Q3 2024 Earnings Summary
- Northern Trust's "One Northern Trust" strategy is enhancing collaboration across businesses, aiming to drive higher organic growth rates by providing integrated solutions to clients ** **.
- The company is investing aggressively at the upper end of the market, particularly in ultra high net worth clients, expecting to achieve better incremental profitability and shareholder value ** **.
- Northern Trust has achieved significant client wins, such as the expanded relationship with Artemis, providing comprehensive services including execution, custody, fund administration, and more, demonstrating their ability to secure more profitable growth .
- The company's stock has lost its premium valuation compared to peers, raising concerns about its business mix, execution, and overall strategy.
- Significant management turnover, with multiple leadership changes occurring simultaneously, could lead to execution risks and uncertainty in implementing growth strategies.
- Lack of clear, externally measurable metrics to assess the success of the One Northern Trust strategy makes it difficult for investors to gauge progress and effectiveness.
-
Expense Growth Outlook
Q: How will expense growth be managed going forward?
A: Management acknowledges that expense growth is exceeding targets, currently running above 6% this year. They are committed to driving expense growth down, aiming for a rate below 5% in 2025. Organizational changes, including centralizing operations and focusing on operational efficiencies, are expected to help reduce expenses . Investments in technology and resiliency will continue but may taper off late next year. -
Net Interest Income Guidance
Q: Will NII continue to grow from current levels?
A: Despite positive NII results this quarter, management anticipates a slight decline in NII in the fourth quarter due to expected rate cuts . NII is expected to be in the range of $550 to $560 million in Q4, slightly down from $569 million this quarter . -
Organizational Changes Impact
Q: How will recent leadership changes affect operations?
A: The organizational changes align with the strategy to strengthen the foundation, optimize growth, and drive productivity. A new COO role has been created to enhance operational excellence and scalable growth. These changes are expected to improve operational efficiency without significantly increasing expenses . -
Capital Return Plans
Q: Will elevated share buybacks continue?
A: The company has been stepping up buybacks, supported by a strong capital position with a CET1 ratio of 12.6%. Management expects buybacks to remain elevated but will be thoughtful in their approach, potentially allowing the CET1 ratio to modestly decline as they monetize additional Visa shares over the next year or two . -
Wealth Management Growth
Q: What are the targets for Wealth Management growth?
A: Management aims for organic growth in Wealth Management of 2.5% to 3%, higher than in recent years . They plan to invest more aggressively at the upper end of the market, leveraging their strengths with ultra-high-net-worth clients . -
Asset Sensitivity Position
Q: Is the balance sheet asset-sensitive?
A: The company currently has a slight asset sensitivity due to actions taken over the past couple of years. With the securities portfolio shortened, NII will be influenced by changes in interest rates, facing potential headwinds if rates decline . -
Deposit Trends and Costs
Q: How are deposit trends affecting NII?
A: The underlying nature of deposits has improved, with more attractively priced deposits replacing thinly priced ones. Deposit levels have been stable, and the company did not experience the typical seasonal decline. -
Loan Growth Outlook
Q: What is the outlook for loan growth?
A: Loan balances decreased this quarter, but management does not see this as a strategic trend. They are not actively trying to grow or shrink the loan book; loan growth will align with growth in the overall client franchise, particularly in Wealth Management. -
Hamilton Lane Partnership
Q: What is the significance of the Hamilton Lane collaboration?
A: The partnership with Hamilton Lane enhances their asset servicing business by providing better data and analytics on private investments for large institutional clients. This addresses clients' increasing allocations to private markets and alternatives. -
One Northern Trust Strategy
Q: How is the One Northern Trust initiative measured?
A: Success is measured by increased collaboration across businesses, leading to higher organic growth rates. The strategy involves breaking down silos and delivering comprehensive solutions to clients, ultimately reflected in financial performance.
Research analysts covering NORTHERN TRUST.