Q4 2023 Earnings Summary
- Introduction of a freemium model is expected to drive significant user growth with minimal marginal costs, expanding Nerdy's market reach and creating a larger funnel for upselling to premium live tutoring services. The freemium offerings include products with low or no marginal cost, enabling efficient acquisition of new learners. Additionally, the freemium sales are expected to occur through ecommerce, providing operating leverage and increasing efficiency over time.
- Dramatically expanding pipeline in the institutional business, with the Varsity Tutors for Schools segment poised for significant growth. Improvements in product offerings, including the launch of three new subscription products (Teacher Assigned, District Assigned, and Parent Assigned), position Nerdy to capture opportunities in the emerging multibillion-dollar K-12 tutoring industry. The company has also nearly doubled the number of school district relationships, enhancing its reach and potential for revenue growth.
- Strong growth in learning memberships, with active members expected to increase to 45,500 by end of Q1 2024 and to 56,000 by end of 2024, excluding potential conversions from the freemium offering. The company reports continued strength in new customer growth, up 35% year-over-year in the fourth quarter, and feels confident about retention and engagement levels, leading to lifetime value (LTV) extension. Increased non-tutoring engagement also contributes to higher retention and value derived from memberships.
- The introduction of the freemium model may lead to cannibalization of existing revenues, as customers who were paying for certain products might switch to free offerings, potentially impacting revenue growth.
- The company has stopped providing retention metrics for learning memberships, which could suggest concerns about customer retention or cohort performance. Management noted they removed the retention data that was historically provided.
- Uncertainty surrounding the impact of the upcoming ESSER III funding deadline on Varsity Tutors for Schools growth, as management indicates it's too early to tell how the funding will come in, potentially affecting future institutional revenues.
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Freemium Model Financial Implications
Q: How will the freemium model impact financials?
A: Management explained that they've been methodically testing the freemium model and will continue throughout 2024. They see a big opportunity to leverage their non-tutoring products, many of which competitors charge large sums for, by offering them at no or low cost to introduce consumers to their ecosystem and monetize through live tutoring, their "superpower". They expect this strategy to build mass market appeal and upsell users to higher-priced plans over time. -
Growth Drivers and ESSER III Funding
Q: What are the growth drivers into 2024 with ESSER III deadline?
A: Management expects continued scaling of learning memberships and LTV extension on the consumer side. For Varsity Tutors for Schools, total bookings were up 50% and revenue up 77% in 2023. They see positive signals from new products—District Assigned, Teacher Assigned, and Parent Assigned—and plan to expand their go-to-market sales team. Though it's early to tell how ESSER III funds will impact demand, they believe there's a significant opportunity to capture a fair share and enter multi-year contracts as funds must be contracted by September 2024 but can be utilized over the next four years. -
Learning Memberships Below Expectations
Q: Why did Q4 learning members miss expectations?
A: Management stated that active learning members came in largely in line with expectations, with new customer growth up 35% year-over-year in Q4. They expect 45,500 active members by the end of Q1 and 56,000 by year-end 2024. These numbers exclude potential conversions from freemium to paid customers, which they are optimistic about but find too early to forecast. -
Freemium Model Costs and Cannibalization
Q: Will freemium cannibalize revenue or increase costs?
A: Management believes the ancillary products in the freemium model have low to no marginal cost. Costs are related to testing and rolling out self-service tools, reflected in lower ARPM starting points in their Q1 guidance, but expect accelerating revenue growth and feel good about the economics being self-funding or even margin accretive over the year. They do not expect freemium to cannibalize existing revenues, as the free resources supplement rather than replace high-dosage tutoring, serving as an on-ramp for paid services. -
Institutional Bookings Outlook
Q: How does the 2024 pipeline for institutional bookings look?
A: The pipeline is dramatically bigger than last year, thanks to product improvements and an emergent multi-billion dollar K-12 tutoring industry. They've launched three subscription products—Teacher Assigned, District Assigned, and Parent Assigned—allowing them to service all common ways schools administer tutoring. This has enabled them to build relationships at scale and positions them for a significant year ahead. -
Freemium Conversion Strategy
Q: What is the strategy to upsell freemium users?
A: Management has been building towards this for years, combining live video tutoring, small group classes, live stream capabilities (up to 50,000 people in a class at almost no marginal cost), diagnostic testing, self-study videos, and AI tutor into compelling offerings. Converging their consumer and institutional platforms allowed them to build products that resonate and monetize effectively. Early signals are good, and they expect freemium to drive marketplace awareness, unlock ecommerce, and potentially introduce Nerdy to millions of students this year. -
Retention of Learning Memberships
Q: Any updates on retention of maturing cohorts?
A: Management feels good about the retention and engagement of learning memberships as cohorts continue to show LTV extension. While they removed some historical data from the shareholder letter, they emphasize that learning memberships demonstrate superior economic profiles over their legacy package model. They also note year-over-year improvement in non-tutoring engagement, which is important for retention. -
Ecommerce Opportunity
Q: How will you unlock the ecommerce opportunity?
A: While they've had ecommerce capabilities, management expects the majority, if not the entirety of freemium sales to occur through ecommerce, providing operating leverage on sales and marketing. This self-service motion will make them more efficient over time without commensurate increases in cost as they scale. -
Improved Win Rates with New Products
Q: Have new products improved win rates with schools?
A: Yes, management has seen higher win rates with the introduction of Teacher Assigned, District Assigned, and Parent Assigned products. Schools are purchasing multiple products for different parts of their districts, making conversations simpler and building trust more efficiently. -
Pricing and Product Tests
Q: What products are you bundling and who are you targeting?
A: Management tested various options in Q4, including 4-hour and 8-hour packages within their learning memberships, and introduced different pricing tiers with lower hours and price points. Some SKUs are resonating, attracting users by offering products at no cost that competitors charge large sums for, creating a gravitational pull toward their platform. They are encouraged by initial monetization and believe it could be a significant growth driver in the future.