know, have already looked at this issue and have concluded that it's not in consumers' interest to reopen it. From that perspective, and I think Ofgem actually responded to the consultation by saying they've already looked at it as well. The consultation you mentioned for next spring, actually, I don't think it's got anything to do with windfall profits. I actually think it's to do with the way that network charges are allocated through the standing charge for suppliers. I think it's that that Ofgem are looking at, rather than the windfall profits. In terms of the.

35 billion TOTEX you're referencing, so just to be clear, when we submitted the business plan for RIIO-T3, we said that over that five-year period, we could spend up to GBP 35 billion, depending on basically how quickly connections come forward. The GBP 35 billion was split out into sort of baseline CapEx, which included the traditional reliability, resilience, asset health, as well as those projects we had absolute certainty on, but it then had a significant amount of CapEx that would be linked to the speed by which connections come forward. What we're expecting to see over the next period is new connection offers will go out to those customers that are classed as protected, which means they've got planning consents and have started construction for connections in 2027, 2028, in January next year.

For those for 2029, 2030, it'll go out in Q2, and for those beyond 2030 in Q3. I think we're going to get a sort of a lifting of the mist over the course of next year as to exactly what connections are going to be delivered within the RIIO-T3 period. We know to a large extent where the sort of the primary spines of investment are, what the Connections Reform process will do will allow us to specifically know which substations and which locations are going to be invested. I think we'll get a better view as we move through the course of next year, but it's going to take a little bit of time. Thank you. Okay, I'm going to move on to Ahmed at Jefferies and then Harry at BNP. So Ahmed.

Hi John, thank you for taking my question, and thank you from my side as well, and a warm welcome to Zoe in her new role. John, a few questions. Maybe just starting out with on the T3 process, one of the other things you talked about in your response to the DD was the workability and the simplifying of the funding framework and reopener decision-making. Could you give us a sense of how's the debate been on that front, and if you have been, if you're confident you'll be able to achieve the improvements you're seeking? Another topic that's been, I think, in the press and among stakeholders is the budget for ER7. Auctioned is out, and there's some debate whether that's enough to be able to deliver on the government's offshore wind target. I just want to understand a little bit better.

How sensitive or not is the sort of the transmission CapEx plan to, sort of, achieving offshore wind development targets in the U.K., either T3, OT, or more medium term? And then finally, just one for Andy. Andy, could you just give us a little bit more on the drivers for the upgrade, or modest upgrade, as you sort of call it, for the FY26 outlook? You referenced better performance in regulated businesses. I'd just love to understand that better. Thank you. Yeah, thanks, Ahmed. Starting with the first question on workability, this was one of the areas that we focused on in our response to the draft determination. I mean, in simple terms, as I said to Dominic's answer, quite a bit of the CapEx is going to be agreed as we move through the price control period.

As big projects are defined, then we have to go through a process of agreeing with Ofgem, the pre-engineering, then Ofgem agreeing that it's the right project to move forward, and ultimately agreeing the allowances. For us, what's really important is that those regulatory decisions dovetail and align with the project development timescale so that we're not left in a position where either we're having to spend in advance of getting the approval from Ofgem that it's the right project, and/or we're having to wait for clarity on what the allowances are. It is very much about the workability of the framework and making sure that we've got a good drumbeat with Ofgem to allow us to deliver what is a significant level of CapEx at speed and at pace.

That has been a lot of discussions have been had since the draft determination at the working level to make sure we've got the right framework. Of course, we'll wait to see whether we've got to the right place at the FD at the beginning of December. In terms of AR7 and the offshore wind auction, I think I'll go back to what we said in May, just to remind people that to a large extent, we are relatively insensitive to what happens in the offshore wind auctions because Ofgem had already taken the decision that for the ASTI projects, we have a license obligation to deliver them and that it's in consumers' interest to progress those projects sort of independent of what the timescales are.

That is partly because, of course, there is an expectation that not only will it enable the flow of increased energy across the network, but it will also reduce what is an expected significant increase in constraint costs of around GBP 12 billion. We do not see a huge amount of sensitivity between our GBP 60 billion five-year plan and AR7. Finally, on question three, I will look to Andy. Yeah, thanks, Ahmed. Yeah, in terms of the guidance, I think we said it versus our original guidance at the start of the year, we have obviously seen the two headwinds, firstly from the dollar movement. We are now guiding at 1.35 for the remainder of the year, which is, as you know, a small headwind. Secondly, with a slightly higher scrip uptake, there is an element of EPS dilution from that for the full year.

