O-I Glass - Earnings Call - Q1 2025

Executive Summary

• Adjusted EPS of $0.40 beat Wall Street consensus $0.24 and revenue of $1.567B was slightly above consensus $1.561B; EBITDA modestly missed ($269M vs $274M). Guidance for FY25 adjusted EPS $1.20–$1.50 and FCF $150–$200M was reaffirmed. EPS*, Revenue*, EBITDA*, Estimates count*.
• Americas strength (SOP $141M, +38% YoY) offset Europe weakness (SOP $68M, -49% YoY) amid temporary curtailments and price pressure; EBT fell to $18M on $80M restructuring.
• Fit to Win delivered $61M savings in Q1, ahead of plan; management raised savings target to at least $250M in 2025 and $650M cumulatively by 2027.
• Macro/trade uncertainty emerged as near-term headwind (April volumes down 1–2% in Europe categories exposed to exports); management remains cautious but sees potential substrate tailwinds from aluminum tariffs and domestic glass advantage.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Americas SOP rose to $141M (vs $102M), supported by >4% volume growth, stable net price, $27M Fit to Win benefits, and a $7M insurance settlement; capacity remained tight and no material curtailments.
• Fit to Win savings of $61M exceeded plan; management is “confident” in achieving $250M in 2025 and $650M by 2027. “Momentum is building…we remain confident in achieving our savings targets” — CEO Gordon Hardie.
• Guidance reaffirmed: FY25 adjusted EPS $1.20–$1.50 (+50–85% YoY) and FCF $150–$200M, supported by cost actions and lower capex ($400–$450M).

What Went Wrong

• Europe SOP fell to $68M (vs $133M) on lower net price, elevated competitive pressures, and unabsorbed fixed costs from curtailments to reduce inventory; segment margin declined despite ~4% volume growth.
• Reported diluted EPS was a loss of ($0.10) vs $0.45 last year, driven by $80M restructuring/impairment charges; EBT margin compressed to 1.1% (vs 7.3% YoY).
• April shipments softened 1–2% (adjusted for Easter), notably in European wine/spirits categories exposed to exports, prompting caution on near-term sales volume outlook (stable full-year).

Transcript

Operator (participant)

welcome to the O-I Glass First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Elliott, and I'll be your coordinator today. If you would like to register a question during today's event, please press star one on your telephone keypad. I'd now like to hand over to Chris Manuel, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Chris Manuel (VP of Investor Relations)

Thank you, Elliott, and welcome everyone to the O-I Glass First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. Our discussion today will be led by Gordon Hardie, our CEO, and John Haudrich, our CFO. Following prepared remarks, we will host a Q&A session. Presentation materials for today's call are available on the company's website. Please review the safe harbor comments and disclosure of our use of non-GAAP financial measures included in those materials. Now, I'd like to turn the call over to Gordon, who will start on slide three.

Gordon Hardie (President and CEO)

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for your interest in O-I Glass. Today, we will walk you through our first quarter 2025 performance, key market trends, and outlook for the rest of the year. First, I would like to take this opportunity to thank all my colleagues at O-I across the world for their efforts in this first quarter and for their agility and focus on driving the changes needed to turn O-I around. Last night, we reported first quarter adjusted earnings of $0.40 per share, while down from last year, results significantly exceeded our plan due to stronger-than-anticipated sales volume and Fit to Win benefits. Market conditions have continued to gradually recover, and our shipments increased by more than 4% compared to last year. Additionally, our Fit to Win program generated savings of $61 million, which was a significant contributor to our better-than-expected results.

Strong demand and initiative benefits helped offset expected headwinds, including lower net price and scheduled temporary production curtailments. Looking at our business units, segment operating profit improved significantly in the Americas, reflecting healthier fundamentals and benefit from strategic initiatives. In Europe, results trended down, giving lower net price and temporary production downtime, which was partially mitigated by solid Fit to Win benefits. Overall, we are off to a strong start this year and are successfully managing the elements within our control. As such, we are reaffirming our full year 2025 guidance and expect adjusted earnings to improve between 50% and 85% from 2024.

John will discuss our outlook further, including an initial view on how changing global trade policies could affect the business. In summary, then, we are pleased with our year-to-date performance trend despite some anticipated lag in Europe, and we aim to deliver robust financial performance throughout the year.

