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NEXSTAR MEDIA GROUP, INC. (NXST)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 net revenue of $1.23B declined 3.9% y/y on lower political advertising, while distribution revenue set a first‑quarter record; diluted EPS was $3.37 and Adjusted EBITDA $381M as CW sports programming amortization and weaker Food Network income weighed on margins .
  • Versus S&P Global consensus, NXST delivered a small top‑line and EPS beat (Revenue $1.234B vs $1.227B*, Primary EPS $3.31 vs $3.11*), while EBITDA (S&P “EBITDA”) ran below the consensus definition despite company Adjusted EBITDA of $381M* [GetEstimates Q1 2025] .
  • Management reiterated FY 2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance (given in Q4) and detailed Q2 cash flow headwinds (cash taxes $150–$155M, programming payments > amortization by ~$15M), with distribution renegotiations covering ~60% of the base expected to benefit revenue beginning Q1 2026 .
  • Strategic catalysts: deregulation momentum (ownership rules/NPRM prospects), CW path to breakeven in 2026, NewsNation audience gains, and optional deleveraging/share repurchases; near‑term attention on advertising softness and CW sports amortization .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Record Q1 distribution revenue ($762M), flat y/y despite MVPD attrition, supported by rate escalators, vMVPD growth, and added CW affiliations .
  • Stable cash generation: Net cash from operations rose 22% to $337M; Adjusted FCF was $348M, enabling $132M capital returns and $31M debt repayment .
  • Audience momentum at The CW and NewsNation: NASCAR Xfinity and WWE NXT viewers up 19% y/y; NewsNation outperformed MSNBC 24x and CNN 6x in A25–54 since Dec‑2024 .
  • Quote: “Nexstar delivered solid first quarter Net Revenue, Adjusted EBITDA, and Adjusted Free Cash Flow, driven by record first quarter distribution revenue and disciplined expense management.” — Perry Sook, CEO .

What Went Wrong

  • Advertising revenue declined 10.2% y/y to $460M on a $32M drop in political to $6M and ~$20M non‑political softness; insurance and auto (Tier 2/3) were notable drags .
  • Net income fell 41.9% y/y to $97M; margins compressed (NI margin 7.9% vs 13.0%) due to higher CW sports amortization, lapping a $40M BMI gain in Q1 2024, and lower equity income from TV Food Network .
  • Adjusted EBITDA declined 15.7% y/y to $381M; Adjusted EBITDA margin contracted to 30.9% (from 35.2%) amid lower revenue and TVFN performance .

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Net Revenue ($USD Billions)$1.284 $1.488 $1.234
Primary EPS ($)$5.25 (Basic)/$5.16 (Diluted shown separately) $7.68 (Basic)/$7.56 (Diluted shown separately) $3.41 (Basic)/$3.37 (Diluted shown separately)
Diluted EPS ($)$5.16 $7.56 $3.37
Net Income ($USD Millions)$167 $229 $97
Net Income Margin (%)13.0% 15.4% 7.9%
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$452 $628 $381
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)35.2% 42.2% 30.9%
Segment Net Revenue ($USD Millions)Q1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Distribution$761 $714 $762
Advertising$512 $758 $460
Other$11 $16 $12
KPIsQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Net Cash from Operating Activities ($USD Millions)$276 $411 $337
Adjusted Free Cash Flow ($USD Millions)$389 $411 $348
Cash on Hand ($USD Millions)$237 $144 $253
Total Debt ($USD Millions)$—$6,523 $6,495
First Lien Net Leverage (x)$—1.68x 1.67x
Total Net Leverage (x)$—2.91x 2.93x
Shares Repurchased111k ($111M) 1,060,862 ($178M) 441,164 ($75M) @ ~$169.99
Quarterly Dividend per Share ($)$1.69 (Q4 2024 declared) $1.69 (paid Q4) $1.86 (declared May 5, 2025)

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Adjusted EBITDA (Company)FY 2025$1.5B–$1.595B (set in Q4) Reiterated; no intra‑quarter update Maintained
Distribution Revenue TrajectoryFY 2025“Relatively flat” inclusive of attrition (prior commentary) Unchanged; major renewal benefits begin Q1 2026 Maintained
CW ProfitabilityFY 2025/2026Improved in 2025; breakeven in 2026 Unchanged Maintained
Q2 CapExQ2 2025—$30–$35M New detail
Q2 Interest ExpenseQ2 2025—~$95M New detail
Q2 Cash TaxesQ2 2025—$150–$155M; includes deferred 2024 federal payment New detail
Programming Cash vs AmortizationQ2 2025—Payments > amortization by ~$15M (deferred payments) New detail
DividendQ1/Q2 2025Raised to $1.86 (Jan 29) Declared $1.86 payable Jun 2 Raised (10%)

