Nikola - Q2 2023

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good morning, and welcome to Nikola Corporation's Second Quarter 2023 Earnings and Business Update Call. Currently, all participants are in a listen-only mode. We'll begin today's call with a short video presentation, followed by management's prepared remarks. A brief question and answer session will follow the prepared remarks. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star 0 on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

It is my pleasure to introduce Dhillon Sandhu from Investor Relations.

Dhillon Sandhu (Head of Investor Relations)

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Nikola Corporation's second quarter 2023 earnings and business update call. Joining me today are Michael Lohscheller, Steve Girsky, Stasy Pasterick, and Carey Mendes. A press release detailing our financial and business results was distributed earlier this morning. The release can be found on the investor relations section of our website, along with presentation slides accompanying today's call. Today's discussions include references to non-GAAP measures. These measures are reconciled to the most comparable U.S. GAAP measures and can be found at the end of the Q2 earnings press release we issued today. Today's discussion also includes forward-looking statements about our future expectations and plans.

Actual results may differ materially from those stated, and some factors that could cause actual results to differ are also explained at the end of today's earnings press release and on page two of our earnings call deck, and also in our filings with the SEC. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date on which they are made. You are cautioned not to put undue reliance on forward-looking statements. After the video presentation, Michael and Stasy will give their prepared remarks, followed by analyst Q&A.

We will conclude with questions from our shareholders. Please begin the video presentation. Thank you.

Speaker 10

Talon Logistics Inc. is the asset-based division of Talon Group. We're a trucking logistics company, and we focus on a lot of ocean freight, drayage, intermodal. We want to be trendsetters, and I felt Nikola was the trendsetters for zero emission for commercial vehicles. You know, obviously, you have competitors in the market, but you don't see those type of trucks out there right now. You see Nikola trucks.

The difference between, you know, us partnering with, with Nikola and another company is that they offer an all-inclusive charging infrastructure. It's literally just plug and play, which is perfect.

What I love about this truck is it, it's safe. As a driver, you like to have a lot of visibility within your mirrors, and as you're driving and, you see everything, especially since the cab over. The biggest thing when you're a trucker is, is not, it's not going forward, but backwards. Reversing with this truck, it's, it's fairly easy. You see everything. Once you drive this thing, I'm telling you, you're not gonna wanna go back to driving a diesel.

I think they're pioneers. Obviously, we want to be pioneers, so what a great way to partner up with someone that's already ahead of everyone else.

Michael Lohscheller (CEO)

Thank you, Dhillon, and good morning, everyone. Again, welcome to our second quarter earnings call. Before we get into earnings, I would like to first address the leadership transition plan announced earlier this morning. Stephen Girsky, Chairman of Nikola's Board of Directors, will succeed me as CEO, effective immediately. I have decided to step down due to a family health matter and will be returning to Europe. To ensure a seamless transition, I will remain at Nikola in an advisory capacity through the end of September to support Steve and the team. The board and I are confident in appointing Steve as my successor. Steve was an early believer and investor in Nikola and has been pivotal to the company's success. Over the years, Steve has worked closely with the management team on advancing Nikola's corporate initiatives.

His intimate knowledge of Nikola's business and products will enable him to hit the ground running with the speed required to capitalize on the exciting opportunities in front of us. Steve is a true champion of Nikola's mission. I look forward to seeing the impact he will have in his new role as CEO. Going into our quarterly results, I began last quarter's call sharing with you that Nikola is the real deal. We think that we are the best-positioned company to lead the commercial zero-emission transition and accelerate the hydrogen economy. I also laid out what Nikola's path forward was: focus on North America, deliver the first heavy-duty hydrogen fuel cell truck in the market, provide hydrogen refueling solutions to enable fuel cell truck operations, continue to build sales momentum, and optimize spending to align with our focus.

Today, I share that we are solidly on the path we laid out and delivering on our commitments. You have seen us in the news doing business with companies such as global energy leader Fortescue Future Industries, Bosch, the largest automotive supplier in the world, J.B. Hunt, one of the largest U.S. trucking firms, Voltera for stations and BayoTech for hydrogen supply and fueling solutions. We continue driving forward in our mission to decarbonize heavy-duty commercial transportation. This is only possible with a great team that we have assembled at Nikola, and I am proud of each and every employee who is along with us on this journey. When you are a pioneer, the road is never smooth. Bumps are to be expected, but we believe we have the people, the partners, the technology, and the plan to make Nikola and HYLA a true world-changing company.

