O-I Glass - Q1 2024

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Hello, everyone, and welcome to the O-I Glass First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Emily, and I'll be facilitating your call today. After the presentation, there will be the opportunity for you to ask any questions, which you can do so by pressing star, followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. I will now turn the call over to our host, Chris Manuel, Vice President of Investor Relations, to begin. Please go ahead.

Chris Manuel (VP of Investor Relations)

Thank you, Emily, and welcome everyone to the O-I Glass first quarter 2024 conference call. Our discussion today will be led by Andres Lopez, our CEO, and John Haudrich, our CFO. Today, we will discuss key business developments and review our financial results. Following prepared remarks, we will host a Q&A session. Presentation materials for this call are available on the company's website. Please review the safe harbor comments and disclosure of our use of non-GAAP financial measures included in those materials. Now I'd like to turn the call over to Andres, who will start on slide three.

Andres Lopez (CEO)

Good morning, everyone, and thanks for your interest in O-I. Last night, we reported first quarter earnings of $0.45 per share. As expected, results were down from historically robust performance in the prior year period. Lower earnings primarily reflected softer demand due to the market downturn and temporary production curtailments to balance supply with lower shipments. While net price was down slightly, our margin expansion initiatives are off to a particularly good start this year. Although slower than originally anticipated, consumer consumption patterns are gradually improving, and we are encouraged by the progress in our shipment trends since the fourth quarter of last year. As conditions gradually improve, we are focused on the factors within our control.

I'm proud of the continued excellent operating performance across the enterprise, and we have increased our full-year margin expansion initiative target as we seek to optimize our 2024 results amid a slower demand. Importantly, we continue to advance MAGMA to create a long-term competitive advantage for the company, and we are excited for the startup of our first MAGMA greenfield plant in Bowling Green, Kentucky, this summer. As we look to the balance of the year, we are adjusting our full year 2024 outlook to reflect a slower market recovery, which John will review a bit later. Nevertheless, we remain confident about the long-term trajectory for glass demand, as well as stronger future earnings potential as markets recover over time. Let's turn to page four to discuss current market trends. While still soft, the commercial environment is gradually improving.

As shown on the top chart, our shipments on a year-over-year basis were down 12.5% in the first quarter, compared to a 16% decline in the fourth quarter of 2023. Additionally, April shipments show gradual improvement as demand was down about 10% from prior year on a per day basis when adjusting for the shift in the Easter holiday between 2023 and 2024. Consistent with discussions in previous calls, inventory destocking across the value chain has been a significant driver for lower shipments this past year. Destocking is in the later stages for products with a short cycle, such as beer, NABs, and food, while activity will likely continue for a couple of quarters for longer cycle products, including spirits and wine.

Additionally, consumer patterns are improving, but at a slower rate than expected, as illustrated in the bottom chart. Trends improved consistently over the course of 2023, but were choppy during the first quarter this year and lagged our expectations. Softer consumption is attributed to the factors we hear about in the news every day, such as cost inflation on food and beverage products, driving price elasticity challenges, prolonged higher interest rates and consumer confidence that remains below pre-pandemic levels. Furthermore, we have seen a limited share shift and some trade down, especially as our customers ramp up promotional activity, which tends to favor more value brands. As we look to the balance of the year, we expect shipments will improve as destocking activity drops off over the next several months.

However, we have revised our 2024 sales volume outlook to reflect a more gradual improvement in demand over the course of the year, as we now project a slower rate of consumption recovery than originally anticipated, which is shown in the circle in the lower chart. Overall, we now expect our 2024 sales volume will be flat to up low single digits compared to our prior outlook of low to mid single-digit growth. As markets improve, we anticipate long-term glass demand will continue to benefit from key megatrends such as premiumization, health and wellness, as well as increased interest in sustainability. Overall, we expect glass demand will substantially recover to pre-pandemic levels over time. Importantly, we are well positioned to take advantage of the rebound as it unfolds.

