O-I Glass - Q2 2024
July 31, 2024
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Good morning, everyone. Welcome to O-I Glass Q2 2024 earnings conference call. My name is Kiki, and I will be your conference operator today. During the presentation, you will have the opportunity to ask a question by pressing star followed by one on your telephone keypad. If you change your mind, please press star followed by two. I will now hand you over to your host, Chris Manuel, Vice President of Investor Relations, to begin. Chris, please go ahead.
Chris Manuel (VP of Investor Relations)
Thank you, Kiki, and welcome everyone to the O-I Glass Q2 2024 conference call. Our discussion today will be led by our new CEO, Gordon Hardie, and John Haudrich, our CFO. Today, we will discuss Gordon's view on the business as he joins O-I, key business developments, and review our financial results. Following prepared remarks, we will host a Q&A session. Presentation materials for this earnings call are available on the company's website. Please review the safe harbor comments and disclosure of our use of non-GAAP financial measures included in those materials. Now, I'd like to turn the call over to Gordon, who will start on slide 4.
Gordon Hardie (CEO)
Thanks, Chris. Good morning, everyone. It's a privilege to be O-I's new CEO. I've spent my career serving the food and beverage industries across the world, including at a few of O-I's customers. Drinking from a glass bottle gives consumers a unique experience. From that perspective, no other packaging container delivers quite like glass. First, I would like to recognize and thank all those at O-I who tirelessly focus on our customers and their consumers every day. It is this focus and attention to quality that makes O-I a trusted partner and supplier to many of the world's leading food and beverage brands. As a member of the board of directors over the past eight years, I've seen firsthand the progress the team has made to make O-I a more integrated and capable company.
The team has achieved much, but in discussions over the last weeks, we know and acknowledge that we have not yet achieved the company's full potential, nor consistently met the expectations of our shareholders. It is my focus to deliver consistent performance that significantly increases the value of our company. We have a solid foundation. We are determined to increase the value of O-I for all stakeholders. In this morning's call, I will share my initial impressions as CEO, our Horizon One focus areas, including a set of core operating principles and our initial roadmap to boost the value of the company. This includes a new program called Fit to Win to strengthen our competitiveness. Fit to Win is not just another cost-out initiative. It will fundamentally reshape our company and how we work.
It will deliver absolute transparency on cost and returns, enable faster decision-making closer to the market and customers, and will boost competitiveness to fuel growth. As a result, we expect to significantly improve our medium-term performance through a set of self-help efforts that are within our control. We also anticipate this program will best position us to more effectively take advantage of any market rebound. Shifting to the quarterly results, we reported Q2 adjusted earnings of $0.44 per share. As expected, adjusted EPS was down from a historically high performance last year, given current challenging macro conditions. Lower earnings reflected a decline in net price realization, moderately lower shipments levels, and higher operating costs due to capacity curtailments to balance supply and demand. As we focused on elements in our control, these headwinds were partially mitigated by solid operating and cost performance.
Market conditions remain sluggish but are gradually improving. While our Q2 shipments were down mid-single digits from last year, this is an improvement on the double-digit declines we saw over the last few quarters. Our volumes are now more consistent with underlying consumer consumption patterns as destocking recedes in most categories. Importantly, we expect year-over-year sales volume growth starting in the second half of the year. As we look to the balance of 2024, we are adjusting our full-year outlook as we take rapid action to ensure we are well positioned for a strong 2025. Over the medium term, we expect stronger future earnings as we execute our Fit to Win program to improve our competitiveness. This will position us more effectively as markets gradually recover over time.
Moving to page five, I would now like to share my initial insights and share how I intend to lead the company as we move to drive better and more consistent results. Since joining the company in May, I've traveled widely and met with many key stakeholders across the value chain. I've spoken to over 1,000 O-I colleagues around the world, from the shop floor to the leadership team, to better understand how we can make O-I more competitive. I've been impressed by the knowledge, skills, and resilience of the O-I team across the company, as well as by their willingness to face reality and offer concrete ideas for improvement. I've engaged with many customers to discuss opportunities they see in their businesses and to understand their pain points.
I've also spoken with suppliers to see how we can improve together to make the value chain more efficient and make O-I more productive and more sustainable. I have visited retail stores and on-premise outlets and met with many contacts in the food and beverage industries. ... From these interactions, I have a much deeper understanding of stakeholders and market dynamics. I also gained critical insights into how to make our company safer, fitter, more sustainable, and more valuable. It is said that performance equals potential minus interference, and I've used this concept to help frame our path forward. O-I has significant potential. We have a great team. We have a privileged footprint. We have longstanding relationships with a diverse customer base. Customers view O-I as a trusted supplier with high-quality products and deep knowledge of their business and their markets.
They also appreciate that glass is a highly sustainable packaging solution that is all-natural, healthy, and a great fit for a more sustainable world. However, it is clear that we have not achieved our full potential. As illustrated on the right, we have outlined the three key pillars of our Fit to Win program to address the interference that is holding us back and represents the first horizon of our long-term strategy. Our first pillar focuses on enhancing our competitiveness. We intend to sharpen the focus of the business model and organization. We plan to decentralize more decision-making and accountability to our operations across the markets we serve, making decisions closer to the customer and the market. We believe this will drive greater accountability for profit, capital allocation, and cash generation. We also expect this will allow for the simplification of our corporate organization.
