NexPoint Residential Trust - Q1 2024

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good day, my name is Ellie and I will be your conference operator for today. At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to the NexPoint Residential Trust first quarter 2024 earnings call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you'd like to ask a question during this time, simply press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you'd like to withdraw your question, please press star and number one again. Thank you. I'd now like to hand over the call to Kristen Thomas, Investor Relations. You may now begin the conference.

Kristen Thomas (Head of Investor Relations)

Thank you. Good day everyone and welcome to NexPoint Residential Trust conference call to review the company's results for the first quarter ended March 31st, 2024. On the call today are Brian Mitts, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Matt McGraner, Executive Vice President and Chief Investment Officer, and Bonner McDermett, Vice President, Asset and Investment Management. As a reminder, this call is being webcast through the company's website at nxrt.nexpoint.com. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that this conference call contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 that are based on management's current expectations, assumptions, and beliefs.

Listeners should not place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements and are encouraged to review the company's most recent annual report on Form 10-K and the company's other filings with the SEC for a more complete discussion of risk and other factors that could affect any forward-looking statements. The statements made during this conference call speak only as of today's date and except as required by law.

NXRT does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements. This conference call also includes an analysis of non-GAAP financial measures. For a more complete discussion of these non-GAAP financial measures, see the company's earnings release that was filed earlier today. I would now like to turn the call over to Brian Mitts. Please go ahead, Brian.

Brian Mitts (EVP and CFO)

Thank you, Kristen. Welcome to everyone joining us this morning. I'm Brian Mitts, and I'm joined today by Matt McGraner and Bonner McDermett. I'm going to kick off the call and cover our Q1 results, provide our updated NAV, and our guidance for the remainder of the year, which we are reaffirming. I'll then turn the call over to Matt and Bonner to discuss the specifics driving our performance and guidance. Results for Q1 are as follows: net income for the first quarter was $26.3 million or $1 per diluted share on total revenue of $67.5 million. This includes a $31.7 million gain on the sale of Old Farm that was completed on March 1st, 2024.

The $26.3 million net income for the quarter compares to a net loss of $4 million or $0.15 per loss per diluted share for the same period in 2023 on total revenue of $69.2 million. For the first quarter of 2024, NOI was $41.1 million on 37 properties compared to $41.1 million first quarter of 2023 on 40 properties. For the quarter, same-store rent decreased 0.4% while same-store occupancy increased 0.3% to 94.7%. This, coupled with an increase in same-store expenses of 3.6 sorry, 1.8%, led to an increase in same-store NOI of 4% as compared to Q1 2023. As compared to Q4 2023, rents for Q1 2024 on the same-store portfolio were down 0.1% or $2 sequentially. We reported Q1 Core FFO of $19.6 million or $0.75 per diluted share compared to $0.71 per diluted share in Q1 2023.

During the first quarter for the properties in our portfolio, we completed 59 full and partial upgrades and leased 59 upgraded units, achieving an average monthly rent premium of $240 and a 21.8% return on investment. Since inception for the properties currently in our portfolio, we've completed 8,593 full and partial renovations, 4,829 kitchen laundry appliance installations, and 12,348 technology packages, resulting in a $170, $39, and $43 average monthly rent increase per unit and a 20.9%, 51.4%, and 37.8% return on investment, respectively. NXRT paid a first-quarter dividend of $0.46 per share on the common stock on March 28th, 2024. Since inception, we've increased our dividend 124.5%. For Q1, our dividend was 1.61x covered by Core FFO with a payout ratio of 56.3%. During the first quarter, NXRT completed the sale of Old Farm for sales price of $103 million.

This sale generated $49.4 million of net sales proceeds, a 22.1% leveraged IRR, and a 2.98x multiple on invested capital. On March 5th, 2024, NXRT fully repaid the remaining drawn balance of $24 million on its corporate credit facility. As of March 31, 2024, we had $37.1 million in cash and $335 million of available liquidity on the corporate credit facility. Further, we are pleased to report that we are scheduled to complete the sale of Radbourne Lake in Charlotte, North Carolina, later today for gross sales proceeds of $39.25 million. This disposition is expected to retire $20 million of property-level debt and generate $18.8 million net sales proceeds, an approximate 19.3% leveraged IRR, and a 3.64x multiple on invested capital.

Given the success of our recent pending sales, their increase in liquidity position, and what we perceive to be an attractive public-private market arbitrage opportunity where our stock trades above a 7% implied cap rate vs. mid to upper-5%s for the private market transactions, and it's notable to touch on Blackstone's recently announced purchase of AIR Communities, we initiated a share buyback program to purchase up to $25 million of our shares. To date this quarter, we have purchased approximately 8.5 million of shares at an average price of $31.75 per share, which represents an approximate 40% discount from the midpoint of our Q1 NAV estimate.

