Nutrien - Q4 2022

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Nutrien 2022 Q4 earnings conference call. At this time, all lines are in listen-only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a Q&A session. If at any time during this call you require immediate assistance, please press star zero for the operator. This call is being recorded on February 16th, 2023 at 10:00 A.M. Eastern Time. I would now like to turn the conference over to Jeff Holshouser, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Jeff Holshouser (VP of Investor Relations)

Thank you, operator. Good morning and welcome to Nutrien's fourth quarter 2022 conference call. As we conduct this call, various statements that we make about future expectations, plans, and prospects contain forward-looking information. Certain material assumptions were applied in making these conclusions and forecasts. Therefore, actual results could differ materially from those contained in our forward-looking information. Additional information about these factors and assumptions are contained in our quarterly report to shareholders, as well as our most recent annual report, MD&A, and annual information form filed with Canadian and U.S. Securities Commissions. I will now turn the call over to Ken Seitz, President and CEO, and Pedro Farah, our CFO, for opening comments before we take your questions.

Ken Seitz (President and CEO)

Good morning, thank you for joining us as we recap our full year results and discuss the outlook for our business going forward. 2022 was an unprecedented year on many fronts. New political events, most notably the war between Russia and Ukraine, contributed to significant supply disruptions across agriculture, energy, and fertilizer markets. The supply shocks were most pronounced for global fertilizer markets, leading to higher prices, increased volatility, and major shifts in buying patterns throughout the year. Nutrien delivered record earnings and cash flow in this environment due to the advantages of our world-class production, distribution, and retail network. We invested $2.9 billion to sustain our assets and grow our business while returning $5.6 billion in capital to our shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. We progressed our sustainability priorities and most importantly, continued to achieve industry-leading safety performance across our business.

Nutrien Ag Solutions had another very strong year, generating Adjusted EBITDA of $2.3 billion. This result was driven by higher sales and gross margins across nearly all product categories and regions where we operate. The growth and relative earnings stability provided by our retail business is an advantage that differentiates Nutrien from our fertilizer peers. We completed 21 retail acquisitions in our core geographies with a focus on expanding our network in Brazil. This region is one of the fastest-growing agriculture markets in the world, and we see further opportunity to expand our network and provide whole-acre solutions to Brazilian growers. We made significant progress on our sustainable agriculture initiatives that are a key component of meeting the 2030 commitments in our Feeding the Future Plan.

We tripled the acreage enrolled in our Carbon Program compared to 2021 and are seeing excellent engagement from growers and strategic partners across the agriculture value chain. Turning to potash, we generated Adjusted EBITDA of nearly $6 billion in 2022, highlighting the importance of having low-cost operations that are backed by a reliable supply chain. In the first half, we sold record offshore volumes in response to increased demand from our customers and achieved higher realized selling prices. As we anticipated, potash volumes in the fourth quarter were down from the prior year as buyers in North America and Brazil limited purchases and drew down inventory. We adjusted our production plans accordingly and pulled forward some maintenance activities during this downtime, preserving the flexibility to quickly ramp up production when stronger demand re-emerges.

Our nitrogen earnings were supported by higher global benchmark prices and the advantaged cost position of our assets. Nitrogen sales volumes in the fourth quarter were impacted by lower production volumes and cautious buying from both fertilizer and industrial customers. The majority of the production losses were related to Trinidad gas curtailments and extreme cold weather events that caused outages at our North American plants. We completed emissions abatement projects at three nitrogen sites that represent a major step towards meeting our goal to reduce CO₂ equivalent emissions by 1 million tons by the end of 2023. In phosphate, we delivered higher earnings due to increased selling prices, in particular for our high-value feed and industrial products, which more than offset a reduction in sales volumes. The structural shifts in the market over the past year highlighted the importance of being nimble and adaptable in an uncertain global environment.

We will take the learnings from 2022 as we advance our plans for 2023 and beyond. Now, turning to the outlook. The global grain stocks-to-use ratio is at its lowest point in more than 25 years. We expect it will take multiple cropping cycles to restore stocks to more adequate levels. Crop commodity prices are trading well above historical average levels. We anticipate increased planted acreage and crop input demand in North America and Brazil. In potash, sanctions on Belarus and restrictions on Russia have been in place for about one year. Over that time, the volume of potash exported has not materially improved. Belarus supply in particular remains constrained with shipments in recent months reported to be down more than 50% from the prior year.

This illustrates the importance of having reliable access to tidewater ports and the challenges associated with reworking distribution channels for a bulk commodity like potash. We continue to believe projects that were under development in Russia and Belarus will be delayed. These expansions comprised about 60% of the projected supply entering the market over the next five years outside of our own increases. We are forecasting global potash shipments between 63 million-67 million tons in 2023, which is still well below our unconstrained demand estimate of approximately 70 million tons. In North America, we believe retail potash inventories are down 15%-20% compared to the prior year following a healthy fall application season and limited restocking. This estimate is based on the view of Nutrien Ag Solutions inventories and our assessment of broader retail channel inventories.