At the same time, we plan to conduct an end-to-end supply chain review with the objective of streamlining our total value chain and driving efficiencies through productivity. This productivity will be used to boost earnings and fuel growth. For example, we targeted and completed a total organization effectiveness assessment at 2 of our highest performing plants in one geography, and see a path to achieve between 10% and 15% efficiency gains. We therefore believe the opportunity across our network is significant and expect it should yield meaningful network optimization benefits and higher returns. We also expect this program will increase our focus on a more profitable mix of segments, products, and customers. Importantly, we will leverage our operational capabilities built over the past several years to accelerate execution of our Fit to Win program.
Our second pillar revolves around significantly enhancing our capital discipline and cash generation by leveraging an economic profit mindset. With this approach, the company will be responsible for improving earnings, as well as optimizing the invested capital in the business, as we seek to earn a target return above the cost of capital. We will direct resources and capital where we can achieve an attractive return, with a clear framework to prioritize and drive value-creating investment decisions. Since starting, I've read through the list of every capital project we have undertaken in 2023 and in the plan for 2024. It is clear to me that we can drive greater focus and capital discipline and drive better outcomes for the business. Our third pillar stresses the improving our financial performance and consistently achieving our commitments through a relentless focus on execution.
Importantly, we intend to use economic profit as a key financial measure going forward, and we are evaluating how we will incorporate it into our incentive structure at all levels of the organization. In addition to our Fit to Win program, we have developed a set of operating principles. These principles will focus our actions to maximize the value of the company and are shown at the bottom of the slide. Namely, making safety our number one priority, using economic profit to drive value creation, driving productivity, continuous improvement, and sustainability, building shared value with customers, strengthening leadership throughout the business, and operating with transparency, teamwork, and integrity. Let's now turn to page 6 and discuss our long-term roadmap for value creation. We aim to increase our profit capture over three horizons.
During Horizon One, we will focus our Fit to Win program that I just outlined, to drive a deep change in the competitive position of the company. I see significant earnings improvement that is within our control and not dependent on the level or timing of a market recovery. It is my view that we do not require large near-term volume improvement to meaningfully boost the earnings power of the business. We have sufficient self-help opportunities over the next 18 months to drive greater profitability and returns to set the business up properly for a fuller market recovery in 2026 and 2027. We anticipate the productivity improvement from Horizon One will deliver greater efficiency, margins, and cash generation. We plan to accelerate the realignment of our commercial portfolio between global, regional, and local customers, and prioritize premium end segments in each category.
We are currently under-indexed in premium, especially in spirits. Our operating units already have a line of sight to those opportunities and a solid pipeline for new products, such as our lightweight bottles enabled by Ultra. We expect this will enable an acceleration of economically profitable growth in Horizon Two, with a laser focus on each of the segments and channels across each market we serve. During Horizon Two, we intend to align our CapEx with strategic customers' long-term plans, particularly in large and developing markets. We have a number of working examples of such customer arrangements, but we believe there is much greater opportunity. Finally, in Horizon 3, we expect that we will have strategic optionality. This may include geographic expansion into new growth markets with large profit pools, which could be a great fit for MAGMA at the right economic profit.
While it is early days, we have established three initial three-year targets, which span both Horizon One and Horizon Two. By 2027, we expect to generate sustainable adjusted EBITDA of at least $1.45 billion, with EBITDA margins of 20% or higher, free cash flow of at least 5% of sales, and economic profit that is at least 2% above our cost of capital. Additionally, we are announcing several near-term actions as part of our Fit to Win program, which we believe will position O-I for a step-change improvement in performance starting in 2025. One, we expect to accelerate temporary production curtailments in the Q3 to rapidly reduce elevated inventory levels and improve free cash flow.
Two, we expect to close at least 6 furnaces, representing about 4% of our capacity, over the next 3 quarters to eliminate redundant capacity as a first step of network optimization. Three, we expect to reduce SG&A costs significantly as we streamline the organization. We will present a more detailed roadmap at our next Investor Day on March 14th, 2025, in New York City. A few thoughts on MAGMA. I'm now on page 7. MAGMA's core technology works. The Generation One smelter development is complete, and we are ramping up production of our Gen Two greenfield in Bowling Green, which was designed to test all of MAGMA's current operating technologies. This greenfield is on track for commissioning in August and ramping production in the Q3.
MAGMA's increased flexibility has the potential to rewrite our business model, but it must deliver a meaningful economic profit within a reasonable timeframe. This is the new challenge I have set for the MAGMA and commercial teams. As we improve the efficiency of our plants and optimize our network, we will shift our focus and resources to installing MAGMA Gen One melters in certain legacy furnaces as they are replaced at end of life. In addition to leveraging our R&D investments, retrofitting certain plants with MAGMA melters will add additional flexibility and other benefits to our network. Naturally, we will continue optimizing our Gen Two site in Bowling Green. Additionally, we will leverage this technology into our core business and work with strategic customers to use MAGMA to develop more cost-effective supply chains, particularly in logistically difficult markets.
Now I will turn over to John, who will review market trends, Q2 performance, and our updated 2024 outlook in more detail.
John Haudrich (CFO)
Thanks, Gordon, and good morning, everyone. I'm starting on slide 8. The commercial environment remains soft, yet conditions are gradually recovering. Our year-over-year shipment trends improved sequentially between the Q1 and Q2, and we expect sales volume growth over the balance of the year. As shown on the left, our Q2 shipments were down 4.5% from the prior year, compared to the 12.5% decline in the Q1. Shipments in Europe were flat, as both beer and wine returned to modest growth, while spirits remained a bit soft. In the Americas, volume was down 8.5% in the quarter, given lower beer, wine, and spirit shipments in North America and Mexico. Yet volume was up double digits in the Andean market, following recent expansion projects.
We have provided more details on our Q2 sales volume trends by category on the right. Except for spirits, our shipment levels are now generally consistent with underlying consumer consumption patterns, which remain soft. Destocking has receded across most categories, except spirits, which we expect will continue through the end of the year. I do believe we have turned the corner. Our shipments were up more than 5% in July, and we anticipate mid-single digit growth in the second half of the year, supported by easier prior year comparisons and slowly improving consumer consumption. Overall, we expect glass demand will gradually recover over time, and we are well positioned to take advantage of the rebound as it unfolds. Let's discuss our recent financial performance on page 9. O-I reported Q2 adjusted earnings of $0.44 per share.
As expected, results were down from historically high, adjusted earnings of $0.88 per share last year, given challenging macro conditions. As illustrated, adjusted earnings primarily reflected the decline in segment operating profit, while non-operating items and FX were generally stable. Additional details are included on the slide. Let's turn to page 10 and discuss performance across our 2 segments. The Americas posted segment operating profit of $106 million, which was down from $126 million last year. Net price was flat, while shipments were down 8.5%, as discussed. Despite elevated temporary production curtailments, operating costs were up just slightly, given favorable margin expansion initiative benefits. In Europe, segment operating profit totaled $127 million, down from $200 million last year.
As anticipated, net price was a headwind in Europe, while sales volume was flat. As you can see, operating costs were elevated, mostly due to higher temporary production curtailments to balance supply with demand, softer demand noted over the past few quarters. Let's move to page 11 and discuss our updated 2024 business outlook. We have revised our full year guidance to reflect softer demand, as well as rapid inventory control measures that should position O-I for success starting in 2025. We now expect sales volume will be about flat or down slightly from prior year, and O-I is accelerating temporary production curtailments to quickly align supply with lower demand.
As a result, total production should be down about 7% from last year, and we expect our year-end IDS levels will be consistent with historically low inventories achieved back in 2022. Inventory control actions will be concentrated in the Q3. While this will negatively impact near-term results, we will rapidly align supply with softer demand, get our inventories at the right level, and significantly reduce the need for costly curtailments in the future, which should boost results next year. Additionally, we have adjusted our free cash flow guidance to reflect the updated business outlook, as well as an additional estimate for anticipated restructuring activities as part of our Fit to Win actions. This slide provides the specific details on our revised outlook.
While we are adjusting our 2024 outlook, we are taking quick action to rebalance our network, given current market conditions that should position O-I well for 2025. As Gordon discussed, we expect our Fit to Win program will significantly improve earnings, cash flow, and economic profit over the next three years. Now I'll turn it back to Gordon, who will conclude on slide 12.
Gordon Hardie (CEO)
Thanks, John. Again, it's a privilege to be O-I CEO. I see significant opportunity to advance our company. We are focusing the company on a new set of priorities aimed at improving our value. While down from historically high performance last year, the company continued to navigate well through ongoing challenging market conditions during the Q2. Fortunately, we achieved good sequential sales volume improvement in the Q2 and expect to return to growth over the balance of the year. While we have reduced our full year outlook, we are taking rapid action that we expect will impact near-term results, which should better position O-I for success in 2025 and beyond. This is an exciting time. We are determined to grow the value of the company as we execute Fit to Win, drive greater capital discipline, and deliver profitable growth.
I look forward to working closely with the financial community. Thank you, and we are now ready to take your questions.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad now. If you change your mind, please press star followed by two. Please only ask one question and one follow-up. If you have any further questions, please re-queue the line. When preparing to ask a question, please ensure your device is unmuted locally. The first question comes from Ghansham Panjabi from Baird. The line is now open. Please go ahead.
Ghansham Panjabi (Analyst)
Thank you, operator. Good morning, Gordon and everyone, and Gordon, congrats on your new role.
Gordon Hardie (CEO)
Thanks, Ghansham.
Ghansham Panjabi (Analyst)
Yeah. So I guess, you know, you've been on the board for nearly a decade. You know, the company's pursued various iterations of cost outs and optimization plans, et cetera. What, what do you think is the holistic difference between what you're outlining now versus previous programs? And then how do you ensure that there won't be customer service issues as you consolidate and curtail some of these furnaces, that you've outlined?
Gordon Hardie (CEO)
Yeah, thanks, thanks for that question, Ghansham. Look, the company has, over the last, you know, 7, 7 years, certainly improved its, its operational execution and capability and has done some very good work on, on productivity in specific parts of the business. I think what we're presenting here is, you know, a whole of company, end-to-end review across the entire business and, and the whole value chain, right back to, you know, to, to suppliers. So it's, it's more holistic. It's going to reshape the company. It's going to reshape how we work. It's going to simplify the business, allow us to speed up and allow us to innovate faster. We're gonna get to absolute transparency on costs and returns to make better value-creating decisions, and it will boost competitiveness to, to fuel growth.
So I think the main difference between, you know, what the team has achieved before and what we're now focused on, is really an end-to-end review of the business, and once and for all, kind of address areas of what I would call interference in creating more value in the company. In terms of customer service, if all you do is kind of change costs and let the customer down, that's not an outcome. We have a very good integrated business planning system in the business, which is both medium term, but also great S&OP processes. And we will make sure that we have enough inventory in the system to guarantee our customers that we will not let them down....