Speaking of the NAV, let's move to that. Based on our current estimate of cap rates in our markets and forward NOI, we are reporting an NAV per share range as follows: $45.91 on low ends, $58.97 on high end, $52.44 midpoint. These are based on average cap rates ranging from 5.5% on low end, 6% on high end, which remains stable quarter-over-quarter. Moving to guidance, NXRT is reaffirming 2024 guidance ranges for earnings per diluted share, core FFO per diluted share, same-store rental income, same-store total revenue, same-store total expenses, same-store NOI interest expense and its related components, and reaffirming acquisitions and dispositions as follows.

Our core FFO per diluted share: $2.60 on low end, $2.85 on high end, for a midpoint of $2.72. Same-store rental income: 1.4% increase on the low end, 3.2% increase on high end, for a midpoint of 2.3% increase. Same-store NOI: -2% or a 2% decline on the low end, 2% increase on the high end with a midpoint of 0%. So that completes my remarks. Let me turn it over to Matt and Bonner for commentary.

Matt McGraner (EVP and CIO)

Thanks, Brian. Let me start by going over our first quarter same-store operational results. Same-store rental revenue was 3.6% for the quarter, with seven out of our 10 markets averaging at least 3% growth, with our Charlotte and Southport assets leading the way at 8.6% and 7.6% growth, respectively. We're also pleased to report some continued moderation in expense growth for the quarter.

First quarter same-store operating expenses were up just 1.9% year-over-year. Of note, marketing and payroll declined 8.4% and 6.2%, respectively, year-over-year, and R&M expense growth continued to moderate, just up 2.9% from first quarter of 2023. Five out of our 10 markets achieved year-over-year NOI growth of at least 5.9% or greater, with Orlando and Southport leading the way at 12.3% and 9.9% growth, respectively. Our Q1 same-store NOI margin registered a healthy 61.9%. That's up 24 basis points from the prior year.

Now turning to components of Q1 performance. With peak deliveries in most of our markets occurring in Q3 of this year, as detailed on Page 5 of the supplemental, we continue to focus on our operational efforts on maximizing resident retention, reducing our exposure to rising turnover costs, and further centralizing labor. Maintaining and building occupancy has remained a key focus. The portfolio registered 94.6% occupancy to close the quarter, and as of this morning, the portfolio is 94.7% occupied and 93% lease. On the rental revenue side, new lease growth remains constrained due to near-term concentrated supply in our markets, but there are signs that the deceleration in new lease growth is bottoming. New leases for the quarter improved 130 basis points to -6.5% from -7.8% quarter-over-quarter.

In April, it was trending better than Q1 by 80 basis points. Renewals are also positive for the quarter at 92 basis points and have accelerated sequentially since the third quarter of last year to 1.4% as we sit in April. Bad debt is also trending in a positive direction, improving quarter-over-quarter. Q3 2023 was 3.2%, Q4 was 2%, and Q1 was down to 1.8%, trending approximately 90 basis points better than our expectations. On the value-add front, during the first quarter, as Brian said, we completed 59 full and partial interior upgrades, achieving an average monthly rent premium of $240 and a 21.8% ROI. We also installed 68 washer and dryer sets for an average monthly rent premium of $48 and a 54.6% ROI. Lastly, we completed bespoke upgrades on an additional 55 units with average rent premiums of $56 per unit.

For the remainder of 2024, we intend to complete an additional 352 full or partial interior upgrades, 465 washer and dryer sets, and 318 bespoke upgrades in units where we see demand to drive rental income. On the expense side, we completed our insurance renewal at the end of March, and I'm happy to report that our premiums will remain flat, which aligns with our midpoint guidance expectations. On the transaction front, we continue to actively monitor the investment sales market for opportunities and price discovery. While apartment transaction volume is at the lowest point in the past decade, over the last 60 days, private equity investors have aggressively priced over $15 billion of housing product in the low 5% in-place cap rate range.

Over $240 billion of North American-focused real estate, closed-end fund dry powder remains on the sidelines in search of 13%-20% leveraged IRRs, according to Stifel. Against this backdrop and even with the near-term elevated supply picture, our strategically positioned Sun Belt portfolio screens attractively, particularly given our immigration and demographic backdrop. Indeed, as you can see from the supplemental, according to CoStar, one out of every two jobs are expected to be created in NXRT markets through 2027. Now, with the sale of Old Farm closed and with the closing of Radbourne later today, we will have roughly $36 million of cash to continue to buy back shares and/or pay down debt. And given our current cost of capital, we have prioritized this balance sheet cleanup and share buybacks over external growth pursuits.