We had a good response to our winter fill program that was released in January, although we are still seeing some level of buyer caution. We expect an additional wave of buying to meet demand for the spring season. This plays to the strength of Nutrien's leading production and distribution network in North America. Brazil has been the most active potash market to begin the year. Prices have stabilized following the significant destocking that occurred in the second half of 2022. We forecast a strong rebound in Brazilian imports in 2023 and more normal seasonal buying patterns, with demand increasing in the second and third quarters. Global nitrogen prices have softened due to the sharp drop in European gas prices and buyer deferrals.

We anticipate North American nitrogen prices will firm as we approach the spring season due to higher corn acreage and the impact of increased U.S. offshore exports in the second half of 2022. We believe there is a significant amount of nitrogen that will need to be delivered over the next few months to meet demand for spring application in the northern hemisphere. I will now turn it over to Pedro to review our guidance assumptions and capital allocation plans for 2023.

Pedro Farah (EVP and CFO)

Thanks, Ken. Good morning. Based on market conditions that Ken just highlighted, we expect to deliver historically strong earnings across each of our business segments in 2023. Starting with Nutrien Ag Solutions, we anticipate a recovery in fertilizer sales volumes and a reset in per ton margins similar to average values achieved in 2021. We are seeing strong prices for most crop protection products and forecast margin percent in line with historical average levels. The midpoint of our 2023 retail Adjusted EBITDA guidance range represents a 10% annual growth rate since 2018, reflecting the strength of Ag fundamentals and strong execution of our strategic growth initiatives. Our potash sales volumes guidance of 13.8 million to 14.6 million tons assume increased demand in our key markets of North America and Brazil and continued global supply restrictions.

We have maintained the flexibility to increase sales volumes to around 15 million tons in 2023 if we see stronger engagement in the market. As demonstrated in the past, there is tremendous economic value in having the capacity to meet surges in demand. Nutrien has an unmatched ability to deliver when this occurs. Our nitrogen guidance reflects the recent decline in benchmark prices and assumes some strengthening prior to the spring season. We expect higher nitrogen sales volumes in 2023 due to strong demand and increased operating rates at our North American plants. We are forecasting Trinidad gas curtailments of approximately 20% similar to the impact in the second half of 2022. Cash from operating activities is projected at $5.5 billion-$6.5 billion in 2023.

Our conversion ratio this year is impacted by timing of cash tax payments related to our record earnings in 2022. Without this impact, our conversion ratio would be estimated at around 75%, which is more in line with our run rate expectation. This is the basis we will make capital allocation decisions through the cycle and can utilize the strength of our balance sheet, if necessary, to normalize timing-related fluctuations in cash flow. We remain confident in the long-term outlook for the business and plan to invest approximately $3 billion to sustain our assets and advance high return strategic growth initiatives in 2023. In retail, our focus is to strengthen our network in Brazil and the U.S., expand our proprietary product offerings, and enhance our digital capabilities. This is very consistent with our retail investment priorities in the past.

In potash, we continue to progress the ramp up of our existing low-cost potash capacity, but have adjusted the timing to optimize capital expenditures in line with the pace of projected demand recovery in 2023 and . We will maintain a flexible approach and now expect to reach 18 million tons of annual operating capability in 2026. We have the advantage of bringing on this capacity in increments at a very low capital cost per ton and continue to believe there is significant value in having flexibility to increase production when the market needs it. Our nitrogen investments are focused on concluding in-flight low-cost brownfield expansions, decarbonization projects, and advancing front-end engineering work for our proposed Geismar clean ammonia plant. We intend on making a final investment decision on this project in the second half of the year. Finally, on our plans for returning capital to shareholders.

We completed our 10% NCIB in early February and have purchased more than 150 million shares since the beginning of 2018, reducing our number of shares outstanding by approximately 23%. Over this period, we have also demonstrated the ability and commitment to provide a competitive, stable, and growing dividend through the highs and lows of this cycle. Moving forward, we intend on factoring in the changes to the share count as a part of the decision criteria for future per-share dividend growth. Yesterday, our board of directors approved a 10% increase in our quarterly dividend and authorized a new 5% share repurchase program that provides optionality for additional share repurchases in 2023. I will now pass it back to Ken.

Ken Seitz (President and CEO)

Thanks, Pedro. I would just make a few final comments. The outlook for our business remains strong. Global grain and oilseed inventories are tight, structural supply issues persist, demand for crop inputs is expected to increase in 2023. We will remain disciplined in our capital allocation approach as we position the company to serve the needs of our customers while delivering long-term value for our shareholders. Finally, I would like to thank our nearly 25,000 global employees for their hard work, dedication, and focus on safety over the past year. It is through your efforts that we delivered record results in 2022 and positioned the company for success in the years ahead. We would now be happy to take your questions.

Operator (participant)

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. We will now begin the Q&A. Should you have a question, please press star followed by the one on your touch tone phone. You will hear a three-tone prompt acknowledging your request, and your questions will be pulled in the order they are received. Should you wish to decline from the polling process, please press the star followed by the two. If you are using a speakerphone, please lift the handset before pressing any keys. One moment please for your first question. Your first question comes from Andrew Wong with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Andrew Wong (Analyst)

Hi. Good morning. Actually I wanted to ask a bit about the potash strategy here and just how maybe market conditions affect both your shorter-term kind of production decisions and the longer-term ramp-up paths. You know, like, what kind of signals do you need for demand and pricing before raising production and ramping up capacity? Do you kind of tend to wait for some of these signals to show up first, or do you maybe increase production as you might expect some of these signals to show up? I'm just kinda wondering if you can elaborate a little bit more on that. Thanks.