Let's get started. Beginning with the truck programs, we started serial production of the hydrogen fuel cell truck on July 31st. The initial trucks take more time to build, as these are the first ones built on the newly upgraded mixed model assembly line. As we build more trucks, they will come off the line faster and throughput will increase. We expect the first customer deliveries to happen in September. Helping drive sales of the hydrogen fuel cell truck are pilot tests with current and potential customers. During Q2, we completed 10 Gamma trucks. Eight of the trucks will be used in pilot testing, and two will be used in final validation testing. Interest in the hydrogen fuel cell electric truck is encouraging. To date, we and our dealers have received 18 customer orders for more than 200 trucks.

On the battery electric truck, during the second quarter, we continued building sales momentum, completing 66 retail sales, double that of Q1, and completing 45 wholesale deliveries. The market for battery electric trucks is growing daily as customers discover the total cost of ownership benefits of the vehicles and additional government incentives and regulations are introduced. The willingness of fleets to participate in the transition to zero-emissions trucks is increasing as the technology is de-risked and the product is proven. The 45 wholesales to dealers last quarter reduced our inventory. We ended Q2 with 139 battery electric trucks in inventory on our site and 92 trucks at dealers. We expect a significant reduction of inventory in Q3 and plan to start producing battery electric trucks again in early 2024 on a build-to-order basis.

Moving on to HYLA, our energy business, we made substantial progress in seeking to ensure that we have the required supply and fueling solutions for customers in late 2023 and 2024. The energy business is working ahead of truck sales to enable zero-emissions trucking operations with our fuel cell truck. We believe what needs to be offered to customers is a fully integrated mobility solution, and we believe Nikola is the only company providing that for customers today. Hydrogen infrastructure takes a long time to permit, build, and requires lead time to procure production and dispensing equipment. We believe we are well ahead of the curve and will continue to work with partners to build out the ecosystem. Our energy team continues to progress with well-established and capitalized partners.

The joint station development partnership with Voltera is progressing well, and we have determined the first eight station locations to be developed under the partnership. The station development plan received another boost with the announcement of grants for over $50 million from various California agencies supporting the construction of eight California stations. These grants will lower the capital cost for hydrogen refueling stations, and are expected to meaningfully reduce dispensing costs. We are very appreciative of the partnership with California state and regulatory agencies who are working alongside us to support the energy transition. On the hydrogen production and supply side, we announced that a definitive agreement was reached with Fortescue Future Industries to acquire 100% of the Phoenix Hydrogen Hub project. The agreement with FFI aligns with our strategy of controlling the hydrogen molecule through the ecosystem with the help of partners.

The project has made good progress. We expect it to reach final investment decisions by the end of Q3 2023 and anticipate phase one to be operational in 2025, with a production capacity of up to 30 metric tons per day, which could support up to 750 Nikola hydrogen fuel cell trucks. We are negotiating a hydrogen offtake agreement with FFI to support our needs. The FFI and Voltera partnerships are significant milestones to support our capital-light hydrogen infrastructure strategy. We continue working closely with partners such as Plug Power, BayoTech, and Linde to underpin our North American supply and infrastructure strategy. As of today, we have received six mobile fuelers and are on track to receive 10 more over the next year. We plan to have nine mobile fuelers at several California locations available for customers by the end of 2023.

We believe we have secured a first mover advantage on hydrogen infrastructure. We'll continue to provide updates as we execute our business plan. Before I turn the call over to Stasy to go over financials, I want to say a few things about safety. Let's talk about the fire of our battery electric truck at our headquarters in late June. First of all, we are thankful that no one was hurt. Secondly, it has been determined that only one truck started the fire and spread to the other four. We have two investigations ongoing, 1 with our technical and safety staff, and one being conducted by a third party. We will share more when we know more. We want everyone to know Nikola's trucks are designed with safety as a first priority and are rigorously tested prior to release.

These tests include front, side, and rear crash testing, battery coolant leakage monitoring, and battery thermal runaway detection. Our trucks meet and exceed Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards and United Nations Global Technical Regulations 20 standards, as well as meet the industry best practices, including the Society of Automobile Engineers, the International Organization for Standardization, and the Underwriters Laboratories. The testing we just described was also conducted on the fuel cell electric truck. Additionally, the hydrogen systems on the truck underwent further rigorous validation testing, including more than 11,000 hydraulic cycles, which simulates more than 15 years of driving and fueling, extreme temperature testing, fire testing, and the tanks undergo gunfire penetration testing to simulate high-rate puncture similar to a vehicle collision. Not only is Nikola the pioneer of the truck itself, but of the safety system standards for heavy-duty hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles.

