Navios Maritime Partners - Earnings Call - Q1 2021

Transcript

Speaker 0

Thank you for joining us for Navios Maritime Partners First Quarter twenty twenty one Earnings Conference Call. With us today from the company are Chairman and CEO, Ms. Angeliki Frangou Chief Financial Officer, Mr. Statos Lisipris and Executive Vice President of Business Development, Mr. Georgios Agniotis.

As a reminder, this conference call is being webcast. To access the webcast, please go to the Investors section of Navios Partners' website at www.naviosmlp.com. You will see the webcast link in the middle of the page and a copy of the presentation referencing today's earnings conference call will also be found there. Now I will review the Safe Harbor statement. This conference call could contain forward looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 about Navios Partners.

Forward looking statements are statements that are not historical facts. Such forward looking statements are based upon the current beliefs and expectations of Navios Partners' management and are subject to risks and uncertainties, which could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward looking statements. Such risks are more fully discussed in Navios Partners' filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. This information set forth herein should be understood in light of such risks. Navios Partners does not assume any obligation to update the information contained in this conference call.

The agenda for today's call is as follows. First, Ms. Francois will offer opening remarks. Next, Mr. Lesippis will give an overview of Navios Partners' financial results.

Then Mr. Achniotis will provide an operational update and an industry overview. And lastly, we'll open the call to take questions. Now I turn the call over to Navios Partners' Chairman and CEO, Ms. Angeliki Frangou.

Angeliki? Thank you, Doris, and good morning

Speaker 1

to all of you joining us

Speaker 2

on today's call. I am pleased with the results for the first quarter of twenty twenty one. During Q1, total revenue of Navios Partners and Navios Containers was $108,800,000 and total adjusted EBITDA was $56,400,000 Post merger, as you can see on Slide four, approximately 57% of our fleet is comprised of drybulk vessels and another 43% of containerships calculated by number of vessels. We expect these two segments to serve us well through normal industry cyclicality. Slide five, we show the world GDP growth since 1970.

As you can see, global GDP growth is projected to be 6% in 2021. This will be the highest growth rate in the past fifty years. The percentage increase also understates the expected impact. Nominal global GDP in 2019 was about $88,000,000,000,000 This is almost 30 times larger than global GDP of $3,000,000,000,000 in 1970s. Stated another way, the expected 2021 GDP growth is almost two times the entire GDP of the world in 1970s.

Consequently, we optimistic about demand for drybulk and drybulk vessels throughout 2021. Slide six details our premier drybulk shipping platform. Navios Partners has a top 10 publicly listed drybulk fleet with 89 vessels comprised of 51 dry bulk vessels and 38 container ships. We expect that that diversified fleet would insulate us from some industry cyclicality as dry bulk and dry cargo have different demand drivers given that one segment is based on transportation of raw materials composed of mineral and agricultural commodities and the other segment is focused on transportation of finished goods. You can already see the impact of these different drivers in our available days.

Given the strength in the container industry, in part driven by pandemic economy needs, we fixed about 89% of our available days. In contrast, while the drybulk began to strengthen in 2021 and is continuing, we have over 62% of our drybulk available days open or on index linked charters. We expect that these two segments housed in a single company make for a stronger entity. The fiscal strength of our operating platform is visible in our operating breakeven. Contracted revenue for the remaining nine months of 2021 exceeds total estimated fleet expense by $21,200,000 We are still well positioned to capture the increasing charter rate as about 40% of our available days are either open or indexed linked.

Lastly, we have a strong balance sheet with low leverage. Our net debt to capitalization is 38.3%. I note that as vessel values increase in response to the rate market, vessel book values are less than the current vessel values. This is in sharp contrast to the past number of years where vessel book values were larger than market values often significantly. Slide seven goes through NMM's recent development.

During Q1, we generated $108,800,000 in total revenue, dollars 56,400,000.0 in total adjusted EBITDA and $27,100,000 in total adjusted net income. We completed the merger on March 31. However, even without the merger, we were renewing and expanding our fleet. We agreed to acquire 11 vessels with an average age of three point four years for about $360,000,000 and sell five vessels with an average age of 13 for $66,700,000 As a result of all these activities, our containership fleet capacity increased by three times, while we reduced the average age of our company ships by 11%. For the drybulk segment, we increased capacity by 22% and reduced the average age by 14%.