Now, I'll turn it over to John, who will review our first quarter performance and updated 2024 outlook in more detail, starting on page five.

John Haudrich (CFO)

Thanks, Andres, and good morning, everyone. O-I reported first quarter earnings of $0.45 per share. Consistent with their expectation, results were down from historically high earnings of $1.29 per share last year. As illustrated, earnings primarily reflected a decline in segment operating profit, while slightly higher non-operating expense was mostly offset by some favorable FX. Additional details on non-operating items are included in the slide. Let's turn to page six and discuss recent performance across our two segments.

The Americas posted segment operating profit of $102 million, which was down from $176 million last year. Net price was a slight headwind, and sales volume was down 15%. Elevated operating costs reflected significant temporary production curtailment to balance supply with demand, which was partially offset by favorable margin expansion initiative benefits. In Europe, segment operating profit totaled $133 million, down from $222 million last year. Like the Americas, net price was a modest headwind, and sales volumes were down 10%. Higher operating costs reflected the impact of elevated temporary production curtailments, lower JV performance, and prior year energy credits that did not repeat. These headwinds were partially offset by benefits from our margin expansion initiative program.

Let's turn to page seven to discuss our updated 2024 business outlook. As noted on the left, we have adjusted our full year earnings guidance for a few factors. Net price is stable, yet we have reduced our sales growth expectations, reflecting a longer destocking process and a more gradual improvement in consumer consumption patterns than originally anticipated. Given softer demand, we intend to take incremental production curtailments to ensure inventories remain in check. Importantly, we are accelerating our curtailment activity in the second quarter following the softer start of the year. To help mitigate slower sales growth, we have increased our full year initiative benefit target to at least $175 million. Finally, our outlook has been impacted by unfavorable FX trends, higher interest rates, given the change in the forward curve, and a higher tax rate.

As a result, we now expect adjusted earnings should approximate $1.50-$2 per share, compared to our prior outlook of $2.25-$2.65 per share, and we have updated our view of quarterly earnings allocation. Free cash flow should range between $100 million-$150 million, reflecting lower earnings, partially offset by other favorable cash levers, including moderately lower CapEx. We intend to maintain a healthy balance sheet position and expect to end the year with leverage both in the low threes, which will naturally decrease as volumes and earnings recover. As Andres discussed, we believe current market conditions are temporary. While it will likely take longer than originally anticipated, earnings should rebound when sales and production volumes substantially return to pre-pandemic levels.

Now I'll turn it back to Andres, who will provide an update on our key strategic objectives on page eight.

Andres Lopez (CEO)

Thanks, John. Despite the market downturn, we continue to execute on the five key priorities we established this year to enable our long-term strategy. We are off to a good start with our margin expansion initiatives, which are helping offset some of the current market pressures. As noted, we have increased our full-year target, which includes planned restructuring activities in 2024 that are now substantially complete. We will continue to evaluate our network requirements as future market trends unfold. At the same time, we are expanding our business to enable profitable growth. As I will discuss further on the next page, our MAGMA greenfield project remains on schedule, and we continue to advance attractive expansion projects while others remain on hold, pending further market recovery. All MAGMA R&D is advancing well, and we remain on track for our first Gen 3 deployment in 2026.

Likewise, we recently approved two new Ultra lines in Europe to support increasing customer interest in lighter weight packaging. Our ESG efforts are progressing well, and our 2024 capital plan includes all key projects that enable our long-term sustainability roadmap. Furthermore, we are excited that the U.S. Department of Energy has selected O-I to receive up to $125 million in funding over the next few years to accelerate deployment of industrial decarbonization technologies. Finally, we intend to maintain a healthy balance sheet, as John discussed. Overall, we are off to a good start this year as we advance our long-term strategy. More on MAGMA on page nine. Our heritage network is a great fit for many of the categories that we have served for decades, and will continue to serve into the future.

However, markets have evolved, and we now see greater brand proliferation and increased product fragmentation. MAGMA reimagines the entire glassmaking process to serve a more differentiated market. MAGMA is more flexible, scalable, and can be more rapidly deployed. It is smaller and will fit into an industrial warehouse, which lowers future capital intensity and operating costs. Furthermore, MAGMA can be near located or co-located to reduce logistics costs and is designed around sustainability from the ground up. In short, MAGMA is designed to meet the market requirements for today and into the future. We are nearing an important milestone, and we expect to start up our first MAGMA greenfield in either late July or early August. Located in Kentucky, which includes nearly 100 whiskey distillers, this new plant is an example of how MAGMA can enable profitable growth in attractive, fragmented markets. Let's turn to page 10.

We believe Magma and Ultra will increase O-I's right to win in the marketplace. In particular, increased flexibility, scalability, and rapid deployment will create key benefits for O-I across attractive, differentiated markets and categories. Overall, Magma and Ultra together represent a major leap forward and should expand O-I's total addressable market by over 30%. We look forward to hosting investors and customers at our new greenfield facility in the future, which will demonstrate all our innovative technologies that will create a new competitive advantage for O-I, and enable glass to win in the marketplace. Please move to page 11 for some final remarks. O-I continues to navigate well through challenging macro conditions and delivered solid first quarter results, despite softer-than-expected shipping levels.

While we have revised our current year outlook to reflect a slower than anticipated market recovery, we are taking the right steps to position the company for future success. We are properly aligning supply with lower demand, and we have increased our already record high target for margin expansion initiative benefits. Despite the short-term challenges, we remain confident in the long-term positive trajectory of glass packaging, and we are well-positioned for the rebound, which should significantly improve future earnings over time. Importantly, we are excited for the start-up of our first MAGMA greenfield plant this summer as we align our business to the future of glass packaging. Before we take your questions, I would like to end with a few reflections on my time as CEO. Over the past several years, we have significantly transformed the company, and we are now a much more disciplined, agile, and capable organization.

After stabilizing our operations, the team significantly enhanced our ability to execute, and we have consistently delivered on our commitments. We rebalanced our network, expanding our Americas footprint and divesting non-core assets. We have reduced risk and improved our cash flow profile with the fair and final resolution of our legacy asbestos liabilities, and we have the best balance sheet in nearly a decade. While improving core performance and optimizing our business structure, we also developed new breakthrough technologies that will create a new competitive advantage for years to come. I'm proud of what we have accomplished, and would like to thank the O-I family for all that we have accomplished together. I would also like to thank each of you in the investment community for the interest in O-I over the years. The best is yet to come.

Speaking on behalf of Gordon Hardie, our incoming CEO, he's actively engaged in the transition. He's looking forward to joining the O-I team in mid-May and meeting with the investment community in the near future. Gordon has served on the O-I board for over eight years and knows the company well. With his years of experience working in the food and beverage industry, including some of our customers, he's well-positioned to lead the company into the future. Thank you, and we're now ready to address your questions.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question today, you can do so now by pressing star, followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you change your mind and would like to be removed from the queue, please press star and then two. We ask that you please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up, and please re-queue for any further questions. Our first question today comes from the line of Ghansham Panjabi with Baird. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.

Ghansham Panjabi (Senior Research Analyst)

Thank you. Good morning, everybody. And, hey, Andres, congrats on your retirement and also on your, you know, very impressive legacy you're leaving behind. Wish you well for the future.

Andres Lopez (CEO)

Thank you.

Ghansham Panjabi (Senior Research Analyst)

Yeah. So I guess first off, you know, in terms of the volume adjustments relative to the prior guidance, are there any notable categories that are driving that sort of derating, if you will? Or is it just broad-based at this point?

