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NEW YORK MORTGAGE TRUST, INC. (NYMT)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- NYMT reported a GAAP net loss to common of $(41.8)M and $(0.46) EPS in Q4, as higher benchmark rates drove $131.6M of unrealized losses, partially offset by $92.0M of hedge gains; adjusted net interest income improved sequentially to $32.6M and net interest spread widened 5 bps to 1.37% .
- Book value per share fell 5.6% QoQ to $9.28 and adjusted book value (ABV) declined 4.8% to $10.35; economic return on ABV was (2.94)%, while the $0.20 dividend was maintained .
- Deployment remained active: $362.8M of Agency RMBS and $542.3M of residential loans purchased, plus a residential loan securitization yielding ~$292.9M net proceeds; company and portfolio recourse leverage ended at 3.0x and 2.9x, respectively .
- Management emphasized recurring earnings growth and said recurring earnings are “getting close to aligning” with the $0.20 dividend; early Q1 commentary indicated ABV up ~1–2% quarter-to-date, and the Board extended large buyback authorizations, a potential catalyst given shares trade below ABV .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
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What Went Well
- Adjusted net interest income rose to $32.6M (from $28.7M in Q3) on portfolio growth in Agency RMBS and BPL loans; net interest spread improved 5 bps QoQ to 1.37% as financing costs fell with securitization and lower base rates .
- Strong capital deployment and funding: $362.8M Agency RMBS and $542.3M loans purchased; completed a loan securitization with ~$292.9M net proceeds; subsequent unsecured notes and securitization further bolstered flexibility .
- Multifamily JV wind-down advanced: sold five multifamily assets in Q4, lowering real estate losses; CFO highlighted progress in reducing the drag and lowering portfolio operating expenses by ~$1.5M QoQ .
- “Adjusted interest income rose 11% for the fourth quarter, contributing to year-over-year growth in adjusted interest income of 60%,” CEO said, underscoring the strategy to expand recurring income .
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What Went Wrong
- GAAP results pressured by marks: $131.6M unrealized losses as rates rose (impacting Agency RMBS, residential loans, SLST), partly offset by $92.0M derivative gains; realized losses of $9.9M on foreclosed properties and NPL sales .
- Book value and ABV declined: BV/share down to $9.28 (−5.6% QoQ) and ABV/share to $10.35 (−4.8% QoQ), driving a quarterly economic return on ABV of (2.94)% .
- Leverage drifted higher with deployment: company recourse leverage to 3.0x and portfolio recourse leverage to 2.9x (from 2.6x and 2.5x in Q3) .
Financial Results
Note: NYMT reports “Interest income” (REIT top-line proxy) rather than conventional “Revenue.”
Segment adjusted net interest income (non-GAAP)
Key operating KPIs
Drivers this quarter
- Higher rates into year-end widened Agency and loan marks (unrealized losses), while hedges gained; NII improved on portfolio growth and better funding mix .
- Net loss from real estate improved sequentially on asset sales/deconsolidations; portfolio operating costs fell QoQ .
Guidance Changes
No formal quantitative guidance for revenues, margins, tax, or segment targets was provided in Q4 materials .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- Strategy and earnings trajectory: “The Company’s portfolio grew by $2.2 billion, or 44%... As a result, adjusted interest income rose 11% for the fourth quarter, contributing to year-over-year growth in adjusted interest income of 60%” (CEO) .
- Valuation and capital returns: “NYMT shares traded at a 41% discount to adjusted book value at year-end… $388 million of book value or $4.29 per share potential upside to year-end market capitalization,” with further upside from discounts-to-par in assets (CEO, prepared remarks) .
- Earnings drivers: “Our net interest spread has shown improvement... increasing by 5 basis points in the quarter… our interest rate swaps… reducing our average financing cost by 38 basis points for the quarter” (CFO) .
- Dividend path: “We are getting close to aligning with our current dividend in terms of recurring earnings” (CFO, Q&A) .
- Portfolio mix: Agency RMBS at $3.1B market value (42% of assets); expect continued growth given attractive spreads into a potential easing cycle (President) .
Q&A Highlights
- Normalized/recurring earnings: Management expects recurring earnings to align with the $0.20 dividend as rotation completes and deployment continues (CFO) .
- Liquidity deployment: Plan to deploy excess liquidity across Agencies and short-duration residential credit, balancing rate and credit risks with target returns in mid-teens range for Agencies post-normalization (CEO) .
- G&A outlook: Run-rate G&A guided to ~$11–$11.5M per quarter, with opportunities to further reduce costs (CFO) .
- Book value trend: As of the call week, ABV up ~1–2% QTD in Q1’25 (President) .
- Multifamily JV exit timing: Two Florida assets (≈$19M equity) on market; two Texas assets (~$1.3M equity) improving occupancy before sale later in 2025 (CEO) .
- Allocation tilt: Expect higher allocation to Agency RMBS versus single-family mortgage loans as mezzanine portfolio pays down (CEO) .
- Securitized debt calls/re-lever: Several callable deals; will evaluate call-and-relever economics deal-by-deal (President) .
Estimates Context
- S&P Global consensus (EPS/revenue) for Q4 2024 was unavailable via our SPGI mapping for NYMT at the time of analysis; therefore, we cannot provide estimate comparisons this quarter. We will update when S&P mapping becomes available.
- Target price/consensus recommendation not cited given the same data limitation.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Near-term GAAP pressure, but core earnings vector improving: Despite $(0.46) EPS on marks, adjusted NII rose and net interest spread widened; if rates stabilize/fall, marks should moderate while NII benefits from deployment and funding mix .
- Book value sensitivity to rates remains the swing factor; hedges mitigated some pain in Q4; early Q1 ABV up ~1–2% suggests reversal potential if rates/spreads cooperate .
- Capital deployment is active and diversified (Agencies + BPL loans), with ongoing securitizations and extended buybacks providing flexibility and potential stock support, especially at a ~41% discount to ABV at YE .
- Dividend maintained at $0.20; management expects recurring earnings to align, supporting sustainability if NII momentum continues and portfolio drag from multifamily exits abates .
- Leverage is rising with Agency ramp (3.0x recourse), but funding includes nonrecourse/securitized structures; monitor leverage trajectory and repo conditions into 2025 .
- Watch catalysts: rate path (mark-to-market), Agency spread behavior, securitization execution, pace of multifamily JV exits, and any buyback activity given authorization extension .
Appendix: Additional Data Points
- Q4 unrealized losses detail: $(99.2)M investment securities (largely Agency RMBS), $(45.6)M residential loans; offset by $91.954M derivative gains (mostly swaps) .
- Q4 real estate net loss improved to $(5.9)M from $(7.5)M in Q3 on asset sales/deconsolidations; portfolio operating expenses declined QoQ .
- Q4 ABV reconciliation: $937.4M total adjusted book value; ABV/share $10.35 (common shares outstanding ~90.575M) .