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    Nu Holdings (NU)

    NU Q2 2025: Private Payroll Loans Default Rates at 10–18%

    Reported on Aug 15, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$12.01Last close (Aug 14, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$13.40Open (Aug 15, 2025)
    Price Change
    $1.39(+11.57%)
    • Enhanced Leadership & Global Expansion: The management is strengthening with strategic hires—a new CTO, VP for Public Policy, and design head—to drive digital innovation and position the firm for international growth.
    • Innovative Credit Underwriting & Robust Origination: The adoption of new AI-enabled models and improved underwriting practices is boosting unsecured lending and credit card portfolio performance, supporting sustained market share gains despite seasonal headwinds.
    • Robust Deposit Growth & Customer Engagement: Increased deposits driven by enhanced product features and higher customer share of wallet, particularly in Brazil and evolving strategies in Mexico, bolster a resilient funding base for future growth.
    • Collateral Quality in Private Payroll Loans: Concerns were raised about the private payroll product where early data showed first payment defaults ranging between 10% and 18%, indicating potential credit quality issues if collateral quality does not improve.
    • Vulnerability to Operational Disruptions: The transcript highlighted a 50% drop in INSS-related secured loan originations due to system disruptions. This operational risk could signal broader vulnerabilities in the credit portfolio during periods of system instability.
    • Asset Quality and Macroeconomic Risks: The noted increase in stage three formation and seasonal delinquencies, coupled with cautious underwriting assumptions anticipating worse future credit cycles, may foreshadow pressure on asset quality if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate.
    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Credit Risk Management & Underwriting Practices

    Q1 2025 emphasized disciplined credit risk management and conservative underwriting with detailed stress-testing. Q4 2024 highlighted a conservative philosophy and incorporation of adverse macroeconomic scenarios. Q3 2024 focused on strategic growth with stress testing of unsecured credit and careful risk assessment.

    In Q2 2025 the discussion reiterated robust credit risk management, emphasizing advanced AI-enabled models, improved predictive analytics, and rigorous stress testing to keep all cohorts NPV positive.

    Consistent focus with enhanced technological integration and stricter stress testing, reinforcing a conservative yet forward‑looking approach.

    International Expansion & Latin America Markets

    Q1 2025 and Q4 2024 covered significant market opportunities and growth in Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia with strong customer and deposit growth. Q3 2024 emphasized customer additions and deposit surges in Mexico and Colombia.

    Q2 2025 reinforced the importance of Latin America with strong market momentum in Mexico and Colombia and underscored strategic leadership hires (e.g., Campos Neto) to support both regional dominance and future global ambitions.

    Continued prioritization of Latin American markets with an added leadership focus that signals readiness for further global expansion.

    Sustained Lending Portfolio Growth

    Q1 2025, Q3 2024, and Q4 2024 highlighted robust growth in secured and unsecured lending as well as credit card portfolios, with significant year‑over‑year increases and strategic portfolio diversification for unsecured and for secured lending.

    Q2 2025 describes continued strong growth in both unsecured and secured lending segments, with high origination figures and expected recovery in disrupted segments, thereby supporting diverse and sustainable portfolio expansion.

    Sustained high growth with continued diversification across asset classes and expectations of recovery in challenged segments.

    Customer Engagement & Deposit Growth

    Q1 2025 detailed customer additions, high activity rates, and deposit growth driven by optimized product offerings. Q3 2024 and Q4 2024 showcased strong customer engagement via high monthly active user rates and impressive deposit surges across Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia.

    Q2 2025 reaffirmed strong customer engagement with high activity rates and detailed strategies to optimize deposit pricing – notably in Brazil and Mexico – while maintaining competitive funding costs.

    Consistently strong engagement with strategic deposit pricing adjustments highlighting a continuous commitment to deepening customer relationships.

    Emergence of AI-enabled Credit Underwriting

    Minimal mention in earlier periods; Q1 2025 had a brief nod to upgraded models , but Q3 and Q4 2024 did not feature this topic.

    Q2 2025 provided a detailed discussion on the adoption of AI-enabled models, incorporating traditional machine learning, neural networks, and predictive AI to enhance credit underwriting, credit limits, and utilization rates.

    Emerging as a newer focus; moving from a brief mention in Q1 to a detailed spotlight in Q2 demonstrating a shift toward more data‐driven, scalable credit decisions.