Now it is more than offset by stronger operating performance from across the group. Actually, I would not call out any particular business unit. It is from across our regulated businesses. All of that means that it puts us in a net or modest upgrade position compared to our original guidance for when we look ahead to the full year. Okay, thank you, Andy. I am going to go to Harry at BNP and then James Deutscher. Harry, could we have your question, please? Thanks, John. I will add my congratulations and all the best. Also, hello to Zoe. Two questions, please. The first one is on the US. You just had a slew of sort of Democrat election wins and the New York mayor race dominated by affordability and the cost of living.

I think you've been quite clear in the past that in the US, you are sheltered from this debate because regulation is done at the state level, etc. If there was a federal move to clamp down on energy prices in the US ahead of the midterms, where do you think the pain would be felt? I have clearly in mind that when this happened in Europe in 2022, it was painful across a wide range of business models, although less so in networks. I'd be interested just to understand how you think or where the axe could potentially fall if energy prices really grew into a major, major political issue in the US. The second one's on T3.

Looking at your consensus around the time that the draft determinations came out, there is a several % uptick in expectations for FY2027, which is, I think, all of us looking at the fast money numbers and the Ofgem models and concluded that that might bump your revenue for next year. How comfortable do you feel with that? If we just take what we have had in the draft determinations, clearly we will get more in December and things might look different. If we are just looking at what we have got in the draft, do you think we are collectively as sell-side analysts being conservative enough here? Do you think that there is a rational reason that the EPS might be higher next year because of the fast money? Thank you. Thanks, Harry. Let me take the first question. I will ask Andy to take the second.

Probably just a sort of a broader answer to the specifics as well, which is. First of all, we're very conscious of the affordability debate, not just in the US and the UK. We always take that massively into account when we think about price controls and rate cases in the UK and the US. With regards to the mayor election, just to put that into context as well. For New York City, they are our largest customer for our downstate gas business. We have a huge amount of interaction with them, particularly on the construction programs, because quite often where the city is doing work, we have to move our pipelines, for example. They're a key stakeholder. Like any key stakeholder, we will engage with them to make sure we understand how we're working together, but also what their aspirations are around.

We understand that affordability is a big issue. Ultimately, for National Grid, things like our CapEx plans and affordability sit at the state level. As you saw last year, we were very successful in agreeing with the regulator at the state level, a three-year plan for NIMO of $5.6 billion, which will take us right through to 2028. In terms of the sort of interaction between state and federal, I mean, for utility rates, obviously federal today do not have any jurisdiction. I think in terms of the affordability debate, it would still sit at the state level. We need to be very mindful of that.

The way we approach that as National Grid is when we look to do a rate case, and we'll do this when we do Kettle and Kenny in the coming months, we first reach out to all our key stakeholders and understand what are their expectations, what do they want from National Grid, and how does that fit in the envelope of affordability. Quite often, that will shape the capital plan that we put forward as part of our rate case. We also spend a significant amount of time thinking about our vulnerable customers. You might remember in our Niagara Mohawk rate case, for example, we set aside $290 million to support most vulnerable customers. Of course, we're always trying to drive the efficiency of their business through innovation as well to find more efficient ways of delivering what we need from customers.

I think for all those reasons, that's what we'll continue to do. We'll engage with stakeholders and think very carefully about what that rate case looks like in the envelope of affordability. From a federal perspective, I mean, I think I'll reflect on what we've seen over the last 12 months, which is one of the key focus areas in New York, for example, has been how do you address the wholesale prices? You would have seen that the PSC has indicated they're supportive of the NESSI pipeline. Based on the analysis that we did on the NESSI pipeline, not only does it improve resilience and reliability in New York, but it increases the volume of supply by about 14% and potentially has about $6 billion of benefit for New Yorkers.

I think there's an interaction between federal government when you get into things like transmission pipelines and the states that I suspect will continue to be a focus going forward. Andy, 23. Yeah. Harry, thanks for the question. Yeah, I think obviously this morning you'll have heard that we've reaffirmed our five-year frame guidance through to 2029. And you remember when we originally set out that guidance, it was deliberately designed to be robust to a range of different outcomes as well. I think it's important to take that into account. Clearly at this stage, as you've heard from John a couple of times now, our focus is working with Ofgem to ensure that we get to an appropriate final determinations. Effectively, that will be the point that we'll determine whether there is further guidance to be given.

