NE
Nine Energy Service, Inc. (NINE)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 revenue was $141.4M (+~2% q/q) with adjusted EBITDA of $14.1M (flat q/q) and diluted EPS of $(0.22); results landed at the upper end of prior Q4 guidance ($132–$142M), supported by cementing and completion tools strength despite typical seasonality .
- Segment mix: cementing revenue rose ~7% q/q on jobs +12%, completion tools revenue +~6% q/q; wireline revenue -~1% and coiled tubing revenue -~7% as days worked fell ~16% but day rates increased ~11% .
- Liquidity ended Q4 at $52.1M (cash $27.9M; revolver availability $24.2M; $47.0M revolver borrowings); ATM program sold ~5.4M shares in 2024 for ~$8.2M net proceeds .
- Management guided Q1 2025 revenue to $146–$152M and expects sequential increases in revenue and adjusted EBITDA, citing sustained market-share gains and cost reductions, with a supportive natural gas backdrop (>30% revenue levered to gas basins) .
- Strategic refresh: Board reduced to six and added AI-experienced CFO Julie Peffer (BigBear.ai) and energy CFO/CEO Richard Burnett, a potential catalyst for technology focus and governance; management unchanged .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Cementing market share gains and execution: “We exited 2024 with a Q4 cementing market share within the regions we operate of approximately 19%, an increase of approximately 14% over our Q4 2023 market share,” with quarterly cementing revenue up ~20% from Q2 to Q4 .
- Completion tools innovation and speed: New Pincer hybrid frac plug and frac start element; drill-out times “as low as 2 minutes per plug,” and bullish on dissolvable plugs for longer laterals .
- Safety and sustainability progress: TRIR fell ~22% YoY to 0.49; first Sustainability Report published .
What Went Wrong
- Profitability headwinds in certain lines: Coiled tubing days worked -~16% q/q, utilization 44%, revenue -~7%; wireline revenue per stage -~7% and revenue -~1% q/q .
- Continued net loss and high interest burden: Q4 net loss $(8.8)M with Q4 interest expense ~$12.9M; FY net loss $(41.1)M despite cost-cutting .
- Macro/market constraints: Depressed 2024 natural gas prices (~$2.19 average) pressured activity and pricing in gas-levered basins; management noted rig count declines and spot-market sensitivity .
Financial Results
Quarterly Performance (Q2 → Q4 2024)
Full-Year Comparison
Segment Breakdown (Q4 2024)
Liquidity and Capital
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We began to see the impacts of [market share and cost-cutting] strategy in Q3, which continued into Q4 with sequential revenue increases despite a flat average US rig count and typical Q4 seasonality impacts.”
- “We remain bullish on the dissolvable plug thesis… Technology innovation will continue to be a key focus in 2025 with the introduction of a new, state-of-the-art R&D and completion tools testing facility.”
- “Because of this, we anticipate both revenue and adjusted EBITDA will increase sequentially in Q1… and we project Q1 revenue between $146 million and $152 million.”
- “Our revenue is over 30% levered to natural gas basins… [and] we are cautiously optimistic that some of the natural gas levered operators could bring some activity back online.”
Q&A Highlights
- Dissolvable plug adoption: higher adoption in “hot” gas-heavy basins (Haynesville, Eagle Ford); longer laterals make dissolvables an “insurance policy,” with larger operators’ planned CapEx supportive .
- Tariffs and pass-throughs: Potential cost impacts (steel, cement); service sector plans to pass through to upstream; sector tightness and lean profitability make pass-through likely .
- Q1 segment drivers: Cementing primary driver; tools follow as gas markets lift; coiled tubing utilization rebalancing .
- International tools: Lumpy cadence; expecting YoY growth in 2025 .
- Macro sensitivities: Natural gas activity likely improves in Q2 and beyond (Appalachia first, then Haynesville); Permian activity resilient at ~$65 WTI but would weaken in sustained $50s .
Estimates Context
- S&P Global consensus estimates for Q4 2024 EPS, revenue, and EBITDA were unavailable at time of retrieval due to request limits; therefore, we cannot benchmark results versus Wall Street consensus at this time. We anchor to company guidance and actuals instead [GetEstimates error].
- Company delivered Q4 revenue at the upper end of its $132–$142M guidance range; management guides Q1 2025 revenue to $146–$152M with sequential EBITDA increase expected .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Sequential improvement and mix: Q4 revenue +~2% q/q with adjusted EBITDA ~flat; cementing and tools led while coils and wireline lagged—market share gains and cost actions offset seasonal headwinds .
- Q1 acceleration signal: Revenue guided +~3–7% q/q to $146–$152M; adjusted EBITDA to rise sequentially as share gains and cost reductions sustain—near-term positive setup .
- Natural gas tailwind: With >30% revenue levered to gas basins, a supportive 2025 strip and potential Appalachia/Haynesville activity increases could drive upside in tools and cementing volumes .
- Tariff risk manageable: Input-cost risks (steel, cement) flagged, but management expects sector-wide pass-throughs—monitor timing/magnitude and customer receptivity .
- Balance sheet and cash costs: Liquidity $52.1M and revolver borrowings $47.0M; semiannual interest payments of ~$20M in Q1 and Q3 will pressure cash flows—watch working capital and margin execution .
- Strategic governance upgrade: Board downsized and refreshed with AI and upstream expertise; no changes to management—supports technology and operational focus into 2025 .
- Trend trajectory: Cementing share gains, international tools expansion, and cost discipline are core drivers; if gas activity lifts in Q2+, narrative could shift to margin expansion and volume recovery across gas basins .