Executive Summary

Q2 2025 revenue of $239.2M and diluted EPS of $0.62 materially beat S&P Global consensus of $165.0M revenue and $0.06 EPS, driven by a $175M BLA-triggered Sanofi milestone and lower OpEx; management reiterated majority of remaining FY25 adjusted revenue will land in Q4 . Revenue*, EPS*
Full-year revenue framework raised to $1.00–$1.05B (from $975M–$1.025B) and combined R&D+SG&A guidance increased to $495–$545M (from $475–$525M) to incorporate the FDA postmarketing commitment (PMC) study with 70% Sanofi reimbursement offset .
BLA approval for Nuvaxovid (U.S.)—the only recombinant protein, non‑mRNA COVID vaccine—triggered the $175M milestone; U.S./EU marketing authorization transfers in Q4 are expected to add $50M in milestones; cash/marketable securities/restricted cash were $628M at 6/30 (pre-collection of the $175M cash) .
Stock reaction catalysts: visible beat vs. estimates*, raised revenue framework, confirmation of PMC cost coverage by Sanofi, and later in the quarter a debt maturity extension via convertible refinancing announced Aug 21 (reduces near‑term refinancing risk) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Regulatory and partnership execution: U.S. BLA approved, triggering $175M milestone; U.S./EU authorization transfers expected in Q4 for another $50M; Sanofi assumes U.S. commercial lead for 2025–2026 season .
- Late‑stage pipeline signal: Phase 3 initial cohort for CIC and stand‑alone flu showed robust immune responses and favorable T‑cell data vs. Fluzone HD; >98% AEs mild/moderate—supportive for partnering .
- Expense discipline: SG&A down 57% YoY and combined R&D+SG&A down 41% YoY as commercialization transitioned to Sanofi and cost actions took hold; net income of $106.5M despite 42% YoY revenue decline, reflecting mix and lower OpEx .
What Went Wrong
- Underlying product sales weak: Nuvaxovid product sales were negative ($2M) in Q2 due to U.S. closeout/returns; product sales fell 52% YoY to $11M, increasing reliance on milestone/licensing .
- Elevated FY25 OpEx guide: Combined R&D+SG&A raised by ~$20M midpoint to include PMC—while reimbursed at ~70%, gross spend still higher in-year, introducing execution and timing risk on reimbursements .
- Visibility on royalties limited: Company cannot guide Sanofi royalties or combo milestones; FY25 framework excludes these components, constraining investor visibility on sustainable revenue beyond milestones .

Financial Results

Headline vs. S&P Global Consensus (Q2 2025)

Metric	Actual	Consensus	Comparison
Revenue ($)	$239,240,000	$165,014,800*	Beat
Diluted EPS ($)	$0.62	$0.056*	Beat

Values marked with * are from S&P Global consensus estimates.

Quarterly Trend – Revenue and Diluted EPS

Metric	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Revenue ($)	$88,311,000	$666,655,000	$239,240,000
Diluted EPS ($)	$(0.51)	$2.93	$0.62

YoY and Key Line Items (Q2 2025 vs Q2 2024)

Metric	Q2 2024	Q2 2025
Total Revenue ($)	$415,484,000	$239,240,000
Cost of Sales ($)	$46,242,000	$15,325,000
R&D Expense ($)	$106,946,000	$79,233,000
SG&A Expense ($)	$101,298,000	$43,612,000
Net Income ($)	$162,381,000	$106,508,000

Revenue Breakdown (Q2 2025 vs Q2 2024)

$ in millions	Q2 2024	Q2 2025
Nuvaxovid Sales	$20	($2)
Supply Sales	$3	$13
Product Sales	$23	$11
Sanofi	$393	$199
Takeda	$0	$27
Other Partners	$0	$2
Licensing, Royalties & Other	$393	$229
Total Revenue	$415	$239

KPI Snapshot

KPI	12/31/2024	6/30/2025
Cash & Cash Equivalents ($)	$530,230,000	$253,744,000
Marketable Securities ($)	$392,888,000	$358,560,000
Restricted Cash ($)	$15,062,000	$15,238,000
Working Capital ($)	$(25,474,000)	$530,374,000
Total Stockholders’ Equity/(Deficit) ($)	$(623,841,000)	$37,625,000