Ken Seitz (President and CEO)

Yeah. Good morning, Andrew, and thank you for the question. Yes, obviously through 2022, we saw movement in inventory and some of the reactions to the supply side challenges related to ongoing sanctions against Belarus and of course, this conflict in Eastern Europe, which has created export challenges out of Russia. As we looked at the impacts, not only in the near term of some of those supply disruptions, but also as we mentioned, the impact on new projects that are under development, 60% of the new production coming to the market, we believe is delayed. We believe that those sort of underlying supply challenges will persist, and we believe that they'll persist, you know, into the certainly near term and into the medium term as well.

On the other side of the equation with these very strong ag fundamentals, you know, we believe that we're heading into a strong spring application season in North America. Also, not all demand fits into the calendar year. Again, with some of these movements on inventory, we're just looking at the needs of our customers. As we said, throughout 2022, we will look at those needs. We'll look at the evolution of those fundamentals, and we will pace our investments in that ramp up accordingly. Again, looking at 2022, and the movements there, 2023, strong demand, but pacing out those investments. You know, we thought it prudent to take some of our off-ramps, pace them the ramp up of potash production and meet the needs of our customers. That's what we're doing.

You know, these investments are spread across dozens of projects at four mine sites. We do have that flexibility. We do have that optionality, and of course, we'll be watching the signals in the market and from our customers. Just finally say that, you know, in terms of being nimble, you know, we can execute against these capital programs, and we do not have long lead time items here where we, you know, we really need those signposts to be showing up years in advance. In fact, we can watch the signposts in the more near term and again, execute against our capital plans and ramp up potash production.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from Jacob Bout with CIBC. Please go ahead.

Jacob Bout (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)

Good morning. My question is just on this cautiousness that you've seen in the first quarter, and the risk there could be a snapback in fertilizer markets in the U.S. spring season. You know, we get into some supply chain issues and overheated markets.

Ken Seitz (President and CEO)

Yeah. Good morning, Jacob. Yes, that is exactly what we're seeing at the moment. You can point to nitrogen where we typically have a seasonal lull this time of the year. We see that in potash as well. Recognizing, of course, that when farmers get out on the field, there's going to need to be a significant amount of volume that needs to move through the channel. At the moment, yes, we see cautious buying. The reality is that the fundamentals have improved for the farmer because the backdrop on the ag fundamental side is strong and of course, fertilizer prices have come off so that affordability is improved. I'll hand it over to Mark Thompson, our Chief Commercial Officer, to provide some more color.

Mark Thompson (EVP and CCO)

Sure. hi, good morning, Jacob. I'll maybe make a few comments and then perhaps have Jeff talk about the inventory positioning and network at the retail level as well. From a producer standpoint, I think what you pointed out is absolutely correct. We have seen caution in the channel. It's a little bit different on potash and nitrogen. I think from a potash standpoint, the inventory destocking process we expected to see in North America, particularly, and Brazil through the end of Q4, really did take place. From a North America standpoint, we saw inventories as we assessed them at the customer level, down in that range of 15%-20%. I think Jeff and the Nutrien Ag Solutions team could corroborate that trend. Our Winter Fill Program that was put out early in 2023 had a good response.

We filled about 70% of the program, which would be modestly below historical levels. I think that reflects the overall caution that you're talking about. Of course, Jeff will be able to talk about the expectation. We do see strong grower demand coming. Really there is this cautious approach because of price volatility that's delayed some of that purchasing. Assuming that we do see strong fundamentals emerge, will put a strain on the supply chain. I think this is an area in potash, in particular, where Nutrien is exceptionally advantaged. Our terminal network and distribution assets as it relates to potash are really unparalleled in the North American market. We are set up very well to deliver when that spring demand breaks. I think the same would be true from a nitrogen standpoint.

In nitrogen, the channel is probably about average purchases relative to historical levels. Again, we have seen some grower caution. Our network is positioned to meet that demand. We've got a good portion of the second quarter order book that we've intentionally have uncommitted at this point to sell into what we expect to be firmer fundamentals. Notwithstanding the caution you've talked about, we think we are very well-positioned. I'll pass it to Jeff to maybe comment on the retail level position.

Jeff Tarsi (President and EVP)

Yeah. I would, you know, I would obviously agree with comments both by Ken Seitz and Mark Thompson. If I look at our inventory levels today in our Nutrien Ag Solutions business, you know, we're sitting a bit below where we would historically be on inventories, and you'd have to go through it by product, particularly with potash. I always go back and when I look at the fundamentals and what I think what's gonna be demand-driven, I go back first to prepay in the fourth quarter. We had very strong prepay from our customer base in the fourth quarter. If I, if I look at our seed book today, our seed book is very strong as well. What I'm absolutely convinced of is, you know, we're gonna plant a big crop globally around these commodities.

