Navios Maritime Partners - Q3 2023

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Thank you for joining us for Navios Maritime Partners Q3 2023 earnings conference call. With us today from the company are Chairwoman and CEO, Ms. Angeliki Frangou, Chief Operating Officer, Mr. Stratos Desypris, Chief Financial Officer, Ms. Erifili Tsironi, and Vice Chairman, Mr. Ted Petrone. As a reminder, this conference call is being webcast. To access the webcast, please go to the investor section of Navios Partners website at www.navios-mlp.com. You'll see the webcasting link in the middle of the page, and a copy of the presentation referenced in today's earnings conference call will also be found there. Now, I will review the Safe Harbor statement. This conference call could contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 about Navios Partners. Forward-looking statements are statements that are not historical facts.

Such forward-looking statements are based upon the current beliefs and expectations of Navios Partners management and are subject to risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. Such risks are more fully discussed in Navios Partners filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The information set forth herein should be understood in light of such risks. Navios Partners does not assume any obligation to update the information contained in this conference call. The agenda for today's call is as follows: First, Ms. Frangou will offer opening remarks. Next, Mr. Desypris will give an overview of Navios Partners segment data. Next, Ms. Tsironi will give an overview of Navios Partners financial results. Then Mr. Petrone will provide an industry overview. And lastly, we'll open the call to take questions. Now, I turn the call over to Navios Partners Chairwoman and CEO, Ms. Angeliki Frangou.

Angeliki?

Angeliki Frangou (Chairwoman and CEO)

Good morning, and thank you all for joining us on today's call. I am pleased with the results of the Q3 of 2023, in which we reported revenue of $323 million and net income of about $90 million. We are also pleased to report net earnings per common unit of $2.92 for the quarter. Before I provide some comments on the company, I would like to share my views regarding economic sentiment. The U.S. economy is generally healthy, but there are clouds on the horizon. The U.S. has high government debt levels and the highest peacetime fiscal deficit. The Fed is engaged in quantitative tightening, and there is a risk of interest rates rising further from their current relatively elevated levels. China, the world's largest consumer of commodities, is not firing on all cylinders.

These factors, along with the wars in Ukraine and Israel, have contributed to making this one of the most dangerous times in memory. Despite these clouds, the shipping market is robust and healthy. Our company is doing well and positioned for all weather. We continue to focus on things that we can control, such as reducing leverage, being eco-friendly by keeping a modern energy-efficient fleet, and expanding into areas which we will promote our long-term prospects, such as the recent tanker deals we entered into with various oil majors. Navios Partners is a leading publicly listed shipping company, diversified in 15 asset classes in three sectors, with an average vessel age of about 9.6 years. We have 180 vessels split roughly equally into three sectors based on a charter-adjusted value. Please turn to slide 7.

We have about $270 million of cash on our balance sheet. In the Q3, we earned about 5.3% on an annualized basis on our cash balances. In addition, we are positioned well for the Q4, as we have $52 million of contracted revenue in excess of cash expenses and 2,304 open index days. In the Q3, we entered into the transshipment business. We modified the Navios Vega Ultra Handymax vessels to have the equipment necessary to provide transshipment operations and entered into a five-year charter with Navios South American Logistics. The vessel is expected to commence this operation in the Q4 and generate about $30 million of EBITDA over the course of its charter. The vessel itself in this trade should have an extended useful life of about 30 years. Please turn to slide 8.

We provide an S&P update. Year to date, 2023, we generated $255.2 million gross proceeds from the sale of 14 vessels. In the first nine months of the year, we received $242 million, and we received $13 million balance in the Q4 of 2023. In terms of acquisition, we spent $421.6 million for four new buildings, scrubber-fitted Aframax LR2 vessels and four Japanese new buildings MR2 vessels. We also spent $28 million to acquire a 2019-built Kamsarmax vessel that we previously chartered in. We continue to work on obtaining long-term contracted revenue.... In the Q3, we created $257.9 million of contracted revenue.

