NMI - Earnings Call - Q2 2025

Executive Summary

• Q2 2025 delivered record total revenue of $173.8M and adjusted diluted EPS of $1.22, with NIW of $12.5B and primary IIF reaching a record $214.7B. Versus estimates, the company modestly beat both EPS (+$0.03) and revenue (+$0.8M).*
• Operating efficiency improved with a record-low expense ratio of 19.8%, though the loss ratio rose to 9.0% (from 3.0% in Q1) as claims normalized and current-year default activity was partially offset by prior-year releases.
• Management reiterated disciplined capital return, indicating an ongoing buyback cadence around ~$25M per quarter and $281M of remaining authorization, alongside strong PMIERs excess capital ($1.3B).
• Embedded positives: robust credit quality, strong persistency (84.1%), rising core yield (34.2 bps), and fully-placed quota share and XOL reinsurance for 2025–2026 with partial 2027, positioning the firm to navigate macro differences across geographies.
• Likely stock catalysts: sustained top-line strength, record operating leverage, buyback consistency, and confirmation of reinsurance coverage; offset by higher loss ratio and regional housing normalization commentary.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Record total revenue ($173.8M), with net investment income rising to $24.9M and net premiums earned holding steady; expense ratio reached a record low 19.8%, highlighting operating leverage. “Our expense ratio was a record low, 19.8%...highlighting the significant operating leverage embedded in our business” — CFO Aurora Swithenbank.
• Strong production and portfolio growth: NIW $12.5B, IIF $214.7B (+2% QoQ, +5% YoY), persistency 84.1% supporting embedded value gains. “We generated $12.5 billion of NIW volume and ended the period with a record $214.7 billion…We had a terrific quarter” — CEO Adam Pollitzer.
• Capital strength and returns: PMIERs excess available assets ~$1.3B; repurchased $23.2M of stock in Q2 with $281M authorization remaining. “We’ve been fairly consistent… buying back roughly $25 million a quarter” — CEO Adam Pollitzer.

What Went Wrong

• Loss ratio increased to 9.0% (vs. 3.0% in Q1 and 0.2% in Q2’24) as claims expense rose to $13.4M; claims paid severity reached 82% in Q2.
• GAAP diluted EPS declined QoQ to $1.21 (from $1.28 in Q1) and adjusted diluted EPS to $1.22 (from $1.28 in Q1) amid higher claims despite top-line strength.
• Regional pressures persist (parts of FL/TX/Sun Belt/Mountain West) and macro normalization in home price appreciation, necessitating continued disciplined pricing and risk selection.

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Today, and welcome to the NMI Holdings, Inc second quarter 2025 earnings conference call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your touch-tone phone. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to John Swenson of management. Please go ahead.

John Swenson (VP of Investor Relations and Treasury)

Thank you. Good afternoon and welcome to the 2025 second quarter conference call for National MI I'm John Swenson, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasury. Joining us on the call today are Brad Shuster, Executive Chairman, Adam Pollitzer, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Aurora Swithenbank, our Chief Financial Officer. Financial results for the quarter were released after the close today. The press release may be accessed on NMI's website, located at nationalmi.com, under the Investors tab. During the course of this call, we may make comments about our expectations for the future. Actual results could differ materially from those contained in these forward-looking statements. Additional information about the factors that could cause actual results or trends to differ materially from those discussed on the call can be found on our website or through our regulatory filings with the SEC.

If and to the extent the company makes forward-looking statements, we do not undertake any obligation to update those statements in the future in light of subsequent developments. Further, no one should rely on the fact that the guidance of such statements is current at any time other than the time of this call. Also note that on this call, we may refer to certain non-GAAP measures. In today's press release and on our website, we provided a reconciliation of these measures to the most comparable measures under GAAP. Now I'll turn the call over to Brad.