We also have the ability to look. We do extensive soil testing, so we've got ability to look in and see what these soil fertility levels look like. If I look at a product like potash, I see about 40% of those tests that say we're below some standard of where we need to be in order to maximize yields. To say all of that, Jacob, it probably gets back to where you started this thing, is that we anticipate a lot of buying for the spring. You're right, we could have some supply chain constraints if product doesn't start moving. From my perspective within our retail organization, I feel strongly because we've invested very heavily in our supply chain.

Growers just been a little bit slower in a lower cost environment to come in and commit, particularly as it relates to nutritional.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from Joshua Spector with UBS. Please go ahead.

Lucas Beaumont (Associate Analyst in Research Division)

Good morning. This is Lucas Beaumont on for Josh. Just focusing on potash still. Could you just let us know how much of your first quarter order book is locked in currently, and what price is it sort of locked in at at the moment? Are you expecting any sequential move up in pricing from where it is now kind of baked into your guidance? Thanks.

Ken Seitz (President and CEO)

Yeah, good morning. I'll just say that, just echo what Mark shared about our fill program, where in North America we were 70% subscribed and feel good about our position here in the first quarter. Offshore Canpotex is well committed into the first quarter. We won't comment on prices. We don't comment on prices. You know, we're guiding this year to 13.8 million-14.6 million tons for the year. We do believe it's a supply-constrained market, we're saying shipments of 63 million-67 million tons again this year depending on how the year unfolds and certainly depending on the timing of India and China contracts, again, we're preserving capacity, sales capacity of 50 million tons, again, depending on the timing of some of these settlements.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from Joel Jackson with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Joel Jackson (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Hi. Good morning, everyone. I was interested in your comments on retail expecting similar margins in 2023 as you did a couple years ago, and it's about $350 million contraction retail earnings in 2023. Can you talk about when I think of that $350 million lower earnings in 2023, how does that shake out for commodity prices versus volume versus other things, and I guess partially offset by some of the M&A you've already done? How do you get retail margins that are in line with the last couple of years in a lower commodity pricing environment where you're not getting inventory gains?

Ken Seitz (President and CEO)

Yeah. Good morning, Joel, and thanks for that. Yeah. You know, we have been growing our retail business both organically and inorganically, and so that's certainly reflected in our view of 2023. As you say, we're also expecting a bit of a reset as it relates to nutritionals, as it relates to fertilizer and those fertilizer margins, but also as it relates to crop chemistry. I'll hand it over to Jeff Tarsi to provide more color.

Jeff Tarsi (President and EVP)

Yeah, Joel Jackson. Most of our rise up last year in retail was in basically in the North American market. As Pedro Farah talked about in his commentary, we expect a reset on margins in our North American. Almost all of our reset will come in our North American market. It'll basically fall in two buckets. It'll fall in the crop chemistry bucket and the fertilizer bucket. Basically, what we're doing is we're going back and anchoring ourself to 2021. If I look at both of those two categories, like on a margin per ton basis for fertilizer, we're gonna be slightly above where we were in 2021 for our projections for 2023. Our crop chemistry gross margin is gonna be basically in line with where we were in 2021.

Obviously, as you talked about earlier, we caught some appreciation in both those two categories over, really over the last 18 months. We don't expect to see that same appreciation in 2023. As Ken talked about, you know, with things that we do, we're constantly trying to grow our share of our proprietary business. Last year, we had an exceptional proprietary year. Our revenue was up over $400 million. Our gross margins were up just under $175 million. New product launches contributed about $10 million of Adjusted EBITDA. What I'm excited about when we look into 2023, and again, the ability to expand our margins past historicals is, you know, we'll be launching six new plant nutrition products in Australia.

We'll be launching six new crop protection products in the U.S. and seven new products in Brazil. We're gonna continue to emphasize our proprietary products. Look, our margins are gonna still be, in my opinion, very attractive, from a Nutrien standpoint, and from a crop protection standpoint, again, when you look at it on an historical basis. We expanded our margins last year in plant nutrition, substantially, and we look to continue that growth in 2023 as well. We have a lot of levers that we can pull as it relates to that.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from Ben Isaacson with Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Ben Isaacson (Stock Analyst)

Thank you very much. Good morning. My question is about global potash demand. We had 70 million tons in 2021, about 60 million tons in 2022, and you're calling for about a rebound about halfway. The question is, why aren't we getting back to 70 million tons? From what it sounds like, channel inventories, or, and/or soil inventories are either average or below normal. Farmer affordability for potash has improved, not just because potash prices are lower, but because nitrogen and phosphate prices are lower as well. We had light demand last year. We had a drought last year. You know, you talk about caution and deferral, that's more of a timing issue. Why are we not getting back to the full 70 million tons?

If it's just because it's supply constrained, then why are you going down from the 50 million tons you talked about in November to, you know, roughly 14 million tons now? Thank you.

Ken Seitz (President and CEO)

Yeah. No. Those are great observations, Ben. Thank you. We would agree with you that if we look at the unconstrained demand that we would see on the planet, given this very strong backdrop that we see with the ag fundamentals and certainly the way farmer affordability has improved with the softening of price, that on an unconstrained basis, we would be at 70 million tons. We do believe, given these pretty extreme supply side challenges, that the shipments this year would be in the 63 million-67 million ton range. The reality is that this doesn't all fit perfectly within the calendar year, if we look at 2023 and we look at inventory levels around some of these major markets, certainly we've seen destocking in North America and Brazil.