Let's now turn to page four to discuss current market trends. Overall, conditions continued to gradually improve, and our shipments were up 4.4% in the first quarter. Solid growth reflected some rebuilding of packaging inventories across the value chain, benefits from recent contract negotiations supported by multi-year cost improvement plans, and likely some advanced purchases ahead of new tariff policies. Shipments were up more than 4% across the Americas. Here, we see inventory normalization overall, as well as more structural demand improvement in Latin America, together with the positive impact of some expanded contracts in North America. Volumes increased in nearly all markets, driven by a strong rebound in beer and spirits, with solid growth in food. Volumes grew nearly 4% in Europe, driven by customer inventory rebuilding and some buying ahead of tariffs for export customers.

As with the Americas, shipments increased in nearly all markets and categories, with most growth coming from beer, wine, as well as food. Currently, we are addressing excess capacity in Europe through temporary curtailments, and we are in consultation with the European and local works councils regarding long-term restructuring actions. These efforts should improve our competitive position and support profitable growth. Shipment activity has been encouraging, and our volumes are up about 3% year-to-date through April. Recently, we've seen some softer demand amid elevated uncertainty of new tariff policies, which may continue to impact near-term shipments. As such, we are maintaining a cautious commercial outlook as well as our original sales volume guidance. We will reassess our 2025 sales volume outlook mid-year as trends evolve.

Let's now turn to page five and discuss progress on our Fit to Win program, which aims to radically reduce total enterprise cost as well as optimize our entire network and value chain to support future profitable growth. We generated $61 million in savings during the first quarter alone, which exceeded our initial plan. Momentum is building, and we are confident that we will achieve our targets of $250 million in 2025 and $650 million cumulatively by 2027. Phase A of our Fit to Win program is focused on reshaping our SG&A structure and initial network realignment to meet current market needs. Phase B seeks to fundamentally transform costs across the value chain, including the implementation of our Total Organization Effectiveness program to optimize capacity within the system. Regarding Phase A, we have now completed all actions required to secure our $100 million SG&A savings target in 2025.

Initial network optimization actions are well underway, and we are confident that we will achieve our 2025 goal. Likewise, additional efforts are in progress to achieve our 2027 targets. We have also kicked off our phase B initiatives. As we look to transform our cost base, the team has already made initial progress across several procurement programs, as well as efforts to improve efficiency and reduce energy utilization. Finally, our Total Organization Effectiveness program is ramping up nicely. We successfully completed the pilot implementation at our Toano, Virginia plant, where we see significant performance improvements and lower inventory levels. Based on those results, we will begin the broader rollout starting in May 2025, which should be completed by the end of 2026. Importantly, many plants have initiated savings programs based on the TOE principles ahead of the formal rollout, generating early savings.

In summary, our Fit to Win program is delivering strong benefits, and we are making solid progress towards our savings target. We are confident in our ability to achieve our goals, enhance operational performance, and are well positioned for continued success throughout the year. I will now turn it over to John, who will review our first quarter performance and our 2025 outlook in more detail starting on page six.

John Haudrich (CFO)

Thanks, Gordon. Good morning, everyone. O-I reported first quarter adjusted earnings of $0.40 per share, while down from last year. Results surpassed management's expectations due to stronger-than-anticipated sales volume growth and higher Fit to Win benefits. As you can see on the left, adjusted earnings was down modestly from the prior year. Single-digit sales volume growth and significant Fit to Win benefits mostly offset anticipated headwinds, including lower net price and ongoing temporary production curtailments to reduce inventory. Looking to the right, segment operating profit was up in the Americas, but down in Europe. Results improved significantly in Americas, reflecting strong demand, stable net price amid tight capacity, and around $27 million of Fit to Win benefits. Consistent with our expectations, earnings were down in Europe, while sales volume was up nearly 4%. Net price was ahead reflecting competitive pressures and excess capacity.

We did incur about $58 million of unabsorbed fixed costs as we curtailed significant capacity to draw down inventories, which was partially offset by $20 million of Fit to Win benefits as well as other savings. Importantly, results should improve in the second half of the year as inventory reduction activities moderate and we generate greater initiative benefits following current restructuring actions. As we focus on economic profit, we have made very good progress on reducing inventory across the enterprise, which is down around $225 million from the same time last year. Furthermore, we are on track to meet or be below our year-end 2025 target of less than 50 days IDS. In summary, we're off to a strong start this year. Despite some headwinds, results exceeded our expectations heading in the quarter, and we are well positioned for continued success throughout the year.