We have team members on staff who have been a part of establishing the standards for hydrogen and how it's going to be used in the United States. We previously shared what we are going to do to ensure Nikola is around for the long haul. Today, we communicated that we have accomplished some of those things already and believe we are well on our way to execute all of our milestones and lead Nikola to profitability. What Nikola is looking to accomplish is incredibly important. This is the hottest summer ever on record, and innovative companies and partners must work together to transition heavy-duty transportation to zero emissions. Class A trucks make up about 5% of registered vehicles on the road in the United States, yet produce 23% of emissions in the transportation sector.

That is more than 380 million metric tons of CO2 a year. Replacing just one internal combustion engine semi-truck with a Nikola truck can avoid 106 metric tons of CO2 per year. There is a massive opportunity for Nikola, and we expect to play a critical role in the transition to zero emissions. Thank you all once again for being a part of this journey as we strive to accomplish our mission together.

Now, I'd like to pass it off to Stasy. She will share with you how we are reducing our cash burn as we refocus our business. Stasy, the floor is yours.

Stasy Pasterick (CFO)

Thank you, Michael. Good morning, everyone. As we look at our Q2 results, we are really turning the corner on the next phase of our business and improving our financial health. We cut our cash burn substantially, while also improving our balance sheet and increasing our unrestricted cash position by $107 million. We remain focused on our strategic priorities and delivering value to our shareholders by focusing on the North American market, achieving a first-mover advantage in hydrogen economy, and continuing to build sales momentum. This quarter, we executed many actions to reduce our spending and align Nikola's cost structure with our new strategic priorities.

We closed down battery production operations of Romeo, reduced headcount in Phoenix and Coolidge by more than 20%, completed the sale of European JV to Iveco, and went through a company-wide cost rationalization effort to ensure that every dollar spent is in line with the company's priorities. Those decisions, while at times difficult to make, helped Nikola accomplish cash burn below our $150 million target. Our team continues to work diligently, finding opportunities to optimize our cost structure and driving financially disciplined decision-making. As a result, we believe we have high visibility to reduce cash burn below $100 million per quarter by the end of this year, through a combination of lowering ongoing OpEx and CapEx run rates, and managing our working capital usage by continuing to build sales momentum and reducing inventory on the balance sheet.

In Q2, we sold 45 battery electric trucks for gross truck revenue of $14.9 million and net truck revenue of $12 million, after $2.9 million of dealer rebates and incentives. Dealer rebates are related to 2022 wholesale, which were executed at higher ASPs than they're being retailed for in 2023. Most of our 2022 wholesales have been retailed by now, and pricing levels are stabilizing, we expect rebate activity to come down. Excluding dealer rebates, the average sales price for the battery electric truck was approximately $324,000 per unit, unchanged from Q1. Despite the revenue rebate impact in Q2, we continue to see improvements in gross margin coming in at -180% this quarter, from -213% in Q1.

Gross margin improvements are attributable to higher revenue, lower manufacturing labor and overhead as we have optimized resources and operations in Coolidge, and improved inbound freight and inventory costs as we have transitioned to a build-to-order model. We expect to continue seeing gross margin improvements on a battery electric truck as we start utilizing battery packs manufactured in Coolidge and optimize bill of materials costs, specifically on the battery pack enclosure and battery cells. In the longer term, we anticipate the fuel cell truck to be superior on the gross margin due to higher average sales price, as we benefit from the first mover advantage and high incentives in states like California, and labor, freight, and overhead savings once we begin assembling the fuel cell power modules in Coolidge later this year.

On both trucks, we have ample opportunities for bill of material cost reductions as we scale volume and localize our supply chain. This is something our team will be laser-focused on heading into 2024, and it will be critical to achieving gross margin breakeven. Operating expenses in Q2 came in at $141 million, within the provided guidance range. During the quarter, cash burn was $148.2 million, better than our $150 million target. Most of the improvement in Q2 came from slowing down CapEx investment and working capital usage. With a build-to-order production model, stronger sales momentum, and floor plan financing solution, we anticipate further improvements in working capital utilization.

Our goal for the second half of 2023 is for the working capital impact to be neutral, as the proceeds from existing BEV inventory sales offset working capital needed to scale up fuel cell volumes. Despite volatile market conditions, we raised additional capital and improved our cash position to $295.4 million in Q2. This is an increase of approximately $92 million from Q1. The increase in cash came from net proceeds of $96 million from the follow-on offering completed in April, $49 million Coolidge land sale leaseback proceeds, $58 million from the ATM and convertible notes, and $26.5 million net proceeds from the JV divestiture. The cash balance at the end of Q2 does not include $20.7 million we received in July from the first phase of the Phoenix Hydrogen Hub acquisition by FFI.