We are watching inventory levels in China, which would be about 2.3 million tons today. Certainly getting below historical averages. In India, for example, where for all intents

Inventory levels are low, but yet at the same time still haven't seen, here we are, into the middle of February, haven't seen a contract. As that contract is delayed, we look at, you know, 63 million-67 million tons, 70 million tons unconstrained. It just doesn't fit within the calendar year. You know, we're working hard now to plan our volumes to meet the needs of our customers here in 2023, but of course, looking into 2024 now as well.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from Steve Byrne with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Steve Byrne (Managing Director and Research Analyst)

Yes, thank you. So Jeff Tarsi, you mentioned an increase in soil testing, and 40% of them were below adequate levels in potash. My question for you is, for those growers that are looking at data like that, are they likely to return to maybe a normal application rate? Could they potentially go, you know, higher than where they were in 2021? Would you expect a similar situation in other parts of the world? You know, maybe tap into your channel down in Brazil and in Australia. Are you seeing this trend of, you know, below normal potash levels in soil in other regions as well?

Jeff Tarsi (President and EVP)

Yes, Steve, good question. Obviously, I have a lot more visibility into those results in North America as opposed to Brazil, because as you would know, we own one of the largest soil analytic labs in North America, Waypoint Analytical. We have a lot of data that we can pile through to look at that. We provided, interestingly enough, we provided that data for each of our divisions and even down to the county level, where we can assimilate this data. I think, you know, if I look back to the fall, Steve, we actually had a very strong fall application of both P and K in North America, and I was quite satisfied with the rates that growers were using. I do agree, as these products become more economical.

Look, we had a lot of product banked in the soil the last couple of years. You got the last three falls have all three been record falls in North America. So I think as the product becomes more affordable, I would expect to see some rates increase across these products. I was doing some math today and, you know, these growers, you know, they're spending upward to $150 an acre on their hybrid corn varieties, and these varieties are very temperamental with the NPK levels. I don't think growers are gonna risk any yield from that standpoint. As we get into Brazil, you talked about Brazil, and as you know, those soils are not able to bank nutrients like we can across the Corn Belt there.

It's more of a just-in-time market. Ken and I and Pedro were just in Brazil last week, and we had a chance to visit with some growers as well as our people as well. You know, the Safrinha season looks strong. It's a little bit slower, but it's slower because weather, as it's related to weather. Again, the economics and the fundamentals are strong there. I think the growers will give the crop all the juice it needs to maximize out on yields.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Adam Samuelson (VP and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Yes. Thank you. Good morning, everyone. A question on potash demand and really outside of North America and really thinking in the different parts of Asia and the view you have on channel inventories in the key importing regions of Southeast Asia, in China, in India, to that would inform kinda importer behavior that seems to be kinda mirroring the kinda slowness and tentativeness that you're seeing or have seen in the U.S., in Brazil. A second question, if I may, just on the growth investments that you alluded to for the year. There was a discussion on the retail side about digital.

I'm just hoping you could just elaborate on what that actually encompasses, especially where that would seem to be a capital expense as opposed to an OpEx. Thank you.

Ken Seitz (President and CEO)

Yep. Good morning, Adam. Thank you for the question. You know, we can certainly do the market-by-market discussion about inventories and yes, seeing them destocking again in Brazil, U.S., and then we can talk about India, China and Southeast Asia. I'll hand it over to Mark Thompson to provide some color there, and then we can go to the digital question where, yes, we are seeing substantive growth on digital as it relates to putting dollars through that platform and certainly the type of investments we're making there. Mark, over to you.

Mark Thompson (EVP and CCO)

Yeah. Thanks, Ken. Good morning, Adam. Maybe just to cover a bit of ground that Ken and I have talked about already. Again, I think from a Brazil and a North America standpoint, the destocking process throughout Q4 did take place, I think largely as we had anticipated in November. We've talked about North America estimating down 15%-20%.

In the channel relative to the end of 2021 at the end of 2022. From a Brazil standpoint, we estimate that Brazil would have ended flat to slightly up after a historic surge in first half imports and an equally historic drop in second half imports into Brazil. We estimate Brazil probably ended between 1.8 million-1.9 million tons at the end of 2022 in inventories relative to about 1.7 million tons. We've done some deep dive studies on that market to corroborate that number. Obviously have seen really good engagement to start the year in Brazil and some stabilization as well. To your question on India, China, Southeast Asia, other markets, maybe we can just do a little bit of around the world.

I think from an India standpoint, again, India ended the year at historically tight inventory levels. As a result, we expect they're gonna be the first to settle relative to China from a contract standpoint. Their inventory levels were about 130,000 metric tons to port, which would be about flat to 2021. Again, we view the impetus as being strong for India to settle a contract in the relatively near term. From a Chinese perspective, we estimate that China would have ended with just over 2.5 million tons at the end of 2022. That would have been up modestly from the prior year but again below average levels. We also estimate that those inventories have been drawn down to some degree. We now estimate they're about 2.3 million tons.

