Nikola Corp (NKLA)·Q4 2023 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Began delivering production hydrogen FCEV trucks; 42 produced and 35 delivered to dealers in Q4 with no finished goods inventory, marking the first production Class 8 hydrogen FCEV available in North America .
• Q4 revenue was $11.53M; gross margin was -332% and net loss from continuing operations was -$153.6M; unrestricted cash ended at $464.7M, boosted by $230.3M raised in Q4 (highest unrestricted cash since Q4 2021) .
• Management guided FY 2024 deliveries to 300–350 FCEV units and at least 100 BEV units, truck revenue of $150–$170M, hydrogen/other revenue $10–$12M, OpEx $280–$300M, and CapEx $60–$70M; Q1 2024 deliveries 30–35 FCEV, revenue $12–$14M, gross margin -245% to -205% .
• Catalysts: first-mover advantage (99% share of CA FCEV HVIP vouchers), opening of HYLA modular refueling station (Ontario, CA) and Oakland fueling partnership, plus strong demand vs supply constraints; focus markets CA and Canada .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Delivered first production hydrogen FCEV trucks and sold every truck available; “We believe we have delivered the first production Class 8 hydrogen fuel cell truck available in North America” .
• Dominant voucher position: 355 of 360 (99%) CA HVIP hydrogen FCEV vouchers requested through Jan 2024 were for Nikola, underscoring demand tailwinds and execution .
• Hydrogen ecosystem milestones: opened HYLA modular refueling station (Ontario) and partnered with FirstElement Fuel (Oakland) enabling daily fueling and North–South CA operations .

What Went Wrong

• Profitability and margin: Q4 gross margin -332% and adjusted EBITDA -$102.0M; cost of revenues materially exceeded sales given early-stage scale and recall remediation drag .
• BEV recall cash timing and costs: $68M warranty accrual with most cash impact in Q1–Q2, and net cash impact for BEV remediation expected at ~$38M as trucks are retrofitted and sold .
• Supply chain constraints limited near-term FCEV ramp; Q4 FCEV guidance met on deliveries but margin came in below prior guided range; management flagged pacing issues in new components and fueling assets .

Financial Results

Notes: Q3 2023 revenue negative (dealer buybacks, rebates, and recall impacts), thus gross margin is not meaningful (NM) .

Guidance Changes

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• “We began delivering production hydrogen fuel cell electric trucks in Q4… fleets are fueling daily… we continue to rack up HVIP vouchers, and we are on track to start getting our battery-electric trucks back to end users by the end of the first quarter.” — CEO Steve Girsky .
• “There are more requests for our fuel cell truck alone than all other truck OEMs combined… We are making the most of our head start and capitalizing on our first-mover advantage.” — CEO Steve Girsky .
• “We are guiding for full year hydrogen fuel cell electric truck deliveries in the range of 300 to 350 trucks… We expect total truck revenue for the full year to be between $150 million and $170 million.” — Management .
• “With current demand greater than supply, we can be selective on customer orders and believe we can push price higher.” — Management .

Q&A Highlights

• Dealer inventory and demand: all orders tied to end-users; dealer stock likely later as demand currently absorbs output .
• Supply constraints: component and fueling assets beginning to resolve, truck-side faster than fueling-side .
• Market focus: “fish where the fish are” — near-term focus on CA ports and Canada given incentives and regulatory tailwinds; density-building strategy .
• BEV remediation financials: $68M accrual; ~$3M cash incurred to date; majority cash out in Q1–Q2; positive cash contribution expected on inventory sell-through .
• Capital needs: higher unrestricted cash vs burn; asset monetization optional; no immediate need to raise capital .
• Infrastructure expansion: line of sight to mid-single digit modular sites in SoCal and several in NorCal; collaboration with station operators to utilize underutilized assets .

Estimates Context

• Wall Street consensus via S&P Global was unavailable for NKLA due to missing mapping in the SPGI CIQ company map; as a result, we could not provide a definitive comparison vs consensus estimates for Q4 2023 and the prior two quarters (attempted retrieval failed).
• In lieu of consensus comparisons, we benchmarked results against company-provided quarterly guidance from the Q3 call and newly issued FY 2024/Q1 2024 guidance from the Q4 call .

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Execution milestone: first North American production Class 8 hydrogen FCEV deliveries with zero finished goods inventory; strong early fleet feedback and real-world duty cycles, validating product-market fit .
• Demand > supply near-term: dominant share of CA HVIP FCEV vouchers (99%) and robust sales pipeline support selective pricing and ASP improvement as supply chain normalizes .
• 2024 framework: 300–350 FCEV and ≥100 BEV deliveries; truck revenue $150–$170M; watch gross margin trajectory from -100% to -80% amid BOM reductions and ASP improvements .
• Hydrogen ecosystem turning operational: Ontario modular station live, Oakland partnership in place, and targeted expansion across CA; sufficient hydrogen offtake for the 2024 truck plan .
• BEV recall resolution in sight: trucks back in end-user fleets by late Q2; inventory sell-through late Q3/Q4 with expected positive cash contribution; most recall cash impact in H1 2024 .
• Liquidity improved: Q4 raise of $230.3M and $464.7M unrestricted cash at year-end; management expects second-half burn materially lower and optionality via asset monetization .
• Watch margin inflection: early units carry high BOM and legacy pricing; focus on BOM reductions, volume scaling, and ASP to reach positive cash contribution per unit later in 2024 and EBITDA-positive ambitions in 2025 .

Additional Detail: Prior Two Quarters’ Earnings (for Trend Analysis)

Other Relevant Press Releases (Q4 2023)

• Capital raises: December press communications/8-Ks indicated concurrent offerings of common stock and green convertible notes; proceeds earmarked for working capital and eligible green projects under Green Bond Principles .

All claims and figures are sourced from Nikola’s Q4 2023 8-K and earnings press release, Q4 2023 earnings call transcript, and prior quarter 8-K press releases and earnings calls, with citations provided inline.