O-I Glass - Earnings Call - Q3 2025

Executive Summary

• Q3 2025 delivered stable net sales at $1.653B with materially higher profitability: adjusted EPS $0.48 versus $(0.04) in Q3 2024, and segment operating profit up 63% to $235M, expanding reportable segment margins by 570 bps to 14.4%.
• Consensus comparison: EPS beat ($0.48 vs $0.420*) and revenue was slightly below ($1.653B vs $1.656B*). Values retrieved from S&P Global.
• Management raised FY2025 adjusted EPS guidance to $1.55–$1.65 (from $1.30–$1.55 prior) and maintained free cash flow guidance at $150–$200M despite higher restructuring, citing Fit to Win momentum ($75M in Q3; $220M YTD).
• Strategic execution accelerated: 13% capacity closures announced (8% complete), bank credit agreement refinanced, leverage tracking to mid‑3s by year-end; groundwork for higher earnings and FCF in 2026 with an anticipated ~$150M energy reset headwind and continued self‑help.
• Key catalyst: guidance raise and visible margin expansion driven by Fit to Win, with disciplined exit of unprofitable business and network optimization positioning for durable improvement.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Significant margin expansion: reportable segment margin increased to 14.4% (+570 bps YoY) with segment operating profit up $91M YoY to $235M, driven by Fit to Win savings and improved production efficiency.
• Americas and Europe profits surged: Americas SOP $140M (+59%), Europe SOP $95M (+70%), on cost reduction and higher production levels; net price favorable in Americas.
• Quote (CEO): “O‑I delivered strong third‑quarter earnings along with substantially higher margins compared to the prior year period... delivering another $75 million of benefits in the third quarter and $220 million year‑to‑date”.

What Went Wrong

• Volumes soft: shipments/tons down ~5% headline, with underlying ~2% softer consumer demand; Beer and Wine down, offset by growth in NAB, Food, RTD.
• Net price headwind in Europe and temporary project start‑up impact; Europe volumes down modestly (flat excluding project).
• Higher interest and restructuring costs: net interest expense rose to $91M (Q3) due to refinancing fees; cash restructuring and legacy environmental settlement weighed on FCF despite improved earnings.

Transcript

Chris Manuel (Head of Investor Relations)

Welcome, everyone, to the O-I Glass third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Our discussion today will be led by Gordon Hardie, our CEO, and John Haudrich, our CFO. Following prepared remarks, we will host a Q&A session. Presentation materials for this call are available on the company's website. Please review the safe harbor comments and disclosure of our use of non-GAAP financial measures included in those materials. Now, I'd like to turn the call over to Gordon, who will start on slide three.

Gordon Hardie (CEO)

Good morning, everybody, and thank you for your interest in O-I Glass. Today, we will review our third quarter performance, examine recent market trends, and highlight the progress we have made on our transformation journey. We will also share our improved outlook for 2025 and an early view on key business drivers for further improvement in 2026. Before we begin, I want to acknowledge the dedication and determination of the entire O-I team. Your commitment, teamwork, and execution are the drivers behind our ongoing transformation. Last night, we reported third quarter adjusted earnings of $0.48 per share, delivering strong results that exceeded both last year's performance and our own initial plans. Our top line remained stable, supported by higher average selling prices and favorable FX, even as overall consumer demand remained subdued.

We saw revenue growth in non-alcoholic beverages, food, and RTDs, while beer and wine experienced declines due to softer consumer demand. Importantly, the execution of our strategic initiatives is leading to a higher quality of revenue as we strip out waste and inefficiencies, expanding growing categories, and exit some unprofitable business. As a result, segment operating profit rose by more than 60% year over year, and margins are up a robust 570 basis points, propelled by significant benefits from our strategic program and increased production levels following last year's inventory reduction. Fit-to-win contributed another $75 million in the third quarter and $220 million year to date. We now expect to surpass our original 2025 savings target, and this program is strengthening our competitiveness, enhancing performance, and enabling durable profit improvement. Despite ongoing macroeconomic headwinds, our strategy is delivering results.