As of the beginning of July, we maintained total access to capital of approximately $743 million, and believe we have adequate cash on the balance sheet to sustain us into 2024. As we announced yesterday, our stockholders approved Proposal 2 at our annual meeting, increasing the number of authorized shares of our common stock. This will allow us to continue accessing the capital markets strategically and efficiently and maintain liquidity to fund and execute our business plan, subject to market conditions, availability of capital, stock price, and other variables, of course. As we have redefined our business plan and reduced our cash burn, we currently anticipate being EBITDA neutral by the end of 2025 and estimate that we will need approximately $600 million of additional capital to fully fund the business model and achieve profitability. This is substantially lower than what was previously estimated.

Moving on to the guidance. For the third quarter, we expect total truck deliveries to be between 60 and 90 trucks, for the net truck revenue of $18 million-$28 million, generating a gross margin of -165% to -110%. Total operating expenses for the quarter are expected to be in the range of $90 million-$100 million, including $16.5 million of stock-based compensation. This is more than a 30% reduction versus first half of 2023 levels. Q3 CapEx is expected to be $25 million-$30 million. We have a line of sight to further reduce cash burn to roughly $120 million in Q3, with July cash burn already coming in below $40 million.

We are updating the full year 2023 guidance, as we now have better visibility on the commercial side, as well as into the savings from our realigned cost structure. The full year, we expect to deliver 300-400 trucks for total revenue of $100 million-$130 million, generating gross margin of -110% to -85%. We expect to realize a 30% reduction in operating expenses moving forward. Operating expenses for the full year are now expected in the range of $395 million-$415 million, including $85.1 million of stock-based compensation. To wrap up, we had a strong quarter and have improved our financial results, strengthening our balance sheet.

We have substantially reduced cash burn while almost doubling our unrestricted cash position, executed on our cost savings initiatives, regained closing bid price compliance with Nasdaq, developed a clear understanding of the capital requirements to fund the business to positive EBITDA, and continued demonstration of our ability to access capital. I want to sincerely thank the entire Nikola team for executing, being efficient, creative, and demonstrating an ability to do more with less. While we're pleased with the results so far, there is still much to accomplish, and we assure you we are working diligently to achieve our goals and turn Nikola into a profitable business.

I will now pass it back to Michael for closing remarks.

Michael Lohscheller (CEO)

Thank you, Stasy. As you have heard during the call, we are doing the right things at Nikola. We have increased our cash position while also substantially reducing our cash burn. We are building sales momentum and advancing the transition to zero emissions commercial transportation, and we are making progress in the hydrogen refueling business with partners. As we look forward to Q3 and the second half of this year, we expect investors will see the following from the Nikola team. First, building sales momentum. Second, ensuring we have the fueling solutions to support customer fuel cell truck operations. Third, continue to reduce cash burn. Fourth, raise adequate capital to execute on our business plan. Before we close, I just want to say that it has been a privilege and honor to have served as Nikola's CEO.

As I step away to be with my family, my belief in Nikola's purpose to pave the way for a zero-emissions future has never been stronger. Steve is a seasoned automotive executive with a proven track record, and he is exactly what Nikola needs right now, entering this next phase of the company's history.

Steve, over to you, if you would like to say a few words.

Steve Girsky (Chairman and CEO)

Thanks, Michael. I've known Michael and his family for over a decade. We've worked together in many capacities, and I cannot overstate what Michael has contributed to this company. I look forward to staying in touch with you, and I speak on behalf of the entire Nikola team in wishing you and your family well. I want to thank Michael for his hard work and dedication to advancing Nikola's mission to pioneer solutions for a zero-emissions world, and would also like to thank the board for placing their trust in me as we work toward continuing the company's momentum. I feel energized and ready to take on this role, and I'm excited about the many opportunities ahead of us.

That concludes our remarks. Operator, please open the line for analyst questions.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press Star two if you would like to remove your question from the queue, and for our participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. Our first question is from Mike Shlisky with D.A. Davidson. Please proceed.

Mike Shlisky (Senior Research Analyst)

Yes. Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Michael, also, I do wish you and your family well as well. I maybe just want to talk about that transition as my first question. Steve, sometimes when folks come into the CEO role, when they were chairperson, it's sometimes only a temporary thing. Are you looking to kind of stay at Nikola for the long term? Can you maybe tell us and, again, was this a very sudden thing? Did they just call you last night, Steve, or was there a large, external board search done here?