Brad Shuster (Executive Chairman)

Thank you, John, and good afternoon, everyone. I'm pleased to report that in the second quarter, National MI again delivered standout operating performance, continued growth in our insured portfolio, and strong financial results. Our lenders and their borrowers continued to turn to us for critical down payment support, and in the second quarter, we generated $12.5 billion of NIW volume, ending the period with a record $214.7 billion of high-quality, high-performing primary insurance in force. In Washington, our conversations remain active and constructive, and there continues to be broad recognition in D.C. about the value that the private mortgage insurance industry provides, offering borrowers efficient down payment support and access to mortgage credit, while also placing private capital in front of the taxpayer to absorb risk and loss in a downturn.

Before turning it to Adam and getting into the details of the quarter, I also want to share how proud I am that in June, National MI was again recognized as a Great Place to work and earned an added decade of great distinction for garnering our honor for the 10th consecutive year. Great Place to Work is a global authority on workplace culture, employee experience, and leadership, and partners with Fortune Magazine to produce the annual Fortune 100 Best Companies to Work For list. We firmly believe that the quality of our team and the culture that we have established are key competitive advantages, and it is gratifying to again be recognized for these strengths. With that, let me turn it over to Adam.

Adam Pollitzer (President and CEO)

Thank you, Brad, and good afternoon, everyone. National MI continued to outperform in the second quarter, delivering significant new business production, consistent growth in our insured portfolio, and strong financial results. We generated $12.5 billion of new insurance written volume and ended the period with a record $214.7 billion of high-quality, high-performing primary insurance in force. Total revenue in the second quarter was a record $173.8 million, and we delivered adjusted net income of $96.5 million, or $1.22 per diluted share, and a 16.3% adjusted return on equity. Overall, we had a terrific quarter and are confident as we look ahead. The macro environment has remained resilient in the face of elevated interest rates and increased headline volatility.

Our lender customers and their borrowers continue to rely on us in size for critical down payment support, and we see an attractive and sustained new business opportunity fueled by long-term secular trends. We have an exceptionally high-quality insured portfolio covered by a comprehensive set of risk transfer solutions, and our credit performance continues to stand ahead. Our persistency remains well above historical trend, and when paired with our strong NIW production, has helped to drive consistent growth and embedded value gains in our insured book. We continue to manage our expenses and capital position with discipline and efficiency, building a robust balance sheet that's supported by the significant earnings power of our platform. Notwithstanding these strong positives, however, macro risks do remain, and we've maintained a proactive stance with respect to our pricing, risk selection, and reinsurance decisioning.

It's an approach that has served us well and continues to be the prudent and appropriate course. More broadly, we remain encouraged by the continued discipline that we see across the private mortgage insurance market, and we applaud the permanent renewal of the mortgage insurance premium tax deduction in the One Big Beautiful Bill, which is expected to deliver meaningful tax relief to deserving middle-class homeowners. Overall, we had a terrific quarter, delivering strong operating performance, continued growth in our insured portfolio, and strong financial results. We're in the market every day with a clear mandate and purpose, offering a low-cost, high-value solution that makes homeownership more affordable and achievable for millions of Americans in communities across the country, with coverage that works to insulate the GSEs and taxpayers from risk and loss in a downturn.

Looking ahead, we're well positioned to continue to serve our customers and their borrowers, invest in our employees and their success, drive growth in our high-quality insured portfolio, and deliver through the cycle growth, returns, and value for our shareholders. With that, I'll turn it over to Aurora.

Aurora Swithenbank (CFO)

Thank you, Adam. We again delivered standout financial results in the second quarter. Total revenue was a record $173.8 million. Adjusted net income was $96.5 million, or $1.22 per diluted share, and adjusted return on equity was 16.3%. We generated $12.5 billion of NIW, and our primary insurance in force grew to $214.7 billion, up 2% from the end of the first quarter and 5% compared to the second quarter of 2024. 12-month persistency was 84.1% in the second quarter compared to 84.3% in the first quarter. Net premiums earned in the second quarter were $149.1 million compared to $149.4 million in the first quarter and $141.2 million in the second quarter of 2024. Net yield for the quarter was 28 basis points.

