Executive Summary

Q3 2025 showed an improvement vs catastrophic Q2 but remained unprofitable: combined ratio 109.1% (down 16.0 pts QoQ), net loss of $1.7M, and basic loss per share of $(0.08), better than $(0.57) in Q2 .
Home and Farm premiums grew 10.1% YoY on rate, insured values, and ND new business, while Non-Standard Auto DWP fell 80.0% YoY; management ceased non-standard auto writings in IL, AZ, and SD to stabilize underwriting going forward .
Investment income rose 8.1% to $3.0M, partially offset by lower equity unrealized gains; net investment gains fell 43.5% to $1.4M .
No formal earnings call transcript or forward guidance was issued; capital deployment remains active with an incremental $5M repurchase authorization announced on Aug 25 (total ~$6.3M available) .
Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for EPS and revenue was not available for Q3 2025; investors should focus on underwriting actions and loss development trends rather than near-term estimate beats/misses.*

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Home and Farm momentum: premiums up 10.1% YoY via rate, insured values, and ND new business growth, partially offsetting auto headwinds .
QoQ underwriting improvement: combined ratio improved to 109.1% from 125.1% in Q2, as the quarter lacked the outsized North Dakota catastrophe that added 30.2 pts to Q2’s loss ratio .
Investment income strength: net investment income increased 8.1% to $3.0M driven by higher reinvestment rates in fixed income .
Quote: “We…made the strategic decision to stop writing non-standard auto business in Illinois, Arizona and South Dakota…we believe this shift positions us for stronger underwriting performance and greater stability moving forward.” — Cindy Launer, CEO .

What Went Wrong

Non-Standard Auto reserve deterioration: unfavorable prior year loss reserve development added 11.2 pts to Q3’s combined ratio (vs. 7.2 pts prior year), keeping consolidated results above break-even .
Top-line contraction: direct written premiums fell 13.7% YoY to $58.5M due to shrinking Non-Standard Auto, despite Home and Farm growth .
Ratings context: AM Best downgraded the Long-Term ICRs for Nodak Insurance Group members and NI Holdings in May, citing multi-year volatility from weather events, inflation in loss costs, and adverse trends in non-standard auto; the outlooks moved to stable .
Analyst concern: Q2 highlighted a $20.0M catastrophe loss exceeding the $20M reinsurance retention, demonstrating tail-risk exposure that can spike loss ratios and elevate volatility .

Financial Results

Quarterly Operating Metrics (Continuing Operations)

Metric	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Direct Written Premiums ($USD Thousands)	$67,728	$109,519	$58,458
Net Earned Premiums ($USD Thousands)	$67,497	$73,005	$71,905
Loss and LAE Ratio (%)	57.1%	91.2%	78.2%
Expense Ratio (%)	37.3%	33.9%	30.9%
Combined Ratio (%)	94.4%	125.1%	109.1%
Net Income (Loss) Attributable ($USD Thousands)	$6,460	$(12,051)	$(1,666)
Basic EPS ($USD)	$0.31	$(0.57)	$(0.08)

Notes:

Q2 included pre-tax catastrophe losses of $20.0M which increased the loss and LAE ratio by 30.2 pts .
Q3’s combined ratio remained elevated due to Non-Standard Auto prior-year reserve development (11.2 pts) .

S&P Global Quarterly Financials

Metric	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Revenues ($USD)	$70,335,000*	$76,151,000*	$74,945,000*
Diluted EPS - Continuing Operations ($USD)	$0.3074*	$(0.5728)*	$(0.08)*
Net Income - (IS) ($USD)	$6,460,000*	$(12,051,000)*	$(1,666,000)*
Net Income Margin (%)	9.04%*	(15.84%)*	(2.18%)*
EBIT Margin (%)	10.85%*	(20.15%)*	(2.43%)*

Values marked with an asterisk were retrieved from S&P Global.*

Year-over-Year Highlights (Q3 2025 vs. Q3 2024)

Net earned premiums: $71.9M, down 13.6% YoY .
Direct written premiums: $58.5M, down 13.7% YoY .
Combined ratio: 109.1%, improved by 1.9 pts YoY .
Basic loss per share: $(0.08), improved from $(0.13) .
Net investment income up 8.1% to $3.0M; net investment gains down 43.5% to $1.4M .

Segment/Line Highlights (Q3 2025)

Segment/Line	YoY Change	Commentary
Non-Standard Auto	(80.0%)	Strategic exit from IL, AZ, SD; adverse PY reserve development driving elevated combined ratio
Home and Farm	+10.1%	Growth from rate, insured values, and ND new business; lower retention/new business in NE partially offset
Private Passenger Auto	N/A	Not quantified in Q3; was part of strong underwriting performance in Q1

KPIs and Return Metrics

KPI	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Return on Average Equity (%)	10.4%	(19.4%)	(2.7%)
Net Investment Income ($USD Millions)	$2.8	$2.7	$3.0
Net Investment Gains ($USD Millions)	N/A	N/A	$1.4
Catastrophe Losses (pre-tax, net) ($USD Millions)	N/A	$20.0	N/A

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Share Repurchase Authorization	Ongoing	~$1.3M remaining under May 9, 2022 plan	Additional ~$5.0M authorized (total ~$6.3M available)	Raised
Revenue, Margins, OpEx, OI&E, Tax Rate	Q4 2025 / FY 2025	None provided	None provided	Maintained (no formal guidance)
Segment-Specific Guidance	Q4 2025 / FY 2025	None provided	None provided	Maintained (no formal guidance)
Dividends	Ongoing	Not disclosed	Not disclosed	N/A

Management emphasized underwriting actions (exit of certain non-standard auto geographies) rather than formal numerical guidance .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

No Q3 2025 earnings call transcript was available for NODK during the review period.