Andres Lopez (CEO)

I think it is broad-based, with the exception of the Andean countries, which is the place where we invested on expansion. That is performing quite well. And in fact, the Colombia specifically is growing year-over-year in the mid-teens. Every other market is experiencing this slowdown, with some markets having more destocking impact, for example, the spirits in North America or the spirits in Mexico because of tequila. But for the most part, it is everywhere, with the exception of the Andean countries and specifically Colombia.

John Haudrich (CFO)

Hey, Ghansham, I would add, if you take a look on a category basis, consistent with Andres said, we're seeing the best recovery and improvement in the beer category. But it is choppy across the different markets. As Andres mentioned, down in Colombia, for example, is doing quite well. In some other markets, it's still kind of flattish to down a little bit. But overall, we've seen the most improvement in beer, which again, is one of your shorter cycle areas, as we mentioned, that the destocking is substantially complete and we're seeing that improve.

Yet you're still seeing that Wine and Spirits category down, still kind of down in that low to mid single digits, and with the expectation it might drag on a little bit longer, given the consumer consumption in that area is softer, and it might take a little bit longer for that area to destock.

Ghansham Panjabi (Senior Research Analyst)

Got it. Thank you. And then in terms of, you know, the destocking specific to Wine and Spirits, you know, what sort of timeline is realistic as it relates to the destocking component? And then also just given the weakness you're seeing across the board, I know you have a lot of contracted business, but, you know, just touch on maybe the competitive activity across the different regions, just given sort of a lower for longer, you know, volume dynamic. Thank you.

Andres Lopez (CEO)

So, with regards to the destocking, we're seeing some interesting evolution lately. Demand trends are changing as we speak. So we're seeing some interesting evolution. With regards to the spirits and wine, we expect this to continue through the second half, improving along the way, but it should be recovering in the second half overall.

John Haudrich (CFO)

As far as the competitive environment, you know, the only thing I think we can add is that we are managing our business as we have over the last several years, to really balance supply with demand and be very, very, very crisp on our inventory levels, so that we maintain the proper balance within our system. Really can't comment too much on the competitors.

Ghansham Panjabi (Senior Research Analyst)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Mike Roxland with Truist Securities. Please go ahead, Mike.

Michael Roxland (Managing Director)

Thank you, Andres, John, and Chris, for taking my questions. Andres, congratulations and best of luck in your retirement.

Andres Lopez (CEO)

Thank you.

Michael Roxland (Managing Director)

Just on my first question, in terms of the accelerating curtailment activity, is that mostly occurring in the Americas? Is there something that specifically happened because you sounded a little more confident last quarter. You also were at a conference in late February where you reiterated your guide. So I'm wondering if something happened between the conference or versus last quarter that where you become more cautious and I understand that the backdrop is volatile, the consumer is volatile, but has something really happened more recently to increase your cautiousness and negatively affect your outlook?

Andres Lopez (CEO)

So curtailments have been more pronounced in the Americas, as you mentioned. Now, as we entered the year, we had an expectation with regards to the pace of destocking as well as the consumer consumption levels. Now, Q4, with all the data we have, was the lowest point in the year-on-year comps for us. Q1 showed an improvement versus Q4, and April is showing an improvement versus Q1. Now, we had a pretty slow March, and that's what made the Q1 so low. Now, with all that in mind, and with the latest information at hand, we see destocking is taking a little longer than we originally anticipated, so we are correcting that. And consumer consumption is recovering, but it's recovering at a slower pace. Now, there are some encouraging signs.

For example, when we look at the wine in Europe, wine out of Italy, the exports are growing year on year in the latest data that we have, for example. But then we got to see that to continue for the balance of the year. There is some positive evolution in beer and wine inside Italy at this point. There is improved performance of beer in North Central Europe. So all of this is unfolding as we speak, and that makes it a little bit more challenging. But we believe we now corrected that volume based on the latest information we have, and more in line with the actual, destocking pace, as well as the level of consumer consumption.