You know, our job is to make sure that our customers' plants are running on time, as they should, with no interruptions from us. And we have a very experienced team now, you know, across the many markets. And, you know, from my own experience, where I ran daily fresh businesses at 99.5% DIFOT world, you know, I'm well-versed and very conscious about changing supply chains and not letting people down. So, it's a point well taken, but I think we're across it and we'll deliver the changes without letting the customer down.
Ghansham Panjabi (Analyst)
Okay, thanks for that. And then, your decision to accelerate, you know, focus on cash flow, basically realign inventory, specifically 3Q, is that just an acknowledgement of maybe this should have been done earlier, and you're trying to sort of clear the system as the company cycles into 2025? And on that, you know, do you think that process will end by the end of this year, just based on the fact that volumes are starting to perk up a little bit relative to the baseline?
Gordon Hardie (CEO)
Yeah. Let me take the second part first. Yeah, you know, as our volume and consumer pull through a line, you know, we would expect a natural decline in inventory levels. But the level of inventory we have, you know, at around $1.2 billion, you know, that's just trapped cash. And the way, you know, this industry works is, you know, your furnaces flow, you know, 24/7, 365. You don't have much flexibility in terms of operating week to week, month to month. So we've taken the decision to, you know, unleash or, you know, free that cash. And as we go forward, that is something we're going to be focused on, is the working capital in the business.
We're currently running at about 60 days, but we have pockets of our business and operating units that are, you know, operating well below 30, and that needs to become the benchmark. So that, you know, we generate as much cash as possible from our operations.
John Haudrich (CFO)
Yeah, and Jim, I would, I, I would add to that. If you take a look at our temporary curtailment activities this year, it'll probably be about 15% of our total capacity will be curtailed this year. That's up from 8% last year, so 7% incremental. So this year, we are, are absorbing about $180 million of additional costs to rebalance the network and get inventories down to, call it, in the mid- to low 40s of IDS. So as we look forward, you know, managing to that low, low inventory levels and ideally lower as, as Gordon was... It's, it, we're gonna be positioned for that going into next year.
As we think about next year, we get out from underneath, you know, all that extra, incremental cost that I was referring to there, so it should significantly boost our performance next year.
Ghansham Panjabi (Analyst)
Okay, thanks for those numbers.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. The next question is from George Staphosfrom Bank of America. The line is now open. Please go ahead.
George Staphos (Analyst)
Hi, everyone. Good morning. Gordon, best of luck to you in the new role, and thanks for taking my question.
Gordon Hardie (CEO)
Thank you, George.
George Staphos (Analyst)
You know, I'm gonna take a similar tack. You know, I've covered Owens-Illinois since 1992, and I've seen good years, bad years, but I've seen many restructuring and optimization and redirection programs for O-I over the years. And one of the things that winds up being the interference, as you put it, Gordon, is the inherent fixed cost of the business. In many ways, it lends itself to a command-and-control style because you just you have to run, or else you're gonna get eaten alive by the fixed cost. So why is this latest iteration of being more decentralized, being closer to the customer, going to work, when in the past, it hasn't necessarily worked out as you wish?
candidly, again, you've been on the board since 2015, what's been the interference from a management standpoint in doing some of these things, if in fact, they should have been done? And then I had a question on MAGMA.
Gordon Hardie (CEO)
Sure. Thanks for that, Josh, and I look forward to meeting you at some stage.
George Staphos (Analyst)
Same here.
Gordon Hardie (CEO)
You know, I think where we're coming from is over the last 5-7 years, as I've said, I think the team has done a very good job on bringing some sort of core disciplines around operations and execution to the business that weren't there before. And I believe now we have really strong foundational capability around supply chain and operations, you know, customer engagement, pricing discipline, and so on. Where we're going is, I've been in about 20% of our plants, so visit about 18% of our plants, spoke to a lot of people across our total chain. And you know, there are many ideas on how to improve the operations of the business.
You know, from my background, I've worked in, you know, heavy manufacturing businesses and capital-intensive businesses, and, you know, I have methodologies that we've introduced already to the business. To give you an example, we've taken two of the fittest plants in one geography in O-I and we put it through, you know, a 4-week assessment. And from that assessment in two of our fittest plants, we see, you know, 10%-15% efficiency improvements. And you map that out across the network, and you, you know, you can see sizable opportunity. And I stress that, you know, those assessments are, you know, based on process improvements and way of working improvements, not requiring a whole lot of capital, if any, at all.
And so I believe just driving the operational excellence to a new level, we're bringing in some sort of new capability and new ways of thinking and new ways of running the plants. There's significant opportunity. I also think in terms of just running the assets harder, you know, we have quite a bit of spare capacity. You know, there are opportunities, I think, to sweat our assets, you know, much more effectively, and drive cash out of them in a way that hasn't been done before. And if you look at our end-to-end supply chain, you know, the way we work with suppliers currently and the way we work with customers, I see opportunities to improve that.
I've spoken to quite a number of our suppliers, and when I ask them: What can we do differently? You know, there's 5, 6, 7, 8 ideas on how we can work more effectively together and strip waste out of the supply chain. Likewise, with customers, this is an industry, and this is a sort of a rough average across the whole industry, but forecast accuracy or the forecast accuracy from customer to supplier is somewhere between 50% and 70%, and that represents a lot of opportunities for both sides, you know, to again get more efficient, strip waste out and generate more cash.