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ3 2024 (Prev‑2)Q4 2024 (Prev‑1)Q1 2025 (Current)Trend
Deregulation/OwnershipDetailed push for reform; groundwork in D.C. Sector positioning and guidance issued Expect NPRM; bipartisan support; waivers possible Momentum building
Distribution Renewals & SubsApple‑to‑apple mid‑single digit retrans growth; subscriber attrition normalization thesis NBC affiliation renewal; distribution revenue growth ~60% of base up for renewal; benefits start Q1 2026; attrition modestly improving Positive setup 2026
Advertising & TariffsNon‑political −4.5% y/y; Olympics helped Record political; local/national mixed Non‑political mid‑single‑digit decline expected in Q2; limited tariff exposure (services weighted) Soft near term
The CW StrategyLosses down; sports expansion (NASCAR, WWE) Losses reduced $126M FY; added affiliates Ratings strength; mid‑teens Q1 profitability decline from sports amortization; breakeven 2026 Mixed near term, improving LT
NewsNation PerformanceElection coverage and growth Record Q4 audiences Outperformed MSNBC/CNN in A25–54 since Dec‑2024; added to White House press pool Strengthening
ATSC 3.0/SpectrumEarly monetization plans; JV activity EdgeBeam Wireless JV formed (97% US spectrum coverage) Seek firm transition to ATSC 3.0; monetize ancillary services Advancing
M&A OptionalityPrefers broadcast assets; not cable networks Announced WBNX purchase Calculated risk; deals contingent on deregulation & accretion vs buybacks Dependent on rules

Management Commentary

  • “Given our strong financial position and balance sheet, we are prepared to capitalize on deregulation through M&A… any new transactions being contemplated will have to be more accretive than [buybacks].” — Perry Sook .
  • “Approximately 60% of our total subscriber base is up for renewal in 2025… we would expect to see the benefit to distribution revenue beginning in the first quarter of 2026.” — Michael Biard .
  • “Q1 2025 depreciation and amortization was $205M… broadcast rights amortization was $88M vs $69M in Q1 2024 due to CW sports programming.” — Lee Gliha .
  • “NewsNation’s ratings have outperformed MSNBC 24x and CNN 6x in the key adult 25–54 demo [since Dec 2024].” — Perry Sook .

Q&A Highlights

  • Regulatory timetable and NPRM: Management anticipates FCC action post 5th commissioner confirmation; waivers could be considered during rulemaking; DOJ views on market definition increasingly reflect broader ad competition .
  • Advertising outlook: Q2 non‑political pacing down mid‑single digits; categories weak in insurance and auto (Tier 2/3), partially offset by attorneys/home repair/travel; Fox Super Bowl aided Q1 stations .
  • CW economics: Q1 losses increased >$10M y/y due to sports amortization; full‑year CW losses expected ~25% better vs 2024; affiliate fee repricing progressing with stronger value proposition .
  • Reverse retrans cap discussion: Management views a proposed 30% cap as unlikely to gain traction; focus remains on asymmetry between vMVPDs and MVPDs .

Estimates Context

MetricS&P Global Consensus (Q1 2025)Actual (Q1 2025)Beat/Miss
Primary EPS ($)3.10931*3.31030*Beat*
Revenue ($USD Billions)1.22694*1.23400*Beat*
EBITDA ($USD Millions, S&P definition)359.71*345.00*Miss*
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions, Company)—381 —

Values retrieved from S&P Global*. Note: Company “Adjusted EBITDA” differs from S&P’s “EBITDA” definition; comparison above uses S&P’s convention for consensus and actuals.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Distribution resilience remains the ballast: record Q1 distribution and ~60% renewals in 2025 set up a 2026 revenue step‑up; watch MVPD/vMVPD attrition moderation and rate escalators .
  • Near‑term FCF headwinds in Q2 from taxes and programming cash timing are transitory; underlying cash generation supports deleveraging and buybacks (first‑lien 1.67x; total 2.93x) .
  • CW sports strategy is driving ratings and distribution value; expect profitability trajectory to improve through 2025 with breakeven in 2026, though quarterly amortization can create noise .
  • Advertising softness persists, but exposure to goods‑based categories is limited (~15% of total revenue); service‑based advertisers and digital growth offer offsets; Q2 non‑political down mid‑single digits .
  • Regulatory reform is a potential multiple catalyst: ownership cap easing and in‑market duopolies could unlock accretive M&A; management stands ready to act with a buyback hurdle for accretion .
  • Equity method income from TV Food Network was weaker y/y; monitor distributions and revenue trends at the partner for incremental FCF swings .
  • Trading lens: small EPS/revenue beat vs consensus, margin compression from CW amortization; next datapoints are Q2 ad trend, cash taxes impact, and progress on FCC/NPRM—key drivers of sentiment near term [GetEstimates Q1 2025] .