Nikola Corp (NKLA)·Q3 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Record wholesale of 88 hydrogen FCEV trucks; net revenue of $25.18M was reduced by ~$8M due to repurchase of 20 BEVs, while gross revenue was ~$33M; gross loss widened to $61.9M and Adjusted EBITDA was -$123.6M .
• ASP for FCEVs was $361K, down ~7% q/q as volume scaled; management reiterated FY2024 FCEV wholesale guidance of 300–350 and highlighted growing national accounts and dealer expansion to 19 locations .
• HYLA infrastructure focus shifted to supporting existing stations; management now expects to deliver 10 HYLA fueling solutions by year-end (vs prior plan for 14 by YE), with >5,900 fueling events and >210 metric tons dispensed to date .
• Liquidity remains the key watch item: unrestricted cash ended Q3 at $198M, with runway into—but not beyond—Q1 2025; management is pursuing strategic capital and self-help measures (voucher processing, working capital) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

• What Went Well

  • Record FCEV wholesale deliveries (88), +22% q/q; continued strong organic growth from existing fleets; ASP held ~$361K as scale builds .
  • Dealer network expanded (GTS Group in Southern California), increasing Nikola sales and service locations to 19; reiteration of FY FCEV wholesale guidance 300–350 .
  • HYLA network ramp: >5,900 fueling events and >210 metric tons dispensed to date; mobile refueling growth nearly +350% YTD; “only OEM to offer 2 zero-emission powertrains on 1 Class 8 platform” .
  • Quote: “We continue to dominate the heavy-duty fuel cell electric vehicle market in North America with over 90% share based on the most recent Polk registration data.” — Steve Girsky .

• What Went Wrong

  • Net revenue reduced by ~$8M from repurchase of 20 BEVs; gross loss widened to $61.9M and gross margin deteriorated to -246% .
  • ASP contracted 7% q/q to $361K as scale priorities trumped pricing; management balancing volume vs ASP while working BOM lower over time .
  • HYLA fueling solutions guidance lowered to 10 by YE (from 14 previously), and capital runway limited to into—but not beyond—Q1 2025, implying financing overhang .

Financial Results

*Q1 EPS was reported prior to the 1-for-30 reverse split effective June 24, 2024, whereas Q2 and Q3 figures reflect split-adjusted shares .

Segment revenue breakdown

Operational KPIs

Q3 supplemental KPIs

Cross-references and clarifications

• CFO noted gross revenue of ~$33M vs net revenue $25.18M due to ~$8M BEV repurchase; the repurchases also pressured gross loss q/q .

Guidance Changes

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• Strategic positioning: “Currently, we're the only OEM to offer 2 zero-emission powertrains on 1 commercial Class 8 platform in North America.” — Steve Girsky .
• Market leadership: “We continue to dominate the heavy-duty fuel cell electric vehicle market in North America with over 90% share based on the most recent Polk registration data.” — Steve Girsky .
• Commercial traction: “ASP for the fuel cell vehicles in the quarter was $361,000, down 7% from Q2... we think it’s important to get some scale for our operations.” — Tom Okray .
• Liquidity outlook: “We estimate that our existing cash is sufficient to fund our forecasted operating costs and meet our obligations into, but not beyond Q1 2025.” — Tom Okray .
• Infrastructure strategy: “We expect to deliver 10 HYLA fueling solutions by year-end... focusing our strategy on providing more support at existing stations.” — Steve Girsky .

Q&A Highlights

• BEV strategy shift: Management sees growing demand pull; plan to sell remediated BEVs from Nikola inventory at margin-positive contribution; 78 trucks returned; 81 pending recall; ~150 in internal inventory .
• Pricing and ASP: ASP held around ~$370K over recent quarters; Q3 ASP $361K with volume/scale prioritized over near-term pricing; aim to raise ASP longer term as BOM falls .
• Capital runway and financing plan: Runway into Q1 2025 at ~$30–$40M/month burn; pursuing strategics, CARB voucher processing speed-ups, dealer floorplan, and organizational efficiencies to extend runway .
• Production mix flexibility: 3–6 month lead for BEV production ramp; ~230 BEVs of optionality (inventory + recall); ability to flex mix to supplement FCEV markets where fuel availability lags .
• Deliveries funnel and incentives: Large funnel for Q4 with incentives potentially pulling deals into 2024; confidence supports 300–350 FY guidance, but timing with new tech/customers creates range uncertainty .

Estimates Context

• S&P Global consensus estimates for NKLA were unavailable in our system for Q3 2024; as a result, we cannot formally assess beat/miss versus Wall Street consensus for revenue or EPS this quarter. We anchor comparisons to company-reported results and management commentary .

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Record FCEV wholesales and dealer expansion signal strengthening commercial traction; however, net revenue was reduced by BEV repurchases, pressuring gross margin and EBITDA — watch Q4 revenue quality as BEV dynamics reverse .
• Liquidity is the near-term overhang: runway into—but not beyond—Q1 2025; expect pursuit of strategic capital or broader financing solutions; monitor CARB voucher processing, working capital, and ATM/convertibles usage .
• Guidance mix changed: FCEV 300–350 maintained, but HYLA fueling solutions lowered to 10 by YE; the infrastructure focus on existing stations may improve utilization but slows geographic expansion pace .
• ASP compression (~7% q/q) reflects scale prioritization; the long-term margin story depends on BOM reductions and supplier optimization — watch Q4 ASP, BOM, and “flywheel” execution .
• BEV optionality adds a second lever: remediated BEVs with margin-positive contribution can supplement markets where fuel lags; flexibility across two powertrains is a differentiator .
• Q4 catalysts: closing national account deals (funnel + incentives), Northern/Central CA permitting to strengthen the I‑5 corridor, and continued fleet validations in Canada; these support deliveries and station utilization .
• Medium-term thesis: If capital is secured, Nikola’s dual-powertrain platform and early hydrogen ecosystem could compound share gains; near-term risk is financing and execution on infrastructure and cost-downs .