As an update to our debt facilities, we arranged almost $500,000,000 in new financing year to date, dollars 200,000,000 of which will be used to refinance existing facilities and $300,000,000 of which will be used to finance new acquisitions. Dollars 200,000,000 of these new acquisitions will be on bareboat. Moreover, post this refinancing, we have no significant debt maturities until 2023. Additionally, we have strong cash flow potential for the remaining nine months of the year. We have 22,949 available days.

Our current contracted revenue exceeds the total fleet expenses by $21,200,000 and about 40% of our available days are still open or index linked allowing us to generate significant additional free cash flow. Slide eight further describes our fleet renewal and expansion. As I mentioned previously, our 89 vessel fleet is top 10 among globally publicly listed dry cargo fleet. We acquired 29 container ships through the merger. We are acquiring an additional 11 vessels for $360,000,000 while selling five vessels for $66,700,000 Since the end of twenty twenty, our fleet has grown by 65% or 35 vessels.

Darling into each vessel class, NMM containership fleet capacities has grown by three times, while its average days has reduced by 11%. And NMM dry bulk fleet capacity has grown by 22%, while the average age has reduced by 14%. Slide nine dives into the details of $500,000,000 in new financing arrangements that I touched upon a little earlier. We are refinancing all debt that was maturing in 2021. Of the $500,000,000 in new financing arranged, dollars 200,000,000 will be used to refinance existing facilities and $300,000,000 to fund new vessel acquisitions.

Moreover, post this refinancing, we have no significant debt maturities until 2023. CI-ten details our operating cash flow for the remaining nine months of 2021. 60.8% of our available days are fixed at an average rate of $20,000 net per day. The remaining 39.2% of our available days are either open or index linked. This provides us with significant additional upside.

Our contracted revenue alone exceeds our total estimated fleet expenses by $21,200,000 It is simple calculation to see our cash flow potential given the current market average daily charter rate of $29,839 per day in our available days. Thus, we believe NMM is well positioned for a strong 2021. Slide 11 shows our liquidity position. As of 03/31/2021, we had total cash of $51,400,000 and total borrowings of 701,200,000 Our net debt to book capitalization is 38.3% and our debt maturities as target with no significant debt maturities until 2023. At this point, I would like to turn the call over to Mr.

Stratos Desypris, Navios Partners' CFO, who will take you through the financial results of the first quarter of twenty twenty one. Stratos?

Speaker 3

Thank you, Angeliki, and good morning all. I will briefly review our unaudited financial results for the first quarter ended 03/31/2021. The financial information is included in the press release and is summarized in the slide presentation available on the company's website. As Angeliki mentioned earlier, the merger with Navios Containers was completed on March 31. As a result, the balance sheet of Navios Containers, together with the respective purchase price allocation adjustments, are included in Navios Partners' balance sheet as of the end of the quarter.

However, the results of operations for Q1 do not include the results of Navios Containers and this will be included commencing from April 1. In order to understand better the new combined entity, we are presenting the results of operations for Q1 twenty twenty one for both Navios Partners and Navios Containers as well as the total results of the two entities added together. As this is more representative of the results of operation of Navios Partners going forward, the below presentation discusses the total results of the two entities. Moving to the earnings highlights on Slide 12. Total revenue for Q1 twenty twenty one was $108,800,000 Approximately 60% of revenue comes from Navios Partners, while the remaining is the revenue of Navios Containers.

EBITDA net income for Q1 twenty twenty one included $80,800,000 of gain from the revaluation of our investment in Navios Containers as a result of the merger. I would like to point out here that in 2019, our investment was written down by $42,600,000 Also included in EBITDA and net income in Q1 twenty twenty one is a $44,100,000 gain from the completion of the merger and the purchase price allocation to the assets and liabilities of Navios Containers. Excluding these items, total adjusted EBITDA for Q1 amounted to $56,400,000 of which $33,700,000 comes from Navios Partners and $22,700,000 from Navios Containers. Total adjusted net income was 27,100,000.0 During the quarter, we had a total of six thousand eight hundred and eleven available days with a fleet utilization of approximately 99%. Turning to Slide 13, I will briefly discuss some key balance sheet data as of 03/31/2021.