You know, I think, as I said, I've read through all of the CapExes of 2023 and 2024, and, you know, I see opportunities for us to become much more selective, more and much more demanding on returns on capital. And I think finally, there's you put all that together, you end up being a more competitive company, and then you can really go after kind of more profitable growth.
And I've spoken to customers, for example, that have said, "Hey, we've had opportunities over the years, that, you know, we would have liked to have put your way, but we weren't able to take those opportunities because our cost base was too high and couldn't get the returns." So we're gonna address that, and those, you know, those types of opportunities which are ongoing as our customers grow. You know, there'll be opportunities for profitable growth. Yeah. So that's how I think about it. You know, I can't comment on the past. I'm here to kind of drive the present and create a much better future, future for for O-I.
George Staphos (Analyst)
Understood. Listen, my last, and thank you for the candidness there. I, I guess my other question: What are we saying about MAGMA at this juncture, relative to what the company's expectations might have been two, three years ago? And have... You know, what do you think the, the investment in MAGMA has been to date? Is it $500 million? You know, any, any way to size that. So how has the vision on MAGMA changed, and what's the investment in it at present? Thank you, and good luck in the quarter, and we look forward to meeting with you as well.
Gordon Hardie (CEO)
All right. Thanks very much. Look, Magma is a very exciting technology that has the, you know, potential to change how we, how we work, how we invest, how we run the plant, and how we work with customers. So the technology works. We go live this month on our Gen 2 facility in Bowling Green, in Kentucky, which is a world-class facility, where all the operating technologies of Magma are going to be sort of road tested at commercial scale. And we're confident that, you know, we're well on track there. But when I look at Magma, I see opportunities for us to monetize and extract value from Magma much earlier than maybe the previous plan.
So what I've said to the MAGMA team, who are, you know, world-class engineering talent, who are bringing first world kind of technology and glass here, and our commercial team, who work very closely with, with many of the leading brands in the world: How do we make this, you know, deliver, returns faster? And that's what I'm focused on. You know, we, we also have Gen 3, as you know, but I really want us to get focused on extracting value from the assets that we have, sooner, than is, than is planned. So that really is, is, is the change in focus, and, yeah, I think the team are excited about it, actually, of putting it to work earlier.
John Haudrich (CFO)
And George, to your second question, the level of investment, we've invested over about a five-year period of time, about $200 million on the direct R&D expense side. We've also put about $40 million into R&D CapEx. So that's the total, kind of, R&D component. And then, of course, we've been also spending CapEx over the last few years to build out our facility in Holzminden, and was the generation one, as well as the Bowling Green facility that's in excess of $100 million of investment at that particular facility. So to give you an idea of the level of investment.
Gordon Hardie (CEO)
And just to add on, on MAGMA, what this technology does, it gives us switch on, switch off capability in the plants, as opposed to running them, you know, 24/7, 365. And that allows you to, you know, radically reshape how you run plants and the flexibility you have and so on. And, you know, why not bring that closer and move faster on it if it's there to generate better returns, better flexibility? And I think it also opens up different types of strategic discussions with customers that will allow us to grow with customers more effectively, particularly in logistically difficult markets. So that's the rationale behind it. And, you know, we're looking to deliver cash from it sooner rather than later.
John Haudrich (CFO)
And when we go to our Investor Day in March, we'll lay this out in a lot more detail.
Gordon Hardie (CEO)
Yeah
John Haudrich (CFO)
... among other things.
Ghansham Panjabi (Analyst)
Thank you, gentlemen.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. The next question is from Mike Roxland, from Truist Securities. The line is now open. Please go ahead.
Michael Roxland (Analyst)
Yeah, thank you, Gordon, John, and Chris, for taking my questions. And, Gordon, congrats on the role, and look forward to working with you.
Gordon Hardie (CEO)
Thanks, Mike.
Michael Roxland (Analyst)
Gordon, you mentioned, you know, targeting more profitable segments and customers. You mentioned, you know, one of the... I guess, one of the holes in the portfolio, not having enough premium exposure. Can you give us some more color around, you know, how you intend to gain share in profitable segments of customers? Have you started... Is it just charging premium? Are there other avenues for you to drive more profitable growth? And have you actually started to prune some business and walk away from unprofitable accounts, unprofitable business?
Gordon Hardie (CEO)
Yeah. So you know, the way the categories, the consumer categories, you know, that we serve through our customers are structured, is there tends to be, you know, commodity, you know, mid-premium, premium, and then, you know, super premium and above. And if I take a look at our portfolio, about 80% of it is in that mid-premium and below. And about 20%, you know, 17%-20% is a bit above. So we're under-indexed when you see, you know, the premium portfolios of many of our customers, both for small and large. And, you know, a lot of that is legacy because of the plants, you know, that were geared towards kind of mainstream beer.
And we have, in some of our operating businesses, very effectively, you know, changed the operations of the plant to service those markets. And we're gonna double down on that. You know, there's better margins in premium and super premium, and I think that's an opportunity. You know, you need to change, you know, slightly how the plants operate and how they're configured, and you know, you need to train people a bit differently what to do. So that's on one hand. We also have outstanding design capability in this business. You know, we have a hand in advising our clients on some of the most glorious packaging that you see in the market, and on the shelves, and on the back bars.
