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Newsmax Inc. (NMAX)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 revenue was $45.3M, up 4.0% year over year and above Wall Street consensus of $43.98M; Primary EPS was -$0.03 versus consensus -$0.07, a better-than-expected loss . Revenue consensus and EPS estimates from S&P Global: $43.98M*, -$0.07*.
  • Broadcasting revenue grew 10.1% YoY to $36.6M, driven by affiliate fee increases (+22.3% YoY to $8.1M) and higher linear ad rates; advertising revenue declined 1.6% YoY to $27.6M due to non-election year comparisons .
  • Adjusted EBITDA was -$1.8M versus +$2.7M in Q3 2024, reflecting higher production/programming and public company costs; net loss improved to -$4.1M from -$9.8M YoY, aided by reduced legal expenses .
  • FY 2025 revenue guidance of $180M–$190M was reiterated; management cited “strong performance” early in Q4 and confidence in the full-year outlook, with the balance sheet at ~$130.4M cash and short-term investments .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Affiliate fee momentum and distribution expansion: affiliate revenues +22.3% YoY to $8.1M, with favorable renewal trends; new distribution deals across hospitality (900+ hotels), Taxi TV (15,000 screens), and global streaming via Truth+ .
  • Ratings and multi-platform engagement: Newsmax remained #4 cable news with improved ratings and higher ad rates; Newsmax 2 daytime viewership up 33% YoY; Newsmax+ subscribers increased YoY .
  • Management conviction and balance sheet strength: CFO highlighted ~$130.4M cash & short-term investments and reiterated FY revenue guidance, citing early-Q4 strength .
    • CEO: “Our performance this quarter reflects the strength of our diversified revenue model… and continued engagement of audiences across all of our platforms.”

What Went Wrong

  • Profitability pressure: Adjusted EBITDA turned negative (-$1.8M) vs. +$2.7M prior-year; gross profit fell to $16.0M from $19.8M as production/programming and public company costs rose .
  • Advertising softness vs. an election-year comp: ad revenue declined 1.6% YoY to $27.6M due to non-election-year dynamics; analysts probed the impact of political ad cadence and broader ad mix shifts toward CTV/OTT .
  • Elevated G&A and investment: higher personnel costs, professional fees, and ongoing content investments weighed on operating results, consistent with strategy but compressing near-term margins .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD)$43,513,952 $45,301,707 $46,439,744 $45,272,696
Net Loss ($USD)$(9,770,287) $(17,232,525) $(75,175,622) $(4,115,406)
Diluted EPS ($USD)$(0.29) $(0.49) $(0.59) $(0.03)
Gross Profit ($USD)$19,762,663 $21,667,079 $17,641,761 $15,960,736
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD)$2,670,311 $(1,168,302)$(3,816,075) $(1,768,587)
Cash & Equivalents ($USD)—$126,718,693 $33,842,039 $14,181,578
Short-Term Investments ($USD)—$89,801,763 $164,052,830 $116,175,071

Consensus vs. Actual (Q3 2025):

MetricConsensusActual
Revenue ($USD)$43,981,000*$45,272,696
Primary EPS ($USD)$(0.07)*$(0.03)

Values with asterisk (*) retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment and Revenue Category Breakdown

Category ($USD)Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Advertising Revenues$28.9M $29.9M $27.6M
Affiliate Revenues$7.4M $7.3M $8.1M
Subscription Revenues$7.0M $7.0M $6.9M
Product Sales Revenues$1.6M $1.6M $1.5M
Total Broadcasting Revenues—$38.0M $36.6M

Key KPIs

KPIQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Quarterly Viewers33M+ 26M+ 28M+
Social Media Followers20M 20M 22M
Newsmax App Downloads—16M 19M+
Newsmax+ Paid Subscribers——280K+

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue ($USD)FY 2025$180M–$190M $180M–$190M Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Affiliate Fee RepricingBegan late 2023; favorable renewals; affiliate revenue +7.3% YoY in Q2 +22.3% YoY affiliate revenue; positive renewal outlook; one major deal up in coming months Improving
Advertising Market MixHigher linear rates tied to ratings; ad +26.2% YoY in Q2 Ad -1.6% YoY on non-election comp; advertisers shifting to CTV/OTT; Newsmax 2 investment to monetize growth Mixed
Streaming & FASTExpansion of Newsmax+, Newsmax2; distribution across Comcast devices in Q2 Newsmax 2 daytime +33% YoY; Newsmax+ subscriber growth ~8% YoY Improving
International ExpansionFubo en Español, Cellcom Israel, Telecom Armenia, Supercanal DR in Q2 Expanded coverage (Israel), global distribution via Truth+; brand licensing in Balkans Improving
Legal/SettlementsDominion settlement booked in Q2; large one-time costs Reduced legal expenses aiding net loss improvement Easing
Content InvestmentProgramming expansion and talent additions planned in Q1 Continued investments; lagged ROI acknowledged; benefits across linear, streaming, affiliate renewals Ongoing
Social Monetization20M followers in Q1; strong engagement 22M followers; monetization challenging but valuable in negotiations Stable/Supportive

Management Commentary

  • CEO: “Our performance this quarter reflects the strength of our diversified revenue model, the growing reach of our cable and FAST channels and the continued engagement of audiences across all of our platforms.”
  • CFO: “We are encouraged by the strong performance we are seeing early in the fourth quarter and remain confident in our previously disclosed full-year revenue guidance… Supported by a solid balance sheet.”
  • CEO on competitive positioning: “It’s not blue ocean territory, but it’s pretty close… we have proven… the marketplace is strong and robust and can have another major player.”
  • CFO on affiliate fee trajectory: “Trending very favorably… 22% increase quarter over quarter… we expect that to continue.”

Q&A Highlights

  • Advertising dynamics: Non-election-year ad softness vs. 2024 comps; mix shifting toward CTV/OTT; Newsmax investing to capture OTT growth; no impact from government shutdown noted .
  • Content ROI: Investments carry lag effects; strategy spans documentaries, scripted, and talent; benefits accrue across linear, streaming, and affiliate negotiations .
  • Affiliate renewals: One major MVPD renewal upcoming; negotiations broadly favorable; distributors value 24/7 live news for subscriber retention .
  • Competitive edge and social reach: Strong digital backbone supports TV and monetization narratives; 22M social followers are a lever in distribution negotiations .
  • Management alignment and outlook: CEO rebutted rumors of share sales; emphasized alignment and pursuit of strong 2026 results .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025 revenue beat consensus ($45.27M vs. $43.98M*), and EPS beat (-$0.03 vs. -$0.07*). The magnitude of the beat was driven by affiliate fee growth, higher linear ad rates tied to ratings, and Newsmax+ subscriber gains despite a non-election-year ad environment .
  • Q2 2025 revenue also exceeded consensus ($46.44M vs. $44.9M*), though headline profitability was dominated by the Dominion settlement booked in the quarter .
  • EBITDA estimates reflect GAAP EBITDA and may not be directly comparable to the company’s reported Adjusted EBITDA; investors should focus on the reconciliation and drivers of non-GAAP adjustments (legal, other corporate matters) .

Values with asterisk (*) retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Revenue and EPS beat in Q3 with reiterated full-year guidance point to resilience in a non-election year; watch for continued affiliate fee repricing as a margin catalyst .
  • Profitability remains the swing factor: adjusted EBITDA turned negative on higher content/public company costs; legal expense normalization should help sequentially .
  • Distribution momentum is tangible (hospitality, Taxi TV, Truth+, Fubo en Español), supporting reach and future affiliate fee resets toward peers .
  • Ratings strength is translating into higher linear ad rates; ad softness vs. a presidential-cycle comp is more cyclical than structural, with OTT monetization upside via Newsmax 2 .
  • Balance sheet provides strategic flexibility (~$130.4M cash & short-term investments), enabling continued investment in content and tech while negotiating affiliate renewals from a position of strength .
  • Near-term trading implications: positive sentiment from beats and guidance maintenance; monitor updates on MVPD renewals and Q4 pacing. Medium-term thesis: affiliate fee normalization, streaming growth, and international expansion can drive operating leverage once investment intensity moderates .