National Storage Affiliates Trust - Q4 2023

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Welcome to National Storage Affiliates' fourth quarter 2023 conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, George Hoglund, Vice President of Investor Relations for National Storage Affiliates. Thank you, Mr. Hoglund. You may begin.

George Hoglund (VP of Investor Relations)

We'd like to thank you for joining us today for the fourth quarter 2023 earnings conference call of National Storage Affiliates Trust. On the line with me here today are NSA's President and CEO, Dave Cramer, and CFO, Brandon Togashi. Following prepared remarks, management will accept questions from registered financial analysts. Please limit your questions to one question and one follow-up, and then return to the queue if you have more questions. In addition to the press release distributed yesterday afternoon, we furnished our supplemental package with additional detail on our results, which may be found in the Investor Relations section on our website at nationalstorageaffiliates.com. On today's call, management's prepared remarks and answers to your questions may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties and represent management's estimates as of today, February 29, 2024.

The company assumes no obligation to revise or update any forward-looking statement because of changing market conditions or other circumstances after the date of this conference call. The company cautions that actual results may differ materially from those projected in any forward-looking statement. For additional details concerning our forward-looking statements, please refer to our public filings with the SEC. We also encourage listeners to review the definitions and reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures such as FFO, core FFO, and net operating income contained in the supplemental information package available in the Investor Relations section on our website and in our SEC filings. I will now turn the call over to Dave.

Dave Cramer (President and CEO)

Thanks, George. And thanks, everyone, for joining our call today. Fourth quarter capped off a busy year here at NSA. We made significant progress in our people, process, and platform initiatives. I'm very pleased with all that we've accomplished in 2023 to strategically position us for the next phase of growth. On the people front, we made a handful of key moves to enhance our team, including hiring Will Cohen, who joined NSA in June as Chief Strategy Officer. Will's hiring is notable as he is leading our portfolio optimization plan, which includes asset sales and joint venture transactions. And as detailed in our release, we've been busy. We invested in additional talent in many areas, including our data science and customer acquisitions teams. Teams focus on enhancing our processes through utilization of artificial intelligence and machine learning in our revenue management models.

This has improved our customer rate decisions and elevated our intelligence in paid marketing and front-end pricing models. We also invested in new and upgraded platforms in 2023, including a new property management system, data warehouse, and customer web platform. These upgrades position us to have enhanced intelligence, a better customer experience, increased conversion rates, and facilitate more sophisticated revenue management and marketing strategies. Needless to say, I'm very proud of what our team accomplished in 2023 and that they worked diligently to position NSA to deliver enhanced growth over the long term. Now turning to operations for the quarter. There were several puts and takes in the fourth quarter, but on the whole, the quarter played out modestly better than our expectations. Teams focused on balancing rate and occupancy to maximize revenue, but we remained focused on expense control. The quarter remained challenging on an asking rate front.

Competition for new customers remains high, especially in markets where we also have supply pressures. Our improvements in team and technology are certainly aiding us in navigating the challenging environment. Our existing customer base remains healthy, with length of stay above historical averages. Continued ability to implement ECRIs is allowing stability and achieved rate while we wait for demand conditions to improve. Keep in mind that the seasonal drop in rates and occupancy tends to occur in the first couple of months of the year, and we're seeing evidence that February likely ends up being the bottom. Lastly, looking at our different markets, the Sun Belt is currently facing demand challenges due to muted housing markets and new supply, with MSAs like Phoenix, Sarasota, and Las Vegas all performing below portfolio average.

Longer term, we remain very confident in the growth prospects of our Sun Belt markets due to the broader population and migration trends. Now turning to our portfolio optimization strategies, we had a very busy fourth quarter and a start to the new year, including the following. First, we sold a portfolio of 71 properties to a large private storage operator for a gross price of $540 million. The sales straddled year-end, with half of the portfolio closing in December and all but one of the remaining properties closed in February. The portfolio consisted of assets that were generally smaller than our portfolio average, with lower margins and were geographically less concentrated. The assets and markets also generally had lower growth prospects than our portfolio. As such, the sale enhanced operational efficiencies, improved our long-term growth prospects, and generated capital for our balance sheet initiatives.

Second, we contributed 56 assets, totaling almost $350 million, to a newly formed joint venture in February with one of our existing JV partners. We chose these properties because they had revenue-enhancing opportunities that we felt were best unlocked off balance sheet in a joint venture structure. We've retained a 25% interest in this JV and the right of first offer on the assets. These are assets and markets that we want to own long term, so we maintain the flexibility to bring these assets back on balance sheet in the future. Third, we also formed a new joint venture with an existing partner. The JV has $400 million of total capital commitments, with a maximum allowed leverage of up to 60%, which implies up to $1 billion of buying power.

This JV provides additional growth capital to take advantage of acquisition opportunities that we think will start to materialize in 2024 and into 2025. Last, we raised $250 million of capital through a debt private placement. By completing these activities, we were able to repay our entire revolver balance and eliminate all of our exposure to floating rate debt. We also bought back $27 million of common shares in the fourth quarter and an additional $93 million year-to-date. We've delivered on what we've been messaging over the past few quarters. The net impact of these transactions are reduced risk, better portfolio concentration and quality, improved operational efficiencies, reduced share count to enhance FFO growth going forward, and the generation of investment capital and dry powder for future acquisitions. In short, we've strategically and significantly improved our balance sheet position on enhancing our growth prospects over the long term.