Let's turn to page seven and discuss our business outlook. We are reaffirming our full year 2025 guidance. Adjusted earnings should range between $1.20 and $1.50 per share, which represents a 50%-85% improvement from fiscal year 2024. Significantly higher adjusted earnings should reflect ongoing efforts to enhance our operational performance, reduce costs, and capture market opportunities. Likewise, we expect a significant rebound in free cash flow boosted by strong operating performance improvement and lower CapEx investment requirements. We have also provided a directional sense of how our annual earnings will unfold by quarter. Based on a strong start to the year, our full year performance is currently tracking towards the high end of our earnings guidance range. However, we are maintaining our original business outlook given the uncertainty related to new tariff policies, which we will discuss further as we turn to page eight.

Changes in global trade policies will likely be disruptive in the short term and may create both new challenges and opportunities, which cannot be fully determined at this stage. As illustrated in the chart, about 14% of our global sales volume crosses the border between the U.S. and other nations. This includes both empty and filled bottles. We estimate that only 4.5% is currently exposed to new tariffs. This primarily relates to imports of filled containers from Europe, while most cross-border sales between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada are exempt under the USMCA Treaty. As such, we face a limited direct tariff exposure so far. The bigger unknown is how elevated market uncertainty may impact the consumer and demand elasticity. While we face a few challenges, there are potential opportunities.

Glass is a local business, and around 85% of the value chain is within 300 miles of the plant, so we do not rely on a global supply chain, which is more exposed to tariffs. Favorable substrate dynamics may emerge as there are currently sector-specific tariffs on aluminum. Likewise, domestic glass production is now significantly more competitive compared to imports from China, given new tariffs. Next, O-I has the largest glass network in the U.S., so we are well positioned to take advantage of opportunities that emerge, especially if consumption shifts to more domestic products over time. Finally, policy changes have already led to sizable shifts in currency exchange rates that are helping improve earnings translation. Naturally, we are working with our partners in the value chain to mitigate risk and capture opportunities.

Overall, we continue to believe our best long-term strategy is to improve the competitive position of the company through Fit to Win. Now I'll turn it back to Gordon, who will conclude our discussion on page nine.

Gordon Hardie (President and CEO)

Thanks, John. In conclusion, O-I is well positioned for a strong year ahead. We are off to a fast start. We expect our performance and earnings in 2025 will rebound from prior year levels as we implement our Fit to Win initiatives. While changes in the global trade policies create uncertainties, we are executing our long-term value creation roadmap as illustrated on the right and discussed at length during last month's Investor Day. Importantly, these actions are largely within our control. We are confident in our ability to achieve our goals, deliver strong future financial performance, and create shareholder value. Thank you for your attention, and we look forward to taking your questions.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, please press star followed by two. When preparing to ask a question, please ensure your device is unmuted locally. Today, we ask you to limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Our first question comes from George Staphos with Bank of America. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Geroge Staphos (Managing Director)

Thanks very much, Elliott. Good morning. Thank you for the details.

Gordon Hardie (President and CEO)

Good morning.

Geroge Staphos (Managing Director)

Good morning. I guess the question I had to start is, can you talk a bit about any prebuy effects you've sort of touched on within your, you know, what kind of volume effect might that be that has to reverse itself in the back half of the year or whenever? Also, can you talk a little bit about some of the work you're doing on TOE and Toano and elsewhere and why that supports your overall Fit to Win goals? So prebuy and then TOE and what you're seeing in Toano. Thank you.

John Haudrich (CFO)

Yeah, George, thanks for the question. I'll kick things off. This is John on the prebuy point. As included in our comments, you know, sales volume was up 4.4% in the first quarter. We actually saw probably a fairly limited amount of that. It was not the driver of the stronger volume in the quarter. In fact, what we had seen is that our sales volumes were actually stronger in January and February, but they were still up in March. We believe that maybe some of the strength in March was there. In other words, if volume was a six cents or so benefit in the quarter, maybe there was a penny or two in there associated with prebuying, but it was not the driver of the stronger volume in the quarter.

