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    NV5 Global (NVEE)

    Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Mar 7, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$17.43Last close (Feb 20, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$18.71Open (Feb 21, 2025)
    Price Change
    $1.28(+7.34%)
    • Strong organic growth in key sectors, including 25% organic growth in the data center vertical, indicating robust demand and growth potential in essential markets. NV5 expects mid- to high single-digit organic growth across all sectors.
    • Record backlog of $904 million entering 2025, representing 88% of the low-end revenue guidance, providing strong visibility and confidence in achieving future growth targets. This is higher than the historical standard of 65%, demonstrating a solid foundation for revenue projections.
    • Initiatives to expand EBITDA margins by 150 basis points in 2025, focusing on cost efficiencies, increased utilization, and reducing administrative costs, which are expected to improve profitability. These efforts include lowering indirect labor, optimizing real estate expenses, and leveraging scale to enhance margins.
    • High unbilled receivables and increased DSOs: The company's days sales outstanding (DSO) for unbilled receivables have reached 42 days, a level not seen before, due to billing milestones that do not align with work performed. This could indicate potential cash flow challenges if not addressed promptly.
    • Ambitious EBITDA margin improvement targets: NV5 aims to improve EBITDA margins by 150 basis points in 2025 through reducing administrative costs. Achieving this target may be challenging given the higher revenue base and previous impacts from inflation and acquisition integration.
    • Heavy reliance on Geospatial segment growth: The company's growth projections depend on the Geospatial segment achieving 10%-11% organic growth. Overreliance on this segment could pose risks if growth slows due to market saturation or increased competition.
    MetricYoY ChangeReason

    Total Revenue

    +14% ( )

    Total revenue increased from 215,497 thousand USD to 246,515 thousand USD, driven by an expansion in the top line that builds on previous modest revenue levels, likely due to continued acquisitions and organic growth initiatives that built on the prior period’s efforts.

    Cost of Goods Sold

    +16% ( )

    COGS rose from 106,877 thousand USD to 124,325 thousand USD, growing faster than revenue; this suggests that rising production or service costs (possibly due to increased input prices or higher operational costs from acquisitions) outpaced revenue gains compared to the prior period.

    Operating Income

    –41% ( )

    Operating income dropped sharply from 16,683 thousand USD to 9,791 thousand USD, indicating that increased operating expenses and integration costs significantly compressed margins relative to the previous period despite a revenue increase.

    Net Income

    –94% ( )

    Net income plunged from 9,937 thousand USD to 543 thousand USD, reflecting a dramatic erosion in profitability, likely due to escalating non-operating expenses, higher interest costs, and other one-off charges that built on an already lower-margin base from the previous period.

    EPS – Basic

    –88% ( )

    Basic EPS fell from 0.65 to 0.08, underscoring the near-elimination of per-share earnings as a result of the drastic decline in net income and potential dilution from any share count increases, worsening the performance from the prior period.

    EPS – Diluted

    –88% ( )

    Diluted EPS mirrored the decline in Basic EPS, dropping similarly by 88%, which highlights how extremely compressed net profitability per share adversely impacted shareholder returns relative to the previous quarter.

    U.S. Revenue

    +11% ( )

    U.S. revenue increased from 196.4 thousand USD to 217.08 thousand USD, showing steady domestic market performance; however, the modest growth compared to the sharper rise in costs indicates that even stable U.S. operations could not fully offset margin pressures observed in the current period.

    Foreign Revenue

    +24% ( )

    Foreign revenue grew from 19.09 thousand USD to 23.68 thousand USD, indicating accelerated expansion in international markets that contrasts with the slower domestic pace, suggesting a strategic shift that, while boosting the top line, may entail higher initial costs.

    Net Change in Cash

    Turned to –22,896 thousand USD from –1,615 thousand USD ( )

    Net cash declined drastically to –22,896 thousand USD, a significant worsening from –1,615 thousand USD in the previous period, likely due to substantially increased cash outlays for acquisitions and investment while operating cash flows did not offset these higher expenditures.

