Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage - Earnings Call - Q1 2025

Executive Summary

• Strong Q1 FY2025: Net sales rose 9.4% to $330.2M, gross margin expanded 50 bps to 29.9%, and diluted EPS increased 26.5% to $0.43 on balanced traffic (+5.3%) and ticket (+3.4%) growth.
• Guidance raised: FY2025 daily average comparable store sales growth to 5.0%–7.0% (from 4.0%–6.0%) and diluted EPS to $1.57–$1.65 (from $1.52–$1.60); new store, remodel/relocation, and capex outlooks maintained.
• Operating leverage: Higher sales and occupancy leverage drove operating margin to 4.0% (+40 bps YoY), while admin expense rate ticked up to 3.5% on CFO transition and tech costs.
• Potential stock catalysts: Guidance raise (comps/EPS), continued traffic-led comp momentum (8.9% comps), and private label/Npower penetration gains; watch tariff risk and anticipated gross margin flatness into 2H per management.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

• What Went Well

  • Traffic-led comp acceleration: Daily average comparable store sales +8.9% with transaction count +5.3% and transaction size +3.4%; items per basket increased for the fourth consecutive quarter.
  • Margin execution: Gross margin +50 bps YoY to 29.9% on occupancy leverage and higher product margin; operating income +23.6% to $13.3M.
  • Strategic engagement: Npower penetration reached 81% (vs 78% a year ago) and Natural Grocers brand product penetration rose to 8.9%, supported by 23 new items; “many of our performance metrics are among the highest in grocery retail,” per management.

• What Went Wrong

  • Admin cost pressure: Administrative expenses rose 22.4% and deleveraged 40 bps to 3.5% of sales due to compensation (including CFO transition) and technology costs.
  • Working capital drag on FCF: Operating cash flow of $2.7M was timing-driven (accounts payable) vs $16.6M in the prior-year quarter, per CFO.
  • Outlook conservatism on margin: Management expects gross margin to be relatively flat YoY for the year and flagged tariff uncertainty that could affect product costs.

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good day, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Natural Grocers' first quarter fiscal year 2025 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct the question-and-answer session, and instructions will be given at that time. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. I'd now like to turn the conference over to Ms. Jessica Thiesen, Vice President, Treasurer for Natural Grocers. Ms. Thiesen, you may begin.

Jessica Thiesen (VP and Treasurer)

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us for the Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage first quarter fiscal year 2025 earnings conference call. On the call with me today are Kemper Isely, Co-President, and Rich Hallé, Chief Financial Officer. As a reminder, certain information provided during this conference call contains forward-looking statements based on current expectations and assumptions and are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements due to a variety of factors, including the risks and uncertainties detailed in the company's most recently filed forms 10-Q and 10-K. The company undertakes no obligation to update forward-looking statements. Our remarks today include references to Adjusted EBITDA, which is a non-GAAP measure. Please see our earnings release for a reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA to net income.

Today's earnings release is available on the company's website, and a recording of this call will be available on the website at investors.naturalgrocers.com. Now, I will turn the call over to Kemper.

Kemper Isely (Co-President)

Thank you, Jessica, and good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us for our first quarter call. Today, I will highlight our financial results, including key drivers of our performance, and provide an update on our initiatives. Then, Rich will discuss the first quarter results in greater detail and review our updated fiscal year 2025 guidance. We are very pleased with the strong start to our fiscal year. Our first quarter results saw accelerating growth and continuation of the positive trends we experienced over the past two years, including broad-based growth across product categories and geographic regions. Moreover, comparable store sales growth has remained balanced between transaction counts, transaction size, and item per basket. We believe that many of our performance metrics are among the highest in grocery retail. Our daily average comparable store sales increase accelerated to 8.9% for the first quarter and was 15.1% on a two-year basis.

Additionally, we have had eight consecutive quarters of positive transaction count comps and four consecutive quarters with both an increase in items per basket and modest inflation. Our sales growth in recent years and expectation for continued sales growth are supported by our differentiated offering. Consumers are increasingly prioritizing products that support health and sustainability, creating tailwinds for our business. Our offering of high-quality products at always affordable prices creates a compelling value proposition that customers recognize is distinctive within the marketplace. Robust and balanced sales growth, combined with effective expense management, drove significant operating leverage and generated a 26.5% year-over-year increase in diluted earnings per share. We believe our growth in fiscal 2025 and beyond will benefit from our close alignment with consumer trends, strong customer engagement through our {N}power rewards program, expansion of the Natural Grocers Brand Products, new store development, and driving existing store productivity.

During the first quarter, net sales penetration of our {N}power rewards program was 81%, up from 78% a year ago, reflecting continued positive trends in customer loyalty and engagement. Natural Grocers Brand Products represent premium quality at compelling prices. In the first quarter, our branded products accounted for 8.9% of total sales, up from 8.5% a year ago, helped in part by new products. During the quarter, we launched 23 new Natural Grocers Brand items that all meet our high standards for nutritional health and sustainability, including organic varieties of tomato sauce, pasta, and soup. During the first quarter, we relocated two stores and closed two stores. Subsequent to the quarter, we opened a new store in Brownsville, Texas. Store unit growth and development continues to be a priority for our company.

