NISOURCE INC. (NI) Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

Q2 2025 delivered solid results and a clean execution quarter: GAAP EPS $0.22 and adjusted EPS $0.22, with full-year 2025 adjusted EPS guidance narrowed to the upper half of $1.85–$1.89, and long-term 6%–8% adjusted EPS CAGR reaffirmed through 2029 .
Results modestly beat S&P Global consensus: EPS $0.22 vs $0.205; revenue $1.25B* vs $1.16B, driven by constructive regulatory outcomes, modest customer growth, and financing execution (issuance of $1.65B senior notes; stable outlooks at all three agencies) . Estimates from S&P Global.
Regulatory catalysts strengthened visibility: final orders in Virginia (revenue increase ~~$40.7M; 9.75% ROE) and Indiana NIPSCO electric rate case approval (~~$257M uplift) support rate base growth of 8%–10% and a diversified $19.4B 2025–2029 base capex plan .
Strategic narrative centers on data center load: management reiterated this is a 2025 event, expects an IURC GENCO declination order in Q3, and continues bilateral counterparty negotiations; framework aims to protect existing customers, deliver speed/flexibility, and potentially earn above regulated returns .
AI-enabled productivity and WAM digital transformation continue to yield efficiencies, underpinning execution momentum and supporting guidance narrowing (e.g., “up to 24 improvement in field productivity,” >83,000 incremental field hours) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Constructive regulation: Virginia final order authorizing ~$40.7M revenue increase and 9.75% ROE; Indiana NIPSCO electric rate case approval adding ~$257M revenue uplift, reinforcing a predictable regulatory environment .
Execution and financing: Issued $1.65B in senior notes, derisking 2025 funding and eliminating near-term refinancing risk; S&P, Moody’s, Fitch maintained stable outlooks .
Operational efficiencies from AI/digital: WAM final phase launched; “work management intelligence” deployed fleetwide, delivering “up to 24 improvement in field productivity,” >83,000 incremental work hours; expanding AI into supply chain and storm response .
- CEO quote: “We remain focused on strong execution of our strategy… the increased 2025 earnings expectations is driven by our dedication and ability to deliver on our financial commitments…” .

What Went Wrong

Limited non-GAAP drivers in quarter: Adjustments minimal (weather -$0.3M) and adjusted EPS equaled GAAP EPS ($0.22), highlighting a seasonally small Q2 contribution and limited levers this quarter .
Coal retirement uncertainty: While plan remains to retire Schaefer by YE 2025 and Michigan City by 2028, evolving state/federal policy could alter timelines, requiring cost recovery solutions and stakeholder alignment .
Data center timing/visibility: GENCO order still pending (expected Q3) and commercial announcements not yet disclosed; investors must wait for concrete contracts and financing structure details .

Financial Results

Headline vs. S&P Global Consensus (Q2 2025)

Metric	Actual	Consensus	Beat/(Miss)
EPS ($)	$0.22	$0.205	+$0.015
Revenue ($B)	$1.25*	$1.16	+$0.09

Estimates from S&P Global. Values with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Quarterly Trends (oldest → newest)

Metric	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Revenue ($B)	$1.54*	$2.15*	$1.25*
Net Income ($M)	$223.9*	$474.8	$102.2
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)	$0.475*	$1.00	$0.22
Adjusted EPS ($)	$0.49	$0.98	$0.22
EBITDA ($M)	$593.7*	$1,014.5*	$549.2*
Net Income Margin (%)	14.10%*	21.75%*	7.97%*
EBITDA Margin (%)	37.39%*	46.47%*	42.81%*

Values with * retrieved from S&P Global.

YoY Snapshot (Q2 2025 vs Q2 2024)

Metric	Q2 2024	Q2 2025	YoY Δ
Revenue ($B)	$1.05*	$1.25*	+~$0.20B
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)	$0.19	$0.22	+$0.03
Adjusted EPS ($)	$0.21	$0.22	+$0.01

Values with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Note on segments: The company refers investors to supplemental materials for detailed segment/financial information for Q2 2025; those schedules were made available on the NiSource investor website but not furnished within the press release text .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Adjusted EPS ($)	FY 2025	$1.85–$1.89 (Q1 reaffirmed)	Narrowed to upper half of $1.85–$1.89	Narrowed (more confident)
Adjusted EPS Growth	2025–2029	6%–8% CAGR (Q4 2024+)	6%–8% CAGR reaffirmed	Maintained
Rate Base Growth	2025–2029	8%–10% (Q4 2024+)	8%–10% reaffirmed	Maintained
Base Capex Plan ($)	2025–2029	$19.3B (Q3 2024)	$19.4B (current)	Raised slightly
FFO-to-Debt	Through 2029	14%–16% (Q4 2024)	14%–16% reaffirmed	Maintained
Dividend	Quarterly	$0.28/share annualized $1.12 (Jan raise referenced)	$0.28/share payable Nov 20, 2025 (record Oct 31)	Maintained distribution cadence