Now I'll turn the call over to Brandon to discuss our financial results.

Brandon Togashi (EVP and CFO)

Thank you, Dave. Yesterday afternoon, we reported Core FFO per share of $0.68 for the fourth quarter of 2023 and $2.69 for the full year, at the high end of the guidance range we revised in the middle of last year, driven by same-store NOI growth coming in higher than the guidance midpoint. These Core FFO per share amounts represent a decrease of approximately 4% over the prior year period, driven primarily by an increase in interest expense which overshadows same-store performance in NOI from acquisitions, partially offset by a reduction in weighted average shares outstanding attributable to our share buyback program. For the quarter, revenue growth was flat on a same-store basis, driven by growth in rent revenue per square feet of 3.6%, offset by a 380 basis point year-over-year decline in average occupancy during the quarter.

Occupancy ended the quarter at 86%, down 410 basis points year-over-year, while January occupancy finished 390 basis points below last year. Expense growth was 4.8% in the fourth quarter and 4.7% for the full year. Similar to the past couple of quarters, the main drivers of growth were property tax, marketing, and insurance, partially offset by payroll efficiencies that resulted in lower spend versus the prior year period. Marketing expenses remain elevated due to increased competition for customers and a tough comp, while insurance expense growth will continue to be at this high level until our policy renewal coming up April 1st. As Dave mentioned earlier, it was a busy quarter and start to 2024 on the asset sales and joint venture front. We also continued to evaluate acquisition opportunities and purchased two assets during the quarter, totaling $25 million.

One of these assets was from our captive pipeline, and the other asset was sourced off-market by one of our PROs utilizing their local relationships in the industry. This brought our full-year acquisition activity to 20 properties, totaling $230 million, all through our captive pipeline or off-market channels. Looking at the portfolio sale and JV contribution that Dave discussed, our net proceeds from these transactions were approximately $835 million, which we've used to repay our revolver in full, repay $130 million of Term Loan B that matures in July, and to buy back approximately $120 million of common shares since our last earnings call.

These transactions have allowed us to significantly enhance our strategic capital position as of today by eliminating all floating rate debt exposure, freeing up all of the capacity on our revolver, sourcing additional growth capital through the formation of a new joint venture, and reducing our share count due to our discounted valuation, which will create greater FFO per share growth over time. Needless to say, we have positioned ourselves to take advantage of opportunities as they arise. Turning to the balance sheet, I won't summarize all the details of our debt private placement or share buyback activity, the specifics of which you can see in our disclosures. But I will highlight that at quarter end, our leverage was 6.1 times net debt to EBITDA, and pro forma with the asset sales and debt repayments, our leverage at year-end would have been 5.7 times.

Now, moving on to 2024 guidance, which we introduced yesterday. The operating environment remains very competitive to start the year, which is weighing on rental rates and occupancy. Uncertainty remains regarding interest rates, their impact on the housing market, and in turn the spring leasing season. We've thus factored a wide range of scenarios into our full-year guidance assumptions, which are detailed in the earnings release. The midpoints of key items of our guidance are as follows: same-store revenue growth of -2%, same-store operating expense growth of 4%, same-store NOI growth of -4%, acquisition volume of $200 million, and Core FFO per share of $2.48. The high end of our guidance range assumes a return toward typical seasonality, fueled in part by a normalization of the housing market. The low end incorporates continued downward pressure on rate and occupancy due to muted customer demand.

The midpoint assumes a modest level of seasonality, with occupancy remaining relatively flat throughout the year. While our guidance reflects a wide range of outcomes, at some point the pent-up demand for home purchases will be unlocked, which combined with an improving supply outlook creates a healthy backdrop for self-storage fundamentals. Thanks again for joining our call today. Let's now turn it back to the operator to take your questions. Operator?

Operator (participant)

Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. Our first question is from Todd Thomas with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please proceed.

Todd Thomas (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Hi. Thank you. A few questions, first, I guess, you know, on the progress you've made with the portfolio optimization process. Dave, you commented that you've made significant progress on toward the company's strategic initiative. So, you know, first, I guess, is there more to do beyond what has been announced, as we think about, you know, moving forward from here? And then, can you also talk about the implied pricing for the portfolio sale and the joint venture contributions?

Dave Cramer (President and CEO)

Yeah, sure, Todd. Thanks for joining today. You know, I, I think the majority of the heavy lifting, as you think about positioning ourselves from, you know, the sale of assets and, and the formation of JVs, puts us in a place where we can now grow. Our balance sheet is well positioned to take advantage of opportunities that we think are going to come towards the back half of this year and, and into 2025. And so what we set out to do last August, the majority of that heavy lifting is done, and the team worked extremely hard, really, through the back half of last year, through to part of this year. And I'm, I'm very, very proud of the accomplishments that they've made.

From that aspect, you know, if you think about additional pruning of the portfolio, it'll be on a more selective basis, not nearly at the magnitude that we just went through. From that piece of it, you know, I would tell you on the two sales or, or the sale. Let's talk about the sale of the portfolio first, the 71 assets. You know, the, the cap rate on that was right at a 6 cap on those assets. You know, it was 71 assets. We really studied our portfolio top to bottom and asked ourselves, where could we find better places to recycle that capital? And that had a lot of things around that piece of it.