I think importantly in all this from a Chinese perspective, their strategic reserves were drawn down by about 1 million tons in 2022. We have the view that those would need to be rebuilt throughout 2023. I think important to the inventory equation in China is also production. We view that Chinese production levels in 2022 at around 7 million tons are likely not repeatable, so we expect that number to drop as well in 2023. Again, I think, a good backdrop from an inventory standpoint in China. Then just to round things out in Southeast Asia, our view would be, currently that Malaysian inventories are relatively balanced and in a good spot. Indonesia is very close.

We see Indonesia probably coming into balance here over the next couple of weeks, in fact, and we expect very good engagement from both of these markets as we get into Q2. Of course, the catalyst for this will be continued movement of product and liquidity in Brazil, which we've seen, but also the settlement of contracts, which will provide price discovery for these international markets to begin to pull. As Ken said, all of these things don't fit perfectly into a calendar year, but we do believe that once we see contract settlement and this engagement reemerge, that we are going to hit a very strong run rate for global potash demand. I'll just pass on question on digital capital expenditures.

Jeff Tarsi (President and EVP)

Yeah, thanks. We do continue to invest in our digital platform, and we think that our digital platform is essential to the total platform that we run in our Ag Solutions business. You know, if I look at our focus today, which is centered around becoming the most customer-focused, being able to provide the most customer-focused sustainable solutions to our growers, and digital is gonna play an absolute central part in the decision-making process. This requires a lot of data generation, and it requires a lot of data mining.

You know, look, for instance, if I look at our seed shelf and the growth projections that we have around seed, a lot of that growth, an enviable part of growing our share in that seed business is gonna be around mining data, collecting data, and being able to provide that data back to our growers in a really timely fashion. I've just finished a tour around our complete Ag Solutions business basically since the second week of January, nowhere have we been, and not any farmer group have we talked to, that the discussion has not been around sustainability and sustainable solutions going forward in agriculture. I can tell you that you're not gonna have a sustainability platform without a digital platform.

You gotta have it to be able to collect your data. You gotta have it to be able to validate that data as well on a crop basis. We do feel very strongly about this, and we're very committed to it, and very committed to it being a central part of our platform.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from Christopher Parkinson with Mizuho. Please go ahead.

Christopher Parkinson (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Very helpful chart on page, you know, 25 in terms of your expectations, you know, for production across the various geographies. Could you sit on a little bit more on how this flows into your high and the low end of your, you know, potash guidance in terms of, you know, if demand starts, you know, trending towards the high end of your, let's say, global range, Are those tons mostly gonna be coming, I assume, presumably from Canpotex? What, you know, what would kind of be your baseline expectation for the growth in North America once inventories normalize, you know, between you and the other North American producers? Just any general framework on how that flows into the high and the low end of the potash guidance would be very helpful. Thank you so much.

Ken Seitz (President and CEO)

You bet, Chris. Yes. Thank you for the question. we have, the big, the big supply challenges are the ones we talk about, and that's, you know, putting a range around we believe could happen in 2023 out of Russia and certainly out of Belarus with the nimble, flexible supply being our own. I'll hand it over to Jason Newton to provide more detail.

Jason Newton (Chief Economist and Head of Market Research)

Thanks. Morning, Chris. Yeah, as we look at the range that we have for potash shipments globally, the top end of that range in particular is restricted by the level of potash production globally. That's really what caps that out. If we look at the range we have for shipments from Belarus and Russia, they respectively expect to be down 40%-60% and 15%-30% versus 2021 levels. That really constrains the top end of the shipment range.

Similarly, as we look throughout that range, given that wide level of uncertainty in shipments from that Russia and Belarus, there's a number of scenarios that can develop within that range that leads to the potential for higher production from Nutrien as a swing producer within that level. It really continues to be a supply-constrained environment in 2022, notwithstanding the slow start to the year, which also limits the production. As we look forward, and we show in the slide deck as well, the range of shipments going forward, we don't see a potential midpoint of that range of shipments getting back to trend levels until 2025.

If we look back over the last 20 years, there hasn't been a period of more than two consecutive years where shipments have fallen below trend levels. If supply becomes available, we'd expect pent-up demand to emerge.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from Jeffrey Zekauskas with J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.

Jeffrey Zekauskas (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Thanks very much. You commented on soil testing for potash in the United States. Did you also look at soil testing for phosphate? That is phosphate under applied? In the first quarter of 2023, have you hedged your gas in the United States and in Canada, or is it more free-flowing, and you can get the benefits of the gas decreases?

Jason Newton (Chief Economist and Head of Market Research)

Good. With respect to soil sampling and phosphate levels in the soil, short answer is yes. We do look at that, and I'll hand it over to Jeff Tarsi to provide that color. To talk about hedging for gas, I'll hand it over to Pedro.

Jeff Tarsi (President and EVP)

Yeah, Look, when we're doing the soil testing, we're not only testing for NPK, we're testing for micronutrients as well, in the soil. So they're very comprehensive testing. We do see a trend that's similar to the potash. The potash kind of stuck out to me a bit. Phosphate reduction wasn't quite as much, as we saw across those states, but still we saw, you know, a significant amount that were under some desirable level there. But again, we're doing this testing, and we're writing scientific prescriptions for the crop and the variety and the hybrid and such. We obviously, we could take these tests and do a lot with as far as building our solutions out, going forward. This is not something new. We've been doing this testing for a number of years.