Of this amount, we expect to receive $171.9 million from five tankers with an average charter period of 3.8 years. In addition, we expect to receive $47.1 million from the vessel we placed into the transshipment business. Finally, we expect to generate $38.9 million from three 4,250 TEU container ships, average about $18,300 net per day for 1.9 years. This year, we were approached by certain counterparties to enter into amendments that would relieve them of certain liabilities. We facilitate this transaction at an estimated $10.2 million net present value benefit to Navios.

$3.5 million of this value is attributable to a $52.5 million prepayment of charter hire for two container ships, and $6.7 million of this value is, was attributable to charter amendment and extension for two container ships. Please turn to slide 9. Since our transformation in 2020, our financial performance has been strong. Our nine months 2023 adjusted EBITDA is 11.4% higher than nine months 2022. Looking backwards, 2022 was 57% higher than 2021 and almost 570% higher than 2020. We believe that our diversified business model can continue to perform in difficult markets. I now turn the presentation over to Mr. Stratos Desypris, Navios Partners Chief Operating Officer. Stratos?

Stratos Desypris (COO)

Thank you, Angeliki, and good morning, all. Please turn to slide 10, which details our strong operating free cash flow potential for the Q4 of 2023. We fixed 83% of our available days at an average rate of $23,610 net per day. Our contracted revenue exceeds expected total cash expense for Q4 2023 by about $52 million. We have 2,304 open index, index-linked days that will provide additional profitability. Please turn to slide 11. We are always renewing the fleet so that we maintain a young profile. It is part of our strategy to reduce our carbon footprint by modernizing our fleet, benefiting from newer technologies and eco vessels with greener characteristics.

We have $1.7 billion remaining investment in 28 newbuilding vessels delivering to our fleet through 2027, for which most of the financing has already been in place. In container ships, we acquired 12 vessels for a total of about $860 million, which we hedged by entering into long-term creditworthy charters, generating about $1.1 billion in contracted revenue for about 6.5 years average duration of the related charters. In the tanker space, we acquired 16 vessels for a total price of approximately $885 million. We have already chartered out 10 of these vessels for an average period of five years, generating revenues of about $500 million. The dry bulk newbuilding program of eight vessels was completed in June 2023, with the delivery of the last Capesize vessel.

We have also been active in opportunistically selling, selling older vessels based on segment fundamentals. Year to date, we have sold 14 vessels with an average age of approximately 15 years for $255.2 million. We sold seven tanker vessels for about $160 million, take advantage of a strong tanker market. Also, we sold seven dry bulk vessels for a total price of $95.4 million. Our last sale was a 19.3-year-old Capesize vessel, which we sold within Q4 for $13 million. Moving to slide 12. We continue to secure long-term employment for our fleet. As Angeliki mentioned earlier, in Q3, we have created about $260 million additional contracted revenue. Approximately $172 million comes from our tanker fleet, and about $40 million comes from our, from our container ships.

Additionally, we agreed a five-year contract with Navios Logistics for Navios Vega, one Ultra Handymax vessel that was modified to perform transshipment operations, which is expected to provide about $50 million in revenue. The vessel is expected to be delivered within the Q4. Additionally, we amended charters for four of our container ships. For two of the vessels, we agreed a prepayment of hire of $52.5 million, and the assumption of the subcharters that the vessels are currently on. This prepayment was received in October and resulted in a net present value benefit of approximately $3.5 million.

For the remaining two vessels, we have agreed to amend the current charter rate and extend the duration of the charters for an additional 2.4 years at an implied rate of $18,000 net per day, creating $31.7 million additional revenue and resulting in a net present value benefit of approximately $6.7 million. In Slide 13, you can see our total contracted revenue, which amounts to $3.3 billion. $1 billion relates to our tanker fleet, $0.4 billion relates to our dry bulk fleet, and $1.9 billion relates to our container ships. Charters are extending through 2037 with a diverse group of quality counterparties. About 50% of our contracted revenue will be earned in the next two years.