I mean, our designers have a hand in that. So we have tremendous capability in that area and therefore are well placed to enter premium. And you know, in some parts of our business, you know, historically, it just hasn't been a focus, and it'll now become a focus. And then we will put plans in place with the operating units to, you know, to drive more premium business. And you know how you win it, you win it through innovation, you win it through design, you win it through service. You know, that's by being a better overall supplier, more valuable supplier, with a wider breadth of service, you can supply to our key customers. So, so yeah. So that's how we're thinking about it.
It's an opportunity, and there are a number of different ways into it, with different customers and different geographies. So that's what we're going to focus on and therefore deliver better margins.
Michael Roxland (Analyst)
Got it, and I appreciate all the color. And then just, you know, you mentioned also significant sell-off over the next 18 months. You'd be taking additional temporary production curtailment, closing at least six furnaces. You've mentioned reducing SG&A. Any more color you can provide on those initiatives? Have you identified any other plants or furnaces that could ultimately be rationalized? And how much SG&A do you intend to remove from the business? Thank you.
Gordon Hardie (CEO)
Yeah. Well, in short, yes. We have some pretty clear views right across the value chain on where there's opportunities, either to work more effectively with suppliers, you know, to make the chain more efficient and share the savings. Likewise, with customers, I think there's opportunities just in the whole supply chain, to work together to, you know, strip out waste and share some of the gains. And then within our own walls, you know, for example, you know, the example I gave there are those two plants, which are high-performing plants, and yet we see opportunity of 10%-15% by boosting, you know, a methodology or a concept called OEE, overall equipment effectiveness.
Which hasn't been a traditional measure in this business, but is a measure I've used in other companies that very effectively helps the teams to focus on how you, how you sweat the assets harder. Yeah. So that combination, as I said, the you know, what I would call portfolio momentum, so moving more from, you know, commodity and mid-premium to premium, you know, just clarifying, you know, where, where is best to do what work. We have quite a bit of duplication in, in the business often. So look, the way I look at it is we're, we're gonna look at every activity across the business and figure out if there's a better, smarter, faster, more, more efficient way to do that. And that's what we started on already.
We're gonna take an economic profit lens to everything. The only time we make money is, you know, after we've paid everyone and paid our capital charge, what's left over. We get down to SKU level pretty quickly, and that then will allow us to take action. You know, from that point of view, if there's 10 levers you can pull, eight are usually self-help, and two, you've gotta get some help from the customer. That's how we look at it.
Yeah, from all the ideas I've received from all my colleagues across the world, I'm pretty confident we've got a long list of self-help opportunities.
John Haudrich (CFO)
Yeah. And Mike, those... All of that above is what's driving the targets that we set for 2027. So it's substantially that self-help umbrella that accounts for the difference between kind of our expectations this year to the 2027 preliminary targets.
Gordon Hardie (CEO)
Got it. Very clear. Best of luck. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. The next question is from Anthony Pettinari from Citi. The line is now open. Please go ahead.
Anthony Pettinari (Analyst)
Good morning. Good morning.
Gordon Hardie (CEO)
Good morning.
Anthony Pettinari (Analyst)
Gordon, when you look at the key geographies that O-I operates in, you know, maybe US-
Gordon Hardie (CEO)
Yeah
Anthony Pettinari (Analyst)
... Mexico, Brazil, Europe, how would you kind of rank the business performance in terms of, you know, regions where you're maybe closer to Fit to Win, or regions where maybe you have a lot more work to do? And then, I guess, second question may be kind of related. I mean, your predecessor made the decision to exit Asia, which was, you know, a big part of O-I historically. Would you look... You talked about growing in markets, would you look at potentially paring the portfolio or exiting certain geographies as well?
Gordon Hardie (CEO)
Yeah. Let me answer the second part first, if I may. So our focus, as we've laid out, is in horizon one, getting fit, getting super fit, and in horizon two, you know, building momentum by seeking out kind of profitable growth. In terms of expansion into new geographies, I really see that as a Horizon 3, when we're really, you know, operationally and financially in a position to bring some value, you know, to those markets and bring some value to customers that are operating there, either those already there or, you know, we have customers that are looking to expand their footprint as well, and there are opportunities to do that. But that is not the primary focus at the moment.
Will it become a strategic option for us, geographical expansion? Yes, and just not right now. You know, so that's the other part of the, or the second part of the question. Could you remind me of the first part again?
Anthony Pettinari (Analyst)
Well-
Gordon Hardie (CEO)
Yeah
Anthony Pettinari (Analyst)
... just what region-
Gordon Hardie (CEO)
So which ones are closer to Fit to Win?
Anthony Pettinari (Analyst)
Yeah.
Gordon Hardie (CEO)
Sorry. Yeah. So which ones are closer to Fit to Win? Look, we have a range, okay? We have very fit businesses in Latin America. You know, but there's still opportunity there. You know, historically, I think the North American business was skewed more to beer, and that category obviously has declined, and so there's a shift required there. And you know, we've got a good spread of good businesses across Europe. You know, every business in our portfolio has an opportunity to improve, some more than others, and some in different parts than others. Some are maybe, you know, bit better on manufacturing and supply chain, you know, maybe less so on innovation. So there's a patchwork, if you like.
And what we're doing is systematically saying to each part of the business, "Okay, from our analysis and from what the customers are saying, and where the market opportunities are, here is a defined program of levers and self-help levers to work on." So the picture varies by market and by geography and by business. But I would say across the board, every operating unit and every part of the business has an opportunity to improve.