During fiscal 2025, we plan to open four to six new stores and relocate or remodel two to four stores. Earlier this week, we released our fiscal year 2024 sustainability report. Since my parents founded the company in 1955, Natural Grocers has prioritized offering quality products at affordable prices, nutrition education, and caring for our crew and communities. We believe that grocery stores play a pivotal role in the food chain, a system that is essential to health and well-being. We choose to positively impact the ways that food in this nation is grown, raised, and sold. We aim to offer nutritionally sound, environmentally responsible products and prioritize vendors and farmers who are as passionate about human health, animal welfare, and the health of our planet as we are.

Furthermore, we believe that our company's ongoing financial success demonstrates that a business model dedicated to offering affordable, high-quality, natural and organic products can help deliver positive environmental and social impact while creating value for all of our stakeholders. In closing, I would like to thank our good4u crew for their commitment to operational execution and exceptional customer service. They have been essential to our sustained success. With that, I will turn our call over to Rich to discuss our financial results and guidance.

Rich Hallé (CFO)

Thank you, Kemper, and good afternoon. For the first quarter, net sales increased 9.4% from the prior year period to $330.2 million. Daily average comparable store sales increased 8.9% and increased 15.1% on a two-year basis. Our daily average comparable transaction count increased 5.3%. This marks our eighth consecutive quarter with positive customer traffic comps. Our daily average comparable transaction size increased 3.4%. The transaction size comp included an increase in items per basket of approximately two percentage points. We estimate that the transaction size comp also included modest product cost inflation of approximately one to two percentage points on an annualized basis. Importantly, this was the fourth consecutive quarter with both an increase in items per basket and modest inflation. Sales growth continued to be broad-based across product categories. Our strongest performing departments were dairy, meat, and produce. The dietary supplement sales comp was also positive.

For the first quarter, gross margin increased 50 basis points to 29.9%, driven by store occupancy cost leverage and higher product margin. Store expenses increased 8.1% in the first quarter, primarily driven by higher compensation expenses. Store expenses as a percentage of net sales decreased 20 basis points, reflecting expense leverage. Administrative expenses as a percentage of net sales increased 40 basis points, driven by higher compensation and technology expenses. Compensation expenses included the costs related to our Chief Financial Officer transition. Operating income increased 23.6% to $13.3 million. Net income increased 28.1% to $9.9 million, and diluted earnings per share increased 26.5% to $0.43 in the first quarter. Adjusted EBITDA increased 21.7% to $22.8 million.

Turning to the balance sheet and cash flow, we ended the first quarter in a strong liquidity position, including $6.3 million of cash and cash equivalents and $61.4 million available to borrow on our $72.5 million revolving credit facility. We had $8.9 million in outstanding borrowings on our credit facility. During the first quarter, we invested $9.4 million in net capital expenditures, primarily for new and relocated stores. Based on the strong start to our fiscal year, coupled with confidence in our business trends and execution, we are increasing our fiscal 2025 outlook for daily average comparable store sales growth and diluted earnings per share.

Our revised outlook includes the following: four to six new store openings, two to four store relocations or remodels, daily average comparable store sales growth between 5 and 7%, an increase compared to our prior outlook of between 4% and 6%, diluted earnings per share between $1.57 and $1.65, an increase compared to our prior outlook of $1.52-$1.60, and capital expenditures of $36 million-$44 million to support our growth initiatives. Our outlook reflects the first quarter results and considers both the current operating momentum we are experiencing and consumer trends. Our outlook includes the benefits of our new store growth, targeted marketing focused on our value proposition, differentiation, and customer engagement, and operating initiatives focused on driving higher productivity in our stores.

Our current expectation is that sales comps will be at the high end of our outlook range in the second quarter, while moderating somewhat in the second half of the year as we continue to cycle relatively strong comps in the prior year. We expect modest inflation throughout the year in line with current trends, although we acknowledge the uncertainty of the impact of possible tariffs. Our outlook anticipates that year-over-year gross margin will be relatively flat. Lastly, we expect that year-over-year store expenses as a percentage of sales will be relatively flat to slightly lower. In closing, we are pleased with the strong start to the fiscal year. We attribute our strong performance to the relevance of our differentiated business model, including the value proposition of high-quality products at always affordable prices. Now, I would like to open the line for questions. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star, then one on your touch-tone phone. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw your question, please press star and then two. Our first question comes from Scott Mushkin with R5 Capital. Please go ahead. Scott, your line may be muted.

Scott Mushkin (Founder and CEO)

Hey, guys. Sorry about that. It was muted.

Kemper Isely (Co-President)

No problem.

Scott Mushkin (Founder and CEO)

So, my first question is kind of how we left that you guys left off your prepared remarks. You obviously had a good amount of leverage on rent and gross margin. With the comps being so strong, what are the offsets as the year goes on that you would think gross margin would kind of be relatively flat?