John Haudrich (CFO)

Yeah, Mike, what I would add is, if you take a look at the curtailment activity, we had about 8% curtailment in the first quarter, which was kind of in align, maybe a little higher than the, the sales volume decline that we were expecting in the first quarter going into the period. Obviously, the, the actual, you know, the decline was bigger than that. So we are stepping up the curtailment activity. It'll probably be anywhere between 10%-12% level of our curtailment over the balance of the year, with probably the peak being in the second quarter here as we catch up for, you know, adjusting for a little bit of slowness in, in the, in the first quarter.

As we look to where, as Andres mentioned, we have been most active in our curtailment in the Americas, and so probably incrementally more curtailment will be occurring in Europe as we look to rebalance everything over the course of the year.

Michael Roxland (Managing Director)

Got it. Thank you for that color. And then just for my follow-up, can you mention or comment on any additional opportunities you have in MAGMA to partly offset this additional demand weakness? You mentioned raising the target to over $175 million for the year. It sounds like you've accomplished a number of projects to achieve that target thus far. But what else, I mean, what above and beyond the $150 million or even the $175 million, do you have at your disposal to help offset some of this persistent demand weakness? Thank you.

Andres Lopez (CEO)

Yeah, so we see opportunities in multiple markets. MAGMA, given its flexibility, scalability, time to market, and many other things, lower capital intensity, lower total cost of ownership, the ability to collocate or near locate, has many opportunities for MAGMA. So for example, what we're doing right now in Kentucky is to put capacity right where the demand is for these craft distillers, making capacity available for them to be able to guarantee their supply. Like that, you will be able to map similar situations across the United States and in other markets. And there are enough opportunities already identified to support a larger scale deployment, starting once Gen 3 is concluded.

We mentioned here that it is, MAGMA is very good for fragmented premium market, which is high value, and that's where we're focusing our efforts and our plans at this point.

John Haudrich (CFO)

And Mike, to your question on what's driving the additional benefits we're looking for in the margin expansion initiatives going from $150 million to $175 million. Keep in mind, $75 million of that is related to restructuring of various facilities or SG&A reductions that we made decisions on in the fourth quarter of last year. All that work is substantially done, and so we are at the run rate of that benefit already. And so that certainly helped us in the first quarter and gives us the confidence. So we really are looking at another $100 million above that, and if you look at historically how the company has performed on these initiatives, that's in our wheelhouse.

One thing I would add is a big shout out to the operations team. We're seeing the best performance in the operation in seven years, and that is providing us a backdrop of being able to drive more benefits in that regard. And we are shifting some of our capital spend a little bit less on growth right now because of the softness in the market and a little bit more towards cost-related projects, automation, things like that. That's sustaining additional benefits this year, but also really build the pipeline for continued benefits and continued margin expansions into the future.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Arun Viswanathan (Senior Equity Analyst)

Great, thanks for taking my question. I guess, yeah, again, I just wanted to go back to the volume front. So do you think it's possible that we revert to, say, a flattish or a zero or a 1% growth, trajectory, maybe in the back half of this year, especially facing easy comps in Q3, Q4, and maybe some capacity additions and your MAGMA build-out? And, is that kind of where you place long-term glass demand or do you think there's been some structural weakness now that we should revert to maybe a lower growth rate?

Andres Lopez (CEO)

Our expectation is that we will go back to pre-pandemic levels, and the same is the perspective of our customers. Every customer we talk to is planning to go back to pre-pandemic or slightly higher, depending on the industry in which they are. Now, as the destocking finalizes, which has been the largest driver of our sales drop, and consumer comes back up, we should be able to start seeing that level of performance. Knowing exactly where that is going to fall is difficult, but our expectation is that we're gonna later in the year, and actually in the year, will be a much different pace when compared to today.