Core yield, which excludes the cost of our reinsurance coverage and the contribution from cancellation earnings, was 34.2 basis points, up from 34.1 basis points in the first quarter. Investment income was $24.9 million in the second quarter compared to $23.7 million in the first quarter and $20.7 million in the second quarter of 2024. Total revenue was a record $173.8 million in the second quarter compared to $173.2 million in the first quarter and $162.1 million in the second quarter of 2024. Underwriting and operating expenses were $29.5 million in the second quarter compared to $30.2 million in the first quarter. Our expense ratio was a record low, 19.8% in the quarter, highlighting the significant operating leverage embedded in our business and the success we have achieved in efficiently managing our cost base. We have a uniquely high-quality insured portfolio, and our credit performance continues to stand ahead.

We had 6,709 defaults at June 30th compared to 6,859 at March 31st, and our default rate declined to 1% at quarter end. Claims expense in the second quarter was $13.4 million. GAAP net income for the quarter was $96.2 million, and diluted earnings per share was $1.21. Adjusted net income was $96.5 million, and adjusted diluted EPS was $1.22. Total cash and investments were $3 billion at quarter end, including $169 million of cash and investments with the holding company. Shareholders' equity at June 30th was $2.4 billion, and book value per share was $31.14. Book value per share, excluding the impact of net unrealized gains and losses in the investment portfolio, was $32.08, up 4% compared to the first quarter and 16% compared to the second quarter of last year.

In the second quarter, we repurchased $23.2 million of common stock, retiring 628,000 shares at an average price of $36.90. Through quarter end, we repurchased a total of $294 million of common stock, retiring 10.6 million shares at an average price of $27.61. We have $281 million of repurchase capacity remaining under our existing program. At quarter end, we reported $3.2 billion of total available assets under PMIERs and $1.9 billion of risk-based required assets. Excess available assets were $1.3 billion. Overall, we achieved standout financial results during the quarter, delivering consistent growth in our high-quality insured portfolio, record top-line performance and expense efficiency, and strong bottom-line profitability and return. With that, let me turn it back to Adam.

Adam Pollitzer (President and CEO)

Thank you, Aurora. We had a terrific quarter, once again delivering significant new business production, consistent growth in our high-quality insured portfolio, and standout financial results. We have a strong customer franchise, a talented team driving us forward every day, an exceptionally high-quality book covered by a comprehensive set of risk transfer solutions, and a robust balance sheet supported by the significant earnings power of our platform. Taken together, we are well positioned to continue to serve our customers and their borrowers, invest in our employees and their success, drive growth in our high-quality insured portfolio, and deliver through the cycle growth, returns, and value for our shareholders. Before closing, I also want to echo Brad's comments about our Great Place To Work and Decade of Great Recognition.

National MI leads the mortgage insurance market with discipline and distinction, and we are fortunate to have such a talented and dedicated team working hard every day to deliver innovative solutions for our customers and their borrowers. We have a reputation standing at success as a company because of our team, and I'm delighted to take a moment to celebrate their efforts. Thank you for joining us today. I'll now ask the operator to come back on so we can take your questions.

Operator (participant)

We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your touch-tone phone. If you are using a speaker phone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw your question, please press star then two. The first question comes from Doug Harter from UBS. Please go ahead.

Doug Harter (Equity Research Analyst)

Thanks. I'm hoping you could talk a little bit about the pacing of capital return, and given the sort of resiliency of the economy and the persistence of high rates, whether that would change the pacing of capital return.