Kemper Isely (Co-President)

Relatively flat. You mean?

Scott Mushkin (Founder and CEO)

Actually, they wouldn't improve. In other words, your gross margin rate wouldn't move higher as you leverage the rent that I think runs through it.

Rich Hallé (CFO)

Hey, Scott, this is Rich. Yeah, we did see an improvement of 50 basis points in the margin. A significant percentage of that was related to store occupancy cost leverage. And then some of that for product margin improvements. Yeah, as we move forward, as we talked in our outlook, we expect that comps in the second half will start to lower as we will be at the lower end of our range as we start to cycle some pretty strong comps in the prior year. So we'll see less benefit from store occupancy leverage. And I think, obviously, a little bit uncertain as to the tariff environment and its potential impact on product costs. And so we're in a little bit of a wait-and-see situation.

Scott Mushkin (Founder and CEO)

Got it. So appropriately conservative, I guess, is how I would kind of think of how you guys are thinking about it. Does that make sense?

Rich Hallé (CFO)

Yeah, I think that's a fair statement.

Scott Mushkin (Founder and CEO)

I mean, I think the next question is my other questions are more longer term, well, actually, before I get to that, I actually did have one kind of shorter-term question on Free Cash Flow. There were some working capital movements there between the years, and I was wondering, is it some timing things going on when we think about Free Cash Flow for the quarter?

Rich Hallé (CFO)

Yeah, it's all timing-driven. It was predominantly accounts payable and the timing of payment for goods and services.

Scott Mushkin (Founder and CEO)

Okay. Okay, that's my last shorter-term one. So kind of on a longer-term basis, if we step back and look at the business, I think you guys were at 4% operating margin in the quarter. Obviously, your nearest competitor, Sprouts, has a much higher margin than you guys. Why can't it continue to climb as you assuming—I always say assuming is not a good idea, but thinking is probably a better word—that comps remain strong, maybe not as strong as they've been? You continue to increase the penetration of own brands or your branded product as you continue to reap the benefits of {N}power. Why shouldn't that just—again, thinking comps can stay above the 3% to stay at a 3%-4% range—should that continue to rise? And is there, in your minds, a limit to where it will go?

Rich Hallé (CFO)

Yeah. So I think that as we continue to see sales leverage, right, sales expansion as we move forward, we should continue to see some expansion in our margins. I mean, that's to be expected. Obviously, depending on unit growth of stores, that also will have some impact in damping down some of that expansion, but I think it's a reasonable assumption. In terms of comparing it to comps, that's a little bit of a different story as we're very focused on product quality and affordable pricing, and affordable pricing is a competitive point for the company, a competitive strength, and we know that we are priced lower than our competition, and so that will continue to have, as we stay true to our values, some impact.

Scott Mushkin (Founder and CEO)

Okay. I love that, by the way. That's such a great answer. So then the final thing, Kemper, I think we talked about this before. The last piece is, I just could be repetitive, but four to six stores, could you do seven to nine? Is that possible? Is that anything that you've thought about a little bit more trying to get that happening?

Kemper Isely (Co-President)

I think, as we've said in our guidance, this year we're focused on four-six. And then next year, we're hoping that we'll be able to, that the pipeline will open up a little bit more and we'll be able to do six-eight stores. And then going forward, that would be kind of the plan to do six-eight stores.

Scott Mushkin (Founder and CEO)

Okay. All right, guys. I don't know if there's anyone on the line. That's usually just me. So I really appreciate it. And I'm just going to say it one more time. I know you're not interested, but we'd love to have a store in Florida.

Kemper Isely (Co-President)

Okay. Thanks, Scott. Florida's a little bit off of our path right at the moment.

Scott Mushkin (Founder and CEO)

I just love the store so much. It's such a unique offering. I love the fact the way you price. If you were a consulting client of ours, I'd say you're doing most things right. And I think it's great. And obviously, the trend is your friend right now. And hopefully, well, I shouldn't say that on a conference call, so I won't say that. But I could say something political a little bit, but I won't do that. But it looks like there's going to be an increased focus on healthy eating. How about if I just say that?

Kemper Isely (Co-President)

I think there will be. I agree with you.

Scott Mushkin (Founder and CEO)

Which is a good thing.

Kemper Isely (Co-President)

It will be to the benefit of this industry, for sure.

Scott Mushkin (Founder and CEO)

Absolutely. Absolutely. Okay, guys. Thanks so much.

Kemper Isely (Co-President)

All right. Thanks. You have a nice afternoon.

Scott Mushkin (Founder and CEO)

Yeah, you too. Bye-bye.

Operator (participant)

This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Kemper Isely for any closing remarks.

Kemper Isely (Co-President)

Thank you for joining us. We believe that Natural Grocers continues to be well aligned with consumer and category tailwinds, helping to fuel our momentum and putting us in a strong position for the remainder of the fiscal year. Thank you and have a great day.