    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Gross Revenue

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    $1.026 billion to $1.045 billion

    no prior guidance

    Adjusted Earnings Per Share

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    $1.27 to $1.37 per share

    no prior guidance

    GAAP Earnings Per Share

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    $0.52 to $0.62 per share

    no prior guidance

    Organic Growth

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    mid- to high single‐digit organic growth

    no prior guidance

    EBITDA Margin Improvement

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    improvement of 150 basis points

    no prior guidance

    Free Cash Flow Conversion Rate

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    60%

    no prior guidance

    MetricPeriodGuidanceActualPerformance
    Revenue
    FY 2024
    The company anticipates achieving a $1 billion revenue run rate by the end of FY 2024
    Actual FY 2024 revenue summed across Q1–Q4 is approximately $941.265 million
    Missed
    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Data Center Business Growth and Expansion

    Q1 highlighted 27% organic growth with service expansion ; Q2 noted 30% organic growth driven by acquisitions and addressing operational challenges ; Q3 emphasized strategic acquisitions, domestic projects, and cross‐selling opportunities.

    Q4 focused on 25% organic growth with new service introductions (e.g. fire protection, structural, and power delivery), international market drivers, and acquisitions (Senergy BCS, Kisebach Consulting).

    Strong and consistent growth with ongoing service innovation and strategic acquisitions reinforcing the positive sentiment.

    Organic Revenue Growth Targets

    Q1 targeted roughly 8%+ organic growth across segments (data center at 27%) ; Q2 provided a range of 6%–10% overall with specific higher targets (e.g. 30% in U.S. data centers) ; Q3 reaffirmed conservative yet aspirational guidance amid steady organic increases (6% reported).

    Q4 announced overall mid- to high single-digit organic growth targets; detailed segment targets include Geospatial at 10–11% and Infrastructure in mid-single digits.

    Consistent sentiment with clear segmentation in Q4; overall organic growth expectations remain stable with refined targets.

    Record Backlog and Revenue Visibility

    Q1 saw a backlog increase from $802M to $838M with mixed contracts ; Q2 reported a record backlog of $877M with strong revenue visibility ; Q3 highlighted a record backlog of $914M driving a push toward a $1B run rate.

    Q4 reported a record backlog of $904M, covering 88% of low-end 2025 revenue guidance, with diversified segment contributions reinforcing revenue visibility.

    Stable and robust – all periods show high backlog figures that assure future revenue. Q4 continues this trend even as details shift slightly among periods.

    EBITDA Margin Expansion and Cost Efficiency Initiatives

    Q1 discussed margin improvement targets (17% or higher) including acquisition integration costs affecting margins ; Q2 achieved a 60-basis point increase to 16.3% with technology and cost initiatives highlighted ; Q3 delivered a 230-basis point expansion to 17.7%.

    Q4 set a target to expand EBITDA margins by 150 basis points in 2025 via cost efficiencies in administrative, IT, and real estate usage, among other initiatives.

    Ongoing focus with slight fluctuations in figures; overall, the consistent drive for margin expansion and operational cost efficiencies remains positive.

    Geospatial Business Performance and Federal Contract Uncertainty

    Q1 featured double-digit organic growth with federal issues largely resolved ; Q2 reported $72M in revenue with robust federal awards and confident outlook amid minimal political impact ; Q3 noted $84M revenue with a strong federal client mix and resilient backlog despite federal funding uncertainties.

    Q4 reported $69M in revenue, with 50% from federal contracts, and highlighted a diversified client mix (utilities and state/local) that supports high backlog coverage and opportunities despite ongoing federal uncertainty.

    Steady performance – while federal contract uncertainty remains a factor, strong backlog and technological integration continue to support a positive view.

    Reliance on Acquisition Integration for Growth

    Q1 separated organic from acquisition-driven growth; integration costs impacted margins slightly ; Q2 clarified that full-year guidance excluded acquisitions, emphasizing organic performance ; Q3 integrated acquisitions (e.g. water services, digital tools) to bolster growth.

    Q4 reiterated that 2025 guidance excludes unannounced acquisitions, maintaining a balanced approach of organic growth alongside strategic acquisition integration.

    Consistent strategic approach – all periods reflect reliance on acquisitions as complementary to organic growth, with a recent emphasis on excluding them from guidance.

    Increased DSOs and Unbilled Receivables Impacting Cash Flow

    Q1 did not mention DSOs or unbilled receivables [---]; Q2 pointed to unbilled receivables causing temporary cash flow challenges during business ramp-ups, particularly in Geospatial services.

    Q4 described a situation where unbilled receivables have extended to 42 days and overall company DSO reached 60 days, highlighting a notable cash flow management challenge.

    Recurring challenge – while not always mentioned, issues with unbilled receivables resurface, signaling an ongoing need for improved billing efficiency.

    Revenue Recognition and Accounting Adjustments

    Q1 and Q2 were silent on this topic [---]; Q3 addressed minor adjustments for past misstatements (notably from an Axim customer) and assured future revenue recognition would follow as earned.

