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    NOAH HOLDINGS (NOAH)

    NOAH Q1 2025: First-year premiums climb 90% on liquid product surge

    Reported on May 29, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$10.77Last close (May 29, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$10.53Open (May 30, 2025)
    Price Change
    $-0.24(-2.23%)
    • Increased demand for liquidity-focused structured products: Investors are showing a preference for products with flexible redemption features and incorporating AI concepts as part of their investment mix, suggesting a shift towards innovative products that can effectively manage market volatility.
    • Rising insurance premiums as a sign of market confidence: The boost in first-year premiums from around 100,000 to 190,000 highlights a strong uptake in tailored insurance solutions, indicating positive client sentiment in the insurance segment.
    • Global diversification supporting resilient growth: Clients are increasingly adopting a global asset allocation strategy to mitigate geopolitical risks, reflecting confidence in diversified overseas investment products despite external uncertainties.
    • Increased market volatility leading to cautious client behavior and a shift toward highly liquid products, as investors favor products with flexibility which may limit long-term investment returns.
    • Uncertainty for business owners due to tariff introductions, with some manufacturing orders reportedly suspended, potentially signaling broader economic weakness.
    • Product mix adjustments amid competitive pressures, where the emphasis on structured, liquid products may signal challenges in achieving sustainable growth in a volatile market environment.
    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Market Conditions and Strategy

    Q1 2025

    no prior guidance

    Anticipation of increased market volatility throughout the year due to global trade uncertainties, lack of coordination among major global economies on monetary policies, and competition in AI applications. ; Clients are advised to maintain disciplined asset allocation, prioritize geographic diversification, build robust portfolios, and adjust asset allocation when needed.

    no prior guidance

    Overseas Business Expansion

    Q1 2025

    no prior guidance

    Plans to expand the overseas team of relationship managers, particularly in Singapore, Southeast Asia, the U.S., Japan, and Canada. ; Aim to grow the overseas commissions-only insurance agent team to 150 agents by the end of the year.

    no prior guidance

    Insurance Business

    Q1 2025

    no prior guidance

    Focus on creating new marketing models and growing the team of commission-only agents to enhance insurance sales.

    no prior guidance

    Product and Technology Development

    Q1 2025

    no prior guidance

    Investment in technologies such as AI to improve online services and plans to offer a wider range of products, including trust, relocation, and cross-border solutions.

    no prior guidance

    Financial Performance and Shareholder Returns

    Q1 2025

    no prior guidance

    Plans to distribute annual and special dividends totaling RMB 550 million in July, representing 100% of its non-GAAP net income for 2024, subject to AGM approval. ; USD 50 million share buyback program, with over 1.3 million ADS already repurchased.

    no prior guidance

    Operational Efficiency

    Q1 2025

    no prior guidance

    Implementation of rigorous cost control measures, resulting in decreased operating costs and expenses.

    no prior guidance

    Client Base and Market Sentiment

    Q1 2025

    no prior guidance

    Continued growth of Noah's client base, particularly overseas, with confidence in capturing a larger share of clients' U.S. dollar wallets for investment products.

    no prior guidance

    Revenue Trend

    FY 2025

    Optimism for recovery in 2025, driven by rebounding client sentiment and growing demand for overseas investment products. They expect the decline in RMB private market products and associated recurring service fees to be offset by the expansion of overseas investment portfolios.

    no current guidance

    no current guidance

    Insurance Business

    FY 2025

    Plans to refine clients' safety nets within asset allocation, with potential growth in insurance products for succession planning and asset segregation.

    no current guidance

    no current guidance

    Overseas Relationship Managers (RMs)

    FY 2025

    Intention to increase overseas RM headcount to approximately 200 in 2025 through lateral recruitment and campus hiring, and establish a business development team.

    no current guidance

    no current guidance

    Domestic Market

    FY 2025

    Expectation for stabilization and recovery, supported by improved client sentiment and strategic restructuring of sales teams.

    no current guidance

    no current guidance

    Overseas Expansion

    FY 2025

    Continued investment in overseas markets, including Hong Kong, Singapore, and the United States, while exploring opportunities in Japan, Canada, and Southeast Asia.

    no current guidance

    no current guidance

    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Global Asset Allocation

    In Q3 2024, Noah highlighted using RMB assets to capture global beta returns and provided long‐term asset allocation advice. In Q4 2024, they emphasized the importance of global asset allocation amid market volatility and underscored the need for certainty amid uncertainty.

    In Q1 2025, Noah reiterated the need to maintain disciplined asset allocation, with a strong focus on geographic diversification to build robust portfolios amid increased volatility and uncertainty.

    Consistent focus with an increased emphasis on diversification and disciplined portfolio management in response to heightened market volatility.

    International Expansion

    In Q3 and Q4 2024, Noah detailed expanding relationships overseas, growing relationship manager teams (with significant percentage increases) and initiating new office openings in key markets like the U.S., Japan, and Canada.

    In Q1 2025, Noah continued its push overseas – reinforcing its expansion strategy with the opening of a new Tokyo office, plans for markets in Singapore, Southeast Asia, the U.S., Japan, and Canada, and further growth in overseas insurance channels.

    Continued strong focus on international expansion, with incremental deployment and broader geographic coverage.