Cash and cash equivalents were $51,400,000 Long term borrowings, including the current portion, net of deferred fees amounted to $701,200,000 Net debt to book capitalization reduced to 38.3% at the end of the quarter. Slide 14 shows the details of our fleet. Our fleet is in the top 10 publicly listed dry cargo fleet globally as measured by a number of vessels. We have a large modern diverse fleet of 89 vessels with a total capacity of 8,200,000 deadweight tons. Our fleet consists of 51 drybulk vessels and 38 container ships.

In Slide 15, you can see our chartering strategy for the remaining nine months of 2021. Our diversified fleet allows us to take advantage of the different fundamentals across the sectors we operate to maximize profitability. We have currently fixed 60.8% of our 22,949 available days for the remaining nine months of 2021. We have capitalized on the strength of the containership market and fixed almost 90% of our available containership days enjoying healthy rates. Additionally, we are positioning our drybulk fleet for what we hope will be a strong second half of twenty twenty one, and we have market exposure on 62.4% of our days.

In Slide 16, you can see our ESG initiatives. Maritime shipping is the most environmentally friendly means of transportation as it is the most carbon efficient mode of transport. We aspire to have zero emissions by 02/1950. In this process, we have been pioneering and we are adopting certain environmental regulations up to two years in advance, aiming to be one of the first fleet to achieve full compliance. Navios is a socially conscious group whose core values include diversity, inclusion and safety.

We have very strong corporate governance and clear code of ethics. Our Board is composed by majority independent directors and independent committees that oversee our management and operations. I now pass the call to George Acmeotis, Executive Vice President of Business Development to discuss the industry section. George?

Speaker 4

Thank you, Stratos. Please turn to Slide 18. With the help of a strong second half, 2020 ended the year with a BDI averaging ten sixty six. Today, the BDI stands at 2,889 with a year to date average up over 200% compared to the same period last year and the highest it has been in eleven years. Governments having put in place emergency monitoring fiscal plans to support their economies have kick started faster than expected the recovery in the world economy.

This has led the IMF to increase its 2021 world GDP growth projection to 6%, the highest in fifty years and a further 4.4% in 2022. Pent up demand and restocking is expected to push demand growth well above net fleet growth supporting the recent dramatic rise in rates. In what is normally a seasonal low period, rates in all asset classes have risen sharply reflecting surge in trade driven by strong demand for both major and minor bulk commodities. Q1 twenty twenty one average rates are the highest since 2010. 2021 drybulk trade growth projections were recently revised upwards to 3.81.9% increase in 2022.

Turning to Slide 19, demand is forecast to outpace net fleet growth in both 2021 and 2022. The graph on the left shows that for 2021 drybulk demand for the three major cargoes of iron ore, coal and grain is forecast to increase by 4% compared to 2020. If you look at the graph on the right, net fleet growth is forecast to be 2.8% this year and one percent for 2022. Net fleet growth is expected to remain low over the next few years as the order book is the lowest on record. Turning to Slide '20, despite the pandemic, global iron ore demand is expected to increase by 3.1% this year.

Additional availability of iron ore shipments to China are expected to increase steel mills replenish stockpiles driving demand for Capesize vessels. Forecasts are also for growth in iron ore imports around the world as the effects of the pandemic recede. Europe's imports are expected to grow by 17% and Asia excluding China is expected to import 12% more iron ore in 2021 than in 2020. Please turn to Slide '21. Asian coal imports, which account for over 80% of the world seaborne coal trade are expected to increase by 4.8% in 2021 following a decline of 6.5% in 2020.

The 2020 decrease was mainly attributed to Indian and Chinese imports declining by 118% respectively. Vietnam and other Southeast Asian countries increased coal imports by 11% in 2020 and are expected to further increase imports by 8% this year. Turning to Slide '22, an ever increasing world population, food security issues driven by the pandemic, as well as increasing protein demand worldwide continues to support the global grain trade. While grain production this year will reach a record according to the International Grains Council and the USDA. Worldwide grain trade has been growing by 5% CAGR since 02/2008, mainly driven by Asian demand, which increased by 14.4% in 2020 and is expected to increase a further 5.5 in 2021.

Overall, total well grain trade increased by 7.1% in 2020 and is expected to increase by 2.5% in 2021. Please turn to Slide 23. The current order book stands at a record low of 5.5 of the fleet. Newbuilding contracting was down 49% in 2020 compared to 2019. Through the April 2021, contracting is down by about 17% compared to the same period last year.