    Q4 did not discuss revenue recognition adjustments, indicating the topic is no longer a prominent focus [no citation].

    De-emphasized – earlier concerns appear resolved, and the topic has largely faded from the discussion in Q4.

    Real Estate Transaction Business Trends

    Q1 noted steady growth with approximately $60M annual revenue driven by stable interest rates and pent-up demand ; Q2 detailed that the business, sensitive to interest rates and currently driven by refinancing, expected a larger uptick when favorable ; Q3 forecasted continued growth as interest rates eased.

    Q4 contained no mention of real estate transaction trends, suggesting the focus on this area has diminished compared to earlier periods.

    Diminished emphasis – previously relevant real estate transactional trends have been dropped from the Q4 discussion, indicating a lower priority relative to other segments.

    1. Margin Improvement Outlook
      Q: What's driving the projected 150 basis point EBITDA margin improvement in 2025?
      A: Management plans to improve EBITDA margins by reducing administrative costs, increasing efficiency, and enhancing utilization of their existing team. They aim to lower indirect labor expenses and optimize IT and real estate costs, which should contribute to the 150 basis point improvement. This focus on efficiency is expected to raise EBITDA margins without relying solely on revenue growth.

    2. Revenue Growth Expectations
      Q: How much of 2025 revenue growth is expected to be organic versus from acquisitions?
      A: The company anticipates overall organic growth of 5% to 7% for 2025. Specifically, the Geospatial segment is expected to achieve 10% to 11% organic revenue growth. Acquisitions completed in 2024 are projected to contribute about $17 million to 2025 revenue. The guidance does not include any potential future acquisitions that have not yet been completed.

    3. Backlog and Revenue Visibility
      Q: How does the current backlog support the 2025 revenue guidance?
      A: The backlog stands at a record $904 million, representing 88% of the low end of 2025 revenue guidance, which provides strong confidence in achieving the projected growth. Traditionally, backlog covers 60-65% of budgeted revenue, so this higher percentage indicates greater revenue visibility.

    4. Inflation Impact on Margins
      Q: How is inflation affecting EBITDA margins, and can increased costs be recouped?
      A: Inflation has impacted margins, particularly in administrative expenses and fixed-price contracts where increased costs cannot be easily passed on to clients. The company is addressing this by transitioning some contracts from fixed-price to hybrid models and focusing on cost optimization. They acknowledge that not all inflationary costs can be directly passed through, but efforts are underway to mitigate the impact.

    5. Data Center Demand Growth
      Q: What is the outlook for data center demand and growth in that vertical?
      A: The company is experiencing strong demand in the data center market, with organic growth tracking around 25%. This growth is not slowing down and is driven by both international and U.S. markets. In developing countries, increased cloud storage needs are a significant driver.

    6. Utilization Improvements
      Q: How will improving utilization contribute to margin expansion?
      A: Enhancing utilization by getting the existing team more engaged is a key strategy to improve margins. This involves increasing the efficiency of direct labor without necessarily adding headcount, which should positively impact the bottom line.

    7. Receivables and Cash Flow
      Q: What's the plan to address the increase in unbilled receivables and improve cash flow?
      A: The increase in unbilled receivables is due to milestone-based billing skewed towards later project stages. Management sees an opportunity to improve by revising billing milestones, ensuring they align better with work performed. They are confident in the quality of unbilled receivables and expect to optimize cash flow by addressing this issue.

    8. Organic Growth in Infrastructure and Building Tech
      Q: What are the organic growth expectations for infrastructure and building technology segments?
      A: For these segments, the company expects mid-single-digit organic growth. Overall, combining all three reporting sectors, they anticipate mid- to high single-digit organic growth.

    9. Backlog Composition and Federal Project Risk
      Q: Are there large projects or federal contracts in the backlog that pose risks?
      A: The backlog comprises a good mix across different segments, including utilities and public agencies. There are no significant risks identified from federal projects, and the company hasn't experienced cancellations, only minimal disruptions. Expanding relationships with utilities like Arizona Public Service and Pacific Gas and Electric contribute to backlog growth.

    10. Transition to Cloud-Based Software
      Q: What progress has been made in migrating Geospatial software to a cloud model?
      A: The company is leveraging cloud-based solutions to enhance efficiency and drive recurring revenue. Revenue from cloud-based NV Ecosystem software products doubled last year, albeit from a small base. They are implementing these solutions to offer automated detections and change analysis, targeting a large addressable market.

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