I now pass the call to Erifili Tsironi, our CFO, which will take you through the financial highlights. Eri?

Erifili Tsironi (CFO)

... Thank you, Stratos, and good morning, all. I will briefly review our unaudited financial results for the Q3 and nine months ended September 30, 2023. The financial information is included in the press release and is summarized in the slide presentation available on the company's website. Moving to the earnings highlights on slide 14, total revenue for the Q3 of 2023 slightly increased to $323.2 million, compared to $322.4 million for the same period in 2022. Time charter revenue for the period is understated by $9.7 million because U.S. GAAP rules require the recognition of revenue for our charters with de-escalating rates on a straight line basis.

Available days increased by 6.7% to 13,759, compared to 12,897 for the same quarter last year. Our average combined time charter equivalent rate for the Q3 of 2023 was $22,052 per day, 7.3% lower than Q3 2022 levels. In terms of sector performance, both tankers and containers enjoyed improved rates compared to the same period last year. TCE rates for the Q3 of 2023 for our tankers increased by 26.8% to $27,688 per day, and for our containers by 5.4% to $34,350 per day.

In contrast, our dry fleet TCE rate was 29.5% lower compared to the same period last year, at $14,139 per day. EBITDA, net income and EPU were adjusted due to the following gains from sale of vessels. For Q3 2023, $7.2 million. For the first nine months of 2023, $50.8 million, and for Q3 and first nine months 2022, $143.8 million. Excluding these items, adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2023 decreased by 2.3% to $173.7 million, compared to $177.7 million for the same period last year.

Adjusted net income for Q3 2023 decreased by 27% to $82.6 million, compared to $113.4 million in Q3 2022, mainly due to the negative effect of a $21.3 million reduction in the positive income of the amortization of unfavorable leases, and a $6.3 million increase in our interest expense, net of interest income, due to the increase in our debt levels and interest rate costs. Adjusted earnings per common unit for Q3 2023 were $2.68. Total revenue for the first nine months of 2023 increased by 16.7% to $979.6 million, compared to $839.7 million for the same period in 2022.

Time charter revenue for the period is understated by $30.2 million, because U.S. GAAP rules require the recognition of revenue for our charters with de-escalating rates on a straight line basis. The increase in revenue was mainly a result of a 16.5% increase in our available days to 41,239, compared to 35,394 for the same period in 2022. Our combined time charter rate for the first nine months of 2023 was slightly lower at $22,242 per day, compared to the same period last year. In terms of sector performance, both tankers and containers enjoyed improved rates compared to the same period last year.

Time Charter Equivalent rate for the first nine months of 2023 for our tankers increased by 62.7% to $29,014 per day, and for our containers by 14.6% to $34,930 per day. In contrast, our dry fleet TCE rate was 36.3% lower compared to the same period last year, at $13,613 per day. Excluding the items mentioned earlier, adjusted EBITDA for the first nine months of 2023 increased by 11.4% to $520.5 million, compared to $467.3 million for the same period in 2022.

Adjusted net income for the first nine months of 2023 decreased by 21% to $250.5 million, compared to $317.2 million for the same period last year. Our net income was negatively affected by a $47.8 million reduction in the positive impact of the amortization of unfavorable leases, and a $43.4 million increase in our interest expense, net of interest income, due to the increase in our debt levels and interest rate costs. Adjusted earnings per common unit for the first nine months of 2023 were $18.13. Turning to slide 15, I will briefly discuss some key balancing data. As of September 30, 2023, cash and cash equivalents were $269.2 million.