So if you think about the 71 properties, if you broke it down, it was in 14 states, really, through the Midwest, the Southeast, a little bit, you know, was the primary pieces of that. If you think about it, over 80% of the markets had two assets or less. And then if you think from that aspect, we had probably two major mar or two bigger markets we exited, which was St. Louis and Augusta. And so as we looked at where we could, you know, find operational efficiencies, where we could really take our portfolio and take that capital and redeploy it in a better position long term for growth, I again, I think we did a really good job just combing through the portfolio at a time where we weren't having a lot of external growth.

The team did a really good job executing the strategy around that sale of asset. The JV, a little different scenario there. Those are assets that we do want to own long term, but we thought there were some abilities to drive additional revenue through some revenue-enhancing projects on those facilities. And so we did team up with an existing JV partner, and we spun those into a JV to, one, unlock some capital for us to use, more effectively in the future, but also to put some dollars into those assets that will improve performance and improve overall market position with those properties and allow us to come back at a point in time and buy those assets back into our portfolio. So I think both those strategies executed very well. Timing was good for us.

Both of the participants, the buyer of the assets on the sale, did a great job working with us. They were a great partner working through the transition of that. We're very appreciative of that. And then our existing JV partner, obviously, good relationship there and looking forward to that future.

Todd Thomas (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Okay.

Dave Cramer (President and CEO)

The JV assets, Todd. I'm sorry. The JV portfolio was a low six. Sorry. I left that out from a cap rate.

Todd Thomas (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Got it. That's helpful. And then, you know, for the two joint ventures, can you just talk about what the fee structure will be like, and can you discuss, you know, what the tenant reinsurance income, you know, sort of, arrangement will look like between NSA and the joint venture partners?

Dave Cramer (President and CEO)

Yeah. I probably won't get a lot of detail there. I'd say they're very similar to previous JVs that we've had set up in structure. And so, you know, similar, you know, same partner that we've used in the past. So the JV structures themselves are very similar in their design and their makeup. And so that would be around, you know, sharing of tenant insurance and fee structures that we've had with previous JVs. But I'm just not going to get into a lot of the details there.

Todd Thomas (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. All right. Thank you.

Dave Cramer (President and CEO)

Thank you, Todd. Appreciate you joining.

Operator (participant)

Our next question is from Spenser Allaway with Green Street Capital. Please proceed.

Spenser Allaway (Senior Analyst)

Thank you. Just to make sure I understood your comments correctly, the 56 assets that were selected for the JV, I think you mentioned they have revenue-enhancing opportunities that would best be achieved in the JV structure. But if you guys are, you know, managing those and operating those assets, it, it doesn't seem like that's an operational play. Can you just talk about what those revenue-enhancing opportunities are, and is there something to be done on the CapEx front?

Dave Cramer (President and CEO)

Yeah. I, I think you're touching on it, Spencer. And, and thanks, thanks for joining today. We certainly, there's we've put significant CapEx dollars in the front end of that JV to go in and improve the properties, unit, unit reconfigurations, the way we look at the properties from, you know, street appeal and a few things like that. And so, there was a, an amount of dollars that was put up front for upfront capital to, you know, be deployed really in, in zero-12 months and really work hard on getting, the properties improved within their competitor sets. And so that's really what that piece of that unlocking of that revenue-enhancing looks like.

Spenser Allaway (Senior Analyst)

Okay. Great. And then, when you mentioned lower margins and lower growth prospects in the portfolio divestment you made, are you able to share a little bit more, in terms of, like, specifics, in terms of how those margins fared relative to the portfolio average, as well as kind of how you thought about the growth prospects?

Brandon Togashi (EVP and CFO)

So, Spencer, this is Brandon. Like, so far, our existing portfolio, our NOI margins in the, you know, low 70s, 72, 73. And the portfolio sale assets were in the high 60s, so mid to high 60% NOI margin.

Spenser Allaway (Senior Analyst)

Okay. Great. And sorry, just last one. So you mentioned also that you feel, you know, you guys have made great progress on the portfolio composition and in the balance sheet, certainly in the last few months. But you did comment that you feel that well-positioned you to grow, and look at certain, you know, acquisitions as you move through 2024. However, given your cost of capital is still fairly impaired, trading at a double-digit NAV discount, how do you think about financing, and growing given that dynamic?

Dave Cramer (President and CEO)

It's a great question. You know, we certainly think there's a couple of things going on with the market. We think as we start to see portfolio or stores and portfolios and small portfolios, we think the JVs probably offer the best opportunity to get started with capital light, of course, for us. And that's the best way to get started, I think, as things start to turn. We are starting to see properties come a little bit more realistic in pricing, and so we're pleased about that. So, you know, as the market conditions improve, you know, the JVs a great place for us to start. And then I do believe the team will find one-off assets in some of these markets where we can buy on balance sheet as well.

Spenser Allaway (Senior Analyst)

Excellent. Thank you.

Dave Cramer (President and CEO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Our next question is from Jeff Spector with Bank of America. Please proceed.

Elizabeth Doykan (Equity Research Analyst)

Hey, everyone. It's Lizzy Doykan on for Jeff. I just wanted to go back to comments from the beginning on seeing evidence that February likely ends up being the bottom. Just wanted to clarify, was that referring to new customer rate or occupancy? And maybe can you give some more color on the kind of trends you're seeing into February that is giving you this confidence? Thanks.

Dave Cramer (President and CEO)

Yeah. Great question. Thanks for joining. You know, what we really as we came out of the fourth quarter, we really saw from a net rental activity, you know, the quarter itself was not, you know, it wasn't overly dynamic for us in the fourth quarter. There was a lot of competitiveness. Our team focused very much on looking at the revenue end result. And so, you know, as we looked at street rate and as we looked at competitive sets and where we wanted to position ourselves, I think we were really patient in the fourth quarter trying not to dip our finger into a really competitive rate environment. What we've seen in January and February is improvement. January's rental volume and move-out volumes are down to last year. Rental volume improved compared to last year.

In February, what we've seen is rental volume and rental volume above last year and move-out volume below last year. So we actually are going to have a net rental month in February. So, we're encouraged about the change and the trend coming out of the fourth quarter to the first two months of this year. We think, you know, the street rate environment's still very competitive, but we've definitely seen the move activity pick up and the conversion rate pick up.

Elizabeth Doykan (Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. That's more helpful. Thank you. And I was wondering if you guys disclosed a, like, cap rate, cap rates for the portfolio sales made in December and then the 38 properties sold in February? And separately, is there any expectations around dispositions activity this year, the rest of the year?

Dave Cramer (President and CEO)

Yeah. Yeah. As I just kind of talked to Todd's question. We, you know, on the sale of the properties, we said the cap rate we said was right around 6%. You know, and that's for the full 71 assets, which are going to be really three closings, right? You have one closed last year, and then we have a closing later this year. We have one asset that will close in March. And so that'll be the end of that. As far as, you know, sale of assets this year, I, you know, we're going to be selective. There are still areas we're looking at. There are still some properties that we know and have identified that we will probably transact on this year from a sale perspective.

But again, the heavy lifting was really done last year through this really, you know, concerted effort to position ourselves to be ready for growth this year, the back half of this year.

Brandon Togashi (EVP and CFO)

Then Lizzy on the JV assets, Dave did give earlier a low 6 cap rate on that. That's after the fees to us as manager of those assets. And just as a point of reference, we, you know, put $200 million-$210 million of debt on that portfolio via the JV at a 6.05% interest rate. And so it was important for us with our JV partner to kind of clear that from a yield perspective, but then also in terms of what we were getting out of it to be inside of the immediate use of proceeds, which is paying down our line of credit at a 6.7% rate.

Elizabeth Doykan (Equity Research Analyst)

Thanks for the color.

Brandon Togashi (EVP and CFO)

Thanks, Lizzy.

Dave Cramer (President and CEO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Our next question is from Samir Khanal with Evercore ISI. Please proceed.

Samir Khanal (Fundamental Research Analyst)

Yes. Hi. Good afternoon. Hey, hey, Brandon. Just curious, on revenue growth guidance, and you spoke a little bit about that. I mean, it's, it's a pretty wide range. So help us understand kind of what your what's the biggest swing factor here to kind of get you the top end or the low end? Is, is it the housing market, or is it something else?

Brandon Togashi (EVP and CFO)

Hey, Samir. Thanks for joining. Yeah. I mean, I would say it's largely, you know, interest rates and their impact on housing. I mean, obviously, transition and mobility generally, you know, is important for our business. But rewinding a year ago, I mean, I think, and having to revise our beginning of the year guidance in 2023, you know, in August with our second quarter report, I think in hindsight, when we look back on it, we underestimated a little bit the severity of that impact on rates. And so, you know, when we look at this year, certainly, there's a general consensus that rates will come down. But when exactly that happens and, you know, a lot of people think in midyear and beyond.

So I just don't think there's a lot of confidence that we're going to see a meaningful impact in the spring. And so that's certainly baked into our expectations. So at the midpoint of our guide, Samir, we're really assuming that occupancy is relatively flat from where it is right now, throughout the rest of the year and not really you know, maybe a modest improvement in the spring, summer, but not really a tremendous lift. And then rates similarly, kind of assuming that rates really just kind of tread water and stay relatively flat from where they are. And when you run that out versus the prior year comp, that's kind of what gets you to the -2% midpoint.

Samir Khanal (Fundamental Research Analyst)

Okay. Got it. And I guess, Dave, I guess how should we think about occupancy in 2024? I mean, you're when I look at compare occupancy today versus maybe sort of pre-pandemic, you know, 2019, you're about 100 basis points lower. You know, I know you have to find the right balance between rate and occupancy, but help us think through kind of how you think occupancy could trend through the quarters in 2024.

Dave Cramer (President and CEO)

Yeah. Great question. I personally think we could see some occupancy improvement. You know, I do think that with the competitive nature of what happened, really, the back half of 2023, there was a substantial push to hold occupancy in a lot of markets. And that came at the expense of rates. And there was some really competitive rate environments going on. I think that's going to ease. I think, you know, objectives are being met. And I think, you know, from our standpoint, we're testing a few more occupancy-based models where we're testing a little different rate strategy, and we're seeing some success around that. We need to obviously test it and prove it out that it proves to the best revenue model.

But, you know, I look at where we sit today and where we can go, you know, to Brandon's point, he was talking about earlier, to get to our higher points, will be around occupancy. And I think there is an opportunity for us, you know, if conditions improve, to move on occupancy.

Brandon Togashi (EVP and CFO)

Samir, maybe just a little more color. Like, I'll give you an example. In a market like Portland, right, our second biggest market, we're actually about 800 basis points more occupied for those stores than we were in late 2019 prior to, you know, all the craziness of the multiple years throughout the pandemic. And that's come at the cost of rate. I mean, rates are lower than they were then. And so that's a situation where we clearly have not been bashful about moving rates to try to drive occupancy where we can. But it's just it's market by market. And so, you know, we're making those decisions on a market level where we think we yield the best returns.

Dave Cramer (President and CEO)

That's right. You know, if you pointed to the odds versus that, if you look at Oklahoma City, which is down a significant amount of occupancy, they're still carrying one of the largest revenue increases in the portfolio. That's why we think it's a balance, Samir. And so, you know, we do hope that, you know, the worst is behind us as far as the dynamic rate competitiveness. And hopefully, you know, from just a macroeconomic condition transition around the country improves a little bit, and that'll help us grow occupancy.

Samir Khanal (Fundamental Research Analyst)

Thank you.

Dave Cramer (President and CEO)

Thanks.

Operator (participant)

Our next question is from Eric Wolfe with Citi. Please proceed.

Eric Wolfe (Vice President and Equity Research Analyst)

Hey. Thanks. You mentioned that you're expecting occupancy to stay sort of at current levels around 86%, which I think, you know, if you're going to get to sort of the midpoint of your guidance would imply that revenue per occupied foot needs to be sort of flattish to slightly up year-over-year. I guess first, is that right? And then second, could you talk about what you sort of need to see from moving rates, ECRIs, and churn to get there?

Dave Cramer (President and CEO)

Yeah. Great question. And yes, you're right. I mean, the achieved rate or contract rate's pretty much flat as we carry our way through the year. You know, our existing consumer, as we talked about our opening remarks, is remaining, you know, super stable, and they're very durable right now. And so our ECRI program is really helping us achieve the stability around contract rate. Our cadences are remaining the same. You know, our effectiveness in the lift we're giving our customers is very stable. And so to the upside, if we're trying to get to the upside of our guidance, would be around street rate improvement, and coming off some of the really, you know, tough rolldowns that we're in right now.

You know, you know, these are really again, I think if the street rate environment improves, that allows us to lift our street rates. And we can also lift some occupancy as we come, you know, through the spring season with some changes around transition in the country. You know, if everything stayed the same as Brandon said, you know, that's what gets us to the midpoint. And that's really how we've looked at the year. It's really hard to have some clarity right now. We've had two good months. We're encouraged by January and February. But really, until we get through the spring leasing season, that's when we'll really know: did we get an occupancy lift? Were we able to push some street rates in the spring? If we're able to do that, then that's going to push us above the midpoint of our guide.

Until we know that, it's really hard to have clarity on and conviction around not just having a, you know, more midpoint year.

Eric Wolfe (Vice President and Equity Research Analyst)

Got it. That's, that's helpful. And then just a clarification on the cap rate. You mentioned 6%, around 6% for the disposition, the holding onto assets, and then low sixes for what you contributed to the JV. I was just curious, is that sort of on a nominal cap rate historical basis, or does it include CapEx? Is it forward-looking? Just trying to understand how it's calculated.

Dave Cramer (President and CEO)

It's really on a nominal kind of historical NOI basis, pending NOI basis.

Brandon Togashi (EVP and CFO)

Eric, with the JV I mean, with the one thing I'll add is on the JV adjusting for the fees to us as manager.

Dave Cramer (President and CEO)

Right.

Brandon Togashi (EVP and CFO)

Just because, you know, we continue to be a partial owner in those, so that's the way we have to look at that.

Eric Wolfe (Vice President and Equity Research Analyst)

Got it. Thank you.

Dave Cramer (President and CEO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Our next question is from Juan Sanabria with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed.

Speaker 13

Hi. This is Robin Hanley sitting in for Juan. Maybe just some ECRIs as a follow-up there. How do you expect the bumps to impact 2024 growth relative to 2023? Is the pace and magnitude changing year-over-year, or any update there?

Dave Cramer (President and CEO)

Thanks for joining. Yeah. You know, stability, we have you know, we're actually probably a little more assertive on the percentage of rate increase now than we were the first half of last year. We really, our tools really allowed us to look at how we were looking at our customer base and what, you know, percentage of the customer base we were hitting and what percentage of increase. And so, you know, the first half of the year, we weren't as dialed in as we are now. So, I think it's stable. I think, you know, the first half of the year, we might be a little more, you know, a little more frequency or not frequency, but a few more of our customers might see a rate increase just based upon what we've learned through the back half of the year.

No real change, I guess, is what I'd probably end with as far as our conviction of what the program and how the program's working.

Speaker 13

Okay. And you mentioned in your prepared remarks, that some markets are seeing supply pressures. Could you maybe just quantify, if, if you know, the percentage of the portfolio that's exposed to supply in 2024 versus 2023 and maybe if you have visibility into 2025, at this point?

Dave Cramer (President and CEO)

Well, I would tell you I would start with, we do think new start or new additions or new completions are certainly less year-over-year, and the outlook looks like it's going to be less for our portfolio. All of our markets the way we really look at it is if you think about the rings that we study, around our properties of new competition, each one of those is having a declining percentage of impact from new competitors. So that means the ones that were built are starting to fill up and come to maturity, and less of them are being added in this you know, in our rings around our properties. And so we look favorable as far as new supply impacting our portfolio, you know, in 2024 and 2025.

