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NEXSTAR MEDIA GROUP, INC. (NXST)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2025 delivered a clean top-line and EPS beat versus S&P Global consensus, with net revenue of $1.23B and diluted EPS of $3.06; S&P “Primary EPS” was $3.22 vs $2.71 consensus, and revenue was $1.23B vs $1.21B consensus, driven by resilient core advertising, stable distribution, and disciplined costs. Bold beat: revenue and EPS versus estimates. *
  • Year-over-year comparisons reflect the expected non-election year headwind: advertising down 9.0% YoY (political down to $9M) and Adjusted EBITDA down 6.0% YoY; sequentially, Adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 31.7% from Q1’s 30.9%.
  • Capital allocation remained shareholder-friendly: $106M returned (dividends + buybacks), $101M debt repaid; quarter-end cash $234M and total net leverage 3.19x (first lien 1.81x).
  • Strategic momentum continued at The CW (now #8 network, sports now >40% of programming hours) and NewsNation (fastest YoY growth in June), plus favorable regulatory developments (FCC refreshing the ownership cap record; Eighth Circuit vacated the top-four rule), which could be a stock narrative catalyst.
  • Q3 guide-items: CapEx $25–$30M, interest expense ≈$93M, cash taxes $35–$40M, TVFN distributions low- to mid-single-digit millions, programming payments > amortization by ≈$25M; FY25 Adjusted EBITDA guidance range maintained at $1.5–$1.595B.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Beat on both revenue and EPS versus S&P consensus; management cited better-than-expected advertising, stable distribution, and strong expense management. “Nexstar delivered another solid quarter...” *
    • The CW extended its ratings growth streak (five consecutive quarters), reaching #8 network, with sports now >40% of hours; WWE NXT and NASCAR Xfinity ratings materially higher YoY.
    • NewsNation ranked #1 basic cable network for YoY growth in June; national network performance exceeded internal expectations, with dollars “following the eyeballs.”

  • What Went Wrong

    • YoY decline driven by non-election year political (-$36M to $9M), and non-political advertising softness (-2.5%), pulling advertising revenue down 9.0% YoY.
    • Adjusted EBITDA down 6% YoY to $389M, reflecting lower revenue and reduced equity income from TV Food Network (TVFN).
    • Goods-based advertising categories (notably auto) soft; management also flagged tariff exposure to ~15% of total revenue, a watch item heading into H2.

Financial Results

  • Quarterly trend and YoY comparisons
MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Net Revenue ($USD Millions)$1,488 $1,234 $1,229
Net Income ($USD Millions)$229 $97 $91
Diluted EPS ($)$7.56 $3.37 $3.06
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$628 $381 $389
Net Income Margin (%)15.4% 7.9% 7.4%
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)42.2% 30.9% 31.7%
  • Q2 2025 revenue composition (YoY)
Metric ($USD Millions)Q2 2024Q2 2025YoY Change
Distribution$734 $733 (0.1%)
Advertising$522 $475 (9.0%)
Other$13 $21 +61.5%
Net Revenue$1,269 $1,229 (3.2%)
  • KPIs and balance sheet
KPIQ2 2025
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities ($USD Millions)$247
Adjusted Free Cash Flow ($USD Millions)$101
CapEx ($USD Millions)$29
Net Interest Expense ($USD Millions)$97
Cash Balance ($USD Millions)$234
Total Debt ($USD Millions)$6,383
First Lien Net Leverage (x)1.81x (new definition)
Total Net Leverage (x)3.19x (new definition)
Debt Repayment ($USD Millions)$101
Shareholder Return ($USD Millions)$106 (Dividends $56, Buybacks $50)
Shares Outstanding (thousands)30,315
  • Estimates vs Actuals (S&P Global; Primary EPS uses SPGI methodology)
MetricQ2 2025 ConsensusQ2 2025 Actual# of Estimates
Revenue ($USD)$1,210,916,570*$1,229,000,000*7*
Primary EPS ($)$2.7087*$3.22475*7*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Adjusted EBITDAFY 2025$1.50B–$1.595B $1.50B–$1.595B Maintained
CapExQ3 2025N/A$25–$30M New quarter-specific detail
Net Interest ExpenseQ3 2025N/A≈$93M New quarter-specific detail
Cash TaxesQ3 2025N/A$35–$40M New quarter-specific detail
TVFN Cash DistributionsQ3 2025N/ALow to mid single-digit $M New quarter-specific detail
Programming Cash vs AmortizationQ3 2025N/ACash payments > amortization by ≈$25M New quarter-specific detail
The CW LossesFY 2025Improve ≈25% YoY On track; Q2 improved by ≈$21M YoY Maintained trajectory
DividendQ3 2025$1.86 (raised 10% in Q1) $1.86 declared Aug 1; payable Aug 29, record Aug 15 Maintained payout level