Adam Pollitzer (President and CEO)

Yeah, Doug, it's a good question. I'd say, broadly speaking, we're pleased with the execution that we've achieved on our program thus far, including the $23 million that we retired in Q2. As we look ahead, while we don't have a set schedule for our anticipated activity, we've been fairly consistent thus far, buying back roughly $25 million a quarter, and that's really a good assumption for where we'll be. I think we've got it as an open market program, so you could see some natural fluctuations up or down depending on the risk environment, how our operating performance is trending, and also where our valuation trends, because it's somewhat sensitive to value. We certainly have ample capacity to be more opportunistic if the opportunity should arise, and by the same token, I'd say that discipline to slow things if circumstances dictate.

Right now, it'd be a good assumption of sort of that rough $25 million per quarter that we've been operating against.

Doug Harter (Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you, Adam.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Rick Shane from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Rick Shane (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Hey, everybody. Thank you for taking my questions. Look, you know we're starting to, over the last couple of months here, hear more about rising supply of homes for sale, longer days on market, some indications of home price depreciation in certain markets. If you can talk about how you're thinking about this tactically in terms of underwriting, but also in terms of risk transfer. When we look at year to date, you've done a QSR, you've done XOL. It looks like the strategy remains sort of balanced accessing different markets, but I'm curious if you're seeing anything in terms of pricing in those markets that either gives you pause or will lead you in one direction or the other.

Adam Pollitzer (President and CEO)

Yeah. Why don't both Aurora and I take it? I'll give you a perspective on what we're seeing broadly in the market, how we're continuing to manage around what we observe in the market, and then we touch on reinsurance where we are fully placed on a forward basis for several years from here. I think maybe I'll just comment broadly on the market and what we're observing because you're right, the headlines are out there. I think there are real reasons to be encouraged about the backdrop in which we're operating against, right? The economy continues to grow, the job market remains healthy, and some of those long-term secular drivers of demand remain fully intact. It's not surprising that we're continuing to see broad-based resilience in the market, a resiliency in the market nationally.

However, as we've noted really for a while now, we do see differences emerging in different geographies, right? Parts of Florida, Texas, the Sun Belt, and Mountain West absolutely remain under pressure, but this is really nothing new. These are the areas that saw some of the most significant price increases during the pandemic rally, and they're now facing a more pronounced supply-demand reset. Overall, what that means is that the housing market itself is moving more towards a point of equilibrium. What we expect is that the pace of appreciation nationally will continue to normalize from where it's been, and it had been obviously on a record run even coming out of the pandemic for an extended stretch, and that we will continue to see differences emerge market by market.

As to what that has us doing as a risk matter, as an underwriting matter, as a credit selection matter, it's really nothing new, right? This is exactly the same theme that we've been watching, that we've been talking about, that we've been pricing for, and that we've been managing around for a long time now. We're in the fortunate position that we don't have to be reactive to what we're seeing emerge now because it's exactly what we've anticipated for so long. There are reasons why we actively price through Rate GPS and have the ability to manage our mix across 950 different MSAs, and we'll continue to use the tools that we've developed to do that. We don't have any concerns, and we don't expect any significant changes, right? We want to be balanced.

We want to obviously take all the steps that we need to to protect our balance sheet, protect our ability to deliver strong results for shareholders, but also make sure that we're showing up constructively in all markets at all times for our lenders and their borrowers. We're in a terrific, terrific position today as to what it means for our risk transfer program. I'll turn it to Aurora.

Aurora Swithenbank (CFO)

Yeah, I'm happy to take that one. As Adam articulated, we've already secured last fall both quota share and XOL coverage for all of our 2025 production and all of our 2026 production and a partial placement of our 2027 production year. We're not looking to do anything specific or extra as a result of the current macro environment or housing market. At the same time, our typical cadence is that we'll meet with our reinsurance partners in the back part of the year and place our forward flow deals. I think you'll see us doing that over the next couple of quarters. I'd also say that alongside our sort of normal forward flow transactions, we always think about ways that we can optimize our coverage in terms of lowering costs, getting additional coverage.

You may see us tweak certain contracts or exercise certain call rights with respect to transactions that are outstanding. We don't really see any pressing need to do something different today.