In the first nine months of 2023, we paid $225.9 million of pre-delivery installments and other capitalized expenses under our building program, and $83.9 million for vessel acquisitions and improvements. We sold 13 vessels for $237.4 million, net adding $153 million cash after the repayment of the respective debt. Long-term borrowings, including the current portion, net of deferred fees, slightly reduced to $1.93 billion. Net debt to book capitalization decreased to 36.4%. Slide 16 highlights our debt profile. We continue to diversify our funding resources between bank debt and leasing structures, while 36% of our debt has fixed interest at an average rate of 5.6%.

We also try to mitigate part of the increased interest rate cost, having reduced the average margin for our floating debt by approximately 40 basis points to 2.3% from 2.7% at 2022 year-end. Our maturity profile is staggered, with no significant balloons due in any single year. In terms of our new building program, 82% of our new building financing is already concluded or in documentation phase at an average margin of 1.8%. During the quarter, we arranged a total of $92.3 million to refinance existing leasing facilities, where we managed to decrease respective margins and extend maturities. Turning to slide 17, you can see our ESG initiatives. We continue to invest in new energy efficient vessels and reduce emissions through energy-saving devices and efficient vessel operations.

Navios is a socially conscious group whose core values include diversity, inclusion, and safety. We have strong corporate governance and clear code of ethics, while our board is composed by majority independent directors. I now pass the call to Ted Petrone to take you through the industry section. Ted?

Ted Petrone (Vice Chairman)

Thank you, Eri. Please turn to slide 20 for the review of the tanker industry. World GDP is expected to grow at 3% in 2023 and 2.9% in 2024, based on the IMF's October forecast. There's an 85% correlation of world oil demand to global GDP growth. In spite of economic and geopolitical uncertainties, the IEA projects a 2.3 million barrels per day increase in world oil demand for 2023 to 101.9 million barrels per day, and a 0.9 million barrels per day increase in 2024. Chinese crude imports continued to rise, averaging 11.4 million barrels per day through September, a 14.6% increase over the same period last year.

Following a very strong H1, tanker rates softened slightly as Q3 seasonality played out, accentuated by reduced exports, refinery maintenance and inventory drawdowns. Recently, rates have risen on the back of rising demand and increased refinery throughput as the autumn maintenance season finishes. The recent Saudi and Russian crude export cuts have been somewhat mitigated by increased Atlantic exports, which have elevated volatility for the larger vessels. Turning to slide 21, as previously mentioned, both crude and product rates remain strong across the board due to healthy supply and demand fundamentals, minimal fleet growth and shifting trading patterns. Product tankers are also aided by healthy refinery margins and discounted Russian crude exported to the Indian Ocean and the Far East, returning to the Atlantic as clean product.

Crude ton mile growth is expected to increase by 6.2% in 2023, and a further 4.9% in 2024. Similarly, product ton miles anticipated increases stand at 11.3% and 6.1% for 2023 and 2024 respectively. Turning to slide 22, VLCC net fleet growth is projected at 2.3% for 2023, and a negative fleet growth of 0.9% for 2024. This decline can be partially attributed to owners' hesitance to order expensive, long-lived assets in light of macroeconomic uncertainty and engine technology concerns due to CO2 restrictions in force since the beginning of this year. The current low order book is only 2.7% of the fleet, or only 24 vessels, the lowest in 30 years.

Vessels over 20 years of age are 14.1% of the total fleet, or 129 vessels, which is over 5x the order book. Turning to slide 23, product tanker net fleet growth is projected at 2.1% for 2023 and only 1.1% for 2024. The current product tanker order book is 10.2% of the fleet, one of the lowest on record, and is approximately equal to the 9.8% of the fleet, which is 20 years of age or older. In concluding the tanker sector review, tanker rates across the board continue at strong levels.

