Nomad Foods - Q4 2023

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Greetings and welcome to the Nomad Foods fourth quarter 2023 earnings call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Mr. Amit Sharma, head of investor relations for Nomad Foods. Thank you. You may begin.

Amit Sharma (Head of Investor Relations)

Hello and welcome to Nomad Foods fourth quarter 2023 earnings call. I'm Amit Sharma, head of investor relations, and I'm joined on the call today by Stéfan Descheemaeker, our CEO, and Samy Zekhout, our CFO. By now, everyone should have access to the earnings release for the period ending December 31, 2023. That was published at approximately 6:45 A.M. Eastern Time. The press release and investor presentation are available on Nomad Foods website at www.nomadfoods.com. This call is being webcast, and the replay will be available on the company's website. This conference call will include forward-looking statements that are based on our view of the company's prospects, expectations, and intentions at this time.

Actual results may differ due to risks and uncertainties, which are discussed in our press release, our filings with the SEC, and in our investor relations presentation, which includes cautionary language. We will also discuss non-IFRS financial measures during the call today. These non-IFRS financial measures should not be considered a replacement and should be read together with IFRS results. Users can find the IFRS to non-IFRS reconciliation within our earnings release and in the appendices at the end of the slide presentation available on our website. Please note that certain financial information within this presentation represents adjusted figures for 2022 and 2023.

All adjusted figures have been adjusted for exceptional items, acquisition-related costs, share-based compensation, and related expenses, as well as non-cash FX gains or losses. Unless otherwise noted, comments from here on will refer to these adjusted numbers. With that, I will hand you over to Stéfan.

Stéfan Descheemaeker (CEO)

Thank you, Amit. I would like to begin by offering a few highlights from our solid fourth quarter and full-year results. I would then offer a few comments on our accelerated growth outlook and the health of the frozen categories before handing it over to Samy for detailed review of our quarterly financial results and our initial 2024 guidance. Nomad Foods delivered another quarter of solid top and bottom-line performance. Fourth quarter organic sales increased by 1.9%, our sixth consecutive quarter of positive organic growth, as our volume trends improved sequentially in each month of the quarter. Quarterly and full-year gross margins improved substantially, and we continue to generate strong cash flows, enabling us to initiate a quarterly cash dividend.

I'm proud of our team to enable us to continue our uninterrupted track record of top-tier financial performance and finish 2023 with record-high annual sales and EBITDA. I'm even more excited about our building momentum as the key drivers of our long-term profitable growth begin to accelerate. As the impact of challenging macros recedes and we return to our typical operating cadence, we expect even stronger top- and bottom-line growth in 2024 and for many years to come. Specifically, we expect 2024 organic sales to increase by 3%-4%, including positive volume and share. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to increase by 4%-6% to EUR 556 million-EUR 567 million, and adjusted EPS is expected to be in the range of EUR 1.75-EUR 1.80, which implies 9%-12% growth.

We expect another year of strong cash flow generation with cash flow conversion in the 90%-95% range. With that, let me provide a few highlights on our fourth quarter performance. Fourth quarter net sales increased by 1.4%, as organic growth of 1.9% was modestly offset by unfavorable Forex. Our volume mix declines improved sequentially from the last quarter and moderated to the lowest levels in the third quarter of 2022. Fourth quarter gross margins improved by more than 160 basis points due to disciplined pricing, optimized promotions, and continued focus on productivity. Our full-year gross margin also came in better than expected, even as we absorbed substantial COGS inflation, enabling us to continue to increase A&P investments behind our brands.

Adjusted EBITDA of EUR 117 million and adjusted EPS of EUR 0.32 per share both came in ahead of expectations. We generated nearly EUR 174 million of free cash flow during the quarter and EUR 300 million for the full year, one of our highest, with cash conversion ratio of 109% well above our targeted range. Our long track record of consistently strong cash flows is at the foundation of our effective capital allocation to enhance shareholder value. To that effect, we initiated a quarterly cash dividend of EUR 0.15 per share, a notable milestone for Nomad Foods and a testament to the quality and resilience of our business and our confidence in our ability to generate significant cash flows and a sustainable long-term growth.