Geroge Staphos (Managing Director)

Okay. Hey, John, just to sort of. Hi, Gordon. What kind of—hey, hey, Gordon. Just quickly, April, you said soften. Are we looking at negative volumes to get to a year-to-date growth rate of 3% from up four, or just maybe another kind of detail there?

Gordon Hardie (President and CEO)

What I would say is, while that's not our base case view, we are remaining cautious in the commercial outlook. We are maintaining our full year view of stable volume over for the year on a year-over-year basis. Kind of flat overall for the year. Again, that's out of a bunch of caution on just the uncertainty on tariffs. It's certainly not the direction we hope things go. In April, just to give you a little bit of color, adjusted for Easter, volumes were down about 1% or 2%. It wasn't a significant decline. Volumes were up in the Americas, low single digit. Again, that remains healthy.

Our business really isn't exposed to tariffs there, but we did see a little bit of decline in Europe, and it was primarily in use categories and markets that we know are exposed to exports, considering that about 40% of what we make in Europe ultimately gets exported. It was kind of the wines and the spirits categories that we saw a little bit of softness in April.

Geroge Staphos (Managing Director)

Yeah.Yeah. Thanks, Gordon.

Gordon Hardie (President and CEO)

We'll update the, you know, as we get more visibility in this quarter, and we'll update in, you know, at the half year. With regard to the second part of your question, TOE and Toano, you know, as we outlined, I think in July and October, there is a process that we put each of the plants through in that there are performance opportunities identified, and then we go and execute against those opportunities. In Toano, we have a very clear line of sight to 100% of the opportunities we identified. We've established, you know, the metrics, the operating system, you know, validated some of our hypotheses, which have come out strongly. Now we will begin the rollout across the whole fleet in waves. That is a very structured kind of disciplined approach over the next 15-18 months.

We're very happy with the outcome of Toano. You know, we expect similar results, you know, as we roll out the program across the whole fleet.

Geroge Staphos (Managing Director)

Thank you, Gordon. I just mentioned because Toano is one of your better plants over the years. I will turn it over. Thanks very much.

Gordon Hardie (President and CEO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

We now turn to Michael Roxland with Truist Securities. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Michael Roxland (Managing Director and Equity Research)

Thank you, Gordon, John, and Chris for taking my questions and congrats on all the progress and on a nice quarter.

Gordon Hardie (President and CEO)

Thanks, Michael.

Thank you. My first question, yeah, my first question is just on a follow-up to what George was asking about strict volumes. Can you give us a sense just in terms of the volume progress that you're seeing by end market, whether it be wine, spirits, beer, NABs? Just want to get a sense of the growth or the headwinds that you may be encountering in some of those end markets. Where do order books stand currently? Any outlook you can share with respect to how early, you know, an early read on May, for instance?

Sure, Michael. I'll take that question. You know, in both the Americas and Europe, we, you know, we saw, you know, strong volumes in the first quarter. Literally, it was across most categories in each of the regions. You know, in the Americas, for example, you know, beer up, you know, close to 4%, food performing strongly, you know, high single digits. Spirits in the Americas actually had a very strong quarter, you know, up double digits for us, as had, you know, RTDs. Overall, you know, strong volume growth in the Americas, you know, strong demand, tight capacity. In Europe, you know, beer performed very strongly in the quarter. Non-alcoholic beverages also performed strongly, up high single digits for us. Food, up mid single digits. Wine, you know, a bit of a comeback, you know, low single digits in Europe.

Spirits were off in Europe, off mid single digits. RTDs, which is a much smaller category in Europe, was also slightly off. All in all, you know, we see kind of green shoots in a lot of the categories, in a lot of the geographies coming back. You know, order books at this stage are good. There is certainly uncertainty out there regarding, you know, where all this tariff discussions are going to play out. That is causing, you know, consumer uncertainty as well. I think this quarter will be telling to see where everything lands. Yeah, that's our view at the moment. As I said, as we look to the end of the year, we're sticking with our initial thinking at the start that it would be stable over the year.

There may be, you know, a few bumps, you know, here and there, but overall, off to a strong start.

