Executive Summary

Q1 2025 delivered underwriting profitability with a 94.4% combined ratio and basic EPS of $0.31; direct written premiums fell 18.4% on intentional pullbacks in Non-Standard Auto as the company prioritized profitability over growth .
Year-over-year performance was broadly stable (combined ratio +0.5 pts; EPS flat), while sequentially metrics softened versus a strong Q4 2024 (combined ratio 80.0% → 94.4%; EPS $0.47 → $0.31) as underwriting normalized post a very strong prior quarter .
Strategic actions were reinforced during the quarter: exiting Nevada and sharply reducing Chicago non-standard auto exposure; leadership enhancements including a new CIO to accelerate tech modernization; and AM Best downgraded certain issuer credit ratings, citing multi-year volatility yet with stable outlooks, spotlighting execution risk and a potential stock narrative catalyst .
No formal guidance or Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) estimates were available for EPS or revenue; future estimate adjustments, if any, likely hinge on underwriting outcomes in Non-Standard Auto and weather trends in Home & Farm .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Underwriting profit sustained: combined ratio of 94.4% on strong Home & Farm and Private Passenger Auto performance; net investment income +3.0% to $2.8M .
Strategic execution: “We are pleased to start off 2025 with another quarter of underwriting profitability... favorable weather conditions and lower large loss frequency in our Home and Farm segment” — Seth Daggett, President & CEO .
Core market momentum: Growth in Home & Farm (+7.1% DWP) driven by North Dakota new business, rate, and insured value increases .

What Went Wrong

Top-line contraction: direct written premiums fell 18.4% YoY, reflecting accelerated non-standard auto exits and reductions to restore profitability .
Sequential normalization from Q4: combined ratio deteriorated from 80.0% to 94.4% and EPS declined from $0.47 to $0.31 QoQ, tempering momentum from Q4’s strong underwriting and investment results .
External rating action: AM Best downgraded Long-Term ICRs (Nodak members to “a” from “a+”; NI Holdings to “bbb” from “bbb+”) citing volatility from weather, inflation, non-standard auto, and prior-year reserve development; outlooks revised to stable, highlighting execution risk as a near-term investor concern .

Financial Results

Consolidated Performance vs Prior Periods

Metric	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Direct Written Premiums ($USD Millions)	$67.704	$73.084	$67.728
Net Earned Premiums ($USD Millions)	$83.270	$71.787	$67.497
Loss & LAE Ratio (%)	78.2%	45.8%	57.1%
Expense Ratio (%)	32.8%	34.2%	37.3%
Combined Ratio (%)	111.0%	80.0%	94.4%
Net Income Attributable ($USD Millions)	$(2.705)	$9.848	$6.460
Basic EPS ($USD)	$(0.13)	$0.47	$0.31
Return on Avg Equity (%)	(4.5%)	16.2%	10.4%

Segment/Driver Highlights (Q1 2025)

Segment/Driver	Q1 2025 Direction	Quantitative Change
Non-Standard Auto	Intentional contraction	DWP −58.8% YoY
Home & Farm	Growth in ND	DWP +7.1% YoY
Investment Income	Higher asset base	$2.8M (+3.0% YoY)

KPIs (Q1 2025)

KPI	Q1 2025	YoY Change
Direct Written Premiums ($USD Millions)	$67.728	(18.4%)
Net Earned Premiums ($USD Millions)	$67.497	(3.4%)
Combined Ratio (%)	94.4%	+0.5 pts
Net Income ($USD Millions)	$6.460	(6.8%)
Basic EPS ($USD)	$0.31	flat

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Overall guidance	FY/Quarterly	Not provided	Not provided	Maintained (no formal guidance)

No formal quantitative guidance ranges were provided in the Q1 release or 8-K .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

No Q1 2025 earnings call transcript or conference call materials were found on the company’s Quarterly Results page (press release, financial supplement, and 10‑Q only) .

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q3 2024)	Previous Mentions (Q4 2024)	Current Period (Q1 2025)	Trend
Non-Standard Auto profitability actions	Unfavorable prior-year development; strategic refocus post Westminster sale	Continued reserve development; initiated aggressive actions to address issues	Exited Nevada; reduced Chicago exposure to restore profitability	Intensifying remediation; footprint shrink to profitability
Weather/Cat events in Home & Farm	Higher weather-related losses in ND; combined ratio elevated	Improved weather aided strong underwriting	Favorable weather; lower large loss frequency supporting CR <100%	Weather normalization favorable in Q1
Investment income	+32.5% YoY in Q3 from higher reinvestment rates	Strong portfolio; meaningful YoY increase referenced	+3.0% YoY; consistent yields on higher asset base	Continued support from rates; growth moderating
Technology/Modernization	Not highlighted	Strategic plan focused on people/technology investments	New CIO appointed; modernization initiatives to support growth	Execution phase begins
Ratings/Regulatory	Not highlighted	Not highlighted	AM Best downgrade of Long-Term ICRs; stable outlooks	External scrutiny; execution risk highlighted
Geographic focus (ND/SD)	ND weather a headwind	ND/NE improved; refocus on core ND foundation	Targeted organic growth actions in ND/SD; distribution/underwriting expansion	Concentrated regional strategy

Management Commentary

“We are pleased to start off 2025 with another quarter of underwriting profitability... benefiting from favorable weather conditions and lower large loss frequency in our Home and Farm segment.” — Seth Daggett, President & CEO .
“While overall top-line direct written premiums decreased year-over-year, the reduction was driven by accelerated execution of aggressive strategic actions focused on returning our Non-Standard Auto segment to profitability.” — Seth Daggett .
“Looking ahead, we will refocus our efforts on development of a comprehensive long-term strategic plan centered around our strong and longstanding foundation in North Dakota, including increased investments in people and technology...” — Seth Daggett (Year-end release) .
Executive leadership strengthened, including appointment of a CIO to lead technology modernization supporting growth .

Q&A Highlights

No Q1 2025 earnings call transcript was available; therefore, no Q&A themes or clarifications could be extracted .

Estimates Context

S&P Global consensus estimates for Q1 2025 EPS and revenue were unavailable; S&P Global provided actual revenue only, with no consensus entries for the period.

Metric	Q1 2025 Actual	Q1 2025 Consensus	Surprise
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$71.434*	N/A	N/A
EPS ($USD)	$0.31	N/A	N/A

Values retrieved from S&P Global*. Where consensus was unavailable, comparisons to estimates could not be made.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Profit-first pivot: Non-Standard Auto exits and reductions are compressing premium volumes but should support improved underwriting stability and lower reserve volatility over time .
Core strength: Q1 combined ratio of 94.4% and stable EPS reflect resilient Home & Farm and Private Passenger Auto performance under favorable weather and targeted underwriting actions .
Sequential moderation: Expect normalization from Q4’s exceptionally strong 80.0% combined ratio; watch for continued improvement or setbacks in Non-Standard Auto development trends .
Ratings narrative: AM Best downgrades (stable outlooks) elevate focus on execution, reserve adequacy, and underwriting discipline—potentially influencing investor sentiment and valuation multiples near term .
Investment tailwind: Higher reinvestment rates continue to support investment income; sustaining this benefit can cushion underwriting fluctuations .
Regional growth thesis: ND/SD-focused distribution and underwriting actions are driving Home & Farm growth; monitor new business quality and retention as rate/insured values rise .
Near-term watch items: Catastrophe activity in ND, progress on non-standard auto remediation, and any future guidance or expanded disclosures in financial supplements/10-Qs to refine estimates and trajectory .

NI Holdings, Inc. (NODK)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary