NTAP Q1 2026: AI wins double to 125 infra & data lake deals
- Strong AI momentum: NetApp’s executives highlighted that the company more than doubled its AI wins year-over-year, closing approximately 125 AI infrastructure and data lake deals in Q1 2026, underscoring robust customer adoption in the enterprise AI space.
- Market leadership in flash storage: The firm continues to maintain its competitive edge by taking the number one position in the all-flash market and capitalizing on a high installed base—with 45% of systems under active support being all flash—which bodes well for future refresh cycles and revenue growth.
- Comprehensive product portfolio and ecosystem: NetApp is enhancing its product suite for AI applications by addressing data organization, search, and management challenges, and strengthening its ecosystem through partnerships with hyperscalers and NVIDIA. This positions the company favorably to expand its total addressable market for enterprise data infrastructure.
- Deceleration in all flash revenue growth and margin pressure: Q&A discussion highlighted that all flash revenue growth has slowed from double‐digit levels in fiscal 2025 to about 5% in Q1 2026, with product gross margins suffering due to cost increases and an unfavorable mix.
- Weak performance in the U.S. Public Sector: Management noted significant softness in the U.S. public sector, with uncertainty about future budget deployment and reliance on a recovery in Q2, which poses risks to overall revenue growth.
- Supply chain and cost pressures impacting profitability: Concerns were raised over increased flash component costs and pricing dynamics, suggesting that ongoing supply chain issues and adverse mix effects could further pressure product gross margins in future quarters.
Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
---|---|---|---|
AI Adoption and Infrastructure Wins | Previous calls described robust AI momentum with Q4 2025 reporting around 150 AI infrastructure and data lake modernization deals and Q3 2025 noting over 100 wins as enterprises moved from proofs-of‐concept to production deployments. | Q1 2026 focused on continued momentum with 125 AI infrastructure deals, expanding use cases (data lakes, training, RAG) and enhanced ecosystem initiatives such as AI Pod Mini and NVIDIA reference architectures. | Consistent momentum is maintained with growing enterprise adoption and an expanded AI ecosystem. |
Market Leadership in All-Flash Storage | In Q3 2025, all-flash storage grew 10% YOY with strong product portfolio refreshes and installed base penetration, while Q4 2025 highlighted record revenue run rates, significant market share gains, and competitive wins. | Q1 2026 reported a deceleration in all-flash revenue growth to 6% YOY, driven by higher flash costs and regional softness, yet reaffirmed the company’s market leadership and strategic positioning. | Leadership remains strong, though growth and margins are under pressure from cost dynamics. |
Product Portfolio Innovation and Ecosystem Expansion | Q3 2025 emphasized a refreshed product portfolio—including AFF, ASA, and storage grids—and initial AI integrations, while Q4 2025 expanded on AI-ready infrastructure, new cloud services, and strategic partner certifications for NVIDIA and hyperscalers. | Q1 2026 continued the innovation theme with enhanced AI-specific solutions (e.g., AI Pod Mini), further cloud storage enhancements, and broader ecosystem expansion through new partnerships and reference architectures. | Robust and evolving innovation persists with a deepening focus on AI and cloud-enabled solutions. |
Storage-as-a-Service (Keystone) Growth | Q3 2025 noted strong momentum with nearly 60% YOY growth and contribution to professional services, and Q4 2025 reported a 54% YOY increase in Keystone TCV with growing customer adoption and use cases favoring OpEx over CapEx. | Q1 2026 reported an 80% YOY revenue increase for Keystone, reinforcing its role in bridging on-premises to cloud transitions and boosting professional services with flexible consumption models. | The as‐a‐service model is accelerating, with consistently strong growth and deeper customer adoption. |
Cost Pressures, Tariff Impacts, and Supply Chain Challenges | In Q3 2025, NetApp managed cost pressures with strategic SSD purchases and minimal tariff exposure, while Q4 2025 detailed a 40–60 basis point tariff impact and disciplined supply chain performance to counter cost and regional challenges. | Q1 2026 highlighted higher flash costs affecting margins but noted that supply chain challenges remain minimal with no significant disruptions and no new tariff actions, suggesting improved resilience. | Persistent cost pressures are being balanced by improved supply chain management, with tariffs remaining controlled. |
US Public Sector and Geopolitical Uncertainties | Q3 2025 showed the U.S. public sector contributing 10–13% of revenue, while Q4 2025 discussed caution due to federal budget uncertainties and geopolitical risks in EMEA affecting customer behavior. | Q1 2026 described the U.S. public sector as very weak due to delayed budget deployment and shifting allocations, with ongoing geopolitical uncertainty continuing to affect market sentiment. | The U.S. public sector has weakened further and geopolitical uncertainties persist, posing challenges to near-term revenue. |
Sales Execution and Deal Slippage Issues | Q3 2025 saw inconsistent sales execution with delays in closing large deals, while Q4 2025 emphasized that most deal slippages were resolved and sequential growth exceeded trends. | No mention in Q1 2026, indicating that the previous deal slippage issues have been effectively resolved and are no longer a detractor [N/A]. | Earlier execution issues have been resolved, highlighting improved deal management and execution discipline. |
Working Capital and Free Cash Flow Constraints | Q3 2025 noted working capital headwinds from strategic SSD purchases and tax timing that reduced cash flow, while Q4 2025 showed some easing with improved operating cash flow and free cash flow performance despite earlier constraints. | Q1 2026 posted record cash flow from operations and free cash flow, reflecting significant improvements in working capital management. | Significant improvements have been achieved, with free cash flow constraints largely resolved. |
Near-Term Revenue Guidance and Outlook Concerns | Q3 2025 provided Q4 guidance factoring FX, the divestiture of Spot, and public sector caution, and Q4 2025 detailed near-term concerns over macro uncertainties, tariffs, and regional issues affecting budgets. | Q1 2026 maintained moderate near-term guidance with revenue expectations for Q2 and full-year forecasts, while caution persists due to continued weakness in the U.S. public sector and broader macroeconomic challenges. | A consistently cautious near-term outlook remains due to macroeconomic and geopolitical pressures, despite progress on longer-term growth drivers. |
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All Flash & Margins
Q: Why is all flash growth just 5%?
A: Management explained that softness in the U.S. Public sector and an unfavorable product mix driven partly by higher NAND costs caused the slowdown, though they expect product margins to gradually recover toward their long‐term mid–high 50% range. -
Public Cloud Margin
Q: Why raise cloud margin target to 80–85%?
A: CFO highlighted that depreciation roll-off and increased software revenue are boosting margins, which supports a higher, more sustainable public cloud target of 80–85%. -
Market Outlook
Q: Will weak public/EMEA markets bounce back?
A: The CEO noted strong performance in the Americas commercial segment with public sector softness expected to improve in Q2 and EMEA challenges remaining localized. -
Enterprise AI Architecture
Q: What components support enterprise AI needs?
A: Management stated that customers build AI infrastructures using a blend of all-flash storage for training and inference paired with archival object storage for data lakes, ensuring robust AI readiness. -
AI Deal Pipeline
Q: How significant are the new AI wins?
A: The company more than doubled its number of AI-related deals—from small proofs of concept to large-scale training engagements—underscoring a strong and broad pipeline. -
Installed Base & Keystone
Q: How are refresh cycles and Keystone progressing?
A: Management noted that approximately 45% of systems are now all flash and emphasized Keystone’s role in bridging on-prem and cloud, reinforcing attractive as-a-service offerings. -
Competitive & Supply Chain
Q: How are competition and component costs affecting margins?
A: While competitive pressures exist—especially in certain regions—stable pre-buy pricing and supply chain management are expected to help restore margins over time. -
AI TAM Expansion
Q: Is the AI total addressable market growing?
A: The CEO indicated that enhanced data organization and automated search processes are broadening the overall addressable market for enterprise AI initiatives. -
NAND Technology & Seasonality
Q: Do 128TB QLC drives affect search solutions?
A: The CEO reassured that a wide range of NAND technologies, from 15TB to 60TB drives and beyond, ensures no limitations for AI search functionalities, and overall seasonality remains manageable. -
Hypervisor Support
Q: How will hypervisors staying supported benefit customers?
A: The company confirmed its commitment to supporting an extensive range of both on-prem and cloud hypervisors, preserving flexibility for diverse customer environments.
Research analysts covering NetApp.