That will be the point that we would do that. The other thing I just mentioned, of course, at this stage, we're also one of the topics we talk to Ofgem about is the profiling of any increases of revenue and how they fall across the five years of the price control. That is something else that will be part of the mix that we'll be looking at. Thanks, Harry. I'm going to move on to James Deutscher, and then perhaps we can go to Deepa at Bernstein after that. Yeah, hi, it's James Brown from Deutsche Bank. Thanks for taking my questions. Also congrats to John and also to Zoe and good luck for the future. I had two questions. The first is on demand. You said that you were kind of positioning yourselves to be ready to connect up to 19 gigawatts of additional demand.

Obviously, that would be absolutely huge, particularly if it was all peak demand. What's your kind of realistic expectation for how much demand growth we might see over the next five years? I know there's a lot of data center connection requests, but how much do you think we can realistically expect to be added on the data center side? Maybe that's a difficult question to answer, but any thoughts around that would be super interesting. The second question is on coming back again to the energy affordability debate in the U.K. Obviously, the kind of noise around that has increased quite substantially. How do you view your own positioning in regards to that debate? I guess potentially reasonably well protected given that you'll have the transmission price control locked in pretty shortly, and you can argue that.

The investments they're cutting, your curtailment costs quite substantially. Longer term, is this a bit of a risk for you? If you were to make any recommendations for ways to cut electricity bills in the U.K., given that we have pretty much the most expensive electricity bills in the developed world, what would you recommend? Thank you. Okay, thanks, James. Let me start with the demand question. A little bit of context, because a lot of the demand, a lot of the excitement is coming through the potential connection of data centers. Today, about 2.6% of all the demand that we have in the U.K. comes from data centers. You may have seen that NISO does its future energy scenarios, and it was projecting that could increase to about 9% by 2035.

What we've seen over the last 12 months is quite a surge of requests for connections to the transmission network to support data centers and generative AI. In our RIIO-T3 plans, our assumption is that we're expecting to see about demand growth of around 19 gigawatts, or we're going to build the network out to support that. I think it works out at about 4% growth in demand per annum. About half of that is assumed to be for data center demand. That's backed up by the connection agreements that have been signed in the timeframes for RIIO-T3.

I think we feel comfortable that we've got a reasonably good handle on what the demand is going to do over the next five years or so, and a reasonably good handle on what's being expected in terms of growth in data center demand and where it will connect. Of course, you may have seen National Grid is working with the government through the AI Council to really identify where are the best locations in the U.K. to locate those data centers based on where there's access, their capacity today, or where the timeframes for connections would be shorter than other places, which is an important determinant for data centers. In terms of energy affordability, I think when we stand back from our position, yes, we see an increase in the transmission element of the charge as we deliver out.

All these ASTI projects and the RIIO-T3 CapEx. Actually, against the expected constraint cost, net net, it's a reduction. In a way, us getting on with the investment is very beneficial to consumers because it ultimately reduces the cost for them. Having said that, we're very mindful that affordability is a significant issue, which is why in our business plan we set out why it's important to have incentives around innovation to drive efficiency, and indeed why we propose an efficiency measure as well. We're very mindful of it. We're very conscious that it's a difficult time for customers. In terms of the transmission element of the bill, I'd say we're very focused on making sure we can deliver the infrastructure to relieve those constraint costs, which result in a net net reduction. Thanks so much. Okay, I'm going to move to.

Deeper, and then to Marston at BofA Securities. Deeper, should we take your question? Thank you for taking my question. John, first of all, thank you so much for your service for all these years and all the best for the next steps. Zoe, a warm welcome. My two questions. First one is on the RIIO-T3 draft. Where do you see the risk-reward on the incentives? Not the financial returns, that is very clear. You want it to be higher than what is there. As things stand right now, where do you see the risk-reward? How close is that to the 200 basis points or so you would need in order to get closer to that 10% overall nominal return? In your discussion so far with Ofgem, what is your sense on are we moving in the right direction, taking your feedback into account?