Accordingly, 2021 net fleet growth is expected at 2.81% for 2022 below the projected increase in drybulk demand for years. Turning to Slide '24, vessels over 20 years of age are about 7.5% of the total fleet, which compares favorably with the previously mentioned record low order book. Scrapping totaled 15,800,000 tons in 2020, almost double the 2019 total. Year

Speaker 3

to

Speaker 4

date scrapping has totaled 4,300,000 tons, which is on pace for a total of 14,000,000 tons. Please turn to Slide 26, focusing on the container industry. As previously mentioned, stimulus measures have caused recovery of consumption in the advanced economies at the same time that there is increasing the industrial production and economic growth in China. This targeted stimulus has led to a historic turnaround in global container trade. As you can see in the chart on the lower right, freight rates for all main routes from China rose dramatically from mid year twenty twenty.

Increases in consumer demand for goods, port congestion and restocking led to containership demand growth of 6% in 2021 and three point eight percent in 2022. The increased demand is expected to exceed supply in both years. Please turn to Slide '27. There is a rapid market recovery has caused extremely high demand for available tonnage, which is in short supply across all segments. In particular, the extremely tight availability of Panamaxes combined with port congestion, increasing trade and lack of newbuildings has propelled period time charter rates to hit sixteen year highs or 43.5% of it dollars per day for periods up to a year.

SCFI box rates have climbed 264% from April 2020 to April 2021 spared by the early restart of the Chinese economy and from continuing demand for consumables and pandemic related supplies worldwide. Turning to Slide '28, low containership ordering for the over the past two years has set the stage for manageable fleet growth of 4.3% this year and 2.4% next. Even in this high demand environment, scrapping will continue as 8.4% of the fleet is currently 20 years of age or older. In conclusion, positive demand fundamentals mainly due to the restart of economic activity around the world along with reduced fleet availability should continue to support both the drybulk and containerized sweeping industries in their continued effort to navigate through the easing pandemic storm. And this concludes my presentation.

I would now like to turn the call over to Angeliki for her final comments. Angeliki?

Speaker 1

Thank you, George. This completes formal presentation and we open the call to questions.

Speaker 5

Your first question comes from the line of Chris Wetherbee with Citi.

Speaker 6

Hi, this is Liam on for Chris. Thank you for taking my question. So first, I just wanted to ask about your fleet renewal program. I know you guys have been very active with vessel purchases and sales so far in 2021. But I just wanted to understand that after taking into account all these transactions, do you believe that your fleet renewal is largely complete at this point or do you still believe that you have a lot, you know, more transactions that might need to take place before you can get your average age for your vessels down to the level that you're looking for?

Speaker 1

I think the real you have two elements. You have the fleet renewal and the business model. And basically, the drive the strength of our business model is the diversification. So what we are doing is we have been of course, we are selling older vessels, we are getting younger vessels and we are positioning our portfolio. And you have seen that we have been extremely busy and that has provided us a great strength.

I mean, we are in two sectors, the container market, the dry bulk market, totally different dynamics. We are having the container market that shipping is a big category and we have seen the different dynamics of shipping. Container the container market is all about finished products, used to be in the beginning of the recovery about what the PPEs, personal protective equipment, now it's about all these electronics that are needed and there is more to come from this. And this is a market that is more of a time charter market, period market. And you have seen we have taken a good advantage doing almost 90% of our days fixed there, while we are also in the drybulk market, an area where it's in the earlier stage of recovery is about commodities, about not only foodstuff food security, but also minerals, about steel production.

So this is an area where we see a lot of upside coming. And it is we have over 60% of our days available days open in a market that is more accustomed to spot and index, well developed market, and that's where we see that the cash flow generation can be quite significant. So our position is based on our view on these segments and also on where we are in the different segments.

Speaker 6

Okay. That makes sense. And just kind of following up on some of the points you mentioned about the containership market. So I know that 89% of your days for 2021 are fixed, but I'm just I know that also the rates have surged recently. I'm just kind of wondering if you could explain a little bit more about your chartering strategy.

And given the recent surge in rates, are you guys looking to lock in those vessels at multiyear charters? Or are you just still are you more interested in keeping them on relatively short term charters to still take advantage of any potential further increases in rates?