At the retail sales level, as reported by NielsenIQ, our value sales for the 12-week period ending December 31 increased by nearly 2%, including sequentially improving volume and market share trends. Our recent year-over-year volume growth and share trends have already turned positive in many key markets, giving us greater confidence in delivering positive volume growth in 2024. The frozen food segment in Europe remains healthy. Underlying consumption in our core categories and key markets continued to grow, with improving volume trends over the last few periods. Even with the unprecedented level of inflation-driven pricing in the last two years, frozen food remains highly relevant for most consumers. Frozen food enjoy high household penetration in our key markets in the mid- to high 80% range.

And even more importantly, household penetration has remained largely stable even with the extraordinary pricing in the last two years. It's not that difficult to see why. Frozen food categories align perfectly with a number of secular consumer trends, including convenience, taste, nutrition, sustainability, and remain highly affordable. For instance, using our value packs and promotion, a family of five can enjoy a meal of fish fingers, waffles, and peas for around $10 in many markets, highlighting the tremendous value proposition of our products offering, a key consideration for consumers in the current environment. We are positioning ourselves to capture a greater share of this growth by increasing our focus in investments behind our biggest and most profitable opportunities.

Our total advertising and promotion spending increased by nearly 30% in the fourth quarter, and a disproportionately large share of these investments were made against our top 20 must-win battles. These high-priority opportunities account for nearly half of our retail sales and even higher bigger share of our gross profits. Our recent trends in many of these opportunities are very encouraging and give me greater confidence in our revised growth plans as we look to 2024. The significant ramp-up in our fourth quarter A&P investments will continue with 2024. Specifically, we launched our master brand campaign to drive greater affinity to our brands in the first quarter, to build an emotional connection to our brands and to remind consumers of the most relevant and loved aspects of their relationship with our iconic brands.

Our messaging will also focus on highlighting the stronger health claims of our brands to emphasize the naturalness and goodness of our products, given the increasing debate around obesity and ultra-processed foods. Along with driving the core, higher A&P will also help reignite our innovation engine. Historically, new products have accounted for nearly 5% of our annual sales, and it fell below that level in 2023. We committed to regaining our innovation momentum and have an exciting pipeline of new products to be launched through the rest of the year. I mentioned two of these innovations last week, Iglo branded Mexican coated fish fillet in Germany and King branded multi-layered premium ice cream for the home occasion in the Adriatics.

We have planned a full spectrum of marketing support and retail activation behind both these innovations, along with our other new products in our pipeline. As expected, the majority of these difficult but necessary pricing discussions with a few of our retail partners, which I mentioned in our last call, were resolved successfully. Retail environment remains dynamic, but we have successfully completed pricing conversations in the majority of our markets, and we remain on track to complete the rest over the next few months. At the same time, we are optimizing our promotion spending and reallocating resources where we see the largest potential impact. As I mentioned in my comments at the CAGNY conference last week, we are investing in our growth capabilities, in our data, in our analytics to position us for accelerated growth in 2024 and beyond.

These investments are meaningfully upgrading our retail execution. We have better insights and a wider, more comprehensive revenue growth management toolkit to maximize our profitable volumes. These strategies are working, and I strongly believe that they position us to capture a greater share of the frozen food growth in our markets. Our increasing investments to drive accelerated growth is underpinned by our productivity agenda, particularly across our supply chain. The resilience and nimbleness of our supply chain during a period of unprecedented volatility is unmatched across the frozen food aisle. But I'm even more proud of the fact that we are accomplishing it while increasing our focus on driving greater efficiencies across our network. We are optimizing our manufacturing and logistics network, reducing complexities, and establishing strategic relationships with key suppliers to reduce supply risk and generate procurement savings.