John Haudrich (CFO)

Yeah, yeah, to build off of that, Arun, I would say that right now, we're in a mode where we are recovering to, as Andres said, that pre-pandemic basis, as the consumer gradually starts to improve, as we mentioned. So I think it's a little early to be able to call long-term trends, because we have to see a little bit more there. But as we look at what's driving the softness, you know, right now, whether it's destocking or whether it's just kind of the macros and things like that, it's too early to make a call that there's any change in the drivers for our business over the long term. So we haven't really changed that perspective yet. Now, to your question about the back half of the year, too.

So it's included in our materials on page four. We do expect things in the back half of the year to be up mid-single digits or high single digits. Again, to your kind of what you're alluding to, there are easier comps. We were down, you know, mid-teens last year, so we will be comping, you know, those to be able to give us stronger growth overall to recovering in time to, to pre-pandemic levels, and then we'll see the, the longer-term trends unfold.

Andres Lopez (CEO)

Mm-hmm. And everything we are describing.

Arun Viswanathan (Senior Equity Analyst)

Great, thank you.

Andres Lopez (CEO)

Answering your question, doesn't include any deployment of MAGMA.

John Haudrich (CFO)

Yeah, correct.

Arun Viswanathan (Senior Equity Analyst)

Oh, great. And then just real quickly on price costs. So, I think, you know, you may have addressed this, but, you know, you wanted to hold on to, say, 2/3 of your pricing, that was put in place over the last couple of years. Do you still feel comfortable with that, cadence? Especially, you know, given that we've potentially seen, you know, some, some further deflation on the raw side, or how would you kind of characterize your outlook for price cost, after this report? Thanks.

John Haudrich (CFO)

Yeah. Well, what I first say, you know, price cost this year, as we said, it's stable with our original outlook of, of some pressure of, you know, you know, call it a little over $200 million or so of, of price cost pressure. We have not changed that. What we've seen is a, a little bit of a softening in cost inflation, right? And most of that's on the energy side, a little bit in raw materials, and, and price has been adjusted a little bit, primarily because, for example, the, the energy adjustments coming in North America get passed through our to our customers pretty quickly. As, as we look to the overall backdrop of cost inflation, we're looking, again, low single-digit cost inflation coming off a little bit of what we were thinking.

Keep in mind, you know, more than half of our business is under long-term agreements with price adjustment formula. So as we go into next year, there should be a natural continued recovery component of that. I think it's a little early to talk about the overall price, you know, marketplace going forward, but I believe that if you take a look at the history of this company over, with the exception of, you know, the last year or so here, we've historically been a business that's been either neutral or a little bit of positive on net price in a more balanced environment, with this demand comes back into a little bit more of normalized environment. So we believe that that's still the fundamental backdrop for our business.

Of course, we just got to work through a little bit of the transition here, as we're referring to on the call.

Arun Viswanathan (Senior Equity Analyst)

Thanks.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from George Staphos with Bank of America. Please go ahead. Your line is now open.

George Staphos (Managing Director)

Thanks so much. Hi, everyone. Good morning. Thanks for the details. Andres, again, congratulations on your retirement and everything that you accomplished at O-I, and the support of our research.

Andres Lopez (CEO)

Thank you.

George Staphos (Managing Director)

I guess I want to come back to the extent that your customers had a view on this, what was the reason, in your view, that March wound up being a little bit weaker than anticipated? You're not alone in that regard. I'm not trying to pick on O-I. It seemed like March was a little bit softer than expected, even when adjusting for days, for a lot of our companies, what was your customer base saying in that regard, and why you feel comfortable that things do, in fact, improve into 2Q? The second question, again, related to what your customers are saying, and to some degree, you already covered it, saying it's too early to call it perhaps, is that, you know, as you look out the next couple of years, what worries you most about the volume outlook?

What gives you the most confidence in the volume outlook? Destocking or the recovery from destocking, consumption, and/or its recovery, and/or changing consumer taste. There's been some discussion in the trade about change in consumer taste, trade down, and consumers moving away from traditional spirits. What are your customers saying in that regard relative to your demand outlook? Thank you.