We have raised our full year 2025 guidance and now expect adjusted earnings per share to nearly double versus 2024. Momentum is building, and we anticipate continued growth in adjusted earnings and free cash flow in 2026 as we advance towards the target set out at our research investor day. Let's now move to page four. As we review our quarterly results, it is important to consider current trends within the broader market context. Packaging dynamics are evolving. Short-term cyclical pressures, including inflation, consumer price resistance, and elevated supply chain inventories have temporarily dampened demand. However, we anticipate these headwinds will ease over time. Longer-term factors such as lower per capita alcohol consumption and increased substrate competition will persist in certain markets. Yet these challenges are expected to be offset by growing interest in premiumization and sustainability.

Furthermore, rising consumer health awareness is driving growth in no-low alcohol beverages, as well as food and water. These trends suggest a more balanced and sustained demand for glass over the long term. In the interim, our focus remains on eliminating waste and inefficiencies, building higher quality revenue streams, delivering a more profitable portfolio, and positioning the business for future shifts in consumer demand. O-I has navigated market volatility effectively, maintaining stable net sales in recent years. As we address near-term cyclical pressures, we are carefully balancing price and volume to achieve a relatively stable top line. For the full year, we now expect pricing to be flat and sales volumes to be down about 2%, which is consistent with softer consumer demand. Despite this, our fit-to-win initiative is delivering a higher quality business mix and strengthening our competitive position, as evidenced by improved margins and segment profits.

Looking ahead, we anticipate O-I will achieve 1%-2% annual sales volume growth post-2027 as markets stabilize, strategic initiatives enhance our cost position, and we drive profitable growth in the next phase of our strategy. Let's now turn to page five to review the progress of our fit-to-win initiative, which I'm pleased to report is ahead of schedule. Fit-to-win is significantly reducing costs across the enterprise, as well as optimizing our network and value chain to enhance competitiveness and support future growth. In the third quarter, we achieved another $75 million in savings with benefits of $220 million through the first nine months of the year, well ahead of our initial plans. With this momentum, we expect 2025 savings will range between $275-$300 million, which exceeds our current year goal.

We are well on our way to at least $650 million of benefits by 2027 on a cumulative basis. We are making excellent progress in phase A, which focuses on streamlining SG&A costs and initial network optimization actions. We've already secured $100 million in SG&A savings in 2025, and we are on track to reach our three-year target ahead of schedule. Our network optimization is also moving quickly. We have communicated the closure of 13% of capacity to align supply with demand. 8% is now complete, and all remaining actions should be completed by early next year. Phase B centers on transforming our entire value chain. The first wave of our total organization effectiveness rollout across 15 plants is completed, and each location has met or exceeded expectations.

The second wave, covering another 15 plants, is in progress, and we should complete the remaining plants by the end of next year, with benefits continuing into 2027 and beyond. Our teams are driving strong results in procurement and energy reduction, further boosting savings and resilience. New supplier agreements are set to enhance productivity and competitiveness over the next three years. Overall, the fit-to-win program is delivering results faster than planned. We are well ahead of our targets for 2025 and are positioned to unlock even greater value through 2027, despite challenging market conditions. Now, I'll hand it over to John, who will start with a review of our third quarter results on page six.

John Haudrich (CFO)

Thanks, Gordon, and good morning, everyone. Let's begin with our third quarter top line results. Net sales held firm at approximately $1.7 billion, with modest improvements in gross price, especially in the Americas. Favorable FX provided a helpful tailwind, even as consumer demand remained muted. Shipments and tons declined by 5%, as modest growth in the NAB food and RTD categories was more than offset by lower performance in beer and wine. Keep in mind, this headline figure does not fully reflect underlying trends, as several factors which are not indicative of actual consumption impacted volumes by approximately 3 percentage points. These factors include a major capital project commissioning in Europe, which we discussed during last quarter's call, and inventory correction in the Mexico and North America beer category related to changes in U.S.

Trade and immigration policies, and mixed changes as we exited some unprofitable business lines, consistent with our focus on increasing economic profit, as well as the ongoing trend towards container light weighting. Excluding these factors, shipments were down about 2%, which is more in line with softer underlying consumer consumption trends. Importantly, overall volumes improved over the course of the quarter, and shipments were nearly flat with the prior year in September. While revenues were stable, margins improved significantly, and O-I delivered third quarter adjusted earnings of $0.48 per share, exceeding both last year's results and our own plans. This achievement was driven by favorable net price, significantly lower costs thanks to fit-to-win initiatives, and higher production levels despite softer sales volumes. A lower tax rate also benefited the bottom line.