At current levels, NXRT's implied cap rate remains north of 7.25, and with a constructive view, sorry, on when supply will wane, we believe repurchasing our shares at these levels makes the most sense. In closing, we are happy with the start of 2024 through late April. We will remain focused on occupancy and controlling expenses to maximize NOI growth. In the long term, we remain bullish on our Sunbelt market as we expect to outpace northern and coastal cities in population, job, and wage growth. In the short term, we expect to see modest growth, specifically in the second half of the year as supply growth begins to decline. That's all I have for prepared remarks. Thanks to our teams here at NexPoint and BH for continuing to execute. Now I'd like to turn it over to the operator for Q&A.

Operator (participant)

Ladies and gentlemen, we are now opening the floor for question and answer session. If you'd like to ask a question, please press star and number one on your telephone keypad. Our first question comes from Kyle Katorincek from Janney. Your line is now open.

Kyle Katorincek (VP of Equity Research)

Hey, good morning, guys. What does concession usage look like across the portfolio? Is concession usage picking up in April vs. Q1 2024?

Brian Mitts (EVP and CFO)

Yeah, I don't, and Bonner you can chime in too if you have anything to add. Concession usage going forward does pick up in the second quarter and the third quarter and then starts to wane in the fourth quarter. That's one reason why we're maintaining guidance until July so we have a better view on just how the supply is impacting the market rents. But as we stated, the blended rents have appeared to bottom in our view. And so the use of concessions, which were a couple of weeks free to waiving the normal fees that we would charge, have begun to have begun to dissipate. And so while we're still underwriting that we'll have to use them, we're hopefully optimistic that we won't. Bonner, anything to add to that?

Bonner McDermett (VP of Asset and Investment Management)

Yeah, just to quantify it a little bit. So first quarter concession use was about 24 basis points on GPR. It's not in every market. We see it more in the high supply markets. Having been out and seeing some sites, we're talking more in a couple of areas of Phoenix, a couple of areas of Charlotte, Raleigh, areas where we have more new supply delivering. There's more of a market expectation for a concession. But we're trying to maintain about two-four weeks free where the new development, particularly in the highest supplied areas, are two and even up to three months free.

Kyle Katorincek (VP of Equity Research)

Okay. Thank you. And then how far are you guys to the various upgrade opportunities within the portfolio? Just trying to get a sense of the runway left ahead of you versus all the units you've already done. Are you basically done with the technology package upgrades at this point, having done more than 12,000 of them?

Brian Mitts (EVP and CFO)

Yeah, we're basically done with the tech packages. There's some low-hanging fruit, as we mentioned, on the washer and dryers, which will hit this year. And then as it relates to sort of the full interior package, we go in and audit on an annual basis what kind of bespoke upgrades we can do and then tailor-make those upgrades as we go throughout the year, depending on how the asset in particular is performing.

But as kind of like a Gen 2, I think we have roughly 5,000, 5,500 units still to do, which gives us another about a year and a half, two years of internal growth to go pursue as this supply picture wanes and we can be more competitive. That's another kind of key component and why we've paused and hit the brakes a little bit vs. years prior. But as the supply starts to dissipate in Q4 and certainly into 2025, you'll see us ramp those upgrades pretty quickly.

Kyle Katorincek (VP of Equity Research)

All right. That's it for me. Thanks, guys.

Brian Mitts (EVP and CFO)

Thanks.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Tayo Okusanya from Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open.

Omotayo Okusanya (Managing Director)

Wow, Deutsche Bank. Okay. Good morning, everyone.

Matt McGraner (EVP and CIO)

Morning, Tayo.

Omotayo Okusanya (Managing Director)

So a quick question on guidance. Again, very strong first quarter. Again, understand you're going to have the asset sales, which are somewhat diluted to earnings as the year progresses. But could you kind of walk us through, again, 4% same-store NOI in 1Q, but full-year guidance somewhere between -2% and 2%. Again, what's causing some of that deceleration? Is it just overall concerns about supply and the impact on portfolio performance? And then also, just guidance range still remains pretty wide. So is the thought, get through spring leasing season, have better clarity, and then maybe at that point start to narrow the guidance range?

Brian Mitts (EVP and CFO)

Yeah, that's exactly right, Tayo. We feel good with how the first quarter came in. Absorption was better than we thought. Bad debt was, as I said, 90 basis points better than we thought. And occupancy was better than we thought. And obviously, renewal rates on the new lease side were -5%, -6%. As we get into the second and third quarter, we're underwriting still almost a gain to lease and the GPR. We're underwriting a GPR down another 90 basis points in the second quarter and then another 40 basis points sequentially into the third quarter and another 90 basis points into the fourth quarter. And so if that flips, then we'll be excited to report a narrowing range and hopefully raise as we work through the second quarter. But that's the biggest reason we're just being cautious for the moment.