Michael Roxland (Managing Director and Equity Research)

That's great, Gordon. Thank you for all the color. Just, you know, one quick follow-up. You're looking to streamline your French operations given the slowdown in wine. Now, is that a structural issue just related to French wines? Is that a structural issue for all wines? Does it relate to more mainstream wine brands versus, let's say, you know, premium products in terms of, you know, I say premium products meaning like top regions, top brands? Just trying to get a sense of what you're trying to do with your French operations and really what the driver is there in terms of your realignment.

Gordon Hardie (President and CEO)

Yeah. Look, overall, it's fitting assets to market opportunities. You know, as I said, we're looking now at the portfolio in terms of two streams, mainstream and premium. We see tremendous opportunities in premium, you know, across wine, across spirits in France. You know, some of this is the realignment of the footprint to get ourselves ready to, you know, expand into premium as we go forward. Of course, we continue to invest strongly in France. We have a big investment in Gironcourt, which has gone live and is delivering to expectations. We're very happy with it. We will continue to invest in France, which is a key market for wines and spirits, particularly wines and spirits. You know, longer term, you know, wine, particularly, you know, economy wines have suffered some impact, you know, across the whole market.

I think if you look through the cycle over the long term, you know, premium and super premium wine, premium spirits, super premium spirits will continue to perform strongly. That really is looking at the footprint and making sure we're set up properly for that as we execute on what we laid out in our I-Day, you know, our Best of Both strategy, being the lowest cost producer in mainstream and best cost producer in premium. That really is the context for the operations review across Europe.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Josh with UBS. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Anojja Shah (Director of Equity Research)

Oh, hi. Good morning. It's Anojja Shah sitting in for Josh. On slide eight, you mentioned tariffs on aluminum as an opportunity, one of the opportunities of tariffs. Have you seen signs of this yet with customers where this could potentially be a benefit? Like maybe you're having introductory conversations about substrates or just any color on what you're seeing there and how you think it might benefit you?

John Haudrich (CFO)

Yeah. Just for some clarity there, you know, if you go back to our Investor Day, we did profile that, you know, that overall glass containers in North America are at a higher cost than aluminum. You know, that's 25-30% kind of differential. And we believe if that goes to 15% or lower historically, we've seen shifts over to glass. And we believe that the difference on the aluminum tariff side could, you know, impact that, call it 5, 10 percentage points against that 25-30% premium. So it could help. I think it's a little early. You know, some of these things are supply chain related. They're filling related. They are, you know, contractually related.

I would say, you know, just as we look at the, you know, back to the prepared comments, you know, the challenges, you know, we'll probably see some of the broader market-related areas probably over the shorter to medium term. The opportunity section that we show on page eight is probably something that unfolds a little bit more over time than what we're seeing anyway.

Gordon Hardie (President and CEO)

Yeah. Just an add to that. You know, obviously, if there's increases in price in aluminum, that helps, you know, close the gap a bit. But that's not a controllable for us. What we're focused on is, you know, getting our cost base into a position that we close the gap very significantly to cans and become more competitive to cans, particularly in North America, you know, driving those elements that are within our control. That really is our primary focus. You know, tariffs for us is uncontrollable. While it may help us, you know, over a short medium-term period, it's not something we wish to rely on as we get fit.

Anojja Shah (Director of Equity Research)

Great. Thank you. That's very helpful. I'll turn it over.

Operator (participant)

We now turn to Anthony Pettinari with Citi. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Anthony Pettinari (Research Analyst)

Good morning. In Europe, you had, hey, in Europe, you have year-over-year headwinds for net price and then operating costs with the curtailments in Q1. As you envision the year, can you talk about maybe the cadence of how you'd expect those headwinds to trend and ultimately inflect over the four quarters of the year?

John Haudrich (CFO)

Yeah, Anthony, this is John. I'll take that one. As we take a look at net price for the business, it will be front-end loaded this year. You saw the $37 million impact in the quarter. It should be less than that in the second quarter and then be a relatively minor headwind for the business in the back half of the year. That is primarily because last year we had started to see a little bit of pricing pressure in the marketplace in the back half of last year. We are going to comp that. That will show a year-over-year moderation in that pressure point. When it comes to the curtailment cost, you know, we believe that that also is going to be front-end loaded. You know, we're trying to, you know, bring our inventories down to, you know, 50 days or lower.