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q1 & Q2)	Current Period (Q3 2025)	Trend
Non-Standard Auto actions	Q1: Exit NV and reduce Chicago premiums to improve profitability . Q2: Continued unfavorable PY reserve development; strategic decrease in Non-Standard Auto premiums .	Ceased writing in IL, AZ, SD; PY reserve development added 11.2 pts to combined ratio .	Continued rationalization; expected underwriting stabilization over time
Weather/Catastrophes	Q1: Favorable weather aided Home & Farm . Q2: ND catastrophe exceeded $20M retention; +30.2 pts to loss ratio .	No outsized catastrophe cited; combined ratio improved QoQ .	Improving sequentially (volatile historically)
Investment portfolio/yields	Q1: 3.0% increase in net investment income . Q2: +40.8% net investment income YoY on higher reinvestment rates .	+8.1% net investment income to $3.0M; lower equity unrealized gains reduced net investment gains .	Supportive income; equity mark-to-market volatile
Regional trends (ND/SD/NE)	Q1: ND new business growth, strong retention; SD expansion; NE mixed .	Q2: SD/NE favorable weather offsets; ND catastrophe hit .	Q3: ND new business supports Home & Farm; NE saw lower retention/new business .
Ratings/regulatory	May: AM Best downgraded Long-Term ICRs; outlooks stable .	No incremental ratings changes in Q3	Stable post-downgrade
Leadership	Q1: CEO Seth Daggett commentary .	Q3: Cindy Launer appointed CEO; quote on strategy shift .	Leadership transition; focus on underwriting discipline

Management Commentary

Cindy Launer (CEO, Q3): “I…look forward to…delivering outstanding service…Turning to our third quarter results, our Non-Standard Auto segment was again impacted by adverse prior year development. In response, we made the strategic decision to stop writing non-standard auto business in Illinois, Arizona and South Dakota…we believe this shift positions us for stronger underwriting performance and greater stability moving forward.”
Seth Daggett (CEO, Q2): “The second quarter was negatively impacted by the catastrophe event in North Dakota…offset by favorable weather conditions in South Dakota and Nebraska…Although we faced a challenging quarter, including further unfavorable prior year reserve development in Non-Standard Auto, we remain confident in the strength of our core business…” .
Seth Daggett (CEO, Q1): “We are pleased to start off 2025 with another quarter of underwriting profitability…We implemented numerous expanded underwriting and distribution actions throughout North Dakota and South Dakota…focused on returning our Non-Standard Auto segment to profitability.” .

Q&A Highlights

No Q3 earnings call transcript was available; therefore, no Q&A highlights or guidance clarifications could be extracted for this quarter.

Estimates Context

S&P Global consensus estimates for NODK’s Q3 2025 were not available (no entries returned for EPS or revenue, and no estimate counts).*

Metric	Period	Consensus Mean	# of Estimates	Actual
EPS (Primary)	Q3 2025	N/A*	0*	$(0.08) (Basic)
Revenue	Q3 2025	N/A*	0*	$71.9M (Net earned premiums)

Values marked with an asterisk were retrieved from S&P Global.*
Note: S&P also displayed actual revenue data rather than consensus; consensus coverage appears limited for micro-cap insurers.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Underwriting pivot continues: exiting additional non-standard auto geographies aims to curb adverse reserve development and reduce volatility; expect near-term earned premium pressure but potential margin stabilization longer term .
Sequential improvement: combined ratio fell to 109.1% from 125.1% as Q3 lacked Q2’s extraordinary cat event; continued PY reserve development remains the key drag .
Capital allocation optionality: ~$6.3M repurchase capacity could provide downside support and signal confidence if deployed near book value .
Investment income supportive: higher reinvestment rates underpin net investment income; equity marks can swing net gains, adding earnings variability .
Ratings context: AM Best downgrades from May reflect multi-year volatility; stabilization of underwriting and loss costs is critical to improving perceptions and potentially future ratings trajectories .
Watch loss trends: monitor Non-Standard Auto reserve development and frequency/severity in Home & Farm; a sustained reduction in adverse development is the primary earnings lever .
Near-term trading lens: absent consensus estimates or call commentary, the narrative hinges on underwriting actions, catastrophe exposure management, and any repurchase activity—key catalysts for sentiment and valuation re-rating.

NI Holdings, Inc. (NODK)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary