NISOURCE INC. (NI) Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

Q1 2025 adjusted EPS was $0.98, up 15% YoY; GAAP diluted EPS was $1.00. Management reaffirmed FY2025 adjusted EPS guidance of $1.85–$1.89 and 6%–8% annual adjusted EPS growth through 2029 .
Versus Wall Street consensus (S&P Global), Q1 EPS beat ($0.98 vs $0.90*) while revenue slightly missed ($2.183B vs $2.278B*). EBITDA outperformed ($1.015B vs $0.925B*) reflecting regulated revenue recovery from 2024 rate activity and margin strength (company comments) .
Regulatory execution remains a tailwind: NIPSCO’s electric rate case settlement (filed Q1, final order expected Q3) and subsequent IURC approval of new electric rates (June) support >$2B in generation transition and ~$770M in T&D modernization; bill impacts phased over multiple steps, with assistance programs in place .
Strategic catalysts: advancing commercial negotiations to serve hyperscaler data center load in Northern Indiana via a proposed NIPSCO GENCO structure (preferred path for speed/flexibility while protecting existing customers) and reaffirmed 14%–16% FFO/debt target through 2029 (slides/call) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

EPS momentum and guidance: Adjusted EPS $0.98 (+$0.13 YoY) and reaffirmed FY2025 $1.85–$1.89; long-term 6%–8% EPS and 8%–10% rate base growth reiterated .
Operational execution and cost discipline: Project Apollo and AI scheduling delivered >60,000 hours of productivity improvement; O&M expected to remain ~flat at ~$1.4B, supporting affordability and margins .
Regulatory wins: Maryland final order, PA rate case filing, Virginia order expected Q2; NIPSCO electric settlement and later IURC approval to phase in electric rates enabling ~$2B generation transition and ~$770M grid investments; customer outage durations down ~40% .

Management quote: “We are reaffirming 2025 adjusted EPS guidance of $1.85 to $1.89… targeting 14% to 16% FFO to debt…” – CEO Lloyd Yates .

What Went Wrong

Revenue modestly below consensus: Q1 revenue $2.183B versus consensus $2.278B*, offset by EPS beat due to mix and operating leverage [GetEstimates; S&P Global] .
Weather headwind in Q1: Weather adjustment was a negative $16.8M in 2025 versus +$32.9M in 2024, partially dampening operating income; tax effects partially offset .
Data center timing uncertainty: Active settlement discussions and multiple regulatory paths (GENCO, SB 1007) but no commercial agreements announced yet; complexity implies extended timelines and management attention .

Financial Results

Quarterly Actuals (oldest → newest)

Metric	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)	$1.046	$1.540	$2.150
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)	$0.19	$0.47	$1.00
Adjusted EPS ($)	$0.20	$0.49	$0.98
Net Income ($USD Millions)	$85.7	$223.9	$474.8
EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$481.4*	$593.7*	$1,014.5*
EBITDA Margin (%)	44.73%*	37.39%*	46.47%*
EBIT Margin (%)	19.69%*	26.36%*	34.62%*
Net Income Margin (%)	7.96%*	14.10%*	21.75%*
Cash from Operations ($USD Millions)	$340.0*	$539.8*	$686.4
Capital Expenditure ($USD Millions)	$(634.7)*	$(789.0)*	$(637.3)*

Notes: Q3/Q4 2024 revenues/earnings from company press/call materials; margin and cash flow metrics from quarterly data. Asterisks indicate values retrieved from S&P Global.

Q1 2025 vs Wall Street Consensus (S&P Global)

Metric	Actual	Consensus	Surprise
EPS ($)	$0.98	$0.9012*	+$0.0788 (Beat)
Revenue ($USD Billions)	$2.1832*	$2.2774*	-$0.0942B (Miss)
EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$1,014.5*	$924.5*	+$90.0M (Beat)
Estimates Count (EPS/Revenue)	—	10 / 3*	—

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment Performance (Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024)

Segment	GAAP Operating Income Q1 2025 ($M)	GAAP Operating Income Q1 2024 ($M)	Adjusted Operating Income Q1 2025 ($M)	Adjusted Operating Income Q1 2024 ($M)
Columbia Operations	$445.8	$362.0	$437.6	$381.0
NIPSCO Operations	$311.9	$216.4	$303.3	$230.3
Total Reportable Segments	$757.7	$578.4	$740.9	$611.3

KPIs and Operating Drivers (Q1 detail)

Weather vs normal: $(16.8)M impact in Q1 2025 vs +$32.9M in Q1 2024 .
Tax effect on adjustments: $4.3M in Q1 2025 vs $(8.4)M in Q1 2024 .
Diluted shares: 472.5M in Q1 2025 vs 449.4M in Q1 2024 .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Adjusted EPS	FY 2025	$1.85–$1.89 (raised at FY24)	$1.85–$1.89 (reaffirmed)	Maintained
Adjusted EPS Growth	2025–2029	6%–8% annually	6%–8% annually (reaffirmed)	Maintained
Rate Base Growth	2025–2029	8%–10%	8%–10% (reaffirmed)	Maintained
FFO/Debt	2025–2029	14%–16% target	14%–16% (reaffirmed)	Maintained
Base CapEx Plan	2025–2029	$19.3B	$19.4B (updated at FY24; reiterated Q1)	Raised
Dividend	2025	$1.12 annualized (quarterly $0.28)	$0.28 per quarter declared May 12, 2025	Maintained trend (~6% YoY)

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q3 2024)	Previous Mentions (Q4 2024)	Current Period (Q1 2025)	Trend
Data centers & GENCO	Introduced robust interest; IRP scenarios incl. 2.6 GW/8 GW; disciplined development	Declination petition; preferred GENCO path; 2025 event; returns potentially above regulated	Active settlement talks; can announce special contracts pre-declination; GENCO preferred for speed/customer protection	Progressing; still pre-announcement
AI/Operational excellence	Work/asset mgmt; AI scheduling; flat O&M strategy	Apollo savings; AI-driven efficiency; safety improvements	>60k hours productivity gain; >17 centers using AI; reaffirm flat O&M run-rate	Scaling broadly
Regulatory foundation	PA/KY settlements; IN approvals; customer affordability focus	Multiple settlements; financing plan executed; affordability focus	MD order, VA order expected Q2; PA case filed; NIPSCO settlement; later IURC approves new rates (June)	Constructive outcomes
Tariffs/macro	Acknowledged accreditation & MISO changes; affordability	MISO DLOL; tranche 2 transmission beyond plan horizon	85% O&M/capex labor; 97% domestic Tier-1 supply; plan insulated vs tariffs; proactive procurement	Managed exposure
IRP & resource needs	IRP filed Dec; portfolio includes storage & CCGTs; load scenarios	Preferred portfolio suggests ~900 MW capacity by 2028 (pre-datacenter)	Continuing IRP dialogue; resource adequacy intact; MISO auction under review	Visibility improving
Financing/FFO/Debt	Forward ATM $600M; junior sub notes; 14–16% target	Completed ATM & junior subs; 2024 FFO/debt 14.6%	Ahead of schedule; $750M LT debt; half of 2025 equity secured	Execution ahead of plan

Management Commentary

“Our first quarter results are yet another demonstration of our strong business fundamentals… our investments are resilient.” – CEO Lloyd Yates .
“Adjusted EPS was $0.98 per share… primarily driven by regulated revenues recovering capital investments from 2024’s regulatory activity.” – CFO Shawn Anderson .
“GENCO… protects existing customers, provides speed and flexibility, and maintains NIPSCO’s financial integrity.” – CEO Lloyd Yates .
“Approximately 97% of our procurement is through domestic Tier 1 suppliers… secured a significant portion of critical equipment to support our plans.” – CFO Shawn Anderson .

Q&A Highlights

GENCO mechanics and timing: Special contracts can be announced prior to declination outcome; GENCO enables PPAs between GENCO and NIPSCO aligned to special contracts; regulatory cap structure not yet disclosed .
Data center investment optionality: $2.2B upside plan excludes data center capital; any data center capital would be incremental to base/upside plan .
Resource adequacy and IRP: Additional capacity likely needed despite alternatives; accreditation changes require storage and dispatchable resources; MISO auction monitored; company positioned under current IRP .
O&M trajectory: Despite quarterly noise, O&M expected flat YoY around ~$1.4B, supported by Apollo and AI efficiencies .
Labor contract timing and EV exposure: Major labor contracts renegotiating in 2026; EV manufacturing load minimal on electric, more impact on gas infrastructure .

Estimates Context

Q1 2025: EPS beat ($0.98 vs $0.9012*), Revenue miss ($$2.1832B* vs $2.2774B*), EBITDA beat ($1,014.5M* vs $924.5M*). Estimate counts: EPS (10), Revenue (3). Target price consensus $45.8 (unchanged across periods). Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Implications: EPS beat despite slight revenue shortfall suggests regulated revenue recognition and cost discipline more than offset volume/weather; EBITDA outperformance corroborates margin resilience .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Strong Q1 earnings quality: EPS beat and margin strength amid modest revenue shortfall; reaffirmed FY25 guidance and long-term targets underscore visibility and execution .
Regulatory posture supportive: Multiple approvals/settlements and IURC’s phase-in of NIPSCO electric rates de-risk near-term earnings and fund generation transition and grid modernization .
Data center opportunity remains a 2025 event: Active negotiations with GENCO as preferred framework; special contracts can precede declination outcome, offering potential upside beyond the plan .
Cost control as a differentiator: AI/Apollo-driven productivity and flat O&M help preserve affordability and margins, buffering tariff and macro volatility .
Funding plan ahead of schedule: Half of 2025 equity already secured; $750M LT debt issued; FFO/debt target reaffirmed, reducing financing risk for the $19.4B plan .
Watch near-term catalysts: Any announced data center special contract, GENCO declination order (expected around Q3), VA rate case order, and continued tracker recoveries; these can re-rate the equity .
Dividend continuity: Quarterly $0.28 declared for August (annualized $1.12) supports income profile within 60%–70% payout target .