    AI-based Investment Products and Innovations

    In Q3 2024, AI-related opportunities were noted as part of growth strategies, and Q4 2024 identified artificial intelligence as a major investment theme for 2025, influencing both primary market and public securities decisions.

    In Q1 2025, AI-based investment products are described as increasingly popular among investors, with plans to invest in AI technologies to enhance online services.

    Strengthened emphasis on AI innovations as investor interest grows, with increased integration into product development and online platforms.

    Liquidity-Focused Structured Products

    Although Q4 2024 did not explicitly mention “Liquidity-Focused Structured Products,” discussions on liquid investment products (such as NAV-based hedge funds) and, in Q3 2024, increased revenue from liquidity products were noted.

    In Q1 2025, there is a specific focus on structured products with liquidity features, as client concerns about liquidity are clearly driving product preferences.

    New level of specificity: While liquidity was always a factor, the current period places sharper focus on structured products that offer redeemable liquidity features.

    Insurance Market Dynamics and Competitive Pressures

    Q3 2024 discussions stressed domestic revenue declines in insurance and highlighted operational challenges, while Q4 2024 detailed competitive pressures, compliance challenges, and regulatory changes in the Hong Kong market along with shifts towards commission-only agent models.

    In Q1 2025, Noah addressed both overseas and domestic insurance market dynamics – noting a decline in insurance revenues, strategic shifts towards tailored products and compliance, and plans to expand commission-only agent teams to improve competitiveness.

    Persistent challenge with evolving strategies: Competitive pressures remain strong, but Noah is adapting its product mix and agent models to address regulatory and market dynamics.

    Client Sentiment and Engagement Trends

    Q3 2024 revealed a rebound in client trading activity and greater willingness to engage for one-on-one asset allocation advice. Q4 2024 highlighted client sentiment recovery, major client summits, and improved engagement due to market rebounds.

    In Q1 2025, client sentiment reflects concerns over market volatility—driving interest in liquidity-enhanced products and AI-linked investments, although overall engagement shows signs of adapting to new market realities.

    Shift in focus: Whereas previous periods emphasized broad engagement and event-driven sentiment recovery, the current period shows clients honing in on specific product features (liquidity, AI) in response to volatility.

    Market Volatility and Economic Uncertainty

    Q3 2024 noted a rebound in A-share trading alongside a long-term, cautious asset allocation approach, while Q4 2024 acknowledged ongoing global volatility and a sluggish macroeconomic environment impacting performance.

    In Q1 2025, volatility is expected to increase further due to factors such as political uncertainties and global trade issues (e.g. debates over Trump’s return), driving clients toward more liquid and diversified solutions.

    Heightened caution: The theme remains central, but current discussions reflect a more explicit integration of geopolitical and economic uncertainties into strategic advice.

    Tariff and Trade Uncertainty Effects

    There were no mentions of tariff and trade uncertainty effects in the Q3 and Q4 2024 earnings calls.

    In Q1 2025, Noah introduced tariff and trade uncertainty effects – noting that some trade-related clients (especially small manufacturers) are experiencing order suspensions, though the impact is viewed as short-term.

    Newly emerged topic: Tariff and trade uncertainties have become a focus in Q1 2025, suggesting an emerging concern among client segments tied to global commerce.

    Operational Transition and Efficiency Challenges

    Q3 2024 discussions covered the transition to a client-centric sales model and cost control initiatives—with cost reductions in operating expenses and improvements via reduced middle/back-office headcount. Q4 2024 detailed extensive restructuring domestically and overseas with efforts to streamline operations and control costs.

    In Q1 2025, Noah reported rigorous cost control measures yielding an 18.8% year-over-year reduction in operating costs, along with a surge in operating profit and strategic initiatives like a share buyback program to further enhance shareholder returns.

    Consistent focus with measurable improvements: The company continues to refine its operational model, with continued cost efficiency and strategic transitions that are now producing stronger operating margins.

    Domestic Market Strategy and Missed Opportunities

    Q3 2024 reviewed challenges in domestic segments – with significant revenue declines in RMB-denominated products, weak performance in domestic insurance, and adjustments in domestic product strategies. Q4 2024 elaborated on restructuring efforts, a reduction in domestic operating cities, and noted missed revenue opportunities in insurance and recurring fees.

    In Q1 2025, Noah’s domestic strategy emphasizes a renewed focus on Renminbi-denominated private secondary products, online services through branch consolidation, and also highlights missed opportunities in domestic insurance and mutual funds due to lower distribution and weaker investor sentiment.

    Ongoing challenges: There is a persistent struggle to capture domestic market growth, with evolving strategies that underline both renewed focus areas and recognition of missed revenue opportunities.

    1. Market Volatility
      Q: How are clients reacting to market volatility and tariffs?
      A: Management observed that while some smaller manufacturers experienced short-term order suspensions due to tariffs, overall client sentiment remains mature, with investors increasingly favoring liquid and structured products—including those with an AI edge—to better navigate fluctuating markets.

    2. Overseas Guidance
      Q: What drives overseas business and insurance recovery?
      A: Management emphasized strong overseas expansion through tailored products, noting encouraging signs like first-year premiums rising from 100,000 to 190,000, which points to a positive momentum for both overseas insurance and broader investment opportunities.

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