That's my first question. The second one, I noticed that you are looking at US transmission opportunities. I think this is something that used to be talked about a long time back. Nothing's ever happened about it. Has there anything changed in the US transmission landscape that is making you look at that again? Again, how big could this opportunity be? Thank you. Yeah, thanks, Deepa. I guess I put the innovation in the context of the incentives framework, which I think is really important to help me get to an overall return that we think is appropriate given the scale of investment going forward. Actually, the work that we've been doing with Ofgem is focusing on sort of four key incentives. One is being incentivized to make available the connection capacity that customers want in a timely fashion.

Secondly, it's about delivering the major projects as quickly as possible and being incentivized against that in the same way as we are for the ASTI projects. Thirdly, is looking at how we can reduce the cost constraints in our role as the transmission operator working with the system operator. We've done some of that in the existing price control. We think there's an opportunity for more of that as we move forward. Fourthly, it's the incentives as well. We've been having conversations with Ofgem about that to really find a framework that ideally allows us to look for opportunities to extend new technologies onto the network in a way that will reduce costs for customers. If I give you an example, dynamic ratings is a good example that we've started to deploy in our transmission missions in the U.K.

It is new technology. It allows you to get more power down the line without having to build new lines. We think those types of incentives are going to be really important if we are going to get to the overall package that works. We are thinking about those four incentives as a package, and innovation is a key one within that. In terms of the US opportunities, you might recall when we refined the strategy in May last year, we talked about the fact that our focus was going to be on transmission, both regulated and competitive, and that we did see opportunities for transmission opportunities in the US. Our National Grid Ventures business has been looking at that. I referenced in the speech this morning that one particular one on the horizon is a transmission line potentially.

From Maine down to New England, that will help to reduce bills for New England customers that the ISO is doing a solicitation on. We are looking at that as a project. It is obviously in a region that we are very familiar with and understand very clearly. Obviously, we have good capabilities with National Grid Ventures. We are seeing some solicitations for competitive transmission in the US, and as part of our National Grid Ventures business, we are looking at them very carefully. We will only take them forward, as we have said in the past, if we could get to a view that we are sensibly positioned to be able to win them and earn sensible returns. That is one that is specifically on the short-term horizon at the moment. Just looking who is left. Marston, if we could go.

To you next, I think that's the last question that I've got. All right. Yes, thank you so much. Congratulations on the results and all the best for the future. I actually wanted to come back to this topic of potentially new opportunities in transmission in the US that you referenced. Could that be something that is material in terms of investment and in terms of CapEx? Presumably, that would come on top of your existing guidance of GBP 60 billion. Could you just give us some perspective as to how relevant this opportunity could be? Question number two, just on hybrid bonds, we have not really seen any hybrid issuance, I believe. Is that still part of your financing toolbox? Thank you. Marston, I think Andy can cover those. Yeah, thanks. Morning, Marston.

On the transmission opportunities, as John said, we're in the early stages of looking at these. We will have to wait and see how that may or may not grow as we go forwards. I remind you, if you go back to the financing strategy we set out in detail when we did the equity raise 18 months ago, we were very clear that where we do see incremental opportunities, particularly in our ventures business, that might take us above the GBP 60 billion, we would need to look for ways to finance those through the ventures business as well in terms of potential partnering, other types of sort of off-balance sheet finance and other routes, etc. I.e. that it would not impact our delivery or use of the equity proceeds to underpin the GBP 60 billion. That remains absolutely the case today.

In terms of hybrid, you're right. Again, when we made our financing strategy announcements 18 months ago, we were very clear that we wouldn't expect to issue any hybrid for several years. That remains the case. Hybrids remain a very useful potential tool to us. We have a lot of unused hybrid capacity. At this stage, we don't have anything in the near term as you'd expect, but it will remain a tool that we can deploy appropriately later if we think that's the right thing to do. Thank you, Andy. I don't have any further questions. Let me just wrap up by just saying, I guess, summary of our half-year results is good operational and financial performance in the last six months. I think we're very well positioned for the second half. Hopefully, you've taken away from today's presentation, we're very much on track.

To deliver the GBP 60 billion over the five years, 18 months in. As it's my last results presentation, I'd like to say I'm just incredibly proud of the organization and what it's achieved over the last decade. I'm also delighted to be handing over to Zoe, who I think is going to be an incredible CEO. Thank you, everybody. Thank you, everybody, for joining us today. I'll see some of you very soon.