We've seen the testing increase over the last three or four years 'cause growers more akin, our agronomists more akin, again, to making science-based decisions on what we're delivering.

Pedro Farah (EVP and CFO)

Maybe, Jeff, this is Pedro. I'm gonna comment a little bit on the hedging from a financial standpoint. I'll pass it to Trevor to talk about the commercial standpoint too, because we are essentially both financially and commercially hedged in terms of gas. From a financial standpoint, we have been, our hedges have been somewhat immaterial. I would say less than 10% have been flowing through that. We see greater opportunities to hedge at this point from a financial standpoint, since we are reaching asymptote levels, kind of a low levels here. We're looking more closely into data at this point in time. They have not been that material up until now. I'll pass it on to Trevor because a good portion of our production is hedged, but commercially so.

Jason Newton (Chief Economist and Head of Market Research)

Yeah. Thanks for the question. In high level, we're in the range of about 20% that's naturally hedged with some of the industrial contracts that we have, both in North America and obviously in Trinidad. As Pedro alluded, with some of the seasonably low pricing that we're seeing right now, both in North America and US, we're evaluating opportunities to hedge and/or lock in some of that position here going into the remainder of 2023.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from Michael Tupholme with TD Securities. Please go ahead.

Michael Tupholme (Director in Equity Research)

Thank you. Ken, I know you said you don't intend to comment too much on pricing, when we look at the 2023 guidance you've provided, are you able to talk at all about what you've assumed in terms of realized pricing for both potash and nitrogen, at the high end versus the low end of the guidance ranges you provided?

Ken Seitz (President and CEO)

Thanks, Michael. I can speak in general terms to say that we're sort of looking at potash pricing where it is today. You can point to, for example, you know, sort of $500-$520 in Brazil and thinking about that as a bit of a benchmark and sort of flat pricing, let's say, throughout 2023 from those levels. Obviously, with all the dynamics we just talked about, we could see volatility around some of those numbers, but that would be our assumption today. As it relates to nitrogen, you know, we do expect firming in price from the levels that we're seeing today, and it's for all the reasons that we talked about.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

William Tang (Equity Research Associate)

Hi, guys. This is Will Tang on for Vincent. Thanks for taking my question. You've guided 2023 down across all your major business segments with the exception of phosphate at the midpoint. I'm wondering if you could help me bridge between 2022 - 2023. What's driving the relative strength there? You know, especially as it looks like the underlying, you know, commodity fertilizer prices are going to be down on a YoY basis.

Ken Seitz (President and CEO)

Yeah. Well, I think, what I would say, Will, is just what we've talked about on this call, and that is that, you know, the big impact has been we've seen just the softening in commodity prices from peak 2022 levels. If we're comparing across our business, our crop nutrient business, potash, nitrogen, I mean, that's the story is on net back. If we're talking about margins in retail, it's really the reset on crop nutrients and crop chemistry. It is offset by higher volumes across on the NPK side, it is offset by higher volumes. Again, we have this net back effect. Finally, I'll just say, again, we do have this timing thing going on where not everything fits within the calendar year.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from Steve Hansen with Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Steve Hansen (Managing Director and Equity Analyst)

Oh, yes, good morning. Thanks for the time. Question for perhaps Ken or Mark. I was just hoping you could speak to the opportunity for continued synergy extraction from the integrated business model that really does define Nutrien now. We obviously saw an intense focus on synergies, in the early years post-merger. Just curious on whether you could comment on there's another round of synergies to come or whether that's, you know, more of a secondary focus at this point. Thanks.

Ken Seitz (President and CEO)

Steve, thank you for the question. Yes, we certainly do see opportunity. In fact, we created the structure in 2022 to establish, you know, a commercial unit within Nutrien that Mark Thompson, our Chief Commercial Officer, is heading up. Yeah, that is, we are seeing opportunity there, and that's evolving. I'll hand it over to Jeff and to Mark to talk about exactly some of those opportunities we're seeing, and as you say, Steve, what the synergies might be.

Jeff Tarsi (President and EVP)

I'll make a few comments, and then I'll turn it over to Mark. Mark and I have worked very close together over the last several months. You know, from a retail perspective, I mean, the two buckets that I look in are, number one, logistics and what can we do to take some cost out from a logistical side of it. In a lot of cases, both sides of the organization are using some of the same carriers at different rates. How do we get more efficient? From that standpoint, how do we touch product less than we do today? Overlaying a footprint of our assets together from a terminal storage standpoint, and how do we better utilize those assets?

I can't think of anybody better than Mark to dig through those opportunities with myself. That's what we plan on doing going forward. Mark, I'll let you get in a little bit more granular into some of that.