Our supply chain delivered strong cost savings and higher cash flows in 2023, even as our service levels improved to over 98%. We expect a similar trajectory in 2024. While on the topic of cash flow, as I mentioned earlier, we generated EUR 300 million of free cash in 2023, our second highest annual cash flow ever. Strong cash flows are a foundation of our value-enhancing capital allocation strategies. We bought back more than 6% of our shares outstanding in 2023, initiated a quarterly cash dividend, and adopted a new $500 million share repurchase program, highlighting the strength and flexibility of our balance sheet as we continue to execute a balanced capital deployment strategy intended to maximize shareholder returns. In conclusion, we delivered record-high sales and EBITDA in 2023, with improving margins and strong cash flows.

Our quarterly volume trends improved sequentially, positioning us to deliver positive volume and share growth in 2024. We are increasing our growth investments to unlock the full potential of our attractive frozen categories and iconic brands, positioning us to deliver sustained, attractive growth in 2024 and for many more years to come. I'm highly confident of delivering our revised long-term targets of 3%-4% organic revenue growth, 5%-7% adjusted EBITDA growth, 7%-9% adjusted EPS growth, and 90%-95% cash conversion, which I believe will deliver superior returns for our shareholders. With that, let me hand the call over to Samy to review our fourth quarter results and our 2024 guidance in greater details. Samy.

Samy Zekhout (CFO)

Thank you, Stéfan, and good morning, everyone. I am pleased to present another quarter of solid performance at Nomad Foods. For the fourth quarter, reported net revenues increased by 1.4% to EUR 761 million. Organic sales increased by 1.9%, while unfavorable FX impacted quarterly sales by 0.5%. Our organic sales growth was driven primarily by pricing as we continue to benefit from pricing to cover inflation. Our volume mix was down 5.6% during the quarter, a marked improvement from the third quarter and our lowest volume mix decline since quarter three 2022. Fourth quarter gross profit increased by 7.9% to EUR 208 million, while gross margin increased by over 160 basis points from the year-ago quarter to 27.3% due to better procurement and cost discipline, improving volume trends and contribution from pricing and favorable RGM execution.

Adjusted EBITDA increased by 3.2% to EUR 117 million in the quarter, as higher gross profit was partially offset by higher operating expenses. Our adjusted operating expense increased by 14% from the year-ago quarter due to the step-up A&P investment as well as higher indirect expenses. Adjusted net income declined by 9.4% due to higher interest expense from our last year's refinancing, while adjusted earnings per share of €0.32 declined by only €0.01 from the year-ago quarter, as impact from higher interest costs was partially offset by share buybacks. At current euro-dollar spot rate, our quarter four adjusted EPS was $0.35 per share. For the full year 2023, net sales increased by 3.6% to €3.04 billion, including 4.9% organic sales growth.

Gross margin increased by nearly 50 basis points to 28.2%, while adjusted EBITDA increased by 2% to €535 million. Full year adjusted EPS of €1.61 or $1.74 declined due to higher interest expense from the refinancing of our debt. During 2023, we repurchased more than 11 million shares of our common stock for nearly $185 million under our previous buyback authorization. As Stéfan mentioned, we now have a new $500 million share repurchase authorization. We delivered yet another year of strong cash flow in 2023, with full year adjusted free cash flow of EUR 300 million driven by strong working capital improvement, higher EBITDA, and favorable timing on certain receivables.

Full year and fourth quarter cash flows came in well ahead of our expectation as we continue to be highly focused on effective inventory management, cash collection to improve our working capital performance. Specifically, full year working capital decreased by nearly EUR 155 million, more than offsetting a nearly EUR 40 million increase in cash interest. 2023 CapEx of EUR 82 million increased modestly from last year as we remain highly disciplined on supporting long-term strategic investments. Given the strong Q4 cash performance, full year cash conversion came in at 109%, well ahead of our targeted 90%-95%. Maintaining a high level of cash conversion is paramount to ensuring the strength of our balance sheet and to continue to execute our effective capital allocation to deliver enhanced shareholder returns.