The combination of the low average global inventories, growth in global oil demand, new longer trade routes for both crude and products, as well as the lowest order book in three decades, and the IMO 2022 regulations should provide for healthy tanker earnings going forward. Please turn to slide 25, the review of the dry bulk industry. For the majority of Q3, normal seasonality played out, assisted by unwinding congestion and soft demand outside China. However, Chinese raw material demand continued to increase on the back of sustained economic stimulus and pre-winter stockpiling, especially for coal and iron ore. This led the BDI to more than double from 962 on July 25th to 2,105 on October 18th. After a recent retracement, the BDI currently stands at about 1,400.

With regard to iron ore and coal, Chinese continuing stimulus measures and pre-winter stocking should assist imports through the year-end. The global grain trade is impacted by the war in Ukraine, shifting trading patterns toward longer haul routes. Seaborne grain trade volume is expected to grow by 2.7% in 2024, added by ton mile growth of 3.6%.... Going forward, supply and demand fundamentals remain intact. A normal seasonally stronger Q4, the historically low order book, declining net fleet growth, and tightening GHG emissions regulations remain positive factors, which are reflected in the Time Charter and S&P markets. Please turn to slide 26. The current order book stands at 8% of the fleet, one of the lowest since the early 1980s.

Net fleet growth for 2023 is expected at 2.9% and only 2.2% in 2024, as owners remove tonnage that has been uneconomic due to IMO 2023 CO2, enforced since the beginning of the year, and the Emissions Trading System starting in Europe at the beginning of next year. Vessels over 20 years of age are about 8.3% of the total fleet, which compares favorably with the historically low order book. In concluding our dry bulk sector review, continuing demand for natural resources, congestion at the Panama Canal, war and sanction-related longer haul routes, combined with a slowing pace of new deliveries, all support freight rates going forward. Please turn to slide 28.

Container rates, although still above pre-pandemic levels, continue to soften on the back of elevated deliveries and lower imports by Western consumers, partially attributed to the end of stimulus-fueled spending and other macroeconomic issues, including inflation. Although trade is expected to grow by 3.8% in 2024, new building deliveries in 2024 and 2025 will be equivalent to approximately 20% of the fleet after a record net fleet growth of 7.7% this year. This should continue to pressure rates for some time. The Shanghai Container Freight Index, or SCFI, currently at 1,013, which is 5% lower than opening the year at 1,061. As you note in the graph in the lower right, the U.S. retail inventory to sales ratio is off the recent low, but still well below the long-term average.

The graph on the lower left, a recent slowdown of U.S. consumer purchases of goods, although still above pre-pandemic levels. Lower imports have eased port takeaway bottlenecks and port congestion. Turning to slide 29. Net fleet growth is expected at 7.7% for 2023 and 6.8% for 2024. The current order book stands at 26.7% against 10.7% of the fleet, 20 years of age or older. About 72% of the order book is for 10,000 TEU vessels or larger. In concluding the container sector review, supply and demand fundamentals remain challenged due to economic and geopolitical uncertainties and an elevated order book. Over the prospect of Chinese stimulus and world GDP growth of 3% for 2023 and 2.9% in 2024 provide a counterpoint for a challenging 2023. This concludes our presentation.

I would now like to turn the call over to Angeliki for her final comments. Angeliki?

Angeliki Frangou (Chairwoman and CEO)

Thank you, Ted. We open the call. This is, concludes our formal presentation. We open the call to questions.

Operator (participant)

At this time, if you would like to ask a question, please press the star and one on your touchtone phone. You may remove yourself from the queue at any time by pressing star and two. Once again, that is star and one if you would like to ask a question. And we will take our first question from Omar Nokta with Jefferies. Your line is now open.

Omar Nokta (Managing Director)

Thank you. Hey, guys, good morning and good afternoon. Thanks for the update, as always. You know, obviously, Navios has been, you know, focused on keeping a pretty nice and sizable contract, you know, backlog here at $3.3 billion, which is basically, you know, flat with last quarter. You've highlighted the amend and extend on the container ship charters, which makes sense given the pullback, obviously, in that market. And you highlighted that they are NPV positive. Wanted to ask in general, you know, what-- can we expect more of these in the near term? Is this something that we will continue to see in the container market?