Andres Lopez (CEO)

Okay, so it's difficult to know exactly what happened in March, but there are some things that might be impacting the numbers. For example, customers taking the opportunity to drastically reduce inventories before quarter end. The other thing is that some of the customers have a fiscal year that was ending or about to end, so most likely they're taking actions related to that, and then we'll have a more normal operation going into the second half of the year. Because of the excess capacity at this point, we expect that the typical seasonal demand that we see wouldn't necessarily apply because customers have access to product right away. So they didn't need to fill in advance or buy in advance and fill in advance to be prepared for the season.

So those are some of the reasons, but it's difficult to know.

George Staphos (Managing Director)

Sure.

Andres Lopez (CEO)

I think what's encouraging for us is that April has been a lot better than March and certainly better than Q1, too. So that's reassuring that we are in the path to improve. Now, obviously, defining exactly the pace and the timing is a little difficult. When we look two years out, there is some talk about changing in trends, but we still got to see that materializing. As we've seen before, some trends come up and then disappear, too. They fade away, so it's a little early to talk about that. I think what's good in our horizon is while we are enduring a significant volume and slowdown at this point, the company is in a very good place operationally, and our operating leverage upside is very large.

So as volumes come back, we're gonna ride the wave, and it's gonna be positive.

John Haudrich (CFO)

The one thing I would add in that is, and we brought this point up in the last call, is our pipeline for new product development is very, very strong. So to us, that is a signal from our customers that they are looking to invigorate their brands and bring them forward and address whatever changes in consumer taste and trends that are out there. And like Andres said, it's a very volatile environment, and you know, you go back into the pandemic, and people are drinking very significant amount. You know, now there's a little bit of softness that you're referencing, and it's very difficult to find out what is a longer-term trend and what is a reaction to a different environment. So time will tell.

Andres Lopez (CEO)

That activity on NPD is in all segments, in all geographies, and is a lot higher than we've seen in years. So, it's both initiated by O-I and initiated by the customers.

George Staphos (Managing Director)

Thank you, gentlemen.

Andres Lopez (CEO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Anthony Pettinari with Citi. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Bryan Burgmeier (Equity Research Analyst)

Actually, Bryan Burgmeier sitting in for Anthony. Thank you for taking the question. Maybe just following up on Arun's question. You know, if I think about O-I having maybe about 10% of capacity on the sidelines this year, when does that start to create some risk for year-end pricing negotiations in Europe? You know, I'm just thinking about sort of the historical relationship between curtailments and price, and, you know, I guess, does this level of curtailments usually support flat to positive price for O-I?

John Haudrich (CFO)

Well, what I would say is, at the end of the day, it comes down to balancing your inventories and making sure that the inventory situation is in the right place for whatever the market conditions are. And at O-I, that's what we are managing to, is to make sure that our inventory is in the year in a reasonably snug position. And I can't speak for the broader marketplace, but we believe that is the most important thing that we, as a company, can do, to position the company for future success.

Bryan Burgmeier (Equity Research Analyst)

Got it. Got it. Makes sense. And, you know, maybe George just touched on this, but I'm just wanting to dig into the trade downs that you flagged in the prepared remarks a little bit. I'm just trying to think if it's, are you referring to people maybe moving from wine to beer? Is it moving from a higher end bottle to a lower end bottle? Is it moving from glass to a different substrate? Just any detail there. Thanks. I'll turn it over, and good luck in the quarter.

Andres Lopez (CEO)

Yeah. So the trade down activity is concentrated in some markets, so it's, it's not everywhere, and for the most part, it's linked to promotional activity. So every time customers move forward with significant promotions, those are typically in a lower cost package, and that's where the trade down happens. But we've seen also in some of those markets, a start of a rebound and the consumption of glass, for example, in April was positive year-on-year in markets that presented that before.