We're making good progress on that. If you take a look at just the, you know, the calculations and everything on a year-over-year basis, you know, the operating cost impact of that peaks in the first quarter. We'll have some negative impact in the second quarter, not to the same degree in the first quarter. By the back half of the year, on a year-over-year basis, that's going to be a strong year-over-year headwinds against obviously weaker comps in the prior year. Hopefully that gives you the cadence that you're looking for.

Anthony Pettinari (Research Analyst)

Got it. Got it. That's very helpful. Then just a quick follow-up. You talked about, you know, tariff impacts and competitive intensity with aluminum, which I guess is maybe too soon to tell. In the U.S., can you talk about how, you know, fewer Chinese bottles, fewer Chinese imports, how you're seeing that impact the market this year?

Gordon Hardie (President and CEO)

Yeah. Currently, we're not seeing a lot of impact because there does seem to have been quite a bit of pre-buying by importers and distributors. We see there's a fair bit of stock in the market. Obviously, you know, buyers may also look to see if there are other cheaper import markets such as India. At the moment, we're not seeing a huge impact, Anthony.

John Haudrich (CFO)

One thing I would add, Anthony, is just if we take a look at those opportunity sections in that tariff, you know, if those emerge, those are kind of upsides to our baseline view of the business. You know, those are opportunities that are not factored into our current outlook at all.

Anthony Pettinari (Research Analyst)

Got it. Got it. Do you think those inventories potentially they run down by the summer? Is it a few months or a few quarters or any framing there?

Gordon Hardie (President and CEO)

Yeah. I would imagine by the end of the summer. I would imagine by the end of the summer.

Anthony Pettinari (Research Analyst)

Got it. Got it. I'll turn it over.

Operator (participant)

As a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad now. We now turn to Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Arun Viswanathan (Senior Equity Analyst)

Great. Thanks for taking my question. Just congrats on the strong progress thus far. I guess maybe you can just review what you're hearing from some of your customers on the spirits side in North America. I know there's been some volatility there. I mean, I guess globally as well, that'd be helpful. Thanks.

Gordon Hardie (President and CEO)

Yeah. You know, as we, you know, as we work through these kind of uncertain times, obviously, we're staying as close as we can to customers and working with them on maybe different scenarios and, you know, how we position capacity. You know, I think there's a bit of a wait and see, you know, over the next 60 days now. I think there has been, you know, last year, maybe some shifting of product into different markets. We saw a bit of that in January. No big structural decisions about onshoring capacity or onshoring bottling, for example, from Europe. There are people talking about it, but no actual moves on that. Neither, you know, do we see moves currently, you know, from the U.S. into Europe. I think we're very much in a wait and see period.

Some of these decisions, once you make them, you're long on that decision. If, you know, tariff policies change, you know, people can be caught out of the position. I think it's very much a wait and see at the moment, Arun.

John Haudrich (CFO)

The one thing I would add on that, what we had seen last year is that the spirits activity, you know, they were drawing down inventories. I think we've seen some normalization of that. In fact, our volumes in the first quarter in spirits were actually pretty good because people are past that destocking phase. Now we're going into the, obviously, the uncertainty with tariffs.

Arun Viswanathan (Senior Equity Analyst)

Thanks, John. Yeah. I guess I also had some questions on the raws side. Maybe just give us some thoughts on how you're thinking about your energy hedges as it relates to natural gas, as well as potentially, you know, your sourcing of coal and soda ash if there's anything we need to be mindful of on that side.

John Haudrich (CFO)

Thanks. Yeah. I'll address the energy component of it. Just as background, we have very favorable energy long-term contracts that we set before the Russia-Ukraine war. We've been benefiting from that. We're highly covered and contracted through the balance of the year. As it stands, you know, for this year, we're in very good shape when it comes to energy. Now, going into next year, you know, 2026 and beyond, we have been layering in over time, you know, some of our positions and contracts for the future. We take a multi-year view on that. At the same token, some of those prices had peaked up at the beginning of the year. We're being judicious about that.

What I would point you back to, Arun, is, you know, back to our Investor Day about a month ago, we kind of gave a longer-term view of, you know, from our bridge from today or at the end of 2024 to 2027, where we're going to $1.45 billion of EBITDA. Included in that outlook was our expected headwind for resetting of those long-term energy contracts. I would say that that view still holds. I think you can look back at that. Even with the moving energy markets, I think it's still an appropriate outlook.