We paid our first quarterly cash dividend of $0.15 per share earlier this week, reinforcing our ability to generate strong, consistent cash flows and in our attractive long-term growth. Turning to our guidance for 2024, we are pleased with our building top-line momentum as we enter 2024. We expect to deliver net revenue growth of 3%-4%, adjusted EBITDA growth of 4%-6%, and adjusted EPS of EUR 1.75-EUR 1.80 per share. We continue to expect strong cash flow with cash conversion in a range of 90%-95% range. Our 3%-4% organic growth in 2024 is expected to be relatively balanced between price and volume mix, including positive volume growth for the full year. Volume trends are already beginning to inflect to positive growth in many of our key markets.

We expect continued sequential improvement in the first half and consolidated volume to turn positive in the second half. We expect our gross margin trends to continue to improve in 2024 as we benefit from improving volumes, greater focus on productivity initiative, and favorable costs. Digging into inflation more specifically, we expect relatively flat inflation for the full year, with lower fish and protein costs offset by headwinds in some other cost buckets, including vegetables. As Stéfan mentioned, we remain committed to investing behind our brands. Overall A&P spending increased by nearly 13% in 2023, and we have planned for an even greater increase in 2024, particularly in the first half as we drive strong volume and share performance in 2024.

At U.S. dollar euro exchange rates as of 17 February, our adjusted EPS guidance translates into $1.89-$1.95 earnings per share, and implies 9%-12% year-over-year growth as we lap impact from higher interest costs in 2023 and continue to benefit from lower share counts. In terms of quarterly cadence, our top-line is likely to be largely in line with historical patterns. However, the second half will account for a disproportionately higher share of our profit and earnings given the timing of cost flow-through due to the balance sheet remeasurements and the timing of our A&P investments, particularly in the first quarter. Absent of any strategic acquisition and given our strong cash flow, we remain committed to returning capital to shareholders through the recently instituted dividend and opportunistic share repurchases.

We have a proven track record of top-tier financial results and are even more excited by the opportunities we have ahead of us. We are confident of delivering attractive growth at or near the top-tier of our food peers in 2024 and for many years to come. I will now turn the call over to the operator for your question. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. At this time, we'll be conducting a question and answer session. If you'd like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you'd like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. In the interest of time, we ask that you each keep to one question and one follow-up. Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of John Baumgartner with Mizuho Securities. Please proceed with your question.

John Baumgartner (Managing Director)

Good morning. Good morning. Thanks for the question. Samy, I wanted to dig in. Good morning. I wanted to dig into Q4 gross margin, which I think was, you know, a bit better than expected. I understand you've got, you know, sourcing, pricing, inflation sort of matching better relative to last couple of quarters. Can you walk through what drove that upside and how much of that was underlying cost efficiencies coming through? How much of it was, you know, cost inflation moderation relative to that pricing?

Samy Zekhout (CFO)

Yeah. Thank you, John. Actually, effectively, we had a good performance in our gross margin of nearly 160 basis points from a quarter year ago. I would say the main driver were, frankly, pretty much the same. I mean, even though the spread was changed when you look at effectively the spread beginning of the year end of the year because effectively we saw the pricing impact starting to effectively fade down as we had prior pricing in the base. So a lot of it was coming from good discipline and better procurement. So we clearly continued to benefit from the fact that there were some, clearly stepped up, I mean, improvements in that area. We had a higher focus as well overall on productivity and efficiency. And, at that, at that same moment, we had improving volume trend.

If you recall, we had implemented at the same time a sharpened RGM strategy with to define effectively some promotional intervention. But also, effectively, there were some specific stepped up, if you want, in advertising that really boosted the volume, which effectively reduced the impact that we had versus year ago. So the volume element had a component, I mean, into that progress.

John Baumgartner (Managing Director)

Okay. Thanks for that. You know, as a follow-up, looking at the volume mix, I think that came in a little bit lighter than we were looking for in the quarter. I think you mentioned some one-time drags there. You know, bigger picture, can you walk through the non-measured channels, what we can't see in Nielsen, you know, what you're seeing in the Nordics, what you're seeing in the Adriatic, and how that sort of evolves in 2024? Thank you.