John Haudrich (CFO)

I think we've seen some mixed trends, too. So, for example, we flagged this one last quarter, too, is that, you know, there was some trade down effect, you know, with beer in Eastern Europe. By the same token, we're seeing very strong, you know, market share position for glass in the Netherlands, and in Colombia, and in other marketplaces like that. So I think we got, you know, there, there's no one universal answer about what's going on out there. You see it market by market, category by category.

Operator (participant)

Before we take our next question, as a reminder, if you would like to ask a question today, you can do so now by pressing star, followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. Our next question comes from the line of Gabe Hajde with Wells Fargo Securities. Gabe, please go ahead.

Gabe Hajde (Equity Research Analyst)

Andres, congratulations. John, Chris, good morning.

Andres Lopez (CEO)

Thank you, Gabe.

Gabe Hajde (Equity Research Analyst)

Maybe much like. Yep. Maybe much like you, you all are focusing on the controllables, maybe, focusing just on the sort of more near-term outlook. It wasn't clear if April volumes, whether on a day-adjusted basis or otherwise, were positive for you all in terms of shipments. And then just confidence level in the near term, kind of second quarter view that it looks like from the chart shipments will be flattish. Maybe we'll start there.

John Haudrich (CFO)

Yeah, yeah, Gabe, for clarity, our actual shipments in April were up 3%, okay? That also benefited from the timing of Easter. If you normalize for the Easter period, it was down about 10% on a per-day basis, and that compares to the first quarter when things were down about 12.5%. So we have seen some trend in the positive. That's but that's obviously a little slower of an improvement than what we had originally anticipated. So March was a bit softer, as Andres mentioned. April is improving, but also maybe a little slower than we anticipated with the backdrop of the you know, looking at the Nielsen data with a little bit of a slower consumer.

But as we take a look at that, and you see it on that page four in the lower right-hand corner, we have calibrated our growth expectations for each quarter of the year for a revised view of a softer consumer recovery pattern. And so we believe, you know, with April being up 3%, on an absolute basis, and then things playing out more on a normalized basis over the balance of the month, we should be in that kind of plus or minus a fairly narrow range of breakeven in the second quarter, and then stronger volume, reported volumes in the back half as we see that gradual recovery, but also an easier comp against the prior year numbers.

Gabe Hajde (Equity Research Analyst)

Yep. Okay. One country, you guys talked about the Andean region and Colombia, but we didn't hear much about Brazil. Again, a lot going on there in terms of what we're hearing from a competing substrate. Seems like aluminum is maybe better hedged this year or maybe cheaper from a sourcing standpoint. You know, just as that happens, and we get more sanctions and things like that, and costs move up. Just curious how long maybe of a lead time you have in terms of discussions with your customers for pack mix down in Brazil, and then just maybe current commentary on what you're seeing. Thank you.

Andres Lopez (CEO)

Yeah. So the, the economy in Brazil has been performing, quite stable, so it didn't go through what the other economies are going through. It's been, it's been okay. Now, our performance, so, the performance of glass in beer is, is very solid. It is driven by premium, and just to give you an idea, year to date, first quarter, year-on-year, one-way growth is 5.3%, which is well ahead of, growth in the other substrates. Now, it is, important to take in consideration that when other substrates talk about their demand, they include carbonated soft drinks in one-way, which is a, a segment in which we don't participate that much. So, so that's driving a lot of what they, are experiencing.

For us, a very important category in the country is beer, and beer is doing quite well. As we said before, the returnability improved over time after the pandemic, so the percentage of the total volume of beer packed in returnable glass increased, and it remains up.

Gabe Hajde (Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. Thank you.

John Haudrich (CFO)

Thank you.

Chris Manuel (VP of Investor Relations)

Okay, guys. That concludes.

Operator (participant)

We have no more questions.

Chris Manuel (VP of Investor Relations)

Our earnings call. Thank you, Emily. That concludes our call. I would note that our second quarter call is scheduled for Wednesday, July 31. As a reminder, make it a memorable event by choosing safe, sustainable glass. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. This concludes our call, and you may now disconnect your line.