Nikola Corp (NKLA)·Q2 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Q2 2024 delivered Nikola’s strongest topline to date: revenue of $31.3M, up 318% sequentially, driven by higher FCEV volumes and ASPs; wholesales of 72 FCEVs exceeded guidance high-end and rose 80% vs Q1 .
• Gross loss narrowed modestly to $54.7M (vs $57.6M in Q1) despite higher volume; non-GAAP net loss/share improved year over year to $(2.67) from $(5.90) in Q2 2023 .
• FY 2024 delivery guidance maintained at 300–350 FCEVs; Q3 guidance set at 80–100 units; HYLA infrastructure target unchanged at 14 fueling solutions by year-end, with additional stations commissioned in Toronto and Santa Fe Springs and Ontario capacity doubled .
• Strategic catalysts: monetization of regulatory credits (first NOx/PM sale recognized), national-account wins (e.g., Walmart Canada), and growing hydrogen network density—factors that management argues accelerate the “profitability flywheel” .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

• What Went Well
  • Delivery execution and demand signals: 72 FCEVs wholesaled, exceeding guidance by ~20% and up 80% q/q; ASP improved to ~$388K (third consecutive quarterly increase) .
  • Infrastructure ramp: HYLA stations added/commissioned (Toronto; Santa Fe Springs) and Ontario modular capacity doubled, supporting density and customer uptime (record day: 28 FCEVs refueled; >850 kg dispensed) .
  • Policy tailwinds and alternative revenue: 99% share of CA HVIP fuel-cell vouchers and initial NOx/PM credit sale recognized, with expectations for growth across model years .
• What Went Wrong
  • Profitability still deeply negative: gross margin at (175)%, adjusted EBITDA $(109.4)M; management reiterates scale is prerequisite to BOM/cost optimization .
  • Cash burn and runway concerns: unrestricted cash fell to $256.3M; CFO acknowledged need to secure additional capital to operate “unencumbered” in 2025 .
  • BEV recall overhang and battery supply constraints: remediation on track for year-end 2024, but selling BEV inventory pushed to 2025 given supply constraints .

Financial Results

Note: Q1 2024 EPS was reported prior to the 1-for-30 reverse split; Q2 2024 presentation adjusts shares to reflect the split, affecting comparability .

Segment revenue breakdown:

KPIs and operating metrics:

Guidance Changes

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• “In the last three quarters of serial production, we have demonstrated that Nikola is the offtake. We are the catalyst to disrupt Class 8 trucking to make zero-emission a reality.” — Steve Girsky, CEO .
• “Total revenue was $31.3 million, up 318% from Q1… The average sales price improved sequentially by $7,000 per unit to $388,000.” — Tom Okray, CFO .
• “We opened a HYLA branded station in Toronto… completed commissioning a modular station in Santa Fe Springs… added another modular fueler at our Ontario station, doubling capacity.” — Steve Girsky .
• “Together… CARB credits can be $45,000 to $50,000 a unit… it’s 100% gross profit.” — Tom Okray .

Q&A Highlights

• BOM/cost-down roadmap: Highly concentrated supplier base (top 5 = 65% of BOM); pursuing volume-based price breaks, localization, redesigns; expect larger step-down in next-gen vehicle .
• Cash runway: CFO aims to secure capital to operate through next year without frequent market access; acknowledges current burn would deplete cash near year-end absent financing .
• Regulatory credits economics: Management framed combined CARB credits at $45–$50K/unit with line-of-sight to growth as ZEV sales ramps; credits are high-margin .
• Competitive/use-case vs BEV and policy risk: Hydrogen seen resilient across political scenarios; FCEV uptime and refuel speed positioned as advantages in drayage and cold-weather/high-altitude routes .
• Order cadence: Customers cycling CA vouchers; demos expand beyond CA; national-account pilots expected to seed larger orders over time .

Estimates Context

• Wall Street consensus from S&P Global was unavailable via our tool for NKLA due to missing mapping; we could not retrieve Q2 2024 revenue or EPS estimates for beat/miss assessment. Values from S&P Global not available at this time.
• Without S&P Global consensus, we anchor on company-reported guidance and actuals: Q2 revenue $31.3M and GAAP EPS $(2.86); delivery volumes beat guidance .

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Volume execution and ASP tailwinds are intact; Q3 guidance (80–100) points to continued ramp, with infrastructure deployment front-running truck placement to improve customer uptake .
• Profitability improvement depends on scale: BOM reductions, localization, and warranty normalization require sustained quarterly volumes and credible order book; watch national-account conversions .
• Alternative revenue (CARB credits) is a material lever with near-100% margin; as FCEV deliveries rise, credits can meaningfully augment gross profit .
• Liquidity remains the key risk; unrestricted cash at $256M with ongoing burn suggests the need for additional capital or strategic partnerships near term .
• BEV recall on track; BEV revenue contribution likely deferred to 2025 due to battery constraints—reduces near-term mix complexity but prolongs BEV monetization timeline .
• Narrative catalyst: expanding hydrogen highway density (Ontario–Long Beach–Santa Fe Springs triangle; Toronto launch), national logos (Walmart Canada), and record refueling metrics bolster first-mover credibility .
• Tactical trading: Monitor Q3 deliveries vs guidance, HYLA station commissioning pace, regulatory-credit monetization disclosures, and any financing events; these are likely stock movers in upcoming quarters .