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NEXTNAV INC. (NN)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 revenue of $0.89M fell 26% q/q and 45% y/y; diluted EPS of $(0.12) beat S&P Global consensus by $0.02 while revenue missed by $0.24M, driven by very small top line against elevated operating spend . S&P Global consensus: EPS $(0.14); revenue $1.13M.
  • Reported GAAP net income of $0.48M, a notable swing from losses, due to $23.6M non-cash gains from changes in derivative and warrant liabilities; operating loss remained large at $19.9M .
  • Balance sheet liquidity remained solid with $167.6M cash and short-term investments; net long-term debt of $230.1M (includes $75.1M derivative liability; notes face value $190M) .
  • Strategic progress: extended AT&T Pinnacle network agreement to Oct 2028, achieved 5G PRS-based 3D PNT milestone, and integrated 5G timing with Oscilloquartz; management continues to advocate for FCC NPRM despite shutdown-related delays .
  • Near-term stock catalysts: FCC’s Nov 20 C-Band NPRM vote and potential prioritization of PNT NPRM thereafter; continued 5G PNT technical milestones and carrier partnerships .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Extended AT&T agreement for Pinnacle network operations by two years to October 2028, reinforcing carrier relationships and commercialization pathway for Z-axis and broader 3D PNT .
  • Achieved a major 5G PRS-based 3D PNT milestone enabling accurate timing and positioning with simultaneous data transmission on standard 5G equipment, demonstrating scalability of the solution .
  • Delivered $0.48M GAAP net income in Q3 driven by ~$23.6M non-cash gains from derivative and warrants revaluation, highlighting financial flexibility while maintaining $167.6M liquidity .

Management quotes:

  • “We look forward to continuing to support the FCC’s important work as we seek to enable a widescale, future-proof complement and backup to GPS as quickly as possible.” — CEO Mariam Sorond .
  • “In the third quarter, we recognized gains of approximately $23.6 million…resulted in net income for the quarter of nearly $500,000.” — CFO Tim Gray .
  • “We are already operating a positioning system…for public safety applications…Verizon is using that commercial solution.” — CEO on carrier relationships .

What Went Wrong

  • Revenue declined to $0.89M (−26% q/q, −45% y/y), missing S&P Global consensus by ~$0.24M; small revenue base amplifies percentage declines and keeps margins deeply negative . S&P consensus: $1.13M*.
  • Operating loss widened to $19.9M q/q and remains structurally high relative to revenue; gross margin was −130% with COGS exceeding revenue, underscoring early-stage commercialization dynamics .
  • Regulatory timing uncertainty: government shutdown halted most FCC work, delaying NPRM clarity despite ongoing advocacy and broader momentum on spectrum issues .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$1.61 $1.20 $0.89
Diluted EPS ($)$(0.11) $(0.48) $(0.12)
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)$(0.98) $(0.83) $(1.15)
Gross Margin (%)−60.9% −69.3% −130.2%
Operating Loss (EBIT) ($USD Millions)$(13.85) $(17.24) $(19.87)
EBIT Margin (%)−862.1% −1,433.7% −2,240.0%
Total Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)$15.46 $18.44 $20.75

Notes:

  • Gross Profit computed from revenue minus COGS (Q3 2024: $1.61M − $2.59M; Q2 2025: $1.20M − $2.04M; Q3 2025: $0.89M − $2.04M) .
  • Margins derived from document-reported revenue/EBIT/COGS .

Segment breakdown: Company does not disclose segment revenue in these filings .

KPIs

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Cash and Cash Equivalents ($USD Millions)$150.42 $58.87 $89.99
Short-term Investments ($USD Millions)$37.99 $117.19 $77.58
Cash + ST Investments ($USD Millions)$188.41 $176.05 $167.58
Net Long-term Debt ($USD Millions)$213.10 $246.30 $230.12
Shares Outstanding (Period End)132,281,710 133,014,673 134,727,753

Balance sheet context: Net long-term debt includes derivative liability ($56.5M in Q1; $93.8M in Q2; $75.1M in Q3) and is net of unamortized discount; notes face value $190.0M .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Financial guidance (revenue, margins, OpEx, OI&E, tax, segments, dividends)Q4 2025 / FY 2025None disclosedNone disclosedMaintained (no formal guidance)