Steve Girsky (Chairman and CEO)

Thanks, Mike. I'm in it to win it here. I'm closing on a place in tomorrow. We're gonna be spending time, a lot of time in Phoenix. I plan to be on the road a lot, though, visiting customers and partners. I'm here for the long haul, as long as it takes to win. A well-functioning board had succession plans for all scenarios, and we had a succession plan for this one, and I was it, and I was happy to step up and move into this role. Does that help?

Mike Shlisky (Senior Research Analyst)

Sure. No, I certainly appreciate that. I want to turn to what's coming here in the second half off the production line. Just confirm, it looks like it's going to be entirely fuel cell vehicles, if I'm reading everything correctly here. Will all those vehicles have the bundled lease program attached to them? I know you have at least one fuel station queued up for this for this year, but what's the plan to make sure that all those trucks coming off the line in the back half of the year here have the hydrogen that they need?

Michael Lohscheller (CEO)

Yeah. Thanks, Mike. This is Michael here. Let me take this. First of all, in terms of the production, as we said, we have started the production of the fuel cell truck. Obviously, a very important milestone this week for the company. We have the flexibility to produce both trucks on one assembly line, which is also a very interesting thing in terms of efficiency. You are correct, for this year, we plan to produce fuel cell truck. However, obviously then, with the build-to-order concept, we will also produce BEV electric trucks going forward. Now, the next couple of months till the end of the year is all about the fuel cell truck. As we said, we, we think we will produce more than 100 trucks, which I think is, is a very good first step in terms of the launch of the product. In terms of the go-to-market strategy, I mean, obviously various elements play a key factor.

Just to finish that, first of all, the hydrogen availability is very important in terms of the mobile fueler, but several customers obviously want a bundled lease as well, and case by case, we will offer this as well. There, there's not one go-to-market approach for everybody. It depends by customers, but yes, that plays a role, too.

Mike Shlisky (Senior Research Analyst)

I guess just, just to clarify your answer, that'll explain maybe why there might be a lower ASP and better than the third quarter guidance of $300,000 a little over, versus like $340,000 for the last quarter. It's simply a different ASP for the FCV, that's all it is?

Michael Lohscheller (CEO)

First of all, the ASP in terms of--

Mike Shlisky (Senior Research Analyst)

Oh, yeah.

Michael Lohscheller (CEO)

In terms of the ASP, it's, it's very similar, obviously we have now done some inventory liquidation, and that had also an impact on the ASP. In general, please think about that the ASP for the fuel cell truck is higher, because the price is higher, the incentives are higher, so there is a significant difference between BEV and the fuel cell truck. In addition to that, obviously, where we have competition on the battery electric truck, on the fuel cell truck, we have clearly a first-mover advantage and are uniquely positioned.

Stasy Pasterick (CFO)

Right.

Michael Lohscheller (CEO)

I hope that clarifies it.

Stasy Pasterick (CFO)

This is Stasy, if I may just jump in. As far as how we think about the ASP guidance going forward, right? For the BEV, which Michael alluded to, as we're selling through the existing inventory, ASP will normalize and be about $300,000-$320,000 range. For the fuel cell, we're kind of seeing ourselves settling in $400,000-$425,000 range.

Mike Shlisky (Senior Research Analyst)

Okay. That makes sense. I appreciate it, guys. I'll pass it along. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Our next question is from Jeff Klusman with Vertical Research Partners. Please proceed.

Jeff Klusman (Analyst)

Thank you very much. First of all, Michael, thoughts are with your family and best of luck on your endeavors. Steve, I'm very much looking forward to working with you going forward, so congratulations, and I'm sure we'll talk a whole lot more. I want to go back to Stasy's comment about seeking to be EBITDA neutral by the end of 2025. I was just thinking, this is going to be more of a fuel cell mix, and there's also going to be a fair amount of HYLA fuel that is moving around the country at that point in time. Can you give us an idea of, of that breakeven that you're looking at? What kind of fuel cell truck population are we looking at around breakeven?

Not annual sales, but kind of how many fuel cell trucks and, and how much fuel do we need to be moving around the country to be thinking about an operating breakeven, given, you know, the cost reductions and, and kind of what we're looking at over the next two years?

Stasy Pasterick (CFO)

Yeah, great question. Really, last time we talked about, you know, what we need is to be able to produce and sell about 1,000 trucks. Most of those trucks I would expect to be on the fuel cell side. Obviously, the mix will be determined by the customer, but given kind of the momentum that we're seeing and the early order activity we're seeing, most of the truck volume will come from the fuel cell. With that, I think for If you think about the fuel revenue, that will take a little bit of time to ramp up, right? If you think about each fuel cell truck you sell, you're going to be bringing in, you know, somewhere between $60,000-$80,000 of revenue for the hydrogen a year for each truck in operation.