Samy Zekhout (CFO)

Well, I think to your point, John, actually, you know, EPOS, Nielsen is only capturing part of our businesses. So it doesn't include, to your point, Nordics, Swiss, Adriatic, Ireland. And it doesn't include some brands, by the way, like own brands. And it doesn't include neither, you know, for example, you know, food service. And we have, as you know, a bit of private label. So when you see, let's say, quarter four in value, but value and volume are getting very close to each other now, actually, what you see is, well, Nordics hasn't made any change to the whole picture. So it's very much in line with the rest of our numbers. Adriatic was a weather help, definitely. So, we're doing fine.

You may remember, Adriatic in Q4 is mostly frozen food as opposed to ice cream. And it was a business that was probably less strong than ice cream, but we're making a lot of progress. And so that's basically the main differences. Not so, the Adriatic is a plus, I would put it that way. And then in Q4, we also have a lot of, let's say, movement between sell-in and sell-out. So most of the time, you know, sell-in at the end of the year is lower than sell-out. And then on top of that, you know, you have a food service, for example, did contribute nicely to us.

So overall, let's say, interestingly enough, when we see quarter four, I think between or let's say Nielsen numbers and the final numbers in terms of sell-in, they're quite similar. But for the series of delta being acquisitions, sell-in, and food service. And if you want to have, you know, this, let's say, on a monthly basis, same thing in January, but the other way around to some extent.

Stéfan Descheemaeker (CEO)

John, remember, it's about two-thirds of our business that's covered in Nielsen. So there is always a little bit of a dislocation, but I think directionally, it's the right way to look at it.

John Baumgartner (Managing Director)

Thanks, everyone.

Samy Zekhout (CFO)

Thank you, John.

Stéfan Descheemaeker (CEO)

Thank you, John.

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Stephen Powers with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.

Steve Powers (Managing Director)

Hey. Good morning, everybody. Thank you. You know, there's a quote in the press release and sort of the tone of your prepared remarks talks about playing offense in 2024. And I guess maybe just a little bit more detail, if you could, on the cadence of spending, as you do that, and then also how quickly you expect to see returns on that spending, maybe in terms of the pacing of volume versus price as we go through the year. Any perspective on that would be great.

Stéfan Descheemaeker (CEO)

Well, to your point, I think we already started, by the way. We started end of Q3. We really started to re-increase our A&P. Q4 was really a double-digit in growth. And we have all the intent to keep going that way, in the course of this year, even faster. So overall, by the way, we think that A&P is going to go even faster than our sales, which makes total sense. And well, interestingly enough, you know, with it was absolutely crucial for us to be able to keep our gross margin so that we would be able to invest to reinvest behind the brands. So that's starting together with other things because, again, A&P is one component, Steve, but we have more and more for all our must-win battles.

We have an integrated view, what we call our flywheel, which really is basically our A&P. It's also, obviously, revenue growth management. So where do we need to invest in pricing or in promotion? Where, how do we need to do this? Innovation also, pipeline is starting to be better after two years, which were probably a bit more subdued. So we see really, we expect to see the gradual improvement turning to positive volume growth by second half of the year. But it's not going to be linear, guys. It's going to be steady, but it's not going to be linear. But overall, what we see is we are very confident that the growth trajectory is there to stay. But again, combination of a good category too very good category.

We're also lapping, obviously, us very strong pricing and then all our own initiatives together with our brands.

Steve Powers (Managing Director)

Very good. Yeah. Makes perfect sense. Samy, you know, you talked about, you know, openness to M&A, but at the same time, to the extent that M&A doesn't present itself, you know, you know, continue leaning towards cash return to shareholders. Is there a way to think about, you know, the parameters around that in terms of, you know, how much dry powder, so to speak, you want to preserve versus, you know, how much is too much and what's the trigger to cash return to shareholders? Is there a level of cash on the balance sheet that is excessive? Is there, you know, a leverage ratio that's too low? How do we think about the balance of kind of waiting for the opportune M&A opportunity to present itself versus being proactive in capital return?