Notes: Receipt of the $175M BLA milestone earned in Q2 is expected in Q3, affecting quarter-end cash timing .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Combined R&D + SG&A ($M)	FY 2025	$475–$525	$495–$545	Raised (higher gross spend due to PMC)
Adjusted Total Revenue ($M)	FY 2025	$975–$1,025	$1,000–$1,050	Raised
Nuvaxovid Product Sales ($M)	FY 2025	$610	$610	Maintained
Adjusted Supply Sales ($M)	FY 2025	$20–$35	$25–$40	Raised
Adjusted Licensing, Royalties & Other ($M)	FY 2025	$345–$380	$365–$400	Raised
Sanofi Supply/Royalties/Combo Milestones	FY 2025	No guidance	No guidance	Maintained (excluded)

PMC Study (context): 2025–2026 total cost $70–$90M, ~70% reimbursed by Sanofi; FY25 impact is +$20M revenue (reimbursement) and +$20M OpEx .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q4’24, Q1’25)	Current Period (Q2’25)	Trend
AI/Technology in R&D	Initiated AI/ML for antigen design and pipeline decisioning	“Applying AI-driven insights” to accelerate candidates; added translational/adjuvant capabilities	Building momentum
Regulatory (BLA/PMC)	Expectation of BLA approval pathway tied to PMC alignment	BLA approved; PMC specified at $70–$90M with ~70% reimbursement; start as early as end of 2025	Positive resolution; execution next
Product Performance (CIC/Flu)	Initial cohort targeted; intent to partner post data	Robust immunogenicity; numerically higher CD4+ T‑cell vs Fluzone HD; >98% AEs mild/mod	Supports partnering
Commercial Transition/Shelf Life	Sanofi to lead 2025–2026; focus on cost takeout	Regulatory filings to improve shelf life to ≥6 months for fall readiness	Execution detail improving
Partnerships/BD (Sanofi, Takeda, MTAs)	Sanofi combo (Fast Track), MTAs expanding; Takeda terms improved	Continued progress; Takeda filing in Japan; >20M R21 doses sold since mid‑2024	Broadening partner traction
Policy/Macro (BARDA)	Pursuing H5N1 funding; public health preparedness	Management sees potential tailwind as policy shifts away from mRNA; continuing BARDA dialogue	Potentially supportive
Capital Structure	N/A	Announced post‑quarter refinancing: extend converts to 2031, $50M new cash	De‑risking maturities

Management Commentary

“This quarter we continued to progress our growth strategy with key achievements including BLA approval for our COVID-19 vaccine, positive data from our COVID-19‑Influenza‑Combination and stand‑alone influenza programs, advancement of our early-stage pipeline, and progression of our partnership strategy.” — John C. Jacobs, CEO .
“We ended the second quarter with over $850 million in cash and receivables, including the $175 million milestone payment from Sanofi… We are raising our prior revenue framework and now expect to achieve adjusted total revenue of between $1,000,000,000 and $1,050,000,000.” — Jim Kelly, CFO .
“The PMC study is anticipated to occur during 2025 and 2026 with a total cost of between 70 and 90 million. Novavax will conduct this study on behalf of Sanofi, and Novavax will be reimbursed 70% of total cost.” — Jim Kelly, CFO .
“We’re applying AI‑driven insights to accelerate candidate development… exploring new formulations and additional ideas to unlock Matrix‑M’s full value.” — John C. Jacobs, CEO .

Q&A Highlights

Fall readiness: BLA approved for JN.1; filings focused on improving shelf‑life (aiming ≥6 months) for the season; Sanofi leads commercialization .
CIC/Flu partnering: Active discussions with multiple potential partners; descriptive Phase 3 cohort data (immunogenicity/safety) intended to inform registrational design with partner .
PMC details and financials: Size ~$70–$90M over 2025–2026; ~70% reimbursed; no anticipated impact on 2025–2026 operating profit profile per management .
Profitability path: Potential non‑GAAP profitability as early as 2027; CFO outlined breakeven math under Sanofi royalty rates and/or combo launch milestone ($225M) .
Platform optionality: Oncology MTAs progressing; goal is partnering/royalty model rather than internal heavy spend .

Estimates Context

Q2 2025 results vs S&P Global: Revenue $239.24M vs $165.01M*; diluted EPS $0.62 vs $0.056*—both beats, driven by $175M Sanofi milestone and lower OpEx .
Prior quarter context: Q1 2025 revenue $666.66M vs $343.85M*; EPS $2.93 vs $1.41*—both beats, largely due to APA terminations ($603M recognized) .
FY 2025/2026 consensus: FY25 revenue $1.0627B*, EPS $2.04*; FY26 revenue $441.94M*, EPS $(0.45)*—FY25 aligns with raised framework ($1.00–$1.05B), FY26 reflects uncertainty on sustainable royalties/milestones .