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4 2024, Q1 2025)Current Period (Q2 2025)Trend
Distribution renewals & MVPD trendsRenewals key focus in 2025; distribution revenue growth in Q4 Distribution revenue flat YoY; early signs of video sub improvement; value-aligned agreements focus Stabilizing
CW sports programming & ratingsSports additions (AVP, HBCU All-Star); momentum building Sports now >40% programming hours; ratings growth (NXT, NASCAR up significantly) Positive
NewsNation growthStrong election coverage outcomes; brand building #1 basic cable network for YoY growth in June; performance exceeding expectations Positive
Regulatory/legalPursuing deregulation (FY24/Q1 commentary) FCC refresh on national cap; Eighth Circuit vacates top-four rule; optimism on reform Improving backdrop
Macro/advertising mixNon-election political crowd-out noted in Q4; softer non-political ad Non-political down ~2.5%; attorneys/home repair strong; auto weak; ad outlook “stable” Mixed but stable
Tariffs exposureNot highlighted~15% revenue tied to goods businesses potentially impacted by tariffs Watch item
Technology initiativesEdgeBeam Wireless JV announced (ATSC 3.0 data) AI/social misinformation risk highlighted; Nexstar positioning on trusted local news Strategic positioning

Management Commentary

  • “Nexstar delivered another solid quarter... benefiting from better than expected advertising revenue, stable distribution revenue and strong expense management.” — Perry Sook
  • “Distribution revenue... flat YoY... subscriber attrition offset by contractual rate escalators, growth in vMVPD subscribers, and addition of CW affiliations.” — Michael Biard
  • “Adjusted EBITDA was $389M; margin 31.7%... CW profitability improved by $21M YoY; on track for ~25% improvement in 2025 and profitability in 2026.” — Lee Ann Gliha
  • “FCC moved to refresh the record on the national ownership cap... Eighth Circuit vacated top-four rule... we applaud support for aligning regulation with marketplace realities.” — Perry Sook
  • “National network dollars are following the eyeballs; NewsNation fastest growth; CW #8 network.” — Perry Sook

Q&A Highlights

  • M&A outlook and regulatory process: Willing to modestly increase leverage for the right acquisition; regulatory waivers and proceedings can run in parallel; CW O&O expansion a positive but not sole priority.
  • Sports rights strategy: Consistent ratings growth for NASCAR Xfinity and college sports; exploring additional college opportunities; ad rates up YoY across sports inventory.
  • vMVPD/DTC products: Expect neutral-to-positive impact on pay TV; pricing designed to be complementary; Fox One to include Nexstar Fox station feeds.
  • Ad market/digital: Digital growing mid-single digits overall, higher at local; attorneys/home repair strong; auto weak; ad pacing stable.
  • Leadership: CEO reiterated no plans to retire; remains highly engaged and aligned as a major shareholder.

Estimates Context

  • Q2 2025 beat: Revenue $1.229B vs $1.211B consensus; S&P Primary EPS $3.22 vs $2.71 consensus; company-reported diluted EPS $3.06. Estimates likely need to reflect better-than-expected national networks and disciplined costs. *
  • Forward snapshots: Q3 revenue consensus $1.200B; Primary EPS consensus $2.43; Q4 revenue consensus $1.246B; Primary EPS consensus $4.05 (pre-election year build). [GetEstimates]*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Clear beat on Q2 revenue and EPS versus S&P consensus; sequential margin improvement supports near-term sentiment. *
  • Advertising softness was modest ex-political; national networks (NewsNation, CW) are outperforming and attracting dollars, underpinning H2 trajectory.
  • Balance sheet improved with refinancing and debt reduction; first lien leverage at 1.81x and total net leverage 3.19x provide M&A optionality.
  • Regulatory momentum (ownership cap refresh; top-four rule vacated) enhances medium-term consolidation prospects—a potential re-rating catalyst.
  • Q3 cash planning detail (CapEx, interest, cash taxes) de-risks near-term FCF cadence; programming cash prepayments will weigh ≈$25M in Q3.
  • CW losses improving; still on track for ~25% better in FY25 and profitability in 2026—sports strategy showing tangible ratings/monetization traction.
  • Dividend maintained at $1.86 and ongoing buybacks reinforce capital return commitment while preserving debt capacity for strategic moves.

Appendix: Additional Press Releases (Q3 timing but relevant to Q2 context)

  • Declared quarterly dividend of $1.86 per share; payable Aug 29, 2025; record Aug 15, 2025.
  • Business highlights: fundraising telethon impact and newsroom accolades (52 regional Edward R. Murrow awards).

Notes on non-GAAP: Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted Free Cash Flow definitions updated in Q3 2024; see reconciliations in the Q2 2025 press release.