Samy Zekhout (CFO)

Yeah. I think I mean, we were really guided, Steve, I mean, through driving shareholder return, I mean, from that perspective. And we've been using, frankly, fairly actively, I mean, a good arsenal of a list of variables. I mean, they're from a capital allocation standpoint, I mean, we focused, I mean, historically on M&A. We've effectively moved forward on buyback as you have seen us doing it last year. We are institutionalizing now a dividend. And we are clearly looking at all of these variables together. And to be fair, now that we have, and to come back onto your first question, that we are activating, effectively, a number of the levers that we know within our algorithm are contributing to stronger growth, balance between volume and price, I mean, that's going to enable us to continue to fuel further cash.

Pending effectively a proper balance between buyback, the dividend, we will be effectively looking at opportunity in terms of in terms of M&A for sure. I mean, at this very stage, what we would want to do is to make sure that we maintain our leverage within the band, the operating band, which you have mentioned, I mean, during the CAGNI presentation, which is our target range is between 2.5x and 3.5x. Within that, we will try to effectively use our cash to make the maximum return from that perspective. So M&A is still on the map, I want to be very clear, but we have clearly opportunities, I mean, in the area of buyback. We as well, I mean, have initiated the dividend there.

Stéfan Descheemaeker (CEO)

Well, to just complementing one or two points to Samy, everything, obviously, nothing would be possible without, you know, our free cash flow, which is extremely strong, as you know. So that gives us the whole thing, gives us all the opportunities that are available. And quite frankly, when you see the different opportunities, you know, between dividend, buyback, I think we've been very disciplined at that. And then M&A, plus integration, quite frankly, it's also something where all our acquisitions have been very successful. So we have all the spectrum of, what is available, but based on very, very strong cash flow.

Steve Powers (Managing Director)

Very good. Thank you so much.

Samy Zekhout (CFO)

Thank you, Steve.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Rob Dickerson with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.

Stéfan Descheemaeker (CEO)

Good morning, Rob.

Rob Dickerson (Managing Director)

Great. Thanks.

Stéfan Descheemaeker (CEO)

Morning.

Rob Dickerson (Managing Director)

Good morning. Hello. You know, look, we touched on this a little bit last week at CAGNI, which was a great presentation. I think there was a lot in there. It also seems like there's kind of a lot of kind of ongoing and forthcoming change occurring at Nomad kind of relative to history, right? It almost seems like, you know, it's time to step into the next phase kind of with respect to productivity and then the reinvestment cycle. But I just wanted to kind of give you another, you know, opportunity to kind of talk about, you know, that, like, your overall conviction on that top-line growth target, because the 3%-4%, frankly, you know, is not kind of what we would consider, like, a normalized category growth target relative to history.

I think, you know, historically, you've spoken kind of more to low single digit or two-three. So it clearly seems as if there's a lot more confidence and conviction for a little bit faster growth at Nomad as we think forward just probably over the next five years. And that's all I have. Thanks so much.

Stéfan Descheemaeker (CEO)

Thank you, Rob. And you're right, by the way. I think, you know, it's a slightly different. I'll go to start with the top line. I think it's based on the series of elements. First is little by little, we see that this category, which is a great category, frozen food is really starting to develop. I think people more and more can see that, you know, the category as such is healthy. It's convenient. It's also sustainable. It's nutritious. So you have it ticks all the boxes. And quite frankly, people are starting to see this. So that helps a lot. That's the first piece. The second piece is, well, you know, after having two years of, let's say, a lot of pricing and also with volume impact, we can see, obviously, that we're in a position to recoup part of the lost volumes.

We will also be very selective. We don't want to regain all the volumes. Quite frankly, that's why we have this concept of must-win battle that you're well aware of, which has the best categories with the best margin. So we're going to be selective from that standpoint on top of increasing the algorithm, to your point. And the third piece is, yes, we're increasing our A&P back to normal first. And then last but not least, you know, our pipeline of innovation last two years was a bit subdued. A lot of reasons, you know, people were focused on cost of living. Obviously, we were also trying to really tackle the whole. It was more, you know, defensive.