And then also, you know, with respect to Navios, and then do you think that there's potential that's happening with the new buildings as well, or is this more of, a dynamic that's affecting some of the existing tonnage that was fixed at the height of the market?

Angeliki Frangou (Chairwoman and CEO)

Good morning, Omar. Actually, your observation is correct. The container is a weak, in a weak moment, so these kind of transactions happen. I mean, counterparties will ask for for amendments. And of course, we, we only do things that make sense for Navios, so we are very careful about that. We basically got about over $10 million of post-event NPV. We do not see this happening on others. And these are actually, it was a counterparty that uniquely left the sector, or came in when there was a very robust situation and logistics had to be resolved. And this kind of counterparties really were not strategic to the area, to the to the sector. I don't know if-

Omar Nokta (Managing Director)

Thank you. Yeah, no, that's helpful, Angeliki. Thank you. And then wanted to follow up and ask about the transshipment business, which is, you know, clearly looks interesting. You took the Vega, if I recall, that's an older Supramax, and you fixed it for five years at that $30 million of cash flow. Obviously, that jumps out, just given especially where dry bulk rates have been. Just wanted to ask, you know, what does the cost look like to modify the ship for that transshipment business? And then also, are there opportunities to do more here on that front?

Angeliki Frangou (Chairwoman and CEO)

You know, actually, to be honest, the CapEx was very modest considering the opportunity. We are entering a unique area. We have that ability because we have the transparency into the region because of Navios South American Logistics. And yes, this business can start with one vessel and grow to more. There is also an additional tremendous benefit, and it's basically proprietary because of our transshipment vessels, then you can see more opportunities on employment on our oceangoing vessels, you know, on South America to China, on South America to Europe.

So this can create the ability of a whole sector, and that we see, you know, as a very good entry point, modest CapEx, and the ability really to extend the life of the assets. Because these assets, unlike, you know, the rest, can be 30-year plus. So basically, we are amortizing 100%. We get all our profit and CapEx on the 5 years, but we see that this can actually have additional life.

Omar Nokta (Managing Director)

Okay. Wow! Thank you. That sounds interesting and compelling, so we'll stay tuned for more to come. Maybe just one final one. You've obviously addressed this on the call, but also in the past. You know, in terms of strategic priorities, clearly fleet renewal, continuing to build backlog, is key. In terms of the balance sheet, is still, you know, the perhaps maybe the main priority is to delever and bring the net LTV down to that 20%-25% range?

Angeliki Frangou (Chairwoman and CEO)

Yes. I mean, deleveraging, sometimes you have to judge between a new opportunity and new sectors and deleveraging. But deleveraging is a target, energy efficient vessel, and creating the new sectors and new opportunities. I mean, you saw that we did a modernize. We found some unique opportunities to modernize with energy efficient vessels. And basically, the very important part of that was that we actually expanded and build more our relationship with oil majors, and that is something that we focus on on building.

Omar Nokta (Managing Director)

Yep. Great. Well, thanks, Angeliki. I'll turn it over.

Angeliki Frangou (Chairwoman and CEO)

Thank you very much.

Operator (participant)

Thank you, and we will take our next question from Chris Wetherbee with Citigroup. Your line is now open.

Chris Wetherbee (Senior Research Analyst)

Hey, thanks, guys. Appreciate the time today. I wanted to ask, Angeliki, maybe as you think about this, this entity, so you have obviously exposure to multiple end markets here. And I guess, you know, each one of them is in a little bit of a different part of the cycle. So as you're thinking about incremental capital and where you want to put that to work, how are you approaching it? I understand the new build opportunities you have, both on the container and the tanker. But as we're thinking about, you know, where you're putting, where you think about putting new capital to work, where you'd want some emphasis to be placed, where would it be?