Omotayo Okusanya (Managing Director)

Gotcha. That's helpful. And then if I may sneak one more in, again, the swaps that are going to be expiring this year, about $385 million of swaps. How do we kind of think about a lot of them are kind of in the money right now, so they are helping you. How do we kind of think about that as it drops off? Kind of put in new swaps at higher rates, go floating on that debt?

Brian Mitts (EVP and CFO)

Yeah, that's a great question. So we worked on this during the first quarter and basically monitoring the fluctuations in interest rates. It doesn't make a ton of sense in our view at peak rates, which is where we think we are at least at peak rates to go ahead and layer on more swaps. And really, the math isn't as dangerous or as gloomy as folks might think. We did some work, and we only have to CAGR NOI at 5% over the next 2025 and 2026 to maintain current FFO levels and have the swaps, all of them, expire. And that's assuming we could refinance and term out all our debt at the 5% rate.

Now, if we're able to CAGR at a higher rate, which we have historically done since we've been a public company at 6%, 7%, 8%, and we're able to fix our debt at a lower than 5% rate, then we hopefully get into the $3 core FFO range. And so that's a long way of saying we're going to watch the yield curve. And we believe, as rents are decelerating, that those numbers will eventually make it into CPI and allow for some easing.

And if and when that happens, we'll be doing the same math. But really, the powerful point is that this company will grow same-store NOI in the mid to high-single digits going forward, especially as supply becomes nonexistent. And that's illustrated in the supplemental where we lay out the deliveries in our submarkets. We can see it. There's not going to be any supply coming in 2026 at all. At that point, our swaps are expiring. My guess is our equity cost of capital will improve and/or the value of the company will be higher than it is today.

Omotayo Okusanya (Managing Director)

Gotcha. And then what do you think you can actually raise fixed-rate paper today, whether it's 5-year or 10-year, unsecured?

Brian Mitts (EVP and CFO)

Yeah. Unsecured, we don't have an unsecured rating, so that's not really applicable to us. Fannie Freddie debt is pricing in the 6% range on a 10-year fixed basis. And we could do things a little bit better as a select sponsor of Freddie, probably get in the mid-5%s. But that's where it is today if we went out and tried to fix everything.

Omotayo Okusanya (Managing Director)

Thank you.

Brian Mitts (EVP and CFO)

Thanks.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Barry Oxford from Colliers. Your line is now open.

Barry Oxford (Managing Director)

Great. Thanks, guys. On the interest line item quarter-over-quarter, can you talk about what drove the interest line item to be down as much as it was, and how should we think about that going forward?

Matt McGraner (EVP and CIO)

Yeah, Bonner, you can take that one.

Bonner McDermett (VP of Asset and Investment Management)

Yeah, I think given what we thought we were looking at in the end of the year, looking at the forward curve, obviously, it was priced in a pretty significant amount, five cuts, when we were talking in Q4. Now today, I think the market is somewhere around two cuts ±. So the SOFR curve at 12/31/2024 is significantly steeper than it was expected to be here when we talked two months ago. That has an impact on the fair value of the swaps. So there's some non-cash mark-to-market activity that I think was a little bit more significant than we estimated. We got a benefit in the first quarter from that. I think that that's the biggest differential you're probably seeing in the interest expense line.

Barry Oxford (Managing Director)

Right. So it was the adjustments in the swap value.

Bonner McDermett (VP of Asset and Investment Management)

That's right.

Barry Oxford (Managing Director)

Right. Okay. No, great. It's kind of what I thought it was given your comments previously. But switching gears, you indicated that you were looking to buy back shares. Are you prioritizing the buyback of shares over acquisitions, or, not necessarily, you could be doing both of them at the same time?

Brian Mitts (EVP and CFO)

Yeah, we're prioritizing the buybacks as it sits today because there's still a clear gap between public and private market values, significant, almost 150-200 basis points as it relates to our company. The Blackstone AIR Communities deal was 5.9% headline cap rate, but if you dig into it, it's 5.3%. That's a big bet. And so we can't find anything in the market, and the transaction volume is, again, the lowest it's ever been in the last decade. So it makes sense to buy a portfolio that we know and love in the sevens.

Barry Oxford (Managing Director)

Right. Exactly. Nope, makes sense. Appreciate it, guys.

Brian Mitts (EVP and CFO)

Thanks, Barry.

Operator (participant)

For no further questions as of the moment, I'd now like to hand back over to the management for their final remarks.

Bonner McDermett (VP of Asset and Investment Management)

Nothing further from us. Appreciate everyone's time and thoughtful questions. And we'll speak next quarter. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you, everyone, for attending today's call. We hope that you have a wonderful day. Stay safe, and you may now all disconnect at.