Overall, O-I delivered strong third quarter results, outperforming expectations through disciplined execution, cost reductions, and continued momentum from our strategic program, positioning the company for ongoing success. Moving to segment profit on page seven. The momentum is clear as segment operating profit improved more than 60% from 2024, with robust gains in both the Americas and Europe. In the Americas, segment operating profit rose nearly 60%, propelled by higher net price and continued fit-to-win benefits. Volumes were down 7%. We believe underlying consumer consumption represented half of this decline, while specific factors drove the other half, namely lapping new business wins in 2024, inventory adjustments in the beer value chain across North America and Mexico, as well as mixed gains as we exited some unprofitable business. In Europe, segment operating profit surged by 70%, reflecting contributions from strategic initiatives and higher production following last year's inventory reductions.

Net price was a headwind, and sales volumes dipped due to a major capital project startup. Importantly, volumes were about flat, excluding this event. In summary, segment operating profits increased significantly, with strong gains in both the Americas and Europe, reflecting continued success and disciplined execution of our key initiatives. Now, let's turn to page eight for our updated business outlook. Looking ahead, our outlook for 2025 has improved. Given our strong year-to-date performance and the momentum of fit-to-win, we have raised our full-year earnings guidance. We now expect adjusted earnings in the range of $1.55-$1.65 per share, nearly double our 2024 results. This meaningful increase reflects stronger initiative benefits and better net price, partially offset by slightly lower sales volume.

Free cash flow is projected at $150-$200 million, an improvement of approximately $300 million versus last year, and closer to a $400 million increase prior to restructuring costs. Although the adjusted earnings outlook has improved, our free cash flow guidance remains unchanged due to higher-than-expected restructuring opportunities and the settlement of a legacy environmental liability, which together totaled more than $25 million. Higher restructuring is a result of O-I Glass's accelerated network optimization initiatives, which are expected to deliver benefits in 2026 and beyond. Excluding these temporary and elevated charges, our free cash flow is nearing the 5% of sales benchmark, which is our 2027 target. We successfully refinanced our bank credit agreement last month at favorable economics, which also extends out maturities. Leverage improved over the last quarter, and we continue to expect our leverage ratio will land in the mid-threes by year-end.

Despite a challenging macroeconomic backdrop, we are executing effectively, and our self-help initiatives are delivering results that exceed our original expectations. As a result, we are increasing our full-year adjusted earnings per share guidance and expect this positive momentum to continue into next year. Now, let's turn to page nine for our early perspectives on key business drivers for 2026. Looking ahead to 2026, we anticipate continued momentum with higher adjusted earnings and free cash flow as we advance towards our 2027 objectives outlined at investor day. Revenue is expected to remain stable or increase modestly, supported by better mix, fairly consistent sales volume, and higher gross price, reflecting the pass through 2025 inflation. This aligns with our strategy to maintain a stable top line while executing fit-to-win to further strengthen our competitive position and lay the groundwork for profitable growth after 2027.

Adjusted earnings are projected to improve, fueled by another year of strong initiative benefits. These gains should more than offset the impact of lower net price as we reset favorable energy contracts in Europe, which are expiring at the end of this year. Free cash flow is expected to rise, driven by increased earnings and disciplined capital allocation. Cash restructuring costs should be at or below 2025 levels as we complete key initiatives by mid-2026. Our balance sheet should continue to improve, with financial leverage in the low threes by year-end 2026. With strong execution, ongoing transformation, and a clear strategic direction, O-I Glass is well positioned to deliver lasting value to all stakeholders. Now, back to Gordon on page 10.

Gordon Hardie (CEO)

Thanks, John. As we wrap up today's call, I want to emphasize the significant progress O-I Glass has achieved and the solid competitive foundation we are establishing for the future. Our strong year-to-date performance, driven by the ongoing success of our fit-to-win program, has enabled us to raise the 2025 adjusted earnings guidance once again. Looking ahead, we anticipate continued growth in both earnings and free cash flow in 2026. We are delivering on the commitments made at our recent investor day, maintaining a stable top line, enhancing our quality of revenue, and advancing our transformation despite a challenging environment. Our efforts to realign our network and supply chain are supporting mixed improvement and positioning us for long-term profitable growth. Our cost transformation initiatives are generating substantial savings and increasing our competitiveness, and we have streamlined our organization to be more agile and focused.