Rick Shane (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Got it. It's very helpful, and I appreciate the sort of reminder on the cadence of the way the programs work. It's helpful. Thank you, guys.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Mark Hughes from Truist Securities. Please go ahead.

Mark Hughes (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Yeah, thanks. Good afternoon.

Aurora Swithenbank (CFO)

Good afternoon.

Mark Hughes (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Adam, any update on the competitive environment? How is pricing relative to your peers, any new developments there?

Adam Pollitzer (President and CEO)

I'd say broadly speaking, the industry pricing is, as we observe it, balanced and constructive. I'd say we continue to be encouraged by the unit economics that we're achieving on new business. Today at NMI, where we should be, we're at a point, again, I mentioned this in my response to Rick, where we're fully and fairly supporting our customers and their borrowers. At the same time, we're using rate, among other tools, to protect our balance sheet, manage our risk, and make sure that we're able to deliver returns for shareholders. It's a constructive environment as we look out.

Mark Hughes (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Yeah. On the OpEx side, were there any kind of one-timers that helped out, or is that just a function of leverage?

Aurora Swithenbank (CFO)

What I'd say on the expense side is that we typically do see a decline from Q1 to Q2 in terms of absolute dollars. That's the typical annual reset of the FICA and the 401(k) bonus matching that occurs in the first quarter. We do typically see a more heavy expense load in Q1 versus Q2. There were some other ins and outs, but there were no one-offs or anything particular that I'd point to.

Adam Pollitzer (President and CEO)

Yeah, really just a strong quarter of discipline and efficiency that we always try to maintain.

Mark Hughes (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

On investment income, likewise, any kind of non-recurring items, or is that just growth in the portfolio?

Aurora Swithenbank (CFO)

Yeah, you could see that there were some small dispositions, which is the difference between GAAP net income and the adjusted net income, but truly de minimis in the context of a portfolio of this size. The growth in the book yield that you've been seeing, not just this quarter, but the past several quarters, is just as a result of the sort of normal investing activity at the current interest rate and spread environment, reinvesting principal and interest as it comes due, and then, of course, the free cash flow from the business.

Mark Hughes (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Anything on the default front, new notices around catastrophes? I don't know whether you had the recoveries coming off of maybe the wildfires. Anything like that that is worth calling out?

Aurora Swithenbank (CFO)

Nothing that we'd call out in particular. We have a population of hurricane-related defaults largely related to hurricanes Milton and Helene. I was trying to merge those two names there, Milton and Helene. That was 625 at the end of the first quarter, and now it is 421 as at the end of the second quarter. Those tend to cure at a higher than normal rate compared to other NODs, and we're seeing exactly the behavior that we'd expect in that population. You mentioned the wildfires. Just given the home price point in the geographic area affected by the wildfires in Southern California, we have a very limited number of NODs, single-digit number of NODs related to those regions.

Adam Pollitzer (President and CEO)

Maybe just a broader view on kind of how things trended. I'd say overall, we continue to be encouraged by the credit performance of the portfolio, including trends in the default population. The broad resiliency that we've seen in the economy, the labor market, house prices still sitting near or at record highs in most markets, continues to set a favorable backdrop. Our existing borrowers remain incredibly well situated with strong credit profiles, and given the quality of our book, we're continuing to see that translate through to our default experience and overall credit performance.

Mark Hughes (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

When you look at the recoveries in the quarter, anything that you would put your finger on that was kind of the more important driver of that home price appreciation? Anything else that you would isolate rather than just a broad credit performance?

Adam Pollitzer (President and CEO)

No. You're saying recovery, and I guess we'll look at it and say it's cure activity, right? It's those borrowers who've been in default who have been able to find their footing, come out of default, and resume payments on their mortgage in a timely fashion. What we are generally seeing is, right, borrowers have a better ability to cure themselves out of a default position. One, if you are operating against a favorable macro backdrop with a strong labor market, those borrowers who fell behind because they lost their job have the ability to find new employment quickly, and that still remains the case. Other borrowers benefit from significant amounts of embedded equity where, even if they can't cure out of a default on their own, they can still sell their way out of a problem before they ultimately progress to a claimable outcome. Those trends are still there.