    Diversification into Non‑Financial Verticals

    Q3 2024 and Q4 2024 included discussions on diversification through initiatives like NuMarketplace, NuTravel, and NuCel to broaden the company’s ecosystem.

    Q1 2025 and Q2 2025 did not feature any discussion on diversification into non‑financial verticals, with no mention of telecom, travel, or marketplace initiatives in the available excerpts [N/A].

    Diminished discussion relative to previous periods; the focus has shifted back to core financial services in recent quarters.

    Enhanced Leadership Through Strategic Hires

    No significant discussion in previous periods (Q1, Q3, Q4) on new leadership hires for driving digital innovation and global expansion [N/A].

    Q2 2025 prominently detailed strategic hires (e.g., Campos Neto, Eric Young, Ethan Eisman) to bolster capabilities in digital innovation and support plans for global expansion.

    Newly emerged focus that signals a strategic pivot toward bolstering leadership to drive next‑generation digital innovation and global ambitions.

    Shifting Sentiment on Credit Quality & Margin/Provision Outlook

    Q1 2025 discussed seasonal increases in delinquencies and a drop in risk‑adjusted NIM, while Q3 2024 and Q4 2024 provided nuance on NPL ratios, provisioning, and margin compression due to shifts in product mix and funding costs.

    Q2 2025 showed slightly improved early‑stage delinquency metrics and emphasized resilient asset quality along with record NIM achievements, despite seasonal effects and macroeconomic caution.

    A cautious yet stabilizing sentiment persists; while margins and provisions remain under pressure, improvements in early delinquencies and stress testing are bolstering confidence.

    Heightened Focus on Credit Quality in Private Payroll & Unsecured Lending

    Q1 2025 was optimistic about private payroll lending as a growth driver, noting its potential with digital advantages and low‑cost structure. Q3 and Q4 2024 did not feature focused discussion on private payroll challenges; unsecured lending quality was discussed more generally [N/A].

    Q2 2025 introduced a more cautious tone regarding private payroll lending due to concerns over untested collateral systems and higher first-payment default rates, while reaffirming conservative underwriting in unsecured lending.

    A shift toward a more cautious and measured approach in emerging private payroll lending, while continuing robust standards in unsecured lending.

    1. Team Changes
      Q: New hires impact international expansion?
      A: Management’s recent leadership additions enhance regulatory insight and technical expertise, positioning Nu for international growth beyond Brazil and solidifying its global competitive aspirations.

    2. Loan Origination
      Q: Why is Q2 loan growth lower?
      A: The team explained that seasonal factors and a shift in product mix—especially temporary headwinds in INSS lending—yielded lower quarter-on-quarter growth, though robust performance in unsecured lines supports a near-term recovery.

    3. Asset Quality
      Q: Is the stage three increase seasonal?
      A: Management clarified that the rise in stage three formations is a seasonal carryover from earlier quarter delinquency trends, with overall asset quality remaining robust.

    4. Revenue Mix
      Q: Optimal fee-credit revenue mix?
      A: The focus is on boosting average revenue per active customer from $12 upward by leveraging credit growth while keeping service costs minimal, aiming to narrow the gap with incumbent banks.

    5. Loans & Deposits
      Q: Are loans and deposits balanced?
      A: Current loan-to-deposit ratios across markets are comfortable, ensuring that robust deposit funding underpins steady credit growth and customer engagement.

    6. Deposit Trends
      Q: What drives Brazil/Mexico deposit changes?
      A: In Brazil, increased customer engagement and share of wallet fuel deposit growth, while in Mexico, strategic rate reductions have stabilized inflows and promise lower funding costs over time.

    7. PIX & Cards
      Q: How are PIX financing and card activity evolving?
      A: PIX financing has rebounded strongly—with over 40% of credit card customers adopting the feature—while flat active card numbers reflect a focus on increasing limits for existing users.

    8. Card Balance Mix
      Q: Will the credit card balance mix change?
      A: The interest-earning installment ratio is expected to remain near 29%, with only modest fluctuations even as PIX financing evolves.

    9. Private Payroll
      Q: When will payroll loans gain traction?
      A: Although early data shows higher default rates and collateral challenges, management is optimistic that, as the product matures similar to public payroll loans, significant growth will follow.

    Research analysts covering Nu Holdings.