NY
NEW YORK COMMUNITY BANCORP, INC. (NYCB)·Q3 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q3 2024 was another transitional quarter: total revenues were $623M, net loss attributable to common was $(289)M (diluted EPS $(0.79)), and net interest margin compressed to 1.79% as deposit costs rose and nonaccruals weighed on NII .
- Funding mix improved: deposits rose $4B to $83B (+5%) while wholesale borrowings fell 31% to $19.3B, driving the loan-to-deposit ratio down to 86% from 110% in Q1; liquidity stood “over $41B” with ~299% uninsured deposit coverage (surprise positive) .
- Credit costs remained elevated: provision was $242M and net charge-offs $240M, with NPL ratio up to 3.54% from 2.61% in Q2; ACL coverage increased to 1.87% of loans .
- Management guided: provisions for FY24 raised to $1.1–$1.2B; NIM has likely bottomed in Q3 with Q4 similar, then improvement through 2025; FDIC assessments ~+$100M annually in 2025–2026; workforce reduction actions to reduce opex (new catalysts) .
- Name change catalyst: holding company rebranded to Flagstar Financial (FLG) at quarter-end; CFO confirmed MSR and broker business sale expected to close in early November (process milestone) .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Funding rebalanced: deposits +$4B to $83B, retail +$2.5B (+8%) and Private Bank +$1.8B (+11%); wholesale borrowings down ~$8.6B to $19.3B; loan-to-deposit ratio improved to 86% (“positive shift in funding mix”) .
- Liquidity and capital strengthened: total liquidity “over $41B” (~300% coverage of uninsured deposits) and CET1 10.76% (pro-forma 11.4% including MSR sale benefit) .
- CRE de-risking: ~$1B CRE payoffs at par in Q3 (34% from substandard), and 97% of CRE portfolio reviewed; >90% of repriced multi‑family loans paid off at par or remain current (favorable borrower performance) .
Management quotes:
- “We made significant progress on each of our strategic priorities... utilized... liquidity to pay down a significant amount of wholesale borrowings” .
- “Liquidity remains extremely strong at over $41 billion... approximately 300% coverage to uninsured deposits” .
- “Approximately $2.1 billion of our multi-family reached their repricing date… over 90% have either paid off at par or remain current” .
What Went Wrong
- Earnings pressure: net interest income fell to $510M (−8% q/q; −42% y/y) and NIM to 1.79% (−19bp q/q), primarily due to higher deposit costs and nonaccruals .
- Elevated credit costs and nonaccruals: provision $242M; NPLs rose to $2.514B (3.54% of loans); net charge-offs $240M, with CRE and multi‑family driving losses .
- Higher operating expenses: operating expenses $661M (+4% q/q), FDIC insurance +8% q/q to $98M; CFO guided FDIC assessments to remain elevated in 2025–2026 (headwind) .
Financial Results
Segment/Portfolio Mix
KPIs – Funding and Capital
KPIs – Credit Quality
Non-accrual Loans by Category
Loan-to-Deposit Ratio
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO: “We made significant progress on multiple fronts towards our goal of becoming a diversified regional bank… second consecutive quarter of strong deposit growth… utilized liquidity to pay down wholesale borrowings.”
- CEO: “Our CRE exposure continues to decline through… par pay-offs… of the $2.1B of multi-family loans that have repriced this year, over 90% have paid off at par or remain current.”
- CFO: “Pro-forma CET1 ratio is 11.4%… We expect [MSR sale] transaction will close in the next couple of weeks… margin has bottomed in the third quarter; similar in the fourth, increasing through 2025.”
- CCO: “We had just over $1B in CRE payoffs in the third quarter… approximately 34% were related to our substandard portfolio… 97% of the total CRE portfolio reviewed.”
Q&A Highlights
- Rate sensitivity and deposit betas: Slightly liability-sensitive; brought down premium deposit rates by 60–75bp; modeled 50 beta on interest-bearing deposits; spot savings ~5% and falling .
- Nonaccrual trajectory and provisioning: NPLs expected to remain elevated through 2026 due to repricing windows; FY24 provision raised to $1.1–$1.2B; charge-offs slightly lower in Q4 then tapering in 2025 .
- Balance sheet strategy and Category 4 standards: Plan is not to shrink below $100B simply to exit enhanced standards; expect relatively flat balance sheet with mix shift from CRE/MF to C&I .
- Operating expense and FDIC costs: Workforce reduction and process/technology efficiencies to deliver ~$200M/year savings; FDIC assessment nondeductible and volatiles tax rate .
- Borrowings and funding: Additional $1B wholesale borrowing paydown in October; plan to let brokered CDs roll in 2025 and replace with customer deposits .
Estimates Context
- S&P Global consensus estimates were unavailable via our data connector for NYCB this quarter; as a result, we cannot quantify beats/misses versus Street for EPS or revenue at this time (system mapping error) [SpgiEstimatesError].
- Given raised FY24 provisions, elevated FDIC costs in 2025–2026, and NIM bottoming in Q3, Street EPS estimates for 2025–2026 likely need downward revision near term, with recovery path tied to CRE repricing and C&I growth (per management guidance) .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Funding shift is a clear positive: deposits +$4B and wholesale borrowings −31% to $19.3B drove loan-to-deposit ratio to 86% and bolstered liquidity and capital—supports NIM recovery in 2025 as deposit pricing normalizes .
- Credit remains the swing factor: NPLs up to 3.54% and provisions elevated, with management signaling nonaccruals remain high into 2026 due to repricing windows—expect continued headline volatility around credit and ACL coverage .
- Margin inflection setup: management believes NIM has bottomed; Q4 similar to Q3, then lift through 2025 driven by CRE/MF repricing—watch deposit betas and nonaccrual trajectory to validate the margin path .
- Cost actions provide cushion: workforce reductions and process improvements target
$200M/year savings; one-time Q4 charges ($100M) are a near-term drag but set up 2025 run-rate improvement . - FDIC assessment headwind is material: ~$100M annual nondeductible cost in 2025–2026 compresses earnings and moves tax rate—factor this into EPS and valuation frameworks .
- Strategic pivot to C&I: >30 senior hires; plan to grow C&I loans to ~$30B over 3–5 years with relationship deposits (2:1 loans-to-deposits goal), suggesting medium-term balance sheet rebasing and fee opportunities .
- Corporate identity and portfolio simplification: rebranding to FLG and MSR/third-party origination sale closing early November—expect continued simplification and capital optimization narrative as catalysts .
Citations:
- Q3 2024 8-K press release:
- Q3 2024 earnings call transcript:
- Q2 2024 8-K press release:
- Q1 2024 8-K press release:
Note on estimates: S&P Global consensus data was unavailable for NYCB via our connector this quarter (tool error).