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    NUCOR (NUE)

    Q1 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Jan 10, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$174.64Last close (Apr 23, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$175.00Open (Apr 24, 2024)
    Price Change
    $0.36(+0.21%)
    • Pricing pressures are expected to lead to lower results in the second quarter, despite anticipated volume pickups. The CFO stated that, "pricing pressure on both mills and products are expected to give us a little bit lower results in the second quarter."
    • Downstream product volumes and margins are declining, with Q1 starting off slow due to extreme weather and job site delays. The executive mentioned that, "quarter 1 started out a bit slow for us on the product side, driven mainly by some extreme weather and associated job site delays." Additionally, pricing is moderating in this segment. "We're seeing pricing moderating."
    • Cost reductions may be limited going forward, as the company expects costs to have stabilized with minimal further decline. The executive stated, "I don't think that there's a whole lot more decline. So we think that the cost has stabilized."
    1. Q2 Earnings Decline
      Q: Why will earnings decline in Q2 despite seasonal demand?
      A: Management expects a modest earnings decline in Q2 due to pricing pressure on both mills and products, despite volume pickups. Pricing is moderating, particularly in steel mills and downstream products, leading to lower margins. Seasonal demand improvements are insufficient to offset declining prices. They are cautious about calling Q2 the trough but remain optimistic about the year's overall strength.

    2. Share Buyback Cadence
      Q: How will buyback activity proceed given strong cash?
      A: Nucor returned over 130% of earnings to shareholders in Q1. While they won't usually hold $5.5 to $6 billion in cash, future buybacks will be balanced with M&A opportunities. Management emphasizes disciplined capital allocation, returning capital when they can't find value-creating investments.

    3. Plate Market and Brandenburg Ramp-Up
      Q: What's the outlook for the plate market with Brandenburg ramping?
      A: The consumptive plate market remains steady, with strengths in power transmission and bridge work. Imports are increasing, pressuring margins. Brandenburg mill is ramping up as planned, expecting about 0.5 million tons this year, with volumes heavily weighted to the second half.

    4. Downstream Products Margins
      Q: What's happening with joist and deck margins and volumes?
      A: Downstream products started Q1 slow but expect improved volumes in Q2 and Q3 due to seasonal trends. Margins have moderated from historic highs but remain well above pre-pandemic levels. Backlogs are about 25% above pre-pandemic levels, and pricing has stabilized over the last two quarters.

    5. Infrastructure Spending Impact
      Q: How is infrastructure spending affecting bar and plate volumes?
      A: Infrastructure spending is delayed but expected to positively impact demand in coming years. Nucor is well-positioned with new mills in Lexington, NC, and Kingman, AZ. Markets like power transmission and bridge work are strong, but projects from the IIJA are still in early stages.

    6. Data Center Growth
      Q: How will data center growth impact Nucor's products?
      A: Data center construction is projected to grow 12–14% annually over the next 4–5 years. Nucor's recent acquisition of Southwest Steel enhances capabilities to supply products like joist and deck to this sector, contributing to downstream growth. The data center market is estimated to be over $2 billion and growing.

    7. Econiq Volumes and Premiums
      Q: What's the outlook for Econiq volumes and premiums?
      A: Nucor is expanding its Econiq net-zero steel products and can supply over 1 million tons. They are achieving premiums in the U.S. market similar to Europe. Customers like Mercedes-Benz value low carbon emissions, and Nucor can meet varying customer needs with flexible solutions.

    8. Customer Spot Price Index Introduction
      Q: Why introduce the Customer Spot Index?
      A: Responding to customer requests, Nucor aims to provide consistent, reliable, and relevant pricing, reducing volatility and speculative buying. The index offers real-time pricing updated weekly, helping customers make better value decisions and stabilizing the market.

    9. Raw Materials Earnings Improvement
      Q: How will raw materials contribute to Q2 earnings?
      A: Nucor expects improved raw materials earnings due to stabilizing scrap prices and higher DRI volumes. Recycling margins should normalize, and increased DRI production reduces reliance on higher-cost pig iron. DRI plants are performing consistently after extended outages.

    10. Advanced Recycling Technology Impact
      Q: What's the impact of advanced recycling technology?
      A: The new advanced metal recovery plant in Bushnell, Florida, incurred about $9 million in start-up costs in Q1. It enhances nonferrous recovery, contributing to normalized margins in recycling. The plant is nearly fully commissioned; similar expansion may be considered, improving recycling operations.

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