Now, definitely for the next years, and you know that innovation takes more time, but we have the ambition to really create a best-in-class pipeline of new products as product as category leader. That's something probably we didn't do enough in the past and that we're going to do really absolutely with an obsession in the coming years. That's a combination of these elements. By definition, there will be pluses and minuses, Rob, but that's the reason why we think, you know, we can increase our. I'll go to your point from 2% to 3% by 1%. Let's make it clear.

Samy Zekhout (CFO)

Rob, if I may, there's one thing I'd like to emphasize, that we talked last week was the fact that, the big difference as well is, and I think Stéfan used the word, it is the integrated flywheel. We are really activating most of the part of the flywheel together in a synchronized way with a mindset of driving better return. A&P is one. Proper price level is another one with RGM and promo. At the same time, we're increasing our presence and our strategy in-store. The combination of all of that is clearly working. And it's worked in Q4. So we have evidence, and it shows in the improvement that we have seen in Q4. And that's exactly what we're going to continue with the stepped-up investments we're making.

So this element of focus, integration, and making sure that we're activating all of the parts of the flywheel together, which will enable us together with productivity that is now, frankly, implemented across the board, enable us to deliver the top line that's going to effectively flow through into a bottom line, and a strong EPS growth moving forward.

Rob Dickerson (Managing Director)

All right. Super. Thank you both. I really appreciate it.

Stéfan Descheemaeker (CEO)

Thank you, Rob. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. As a reminder, if you'd like to join the question queue, please press star one on your telephone keypad. Our next question comes from the line of Jon Tanwanteng with CJS Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Jon Tanwanteng (Managing Director)

Hi. Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions and congrats on the nice improvements you're seeing there. I was wondering if you could first address the competitive environment and how you see that evolve in the last quarter and through Q1. Are you seeing any response to your new strategy at all, either from branded or private label competition? And, have you seen the price gap continue to close with the private label side?

Stéfan Descheemaeker (CEO)

I think it's a great question, John. I think the company environment has remained about the same. I think we're very pleased to have closed most of the negotiations with the customers, which was, as you know, a bit of a drag in Q4. So that's helping a lot. And it's going to help us, you know, gradually, in some of our countries. So the private label price gap is still a bit wider than historical level, which is normal. So we're not surprised by that. And that's why, you know, instead of going down, let's say, drastically, you know, we're more in terms of we're going more to surgical promotion intervention. We've learned a lot with our revenue growth management. We've invested a lot.

And quite frankly, the level of science that we've put together is a real real plus. We mentioned, you know, an example last week in Italy in Italy in fish. And it's a great example, and we see the results. So it's a it's a great investment. So the the price gaps remain important, but I think it goes just beyond that managing this gap. So we really focus now on highlighting why our brand is of a premium. So we haven't done that enough in the last couple of years. We know that. And now we're going to we're ramping up our A&P spend, which is a big thing, obviously, something that is a great answer to the private label and more long-term, obviously, the innovation, which is what's expected from a from a from a from a category leader like us.

Jon Tanwanteng (Managing Director)

Got it. Thank you. And then I don't know if you addressed this earlier. I apologize if I missed it, but did you mention how much capital allocation is built into your EPS guidance for the year and what the balance is weighted more towards it if it is included?

Stéfan Descheemaeker (CEO)

No, we have not mentioned any of that. I think we just provided the guidance as mentioned, I mean, in the guidance.

Samy Zekhout (CFO)

Yeah, John, we spent $82 million in 2023 on our CapEx.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question is a follow-up from the line of John Baumgartner with Mizuho Securities. Please proceed with your question.

John Baumgartner (Managing Director)

Hey, good morning. Thanks for the follow-up. Just wanted to ask a bigger picture question. Stéfan, at CAGNY, you mentioned kind of whittling down some of your focus brands or geographies in the must-win Battles relative to a couple of years ago. I'm curious, what sort of went into that? How did you decide how to whittle? Is it certain categories, certain brands, or have returns changed over the last couple of years? I'm curious to hear more about that. Then, related, you also talked about geographic expansions and cross-selling opportunities in markets where the brands are live but not just in all the categories. I'm curious, as you pursue more of that cross-selling going forward, how do we think about the incremental resource investment required?