It's going to take time to ramp up that revenue. Then, if we look into 2025, really the target there is bringing in about 20% margin on the fuel cell trucks and about 15%-20% margin on the hydrogen.

Jeff Klusman (Analyst)

Okay. I think Michael may have asked this, but you know, initially, the thought with the fuel cell model was these are all going to be leases with maintenance and fuel bundled in. How is our thinking on fuel cell moving forward? Is it going to be kind of a hybrid model with some being sales and, and no tie-in to the fueling, or are we still thinking kind of this long-term lease model, where we've got maintenance and, and fuel packaged in?

Michael Lohscheller (CEO)

I mean, Jeff, I would definitely say, I mean, first of all, whenever we now sell fuel cell truck, and the good news is we have many orders in already, considering the stage of the production we are, that we just launched. Obviously, the first key question from customers is, hydrogen, right? I think the combination there, truck, hydrogen, this is where obviously Nikola is uniquely positioned. Maintenance is a key factor, too. Therefore, I think bundled lease will play a role, but the key discussion with customers is like, okay, TCO of the truck, and then obviously, what about the hydrogen included? This is where the most of the debates are, and again, Nikola is very well positioned there, and that's why the whole energy play is so important, including mobile fueler stations, et cetera.

Jeff Klusman (Analyst)

Okay. Thank you very much. That's all I have.

Operator (participant)

As a reminder, just star one on your telephone keypad if you would like to ask a question. Our next question is from Bill Peterson with J.P. Morgan. Please proceed.

Bill Peterson (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Yeah, hi. Thanks for taking the question. Following up on the EBITDA, you know, walk in 2025 to neutral. I believe last quarter you mentioned you needed to deliver around 1,000-1,500 next year, then double in 2025. My first question is, is that number or those, those figures still, still hold? My second question is, is how should we think about the mix in 2024? Is this, is this gonna be vast majority fuel cell at this stage, or how, how should we think about the mix into next year?

Stasy Pasterick (CFO)

Hi, Bill. Yeah, I'll take that. For, for the most part, that thinking that we've shared last time on the breakeven is still in place. With some of the reductions that we've talked to, and we've been able to make as far as just being more efficient and bringing the overhead down and some of the labor costs down, it's probably a little bit lower than 1,000, but not that far off from that. Then in 2025, we would need somewhere between 1,500-2,000 trucks to get to EBITDA positive enough to cover the CapEx, so we start really generating the cash flow, right? The positive cash flow.

As far as the mix, again, as I said, I mean, we'll let the customer decide, but right now, what we anticipate is, for the most part, the volume will be on the fuel cell side. Then for the BEV, we'll just build to order as the economics make sense of those orders.

Bill Peterson (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Yeah, thanks for that. And, and nice, nice job on reducing costs and cash burn. You're now targeting below $100 million per quarter exiting this year. I guess, can you, can you give us a feel along- following on the prior question, too, on- under current cash burn expectations beyond this year? You know, and I guess your plan to maintain sufficient liquidity through commercialization. I think you mentioned you now need $600 million, which is below prior expectations. I guess, how urgent does the capital raise feel, feel to you? I mean, should we assume this is imminent, or, I mean, how is your thinking on this?

I mean, can this be a step function or at least multiple raises or just any, any color you can provide on how you think about raising capital from here would be helpful?

Stasy Pasterick (CFO)

Yeah, thank you. I mean, obviously, this is a lot of work, a lot of very difficult decisions, on everybody's behalf. Again, I think we've been able to show very good progress, right, going from $240 million to $150 million. That's where we are right now in Q2, and a lot of that is coming from working capital improvements, right? Build, build to order, collecting on our sales, reducing our inventory. And now, as we head into Q3 and Q4, how we get to that $100 million is we will start actually realizing the impact of all of those actions that we have carried out, right, in Q2. Getting out of Cypress, getting out of Europe, reducing our head count. All of those will start bringing some benefits on the OpEx run rate.

CapEx will go down significantly, right, as we're pretty much done with Coolidge, which at this point is with the fuel cell assembly line in Q3. That's really how we get to that $100 million. Second part of your question, obviously, we feel good about where we are, right? We've increased our cash position, we have lower cash burn, with those two variables, we have a little bit less urgency as far as, you know, if you compare it to where we were in Q1 as far as the capital raise. Yes, we have the availability, you know, to go out there and raise capital.