Angeliki Frangou (Chairwoman and CEO)

Good morning, Chris. The reality is a lot of calculations, a lot of work, trying to see what is the best opportunity. I mean, you saw where we allocated a good amount of money this quarter, building, you know, entering... We have entered a new asset class, the Aframax LR2s, and we build it on that because we see efficient vessels that have the specifications that we have actually, the additional specifications. We see a lot of opportunities with the oil majors on trades that are actually expanding. Same with MR2s. We see certain counterparties that they need specific needs with, you know, short haul has higher emissions, but if you have energy efficient vessels, that can really mitigate the situation.

So we look at the opportunity and build on that. On containers, obviously, I mean, this was a previous transaction, fixed at a good time. But we always review, and we see what makes the long-term returns, what will give us the best residual value, and between providers an attractive return. So big picture is a very simple thing, attractive return over 10% and have low residual value risk, so that you have a long because the asset has a long duration.

Chris Wetherbee (Senior Research Analyst)

Okay. That's helpful. I appreciate that, and that makes sense. And I guess maybe on the other side of that coin, you know, so I think there was 14 vessels that were sold year to date. You know, can you talk a little bit about how you think about opportunities to maybe monetize some of the fleet and maybe where you want to de-emphasize or where you see relative value between asset values and charter rates today?

Angeliki Frangou (Chairwoman and CEO)

You know, basically, there is a graph that we have, usually recoveries, that we see values on, on the, you know, on the tankers with the strong values, of course, strong returns. I mean, you optimize, I mean, we optimize our fleet, and then, you know, on the dry bulk, you have more or less values and long-term earnings of the vessels, approximately about 80%, 9%. So what we are doing is, basically we see a vessel, what is maintenance CapEx? What is the age of the vessel? Knowing the regulatory environment for the next couple of years, meaning that there will be, you will have, carbon tax, there will be in Europe, there will be requirements.

So you target a vessel that makes sense at the value to sell it, and we have done that. You will think that about for the fleet we have, on an average year, we should have about at least 10 vessels renewal, basically, just to renew and keep the age. So yes, we had, you know, more vessels in the beginning. This will, in 2024, drop to about, on the average, about 10 vessels. This is not mathematically, it depends on the market, but this is approximately the kind of a renewal you will need.

Chris Wetherbee (Senior Research Analyst)

Okay. So that's the way we should be thinking about it. And obviously, I guess market determinant, you know, market fluctuations will determine kind of how aggressive you are, I guess. And then, you know, maybe just one, I guess one more on the tanker cycle as you guys think about it. Obviously, some, you know, macroeconomic concerns, you know, flowing through here. I guess, you tend to always do a really nice job outlining your thoughts on what the market looks like. I guess, as you're thinking about, you know, the potential for either a recession or slowdown materially in U.S. economic activity and demand pull kind of in developed markets, how do you think about that kind of plays out in 2024 and, you know, influences your view on oil demand?

Angeliki Frangou (Chairwoman and CEO)

You know, today, U.S. economy is still healthy. There is clouds. I mean, there is definitely clouds both on the interest rates and... But we don't see a recession today. But you also have a big effect from the wars in Ukraine and Israel. Basically, the Ukrainian war added to the ton miles. This is something that doesn't change. It will continue in our system. There is longer ton miles on our crude and product, and this is without taking any consideration of any potential, and I don't know how that will be, potential disruption because of the war in Israel. And that can have quite significant. Don't forget, the area has a lot of the oil, a lot of the gas. It can be significant in case of a disruption there.

Chris Wetherbee (Senior Research Analyst)

Okay. Okay, very helpful. Appreciate the time this morning. Thank you very much.

Angeliki Frangou (Chairwoman and CEO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We have reached our allotted time for questions. I will now turn the call back over to Ms. Angeliki Frangou for any additional or closing remarks.

Angeliki Frangou (Chairwoman and CEO)

Thank you. This concludes our results for the quarter.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. This does conclude today's program. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.