Speaker 1

That's a very good question. The thing is that we are capturing very good cash flows and we have seen rates going from the 20s to the 30s to the 40s and we have been able to capture these on multi years. But you have to understand that the container market is a time charter market. So you will fix it and you will use it as a portfolio. It will never be a spot market.

Your upside, if you want to see the real barometer of the spot market is a drybulk where you can have an index like the vessels we're buying at a premium to the index. So you have every day recalculating to the new rate. So basically, you are facing and you have a view on the market and you are facing, but no matter what it will be a period charter on the container market. You don't have the spot market that we have on the dry bulk. And all of this managing these available days and creating this hard work is what has done provide us now to be with 9,000 if you have seen in Page 10, you have about 9,000 open and index days at an average market rate of around 29,000, almost 30,000.

And the drybulk is something you can see that reset every day and easily you can capture this upside. The majority of these days are basically dry bulk days.

Speaker 6

Okay. Thank you. And just one final question just for more from a modeling standpoint. I know that you have about fourteen thousand days fixed at 20,000 per day and then about 9,000 open as you mentioned. Should we be just thinking that your average combined TCE rate should be above 20,000 per day for the remaining quarters of 2021, you know, based on the current rate market and the fixed days as well?

Speaker 3

I mean, as Angeliki mentioned, you see in Page 10, I mean, based on the current market rates, the average of our fleet, the open days of our fleet is around almost $30,000 per day. So assuming that this market will continue, this is going to be the mix of our fleet. But as I said, mean, on the strength of the market always.

Speaker 6

All right. Thank you for taking my questions.

Speaker 5

Your next question comes from the line of Randy Giveans with Jefferies.

Speaker 7

Hi, this is Chris Robertson on for Randy. Thanks for taking our call.

Speaker 6

Good morning. Good morning.

Speaker 7

Referring to the very active S and P market you guys are involved in, do you expect that you'll continue to be active? Is this going to slow? Are you still out there looking at potential acquisitions? And lastly, what was the reasoning behind the sale of the Dedication?

Speaker 1

It's always in we have a portfolio and in the portfolio you select where you buy and where you sell. I mean, if you relative to what you bought, you create a very comfortable and high return. I think it makes sense to take advantage of the opportunity because you can redeploy in an asset that you can actually see the ramp up of this portfolio. That is what means diversification on investing. And you may sell one vessel at a rate that is about $10,000,000 above what has the last sale happened and you can time charter another vessel to about $45,000 for a long period.

So it is a decision, it's an economic rationale, whatever it makes sense depending on conditions you will do.

Speaker 7

Okay. That's fair. So I guess with the balance sheet in great shape, the merger completed, the new vessels acquired, going forward, what will it take to increase the distribution? And how do you think you'll balance that with unit repurchases now that you're trading at a discount to NAV?

Speaker 1

I will say that this is something that I will repeat. We are in an early stage of recovery on segments. We have been on the last seven years in a difficult market and we are seeing a market that is really strengthening. But basically, you have been in an early stage for that. We like to we see that there is a great opportunity on the returns that we provide to our investors if we invest money today.

And also because the cash flow that we'll be generating will be quite significant by any merger. And also the other issue that we are looking very much is about a low leverage. Today, have a low leverage. And this is a significant cash flow for our investors and making sure that we are acquiring and as I said, we are in an early stage of the recovery and also keeping a low leverage that will provide us good returns in the overall cycle.

Speaker 7

Okay. Yes. And last question for us. Just in terms of operational strategy for those dry bulk vessels that are on open days or expiring in the coming months. What's your strategy in terms of spot versus longer term time charters for those?

Speaker 1

On the dry bulk, it's a more spot market. So I will say that the reality is that you will see it more doing index. I mean, the drybulk market has an index market that is very well developed. You have a good representation of what the index is. And we have really managed very well our portfolio to do index, which basically resets every day.

And we usually have on the index the ability to convert to every any quarter or the year convert it into fixed. So basically what we will see on the drybulk, we see that we'll do more index days. So that is the strategy we usually follow because it's well developed index and you have the ability to capture the upside that the market is turning up.

Speaker 7

Got it. Thank you.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Speaker 5

At this time, there are no further questions. I'll turn the call back over to Angeliki for closing remarks.

Speaker 1

Thank you. This completes our Q1 results. Thank you.

Speaker 5

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. That does conclude today's conference call. We thank you for your participation and ask that you please disconnect your lines.