Anthony Pettinari (Analyst)
Okay. And would you look at exiting geographies, as you know, O-I did with Asia, or is that not on the table now?
Gordon Hardie (CEO)
Look, the way, the way I look at it is, what, what is the EP profit pool? You know, and, you know, can we get a reasonable share of it? If there ever came a situation where there was no path to economic profit, yeah, we, we'd redivert capital elsewhere. But as I look at the spread of markets we have at the moment, I, I see a path to improving our, our economic profit in, in all the geographies in which we operate.
Anthony Pettinari (Analyst)
Okay. That's helpful. I'll turn it over.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. The next question is from Joshua Spector from UBS. The line is now open. Please go ahead.
Speaker 10
Hi, good morning. Actually, this is Sean speaking on behalf of Josh. Yeah, thank you for taking my question, and, congratulations on the new role, Gordon. So well, we actually have a few questions in terms of the EBITDA guidance. So my first question is, based on the current trends entering into the second half, can you say with confidence that there will be no further guidance cuts for this year? And also any color on quarterly EBITDA distribution for second half? Thank you.
John Haudrich (CFO)
Yeah. What I would say is that... This is John. So we've, you know, really take a look at the forward, you know, volume outlook for the business, and obviously, we try to take a reasonably conservative view of what is the possible range, pluses and minuses. And I believe that our guidance accounts for a reasonably wide range of possible outcomes, including softer demand. And that would be the primary variable that it would be driving any variance in our outlook right now. Obviously, what we did here was we took a pretty big impact in the third quarter, in particular, with the downtime that we're taking and accelerating in that. So that's all part of that.
That's the biggest driver for our change. Frankly, if we weren't taking those actions, we'd probably be at the south end of our current range. But we are doing that, it's the right move to set us up for the next year, that's precipitated the bigger change in the outlook. And as far as the distribution of the outlook on that, as you can see, you know, Europe has transitioned first into more positive sales volume in that regard, but it's also the market where we have to do a little bit more catch-up on the inventory control.
So, I would say that, you know, the North American market or the Americas market is probably seeing a little bit slower recovery on the demand as far as a year-over-year basis and things like that, but more of the catch-up in the downtime is over in Europe. So it's, they're both probably equal, but, the, you know, for different reasons.
Speaker 10
Okay, thank you. So also in terms of the EBITDA distribution between Q3 and the Q4, so do you mind also give some color on that? Yeah, thank you.
John Haudrich (CFO)
Between the-
Speaker 10
Third and fourth.
John Haudrich (CFO)
Q3 and Q4 . Yeah, okay. So, if you take a look at the main drivers that are going on in the business, in the Q3, you know, obviously, we're looking at a, you know, a soft quarter. It's driven by two factors. One is the Q3 is gonna have our peak net price pressure. You've seen about $50-$60 million in net price pressure year to date. We're gonna see more than that in the Q3 alone. It has to do with two factors. One is a comp-based question in, you know, the comparisons against last year, and the fact that energy and logistics costs in the first half of the year were softer or lower inflation than we originally were anticipating.
And in some geographies, we passed that back to our customers on a timely basis. So that's flushing through in that regard. We would expect net price to be better in the Q4 relative to the Q3. And then in the Q3, we're gonna take a pretty meaningful impact, over $100 million impact, 50 cents per share alone on the inventory curtailment activity. But in the Q4, that's actually gonna should be a positive because we took significant action last year. Even though we're gonna continue to take, you know, downtime in the Q4, it's gonna be less than the 20% or so that we had in the previous Q4 period. So hopefully that gives you a little bit of texture of the moving parts.
Speaker 10
Okay, thank you. Yeah, my last question is about the EBITDA bridge. Actually, how we should think about the EBITDA bridge from 2024 until 2027, $1.5 billion target?
John Haudrich (CFO)
Yeah, obviously, we're not providing a lot of, you know, details on the 2027 outlook. Again, we'll do that more the Investor Day. But back to earlier conversations, you know, this is mostly driven by self-help activities, and I think you would substantially see that in the cost performance line of the business, without taking a big, big hard stance just yet on the commercial outlook for the business.
Speaker 10
Thank you very much. I would think it's over.
John Haudrich (CFO)
Yeah.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. The next question is from Arun Viswanathan, from RBC Capital Markets. The line is now open. Please go ahead.
Arun Viswanathan (Analyst)
Great. Thanks for taking my question, and good to see you. So I guess the question I had was, when you look at the guidance revision, it looks like you're cutting it by about $0.60 at the midpoint. You gave some, you know, statements in the presentation this time and last, that each 1% reduction in volume and production is $0.20 on EPS. So is that kind of how we're thinking, maybe like a 3% reduction in combined in both, as far as how you're thinking about the revised outlook?
John Haudrich (CFO)
Yeah, I would say on the sales side, it is probably in that neighborhood of, you know, 2%-3%. We're talking probably about a 4% change in our outlook on production, a little bit more than that. And yeah, you could extend those by those numbers that we provide there. So in other words, the incremental production downtime is worth about $0.50, and then the volume is something in this, call it, anywhere $0.10-$0.20 type of range, and then you got the tax impact.