We have the shares now, but we can afford being a little bit more selective on that, and, you know, really looking at options that are aligned with our long-term capital needs, and the timing on that, right, would have to be something that we will look at and we'll balance. As far as the $600 million, it's really just a function of our forecast of cash burn going forward, and we through the time when we get to profitability, which will be in 2025. Most of that capital will be needed in the second half of this year, slash first half of next year, as we scale the fuel cell truck. Again, we feel pretty good at where we are.

We'll make sure we're being efficient on the capital raise, and strategic, and also disciplined with our spending.

Bill Peterson (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Thanks, Stasy, and best wishes, Michael, and good luck to you, looking ahead.

Michael Lohscheller (CEO)

Thanks, Bill.

Operator (participant)

Our next question is from Winnie Dong with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed.

Winnie Dong (Analyst)

Hi, thanks ahead. Just have one quick question. What is complicated in the lower delivery expectations for the year? I think you mentioned 100 units for the fuel cell side, and retail delivery seems to be, there was an uptake on a quarter-over-quarter basis for the BEV side. I guess what's driving that? Then also, can you also go into the drivers of the gross margin change expected for the year? Thanks.

Stasy Pasterick (CFO)

Yes, I can take that. I think the question was just the reasons for reducing guidance or some of the background on reducing guidance, full year guidance, going from where we were to 300-400. We don't really talk about the mix. We don't break out the BEV versus fuel cell anymore, again, because we're building to order. We will have to see how that shakes out with the customer demand. For the most part, again, for this year, we have 140 BATs on hand that are available to sell, and then once those are sold through, we will resume production next year. On the fuel cell, as Michael has alluded to, we plan to build about 120 fuel cell trucks.

Really, the guidance for the rest of the year is just based on what we're able to build, based on the lead times, based on the build to order strategy, that will take a little bit longer, and based on some of the lead times with our suppliers. On the gross margin, really, the, the gross margin, if you look at the overall improvement of the gross margin from where we were to where we had it, a lot of that will be driven off of the volume. Our overhead is fixed, right? As long as we are manufacturing to the levels that we've talked about through the next few years, we don't need to scale the overhead significantly. Really, the margin will be just a function of the revenue.

In the guidance, as you see, we lower delivery guidance, obviously, you'll see the margin coming down.

Winnie Dong (Analyst)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Our next question is from Tyler DiMatteo with BTIG. Please proceed.

Tyler DiMatteo (VP, Digital Media and Live Entertainment Analyst)

Yeah, thank you, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for the time. I, so I wanted to phrase it a different way o-on the cash bridge. Can you provide a little more color on the working capital portion? I realize you said inventory is going to step down, I mean, really, how are you thinking about that beyond this year into next? The second part of the question: Is there anything else that can be done on deoptimizing the reselling comments that you alluded to in terms of the manufacturing and labor? You know, as we think about, you know, the manufacturing of the fuel cell coming off the line, what other efficiencies could we squeeze out on that, that could really benefit the cash position?

Stasy Pasterick (CFO)

Yeah. I'll start, and maybe then Michael can chime in on the production side. Thank you for the question. As far as just where we are as we get to our cash burn targets, on the spend and the CapEx side, we feel very good. Substantially, all the reductions have been actioned in Q2. You know, our spend is something, as you know, that we can control and offset as needed. Of course, we'll look for incremental reduction opportunities in the OpEx and CapEx side. We may find them, but right now, what was planned on the 30% reduction, second half versus the first half. That's what we've actioned already.

The working capital, as you alluded to, is, you know, probably one of the biggest areas where we could have variance to plan, just because this is something not. What will be key is really our ability to sell trucks to dealers, to retail those trucks and collect payments in a timely manner, right? If we're not able to do that, then we'll have cash tied up in inventory and AR, and that is similar to what had happened in the BEV launch until we switched to the build-to-order. Some of the things that we're doing, obviously for the fuel cell launch, we are approaching it in a little bit more of a pragmatic way. We're ordering material based on indication of customer demand. Right, we're not over-ordering, we're not over-investing in inventory.

Then on the BEV, as we've switched to build-to-order for the rest of this year, the proceeds from selling the BEV, right, will be a working capital benefit for those 140 trucks, as we already have them there. That's really where we get a lot of favorability for the rest of this year from working capital from those BEV units. Of course, we're still working on floor plan financing, right? Making sure that we have floor plan financing in place with our dealers, so we're able to increase that and we're able to accelerate our collections.