But there's still markets, like we discussed in the opening call, where particularly in the Sun Belt, where there was a lot of population growth. We had a lot of success during COVID. And but there's been a lot of product that was built during that time that was masked by the COVID pandemic because we had these phenomenal operating results that are now coming back to they're there, and we have to go through the fill-up cycle. So Phoenix would be a great example of that. It will grow itself out of it, but there is a lot of product to be absorbed, and that will just take time.

Speaker 13

Thank you.

Dave Cramer (President and CEO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Our next question is from Keegan Carl with Wolfee Research. Please proceed.

Keegan Carl (SVP of Equity Research)

Yeah. Thanks for the time, guys. Maybe first, just wondering if you could give some color on how you're going to differentiate your acquisition opportunities between your wholly-owned strategy and your newly-formed JVs?

Dave Cramer (President and CEO)

A great question. I think a lot of it's going to be around, you know, what the, the property type is and the and the cost of the property. You know, the, the JV level opportunity I think it'd be a little more aggressive around buying properties at the in this time frame at, at the pricing that's out there, in the markets we want to be in. And, it's, it's a great opportunity for us to tap into those. You know, it's the stuff that we're going to look to probably wholly own will be probably a little more patient with, and we're going to have to find those opportunities that fit, you know, an accretion level we want. And that will, will probably take a little bit more time.

So having the JVs available to us, we think, is a great advantage, and it allows us to get started sooner than if we didn't have the JVs.

Keegan Carl (SVP of Equity Research)

Got it. And then shifting gears, one for Brandon here. Obviously, you guys have done a ton regarding your balance sheet. Could you just maybe help us a little bit with what an expected range of your interest expense would look like this year and what sort of assumptions would be underlying that?

Brandon Togashi (EVP and CFO)

Yeah. Keegan, so I don't have a, you know, specific dollar amounts necessarily to share with you, but I can tell you the SOFR assumption that we're using for the year is an average of 5%. And so, you know, on our variable rate, that, that puts you close to a, you know, 6.3%-6.4% depending on whether you're talking about our revolver or some of the, the term loan, facilities that, that can carry a variable rate if we haven't hedged them. What's really going to move it is just deployment of capital. So going back to, I think, maybe earlier question from Spencer, what we could have added to that response is just, you know, the timing of the acquisition volume that we have guided to. And Dave, I guess Dave did hit on it earlier. We bias that towards the back half of the year.

I would also caution, you know, that $100 million-$300 million, that's really kind of the, the transaction dollar amount that we are guiding to closing on. To your previous question, that could take place on balance sheet, or that could be through a JV of in, in which case, you know, it'd be a 25% share for us. So that's really what's going to move the needle the most. More immediately, though, I will acknowledge, you know, we've been active on the share repurchase program these first couple of months. If our share price stays at the level that it's been at, you can expect us to continue to execute on that, you know, to the extent that we have got that capacity remaining on the $275 million that we established in December.

That's also baked into our numbers for the year, and that will include some immediate use of the line of credit as we go forward over the next couple of months.

Keegan Carl (SVP of Equity Research)

Got it. Thanks, guys.

Dave Cramer (President and CEO)

Thank you.

Brandon Togashi (EVP and CFO)

Thanks, Keegan.

Operator (participant)

Our next question is from Ki Bin Kim with Truist. Please proceed.

Ki Bin Kim (Managing Director of US REIT Equity Research)

Thank you. Just going back to some of the asset sales, you mentioned that, in the JV, you might have an opportunity to buy them back. Also just curious if there's any kind of contractual option language, with some type of set pricing that's, in the contracts, or is it just more of a ROFR?

Dave Cramer (President and CEO)

It's more of a ROFR. There's no notifying pricing there. But yeah, more of a ROFR.

Brandon Togashi (EVP and CFO)

Similar to our other JVs, Ki Bin, it's, you know, we have the ability to be very involved at the end of that process, but there's a, you know, either a marketing or some kind of valuation step process that's involved. And then also similar to our other ventures, there's a, you know, based on the returns that we've provided to our partner, a promote opportunity that would help, you know, reduce the purchase price to us at that point in time.

Ki Bin Kim (Managing Director of US REIT Equity Research)

Okay. I think the total sales are about, like, $850 million or so. Just roughly speaking, like, what % of those proceeds are you thinking about to use for repurchase versus paying down debt versus buying assets?

Brandon Togashi (EVP and CFO)

Yeah. I would characterize it this way, Ki Bin. You know, we've, as Dave said at the beginning, really kind of defined last year, middle of the year, a strategy that we've been executing on over these past couple of quarters on, you know, paying down our line of credit, freeing up some dry powder, taking advantage of dislocation in our stock price through the repurchase program, and then obviously executing on some of these portfolio improvement strategies. So the $8, if you use the $835 number that you mentioned that we disclosed, if you go back to six months ago, when we started getting really active under our repurchase program, we've done about a little over $300 million. We've got a little less than $200 million available on the recently established program.

If we exhaust that, that would be about $500 million of share repurchases, and the rest would be debt paydown. That gives you a 60% equity, 40% debt mix, which is not dissimilar from, you know, the capitalization of the company prior to all these executions. So those numbers, you know, are deliberate and kind of hang together with a path that we set down on. Of course, that can change if, you know, market conditions change, if acquisition opportunities become more favorable in the next few months than the share repurchases, then we'll switch and pivot. But that's kind of how we foresaw this playing out, and so far, it's played out that way.