Mark Thompson (EVP and CCO)

Sure. Thanks, Jeff. Good morning, Steve. Thanks for the question. I wholeheartedly agree with everything that Jeff said. I mean, we both believe, and I think the executive team believes there is more opportunity in the integrated model to continue to extract value for shareholders and really develop competitive advantages for the company. I see those, as Jeff said, falling into a few different categories. I think 3 primarily. I think the first is really on optimizing the procurement sourcing relationship, and sales relationship within the company. As the retail network continues to grow globally throughout Nutrien, as we continue to expand volumes in our production business, it does open up new opportunities to look at how we sell and procure within the company to optimize value throughout the cycles.

I think a great example of that is in the fourth quarter that we just saw in a historically volatile period. Now I'm looking at our supply chain holistically and being able to forward place product was something that the Nutrien Ag Solutions and Nutrien team worked on to ensure that we're maximizing channel margin for the company. You know, I think a second category that Jeff mentioned and explained very well is around network optimization, TD&L vendor management, and all these areas that we can really optimize the way product is moving around the network and look at storage and distribution across the Nutrien enterprise. Then I think lastly, a real opportunity around specialty products growth.

I think Jeff has talked this morning on the call about really the evolution in thinking at the grower level and the need for specialty nutrition and more sustainable products. We've got great products inside of Nutrien like ESN and MAP-MST, and really continuing to work together on a network basis to put those products in our customers' hands. This is something that's ongoing over time, and I think can continue to add value to the company as we move forward.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from P.J. Juvekar with Citi. Please go ahead.

Patrick Cunningham (Senior Analyst)

Hi, this is Patrick coming in one for PJ. Good morning. What are your expectations for seed prices this season? For your own Dyna-Gro seeds, what's the market share currently and any expectation to grow market share this year? Thank you.

Ken Seitz (President and CEO)

Yeah. Thank you for the question. Yeah, we're certainly constructive on seed and, you know, I'll hand it over to Jeff to talk about that.

Jeff Tarsi (President and EVP)

Yeah. I'd say that overall and year we just finished in 2022, we had about a 30 basis point increase in market share across our total seed portfolio. If I look at the seed price book for 2023, we've seen somewhere between, let's say depending on the crop, somewhere between a 6%-10% increase in seed prices YoY. Being reflective that in the 2022 season, most seed companies chose not to have any price increase at all, so we were expecting an increase for 2023 and again, somewhere between that 6%-10% standpoint. Look, Dyna-Gro continues to be an integral part of our seed strategy, and we continue to work to strengthen our portfolio, either through proprietary breeding or through our strategic relationships we have with our suppliers.

We had some major successes this past year, particularly with rice, which is our Dyna-Gro DG263L. That's a proprietary germplasm bred within our business, and we've had a lot of success there. We continue to have success with our Proven Seed canola brand and you mentioned Dyna-Gro, we would think our share increases would be in line with what we saw across our broad portfolio with it.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from Richard Garchitorena with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Richard Garchitorena (Associate Analyst)

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Yeah, just quickly on the potash strategy, I just wanted to touch on the decision to delay the ramp up to 18 million tons, potentially by 2026. Is your ramp up, is it based on the assumption that you get unconstrained demand of 70 million tons at some point? As a follow-up, if we see, you know, things continuing to remain constrained, you know, in the 63 million-67 million tons, can you continue to defer the ramp up, I guess? Is there any issues related to that, you know, in terms of equipment orders or site preparation, that type of thing? Thanks.

Ken Seitz (President and CEO)

Yeah. Thank you for the question, Richard. I'll start and then I'll hand it over to Chris Reynolds just to talk about optionality that we have as it relates to the ramp up. It's just to say that, and just echoing Jason Newton's comments earlier, we believe that we are going to be in a supply constrained environment here for a few years. What's the reason for that? Well, we do see demand growing. I mean, for all the reasons we've talked about, the fundamentals are strong. You know, we back cast over the last 20 years, potash demand is been growing at over 2.5% CAGR.

In an environment where demand is continues to grow, unconstrained demand continues to grow, but yet we have these supply side challenges, we will be in a supply constrained market. Hence, our view of meeting the needs of our customers ramping up potash production. I'll hand it over to Chris Reynolds just to talk about, again, some of the optionality that we have as it relates to the nimbleness of our ramp up capital program.

Chris Reynolds (President and EVP)

Yeah. Good morning, Richard. Thanks for the question. Yeah, as you've mentioned, and as we mentioned last year when we first announced this ramp, that we had already built in numerous off ramps that we could trigger if market condition changed a little bit from our assumptions. You know, this plan to ramp up 18 million tons involves dozens of projects, mainly across four of our potash sites and equipment that's mainly related to underground operations, so mining machines and conveyor belts. Yes, we these are not, as Ken mentioned in his opening remarks, these are not long lead time items. Again, if things were to change materially in terms of timing, we could delay the purchasing of some of this equipment.

Again, the longer term outlook that we have and the need that we believe the global market is gonna have for 18 million tons for Nutrien is still intact, and we're really just delivering on what we'd already explained when we first announced the ramp.

Operator (participant)

There are no further questions at this time. Please proceed.

Jeff Holshouser (VP of Investor Relations)

Thank you, operator, and thanks everyone for joining us today. The investor relation team is available for any follow-up calls. Have a great day.

Operator (participant)

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating and ask that you please disconnect your lines.