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 2025)Previous Mentions (Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
FCC PNT process/NPRM timingFCC NOI 4–0 vote; building record; focus on market-based terrestrial solution Filed technical/economic studies; FCC consent for 128 M-LMS licenses; advocating NPRM -Actively engaging despite shutdown; believes FCC has sufficient data to issue NPRM; C-Band NPRM vote Nov 20 Continued advocacy; timing sensitive to FCC workload
Carrier partnerships (AT&T/Verizon/FirstNet)Existing Pinnacle Z-axis operations on major networks Emphasis on multi-partnership possibilities AT&T agreement extended to Oct 2028; Verizon uses commercial Z-axis; pathway to XY/full solution Strengthening; broadening scope
5G PRS-based 3D PNT technical progressEmphasis on standards-based 5G approach Deployment details presented to FCC Achieved simultaneous timing/positioning with uplink/downlink on standard 5G equipment Milestones acceleration
Spectrum landscape and transactionsBuilding lower 900 MHz position FCC consent for 128 licenses; market-based approach Management highlights scarcity and demand; references EchoStar/SpaceX; value of low-band Positive validation of asset value
Timing integration (Oscilloquartz/SiTime)—Announced partnerships; multi-source timing receiver concept Successful 5G-based timing integration with Oscilloquartz; SiTime integration noted Integration progress
International (Japan/MetCom)——Partnership with MetCom; commercial Pinnacle Altitude in Japan; regulatory progress Early international traction
AI relevance—PNT as backbone to AI for precise real-time data and critical infra Reiterated mission-critical timing/positioning implications Growing narrative
Regulatory/macro (government shutdown)——Shutdown halted most FCC work; still engaging with non-furloughed officials Temporary headwind

Management Commentary

  • “We reached a major milestone…delivering accurate timing and positioning information while simultaneously delivering both downlink and uplink data transmissions utilizing standard 5G network equipment.” — CEO .
  • “We extended our agreement with AT&T…by two years to October 2028…Verizon is using that commercial [Z-axis] solution.” — CEO .
  • “In the third quarter, we recognized gains of approximately $23.6 million…resulted in net income…nearly $500,000. [We] finished the third quarter with $167.6 million in cash…short-term investments.” — CFO .
  • “The ongoing government shutdown has halted most of the work at the FCC, but we continue to actively engage…to advocate for our proposal.” — CEO .

Q&A Highlights

  • FCC NPRM sequencing: Management expects PNT may become priority after C-Band NPRM; avoids speculating on FCC timing; continues advocacy despite shutdown .
  • Carrier strategy: AT&T extension; Verizon already uses Z-axis; plan to expand to XY/full solution contingent on regulatory progress and partnerships .
  • Spectrum market dynamics: Rising demand and transactions in low-band spectrum (reference EchoStar/SpaceX); management underscores scarcity and strategic value of 10 MHz downlink .
  • Commercialization costs/coexistence: Studies show minimal software retuning for toll transponders; no rip-and-replace; no costs for unlicensed users; confident in minimal-impact transition .
  • International/Japan: Ongoing partnership with MetCom; commercial use of Pinnacle Altitude; regulator progress; focus remains U.S. first .
  • DOT/Iridium testing: Supports “system of systems” approach; NextNav claims strongest performance in 2021 DOT testing and largest 2024 award; sees complementary roles for satellite/terrestrial .

Estimates Context

MetricQ3 2025 EstimateQ3 2025 ActualSurprise
Revenue ($USD)$1.1315M*$0.887M Miss of $(0.2445)M*
EPS (Primary, $)$(0.14)*$(0.12) Beat of $0.02*
# of Estimates (Revenue)2*——
# of Estimates (EPS)2*——

Values with asterisk are retrieved from S&P Global (Wall Street consensus). Actuals from company filings.

Implications:

  • Revenue miss and continued negative gross margin likely weigh on near-term sentiment; EPS beat driven by non-cash fair value gains rather than operational leverage, so estimate revisions may focus on revenue trajectory and operating expense cadence rather than EPS optics .

Guidance Changes

  • No formal quantitative guidance (revenue, margins, OpEx, OI&E, tax rate, segment/dividends) was provided or updated for Q4/FY25 in the Q3 2025 materials .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Regulatory path remains the primary value driver; watch for FCC post-shutdown cadence and any move toward a PNT NPRM following the Nov 20 C-Band NPRM vote .
  • Carrier engagement is strengthening (AT&T extension; Verizon commercial Z-axis), suggesting potential for broader partnerships as XY and full 3D PNT mature .
  • Financials reflect early-stage commercialization: very low revenue vs sizable OpEx keeps margins deeply negative; EPS optics this quarter benefited from non-cash valuation gains rather than core improvement .
  • Liquidity is strong ($167.6M cash/ST investments); 2028 convert maturity and potential warrant exercises provide runway, but net long-term debt and derivative liability warrant monitoring .
  • Technical milestones (5G PRS-based 3D PNT, Oscilloquartz timing integration) and “system of systems” positioning with DOT context underpin the medium-term thesis around resilient PNT .
  • Near-term trading: Stock likely sensitive to FCC headlines, additional carrier/partner announcements, and proof points from further 5G PNT tests and integrations .
  • Estimate revisions: Expect sell-side to scrutinize revenue pace and OpEx trajectory; EPS revisions may discount non-cash drivers and look for sustainable improvement in gross margin and operating losses .