Ki Bin Kim (Managing Director of US REIT Equity Research)

Okay. I'm not sure if I missed it, but did you guys talk about what the rates were year-over-year change in 4Q and how that trended in January, February?

Dave Cramer (President and CEO)

You're talking street rate or what? I'm sorry.

Ki Bin Kim (Managing Director of US REIT Equity Research)

Street rates.

Dave Cramer (President and CEO)

Yeah. Street rates. So if you know, we entered the fourth quarter about -14.2 year-over-year. Fourth quarter pinched down to just a shade above 10. And so far this year, it hasn't crept up much. The spread hasn't changed much.

Ki Bin Kim (Managing Director of US REIT Equity Research)

Okay. Thank you.

Dave Cramer (President and CEO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Our next question is from Eric Luebchow with Wells Fargo. Please proceed.

Eric Luebchow (Director and Senior Equity Analyst)

Great. Thanks for taking the question. You know, I wanted to touch higher level, Dave, on the technology side. I know you touched on this, on the investments you're making. Are you looking to perhaps be even more dynamic in how you price your units from a revenue management perspective? And then I know you've talked in the past about unit reconfiguration, and that could be a source of occupancy upside. Is that something that, you know, we should see throughout the course of this year or kind of a longer-term aspiration?

Dave Cramer (President and CEO)

Yeah. Great questions. Thanks for being with us today. Yeah, technically, we've really invested heavily with team and technology, and we're starting to see the payoff, particularly around revenue management from, you know, the strength of the ECRI program, as we talked about earlier, and our conviction around what we can do with attendance and what, you know, the successes we've had there. And so that's been the immediate first. And then we've actually implemented a couple of front-end pricing models that we're testing, you know, that could look a little bit more around the ideal occupancy and street rate mix. And so those models have just been stood up, and they're actually in their testing modes in several markets, and we're starting to see different iterations come out of that.

And along with an automated Google bid model, so we're actually looking at how we take, you know, the technology and apply it to when we're, you know, spending ad dollars, how we're spending ad dollars, what we do with that investment, when do we get the best return out of it. And so all of these things that we've been working on are really starting to put themselves in play, and that's what gives us a really good outlook, I think, longer term as we learn and as we adapt and as we get better, particularly in competitive markets. But as we come out of this competitive market, what we can really do to drive our business forward. The last thing that we didn't talk a lot about is we've spent a lot of time around a customer service center.

We've really added on a tremendous amount of talent in that organization and, and team members in that organization. So as you think about our payroll model that we've been working on about staffing hours and reduction in staffing hours and having satellite properties and remote properties, the customer service center has really become an important piece, so that the consumer can deal with us digitally. They can deal with us over the phone. And so, you know, the new operating platform we stood up in the fourth quarter allows all of this customer service center seamless integration to all of the platforms, and it really helps us conduct business remotely.

And so, yeah, you know, it's. I look at what the team went through in the back half of the year with the strategic initiatives, but it's not to be underscored how much of a lift it was to get the technology pieces in place. And, you know, it's. I'm proud of them. And looking back on it, you know, a year or two from now, we're going to be really, really happy with what we completed.

Eric Luebchow (Director and Senior Equity Analyst)

Great. Just one follow-up. I know you touched on this a little bit on the ECRI program. I believe you've said in some previous periods that kind of the average increase was somewhere in the 13%-15% range across your portfolio. Just wondering if, you know, are you having success, especially for some of the lower-rent customers over the last year pushing, you know, a much higher magnitude rate increase, you know, earlier in the cycle and then perhaps slightly lower rate increases for your longer-tenured customers? Or how do we kind of think about that dynamic, embedded in your guide? Thanks.

Dave Cramer (President and CEO)

Yeah. I think you're thinking about it the right way. We are learning, you know, particularly on the new entries that we can certainly push harder. And as you work your way farther through the life cycle, you know, maybe it's less of a frequency or less of an impact of a rate increase. But yes, the technology is certainly teaching us to be. We can have a little different approach to newer customers, given today's environment too, where they are coming in at a pretty discounted rate. If you think about environments, we certainly are being a little more impactful on that first rate increase.

Eric Luebchow (Director and Senior Equity Analyst)

All right. Thank you, Dave.

Dave Cramer (President and CEO)

Hey. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

As a reminder, there's star one on your telephone keypad if you would like to ask a question. Our next question is from Michael Goldsmith with UBS. Please proceed.

Michael Goldsmith (Stock Analyst)

Good afternoon. Thanks a lot for taking my question. Dave, you, you mentioned earlier that in February, move-ins were up, move-outs were down, making it a net rental month. But what does your data or your surveys show, that's driving the improvement? What, what's the thesis behind the improvement in February?

Dave Cramer (President and CEO)

It's a good question. Our surveying is actually showing a little bit more tenants moving a little bit now. Maybe they're moving apartment to apartment and, and maybe not to house to house, but we did see a little more uptick in people who are moving. And so that's encouraging. And that's just on exit surveys, Michael, you know, as we pull customers coming and going, new rentals and people who are moving out. And so that's encouraging because I think that's really the larger part of our business that's missing right now and the demand factor is around that transition. Other than the rest of the metrics, really not a whole lot of change about what we're surveying. I would say that's probably the point that we saw a little more positive impact on.