Gordon Hardie (President and CEO)

Yeah. With regard to raw materials generally, you know, as we've laid out as part of our strategy, you know, it is a value chain approach. Working differently both with customers on the front end, but also working differently with suppliers on the back end and doing so in a way that, you know, strips waste and inefficiency out of that part of the chain. We're working, you know, very well with our key suppliers. You know, there's tremendous focus on productivity plans. You know, we're very happy with the progress we're making there and in managing that area of the value chain and the cost base far more tightly than heretofore. We feel we're in good shape there.

Operator (participant)

As another reminder, if you'd like to ask any follow-up questions, please press star one on your telephone keypad now. We now turn to Gabe Hajde with Wells Fargo Securities. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Gabe Hajde (Research Analyst)

Gordon, John, Chris, good morning. Thanks for taking the question.

John Haudrich (CFO)

Hey, how are you? Hey, Gabe.

Gabe Hajde (Research Analyst)

I joined a moment late. I apologize if you guys addressed this. I did not see you call out any sort of curtailments in the Americas. A, confirm that. B, I think I heard the word tightish across the production system. Is that true across the specific geographies, U.S., Mexico, and Brazil? What are you seeing? I know we are going into the winter months, but any discussion with your customers in terms of cadence for the back half of the year?

John Haudrich (CFO)

Yeah, I can take the first part of that. You did hear right. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Sure. You did hear right. Overall, there were no curtailments of any consequence in the Americas all the way from Canada down to Brazil. We're very, very balanced in that particular marketplace. Certainly, we will continue to seek through TOE going forward opportunities to improve capacity utilization. We have done most of the heavy lifting of the initial network optimizations in the Americas. As I mentioned before, we continue in Europe, but we hope by mid-year, maybe, you know, the later part of summer, we will be on the worst of the temporary curtailment activity.

Gordon Hardie (President and CEO)

Yeah. You know, the outlook for the rest of the year, I think, is largely more of the same in the Americas. You know, demand is good, capacity is tight, you know, pricing stable. You know, we expect that to kind of run through probably to the end of the year in those geographies for sure.

Gabe Hajde (Research Analyst)

Okay. And then, John, I think you kind of mentioned, and I fully appreciate being cautious and pragmatic here given the macro, but kind of if we were to freeze things today, tracking towards the upper end of the range based on kind of what you expect through the first half. I also know that you guys have talked about trying to reduce the volatility in earnings and produce closer to sell, maybe not hang on to as much inventory. I think I know, Gordon, you've talked about that. The Q4 guide, is that where we would see the big swing factor? I think you also just mentioned not taking as many curtailments in the fourth quarter. Is that the big swing factor, an unknown as we sit today, that could dictate higher end of the range, lower end of the range?

Because it seems like you guys got some visibility into Q2, Q3.

John Haudrich (CFO)

I think it's a fair observation, Gabe. The fourth quarter, as you took a look at that pie chart, is the weakest quarter from a quarterly earnings standpoint. It is also the seasonally slowest period for our business given just the seasonality of our business and being predominantly northern hemisphere. If there's an opportunity, I think there is, you know, again, line of sight is better in the second and third and a little bit more cautious in the fourth quarter. You know, of course, the fourth quarter is also, you know, an active period. Sometimes you do more maintenance, sometimes you don't, depending on the activity. I would also say, you know, our earnings are very sensitive to tax rates, especially in those softer periods and seasonally softer periods. That could also be a swing factor too.

To the degree that we're at the higher end of the range, you know, and the tariff, you know, challenges don't manifest themselves to materially impact the business, I think you could see the fourth quarter being a little bit better.

Operator (participant)

As a final reminder, if you'd like to ask another question, please press star one on your telephone keypad now. We have no further questions. I'll now hand back to Chris Manuel for any final remarks.

Chris Manuel (VP of Investor Relations)

Thanks, Elliott. That concludes our earnings call. Please note our second quarter call is currently scheduled for Wednesday, July 30. As a reminder, make it a memorable moment by choosing safe, sustainable glass. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Ladies and gentlemen, today's call is now concluded. We'd like to thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.