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q4’24 and Q1’25)	Current Period (Q2’25)	Trend
AI/Technology initiatives	2024: AI models, WAM rollout, $77M O&M savings; safety improvements; AMI investments	WAM final phase launched; “up to 24 improvement” in field productivity, >83k hours; expanding AI to supply chain and storm response	Scaling and broadening
Regulatory outcomes	Multiple settlements in PA, KY; Virginia settlement pending; constructive jurisdictions	Final order in VA: ~$40.7M, 9.75% ROE; IN NIPSCO electric rate case approved ~$257M uplift	Positive momentum
Data centers/GENCO	Q4’24: GENCO declination filed; 2025 event; potential above-reg returns	Expect Q3 GENCO order; active counterparty talks; 2025 still “on track”	Progressing, still pending
Generation transition	IRP shows ~900 MW capacity by 2028 pre-DCs; Dunns Bridge II online; coal unit retirements planned	Plan still to retire Schaefer by YE’25, Michigan City by ’28; monitoring new policy impacts	Executing; policy watch
Financing	2024: ATM complete; Jr subs; FFO/Debt 14.6%	Issued $1.65B senior notes; stable outlooks; near-term refi risk removed	De-risked 2025
Customer growth	Plan assumed 0–1.5% growth	TTM growth ~1% electric, 0.6% gas (above forecast)	Ahead of plan

Management Commentary

“We are rapidly advancing our internal AI capabilities… delivering up to 24 improvement in field productivity equivalent to more than 83,000 incremental work hours…” — Lloyd Yates, CEO .
“Our $19.4B five-year capital plan remains diversified and executable… we are not reliant on any single project or technology.” — Shawn Anderson, CFO .
“This is a 2025 event… we are on track to execute this opportunity.” — Lloyd Yates on data center strategy .
“Final order [Virginia] authorized a $40.7 million revenue increase and a 9.75% ROE… [and] NIPSCO electric rate case was approved… providing $257 million in revenue uplift.” — Lloyd Yates .
“We believe [refinancing] effectively eliminates any near-term refinancing risk… backed by a strong and resilient balance sheet.” — Shawn Anderson .

Q&A Highlights

Data centers/GENCO timing and returns: Management reiterated Q3 GENCO order expectation and 2025 timing for commercial execution; emphasized two separate tracks (regulatory and counterparty), and potential returns “above and beyond” regulated in the GENCO construct .
Supply and coal retirement flexibility: Company confident in equipment/Turbine queue positioning; plan still to retire Schaefer in 2025; evaluating policy-driven adjustments in alignment with the state .
Financing flexibility: Multiple levers (operating cash outperformance, capital allocation to reduce lag, potentially junior subs) without needing incremental equity for upside, depending on project specifics .
Gas opportunities with DCs: Rising demand for behind-the-meter/on-site generation on gas system (notably VA/OH), potentially creating capex and growth avenues .
Guidance framework: 6%–8% growth builds off actual results; investors should base out-year math off final 2025 outcome per CFO .

Estimates Context

Q2 2025 EPS beat: $0.22 actual vs $0.205 consensus (S&P Global), driven by customer growth/usage, constructive regulatory outcomes, and proactive financing . Estimates from S&P Global.
Q2 2025 revenue beat: ~$1.25B* vs $1.16B consensus (S&P Global); regulatory approvals and modest load growth supported top-line vs expectations . Estimates from S&P Global. Values with * retrieved from S&P Global.
Forward implications: With guidance narrowed to the high end and long-term CAGR reaffirmed, near-term estimate revisions may drift upward within the range; data center contract cadence and GENCO order are key catalysts for outer-year EPS paths .

Key Takeaways for Investors

High-quality, regulated execution quarter: Guidance narrowed to high end; regulatory decisions in VA/IN bolster confidence in 2025–2029 plan .
Positive estimate momentum: Modest EPS/revenue beat and stable financing backdrop support incremental upward bias within 2025 range . Estimates from S&P Global.
Data center optionality remains the swing factor: Expect Q3 GENCO order; management reiterates 2025 event timing; potential for above-regulated returns and programmatic growth .
AI-driven productivity supports O&M and capex efficiency, underpinning margin resilience and execution against plan .
Balance sheet de-risked: $1.65B notes issuance and stable agency outlooks reduce refinancing risk, preserving strategic flexibility .
Long-term plan intact: $19.4B base capex, 8%–10% rate base growth, 6%–8% EPS CAGR reaffirmed—before any upside from DCs or MISO LRTP T2 transmission adds .
Watch list: Q3 GENCO order, any coal retirement timing updates in light of policy, and potential DC contract announcements that could rebased the earnings glidepath .

Sources and notes:

Q2 2025 press release and 8-K (Item 2.02) including non-GAAP reconciliations and guidance: .
Q2 2025 earnings call transcript (themes, regulatory wins, financing, data center commentary): .
Q1 2025 press release (trend and prior guidance context): .
Q4 2024 earnings call transcript (baseline plan, GENCO structure/returns, IRP, financing): .
Dividend declaration (Aug 12, 2025): .
Where marked with *, values retrieved from S&P Global.
Estimates and consensus metrics are from S&P Global.