Michael Goldsmith (Stock Analyst)

Thanks for that. And Brandon, just thinking about the asset sales, you know, the facilities that you sold tend to have lower revenue growth, lower margin profiles in the core portfolio. Is there any framework to think about, you know, how the you know, what sort of benefit you'll see without these facilities in your portfolio, for example, right? You sold 70 properties. That's about 10% of the same store portfolio. And if they were growing 250 basis points slower, it should be about a 25 basis point benefit to same store revenue growth. Is there any way to kind of frame that out on the impact on the whole portfolio? Thanks.

Brandon Togashi (EVP and CFO)

Yeah, Michael. So, I think the best way for me to give you a sense is just, you know, some of those assets, we obviously completed the sale in the fourth quarter, so I don't have, like, a full year of numbers for those properties. Others were held for sale, and I do. But I know when I looked at it through 9/30, for example, like the nine months year to date, and our old same store pool was 834 stores, and then as you saw, you know, we revised that down to 724, that did help the improvement, you know, the performance of that remaining 724 stores. It wasn't numbers that are going to, you know, knock you out of your seat.

It was maybe 10 basis points on revenue, maybe 20 basis points on NOI, where that growth profile of the remaining 70,724 was, you know, better than the 834 that still had the blended effect of assets that we have now sold. So I think, you know, it's modestly better in that regard. Obviously, we talked earlier on the call about the NOI margin. That's a more meaningful impact. And then I think, you know, it also just hits on some of the other things that Dave remarked on. I mean, there's just a lot of operational efficiencies in terms of where those assets are located and just in markets where we didn't have a tremendous amount of scale. And so there's a lot of benefit that you maybe don't quite see in the numbers I just cited.

But from running the portfolio, running our regions and divisions, there's a lot of efficiencies there.

Michael Goldsmith (Stock Analyst)

Thank you very much. Good luck in 2024.

Dave Cramer (President and CEO)

Thanks, Michael.

Brandon Togashi (EVP and CFO)

Thanks, Michael.

Operator (participant)

Our next question is from Ronald Kamdem with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed.

Speaker 14

Hey. It's Jenny on the phone. I just have a few quick questions. First is, would you mind sharing the exact occupancy and the street rate year-over-year change as of today? I know we still have a few hours to finish February, but curious about that.

Brandon Togashi (EVP and CFO)

So, Jenny, on occupancy, you know, yeah, we don't we don't want to really speak too much about February just because, you know, there is some movement towards the last few days of the month. But in my opening remarks, I mentioned that the spot occupancy at the end of January was 390 basis points down over prior year. That has tightened a little bit in February. I think we're going to probably be closer to 380 basis points just based on how the last few days have looked, year-over-year. So that goes hand in hand with what Dave said earlier about, you know, February having some optimistic read-throughs. And then street rate, I don't have in front of me on February, but Dave, if you do, feel free.

Dave Cramer (President and CEO)

Yeah. Yeah. I mean, the street rate itself, I mean, as we talked about, we came out of street rates, you know, down about 10.5% in the fourth quarter. Street rates, you know, in February, were similar to same. Street rates have got maybe 1 point, 1.5 points, you know, a little bit worse compared to where they were a year ago, so maybe closer to 12%-12.5% down year-over-year. That I think largely, that's because we're, we are testing some markets around, you know, can we, you know, by improving our rate, can we drive some better occupancy and, and trying to figure out a better revenue model. So, a little, little deterioration in year-over-year street rate.

Speaker 14

Makes sense. Thanks so much. How should I think about the pricing power this upcoming peak leasing season, like, versus last year in your specific market?

Dave Cramer (President and CEO)

That's a, that's a really good question. You know, I, I think we all approached last year thinking we could raise street rates and, and, and have an occupancy lift. I think, you know, in our markets, we've lifted street rates, and we saw no change in occupancy. I think we're going to be probably a little more cautious around the, the street rate lift, and, and see what we can drive in occupancy as we go through the, the first couple of months of the spring leasing season. It also really market by market, store by store, comparison on what the competitive set looks like. You know, there's certainly things we can't control. If, if it remains very competitive, then we will not be able to drive any type of street rate lift.

If we think the competitive sets are moving up, we'll move up with them.

Speaker 14

Makes sense. I kind of just squeeze another one. Like, just on, on asset sale front, like, do you plan to sell, like, additional batch of assets in 2024, like, after this one to recycle some capital, or that's not something in your mind?

Dave Cramer (President and CEO)

I certainly think we're not done looking at, you know, the portfolio optimization. I don't think the large lift is over. And so now, I think it's going to be a little more selective. You know, it may not come in chunks. It may just be, you know, singles, ones, and twos, or maybe some doubles here, but probably not large chunks at this point.

Speaker 14

Okay. Thanks so much. Good luck in 2024.

Dave Cramer (President and CEO)

Hey. Thank you. Thanks for joining.

Operator (participant)

We have reached the end of our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to George Hoglund for closing remarks.

George Hoglund (VP of Investor Relations)

Thank you all for your continued interest in NSA. We're excited about the opportunities that lie ahead and our current position to be able to take advantage of those opportunities. We look forward to seeing many of you next week in Florida.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. This will conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.