Michael Lohscheller (CEO)

Yeah, just to add, in terms of obviously the overall cost of the fuel cell truck and the efficiency and Coolidge is limited at the beginning in the face of the launch, right? We do the first trucks, we do the 100+ trucks this year. Then going into next year, you will see significant volume reduction, but also significant efficiency improvements on the direct labor side. This is normal. We have done now the second launch, but also from experience with other companies, also in terms of automotive experience, you should see efficiency gains on the labor side in the amount of 30%-35% in the first stable year, which is then obviously 2024.

Tyler DiMatteo (VP, Digital Media and Live Entertainment Analyst)

Okay, perfect. Thank you for the time, guys. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. I will now hand the call back over to Dhillon for shareholder questions.

Dhillon Sandhu (Head of Investor Relations)

Thank you, operator. There were a few recurring themes in the questions, which we have consolidated. The first question is: what is the future for Nikola, and how will you create value for shareholders?

Michael Lohscheller (CEO)

We believe the future looks bright for Nikola. We are making the difficult but right decisions to reduce cash burn and achieve profitability quicker. In the second quarter, we made progress toward that goal. We have a first-mover advantage on the hydrogen fuel cell truck, and will begin delivering production vehicles to customers next month. We are also advancing the energy ecosystem with partners and improving the sales strategy for the battery electric trucks. When you look at Nikola, you see we have a management team making conscious decisions to eliminate unnecessary spends, be wise with capital, and drive forward the transition to zero emissions with our first-to-market-world-class products. We believe if we continue to execute and build on this momentum, we will be able to deliver on our promises, generating value for shareholders, and simultaneously decarbonize heavy-duty trucking.

Dhillon Sandhu (Head of Investor Relations)

Thank you, Michael. The second question is: how do you see government incentives and regulation affecting Nikola moving forward?

Stasy Pasterick (CFO)

Great question. Government incentives and new regulations are very positive for Nikola. As we discussed on the call, station grants will reduce our hydrogen dispensing costs and help reduce the CapEx investment for station development. This is an addition to existing hydrogen production and dispensing credits, such as clean hydrogen production credits, offering up to $3 per kilogram and up to $2 per kilogram LCFS credits in California. On the truck side, vouchers in states like California and New York make purchasing a zero-emission truck easier for fleets, as it lowers the acquisition cost, making the total cost of ownership more competitive to a diesel truck. A great example is the California HVIP program, which can offer up to $288,000 towards the purchase of a fuel cell electric truck. We also believe we will see increased demand as new regulations come into play.

For example, in California, only zero-emission drayage trucks can register in the CARB Online System beginning next year. There are significant incentives for fleets to transition to zero emissions.

Dhillon Sandhu (Head of Investor Relations)

Thank you, Stasy. The third question is: When will Nikola achieve profitability?

Stasy Pasterick (CFO)

Last quarter, we discussed we have a path to achieve positive EBITDA in 2025. Q2 was a step in the right direction towards achieving that goal, and we expect to continue finding ways to optimize our costs. While reducing operating and capital expenditures is critical, to get to profitability, we need to generate meaningful gross margins from the sale of our products. The three most impactful variables to that are volume, average selling price, and the bill of material cost for the truck. We've already spoken to the continued build of sales momentum, and we expect that to increase as the hydrogen fuel cell truck becomes available. We still expect to have to sell at least 1,000 trucks to get to gross margin breakeven and close to double that to reach positive EBITDA.

We estimate the average selling price will be approximately $400,000 per truck, driven by the combination of first mover advantage and incentives offerings, especially in states like New York and California. Now that the fuel cell truck is in production, one of our most important priorities going into 2024 will be reducing the bill of material costs for both trucks. As we scale the volume, we will have better visibility into piece price reductions based on our supply chain. Ultimately, we need to see our bill of materials reduced to approximately $275,000 per truck. Between that and the localization of key components, we expect that we can achieve our desired profitability targets by the end of 2025.

Steve Girsky (Chairman and CEO)

Let me just. Oh, go ahead, sorry.

Operator (participant)

I'm sorry. I was just gonna close out the Q&A and hand it back to Steve for closing remarks.

Steve Girsky (Chairman and CEO)

Great. I'm getting, I'm getting used to this. Let me just close with this. I want to thank everybody for participating. I want to thank you for your support. I just want to say I've been involved with this company for a little over three years, since the IPO in 2020. I've seen a lot, but I've also tell you that nobody thought they could engineer a truck, and we are. Nobody thought we could build a truck, and we are. Nobody thought we could sell a truck, and we are. Nobody thinks we can decarbonize this industry, and we will. I am excited to be here. I'm excited to be part of this team. Michael, we will stay in touch, I'm sure. Thank you all for listening in.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. This will conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and thank you for your participation.