Arun Viswanathan (Analyst)
... Great. Thanks for that, John. And, as a follow-up, I guess, given these, steep actions you are taking now, on the inventory side in Q3, and then you just think about, you know, some of the category performance, I know spirits is still destocking, but would you say that, Q3 really would kind of constitute a bottom as far as, operating or economic profit? And, should we expect... You know, when should we expect growth on that, on the economic profit side, and how are you gonna track that and kind of report that to us?
John Haudrich (CFO)
Yeah, I'll expand on that. And we will look to provide more details on both the calculation methodologies and future discussions and quarters, and certainly expand on that a lot more during the Investor Day. If we take a look at 2023, we were economically profitable, a little bit, single digit, you know, spread margins. This year, with everything that's going on, we will be down, single, you know, low single digits, on the economic spread approach and things like that. With that said, the lowest point probably would be the Q3, just given the significant...
You see it in the P&L with the numbers and that we're referring to, but also the significant impact that we're taking on both the downtime and ultimately some restructuring charges that we'll be taking over the balance of the year here, too. So we would expect that to bounce back. As far as where we go from there and next year and the cadence of that, you know, we'll lay that out more in detail in the future.
Arun Viswanathan (Analyst)
Thanks.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. The next question is from Gabe Hajde from Wells Fargo Securities. The line is now open. Please go ahead.
Gabe Hajde (Analyst)
Gordon, echo what everyone said, good luck on your new role. John, good morning.
Gordon Hardie (CEO)
Thank you, Gabe.
Gabe Hajde (Analyst)
I guess the first question-
Gordon Hardie (CEO)
Sure.
Gabe Hajde (Analyst)
-is more customer oriented. And I guess in their spirit of getting products to consumers on the shelf, they presumably have-
Gordon Hardie (CEO)
Yeah
Gabe Hajde (Analyst)
-a vested interest to get you all reasonably accurate forecasts. So maybe John, having benefit of history, this 50%-75% number that Gordon talked about, has that changed a lot over time? And really what I'm getting at is, I'm assuming mostly across the food and beverage industry in the past four years, forecasting accuracy has not been very good. And then maybe more importantly, based on your kind of customer engagement as you look into 2025, you know, how is their enthusiasm towards glass as a package? And maybe from your vantage point, what are some of the near-term factors that could be temporarily impacting pack mix?
John Haudrich (CFO)
I can start with just say, hey, that forecast accuracy is nothing new. That's been around, in particular, accuracy at the SKU level is where you really see the variance, and it's been kicking out for some time. I'll turn it over to you.
Gordon Hardie (CEO)
Yeah. I think look over this kind of period, last two years, you know, with inventory, you know, piling up, I think everybody is kind of focused on how they manage inventory and the chain more effectively. So, you know, talking to the customers, as I have been, you know, that has come up as an issue, and I think everybody is much more focused on it than they would've been in previous years, right? Where it was less of an issue. But with the focus on working capital and inventory, you know, it's absolutely an opportunity. You know, I've raised it with customers, and we've agreed that, you know, we're gonna try and figure out how we improve that, right?
You know, the better that number is, you know, the more effectively you can run your plants and the better we and customers can manage their inventory. Yeah. So that is going to be a focus for us, for absolutely sure. And, you know, and I see clear opportunities, you know, in terms of how we work together and our supply chain teams and our customer supply chain teams work more effectively together and share data in a way maybe, you know, that we haven't, you know, in the past, historically shared. So I definitely see opportunities there. In terms of enthusiasm for glass, you know, I mean, it's clear that glass is core to many of the world's kind of great beverage brands.
All of the customers have, you know, made it clear that glass is very, very much a part of, you know, the equity of their brands and see a big part of it. And, you know, one or two customers who both have glass and cans said to us, you know, "We wanna do more glass." But we also have to step up and help our customer by working with their teams to innovate more and, you know, to make packaging more attractive to customers on shelf. You know, at the retail level, you know, it's well known that, you know, the purchase decision is often made at the shelf, and, you know, glass can absolutely help that.
So, yeah, so, you know, I see a very kind of clear future for glass and, you know, with right across all the markets we address. Yeah. And then if you look at, you know, at the markets we address, we're only in about 43% of markets that, you know,
... where glass is a big packaging element, right? So, you know, as you look forward into Horizon 3, you know, we absolutely see opportunities to grow glass. Yeah.
Gabe Hajde (Analyst)
Okay. Real quick, maybe a modeling question. Can you give us a sense for the six furnaces that you're looking to close, or I guess take down temporarily at this point, fixed cost savings associated with that and trying to not be careful or be careful to not double count, you know, giving you credit for better fixed overhead absorption going into 25 and/or fixed cost savings associated with that, if that question makes sense.
John Haudrich (CFO)
Gabe, way I'd say that is, we're incurring about $180 million of incremental fixed cost absorption this year as we bring those inventories down. You know, we won't have that cost next year through a combination of accelerated activities that we're doing on the temporary curtailment side, but also through the restructuring costs you're referring to. So rather than parsing them out, I think it's better to stay at a high level perspective on. And that's kind of a return to $25 million benefit. Yeah.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. This is the end of Q&A session, and I'd like to hand over to Chris for closing remarks.
Chris Manuel (VP of Investor Relations)
Thank you, Kiki. That concludes our earnings call. Please note our Q3 conference call is currently scheduled for Wednesday, October 30th. Additionally, please mark your calendars for our next Investor Day. That's planned for March 14th, 2025. In conclusion, remember, make it a memorable moment by choosing safe, sustainable glass. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect your lines.