Because these aren't new brands, and I imagine you already have leverage with local sales force and distribution. Thank you.

Stéfan Descheemaeker (CEO)

Okay. Let's try to be well, I'll spend a bit more time on that one because I you know, it's a kind of topic I love, which is the must-win battles. You know, you remember, John, it's we started in 2016 where we came to the conclusion that the company was not focused at all. And it was absolutely time to focus behind the key categories per country. And so because we didn't necessarily have all the money to go behind 100% of our sales. And by the way, strategy is about re-deciding where you're going to focus you're going to allocate your resources. It's exactly what we did with the must-win battles.

And we decided to focus our A&P or innovation money or in-store activation, you know, our flywheel, actually, behind two-thirds of our categories based on basically growth potential, gross margin, and market share, to make it simple. And as a result, you know, I think these two-thirds received, obviously, almost everything. And unsurprisingly, it grew much faster than the rest, something like around 5%. The rest went to 0 and sometimes even declined, which is absolutely acceptable. You know, we like the idea that we were very selective. Unsurprisingly, after a few years, you know, these two-thirds became 90%. And so on and then we're back to square one, which is basically, where are we going to reallocate our money?

That's why we decided, okay, now we're going to be even more selective behind the best and brightest must-win battles. And so we've decided to then de-emphasize around 25% of our must-win battles to really focus on the best and brightest, especially in terms of gross margin and then gross profit gross profit potential. So that's what we're doing right now. Just as for information, 20% of our must-win battles represent around 50% of our sales and much more in terms and more in terms of gross profit. And there's 20% out of around 80%. So that gives you a bit of the idea what we're doing right now. So it's a bit, you know, very very we remain very logical and consequent with what we did in the past, but again, with more resource.

At the same time, as you know, we're investing more A&P. So you can imagine, these brands are really going to receive more money because first, we're more selective. And on top of that, you know, we're increasing A&P. So that's a big boost for these categories. The second piece about our concept of pollination, which is basically we have a you know, something which is unique in frozen food. We have a unique assortment when you think about all the different range of products we have across all different countries, 22 countries in Europe. And at the same time, we're also unique to be present in all these countries. So this combination allows us to see, okay, fine, for example, we have a fantastic product of, let's say, fish and chips in the UK.

We think and obviously, consumers prove this. We think it can work in France. So with very little money, we started something like five-six years ago, and it has moved from EUR 5 million to EUR 40 million in six years, quite frankly, with very little A&P, which shows, you know, the strength of the product, obviously, presented the right way. So that's a best example of what the thing we can do. And there are many more. So just focusing on this example of fish and chips, we're going to do it in Switzerland. We're going to do it in Adriatics because people, it's demonstrated that the concept can work.

It's definitely what I would qualify some sort of, let's say, very low-risk innovation when you think about it because we're taking a product that exists in a country that is very very successful, and we're testing with the other countries adjacent or not, and we can move. So you remove of the innovation process, which unavoidably comes with, let's say, a certain level of failure, unavoidable. It's normal. I think we're substantially reducing this failure rate with this approach. As we said, think about it, fantastic assortment and an amazing number of countries. And then you can see what the extent of this lift and shift can represent for us.

John Baumgartner (Managing Director)

All right. Thanks, Stéfan.

Stéfan Descheemaeker (CEO)

Thank you, John.

Samy Zekhout (CFO)

Thank you, John.

Stéfan Descheemaeker (CEO)

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our question and answer session. I'll turn the floor back to Mr. Descheemaeker for any final comments.

Thank you very much, Operator. So thank you for your participation on today's call. 2023 was a good year. I'm even more pleased with our good momentum as we enter 2024. Nomad Foods team has shown incredible nimbleness and agility in the last 2-3 years, and that I believe that we are now well prepared to deliver accelerated growth. Our revised long-term growth algo puts us amongst the top tier of our food peers, which, combined with our very attractive valuation, positions us to deliver superior returns for our shareholders. Thank you very much, Operator.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.