We could talk about how they sit relative to where we were in prior periods, but that broad favorable backdrop continues to come through. The one other item that we've noted that does play through, and it's in the first half, is the seasonal dynamic in our default population. Recall we've talked about this in the past, but borrowers in the first half generally benefit from either the receipt of bonus income for some of them or, on a much broader sense, tax refunds which come through. The tax refund can be applied by borrowers who've fallen behind to help them catch up. That trend doesn't then follow in the third or fourth quarter because seasonally they're not getting tax refunds in the third quarter, and in the fourth quarter, there's a new outflow with many families choosing to prioritize spending for the holidays and other year-end expenses.

That dynamic still came through. The pattern that you see in our default experience and our default population aligns with what we've seen in past years because of that seasonal dynamic as well.

Mark Hughes (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you very much.

Operator (participant)

As a reminder, if you have a question, please press star one. The next question comes from Bose George from KBW. Please go ahead.

Bose George (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Hey, everyone. Good afternoon. On the regulatory front, FHFA put out this notice for comment on the Equitable Housing Finance Plans. Does that potentially have an impact on the MI footprint, or is there anything else that you see from the FHFA that could impact the MI footprint?

Adam Pollitzer (President and CEO)

Yeah, I'll talk about the Equitable Housing Finance Plans. I'd say it was a notice of proposed rulemaking, right? It's not a final outcome. We'd say even if the plans are eliminated, we still expect that the broad idea of access and affordability is going to remain central to housing policy decisions in D.C. Policymakers and regulators across all administrations have always worked to identify ways to support borrowers, increase available supply, provide expanded access to homeownership. Formally eliminating the Equitable Housing Finance Plans doesn't change this really at all. We don't expect that the announcement is going to have any consequential impact on our business or our market at this point.

Bose George (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. You feel like the change is more of a reduction in the regulatory side as opposed to actual loans that flow through these programs?

Adam Pollitzer (President and CEO)

Again, I don't want to speak for the FHFA on this as to what the ultimate intent is. They'd already announced an issue. The FHFA, in I think it was in the first quarter or early in the second quarter, had already issued an order terminating all special purpose credit programs that were supported by the GSEs. I think it was actually late in March. We haven't seen any change really of consequence flow through from that, so we're not expecting that this next step in terms of the proposal to eliminate the Equitable Housing Finance Plans will have an impact either.

Bose George (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Okay, great. Actually, just one more regulatory one as well. You know, you noted the mortgage insurance premium tax deduction. Do you know what percentage of borrowers use that in terms as opposed to just itemized or using the standard deduction?

Adam Pollitzer (President and CEO)

Yeah. Again, it's going to depend on the environment on the year. I think what we generally observe is that prior to the passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, you had about 70% of filers were taking a standard deduction. That number has increased to 90% with the passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and the increase in the standard deduction. We think that this is a common sense provision. It will provide a benefit to many homeowners. It's really about providing borrowers benefit and relief. It's because of those numbers, right? If you only have roughly 10% of filers who itemize, it's not going to necessarily have a dramatic, dramatic impact on our borrower base, but there will certainly be borrowers who deserve the benefit and will be able to now harvest it.

Bose George (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Okay, great. That's helpful. Thanks.

Operator (participant)

This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to management for closing remarks.

Adam Pollitzer (President and CEO)

Thank you again for joining us. We'll be participating in the JPMorgan Future of Financials Forum virtually on August 12, the Barclays Financial Services Conference in New York on September 8, and the Zelman Housing Conference in Boston on September 12. We look forward to speaking with you again soon.

Aurora Swithenbank (CFO)

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.