As a result, margins and earnings are up, free cash flow is increasing, and our balance sheet continues to strengthen. Most importantly, we are executing well, building momentum, and expect to create sustainable value for our shareholders. Thank you for your continued support and confidence in O-I. We look forward to building on this momentum and achieving even greater success together. We're now happy to take any questions you may have.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. If for any reason you would like to remove your question, press star followed by two. Again, to ask a question, press star one. As a reminder, if you are using a speakerphone, please remember to pick up your handset before asking a question. We will pause here briefly as questions are registered. Thank you. We will now take our first question from Ghansham Panjabi from Baird. Please go ahead.

Ghansham Panjabi (Senior Research Analyst)

Thank you. Good morning, everybody. Gordon, as you think about the demand environment, good morning. You know, as you sort of think about the demand environment and the variability we've seen over the years, et cetera, how much of this most recent decline is influencing your view as it relates to what's actually a cyclical decline versus some sort of secular change because of change in consumer preferences and so on and so forth? You know, because if you go back to 2019, volumes are down roughly mid-teens. You're aligning your capacity down by pretty much a comparable amount. I'm just curious as to what you think is the right baseline for volumes going forward, or is this a new starting point?

Gordon Hardie (CEO)

Yeah, thanks, Ghansham. You know, it's quite a dynamic demand environment. You know, depending on what segments and categories you look at and what part of the world, there are probably different dynamics. I think it's fair to say that beer, you know, across the board and wine across the board are, you know, declining. Certainly, we've seen that in most of the markets. Within beer, there's a dynamic where premium beers are showing some growth. It's mid-tier and maybe lower. Equity brands, if I can put it that way, losing share to private label. There definitely is a piece around beer and wine that we see because consumers are challenged, right? You know, I hear that. I'm in the market a lot. I hear that quite a bit. What we are seeing, though, is a growth in non-alcoholic beers.

Interestingly, you know, we're hearing in different markets that up to 60% of new users of the non-alcoholic category are Gen Zers. They're coming into the beer category via non-alcoholic ranges. I think there's a piece there, quite a large chunk around beer that's, I would say, cyclical. You know, then the shift, you know, people, health and wellness, you know, accessing beer through low and non-alcoholic beverages, which I think will kind of grow. I very much think we're still in the midst of the implications of COVID and how it disrupted supply chains and behaviors and the stages of which particularly Gen Zers enter different kind of categories. I think there's very much a part in beer, which I think is cyclical. Wine, I think some of it is structural.

You know, younger consumers, what you hear is finding it difficult to access wine. You know, it can be a complicated category to access with different appellations and labels and so on. But what we do hear is the wine industry saying, okay, how do we make it easier for consumers to access the category? So I think there's some work being done there that, you know, should help that over time. You know, the way we look at it, Genshen, as I've mentioned before, we have about 1.7 times the volume of our nearest competitors. And in this period of kind of volatile demand, you know, I think the most clear path for us to create value is to increase the profitability and the returns and the cash on the volumes that we have.

Really strengthen the portfolio and strengthen the core business and generate higher returns and higher cash flow from what we have. Shedding volume that does not deliver economic profit or cash for us. You know, you will see that start to come through in the results where volumes are down, but margins are up very significantly. Cash will be up significantly for the year. You know, what is the right base? I am, you know, that is a fixed $64,000 question. What I am clear on is that we are only focused on volume that delivers economic profit for us. Now, we are in, you know, that early stage of that three-horizon strategy where we said, you know, we got to get fit in order that we access growth.

There is volume available in the market if you wanted to chase really low margins and give up a whole bunch of terms that will destroy cash. That's not our game plan. We are getting fit in order that when the market turns, then we can access the kind of growth. We have a very clear view on, you know, the kind of growth we're looking for, what categories, what segments, what markets, what customers. That's very clear to us internally. There is a timing issue. We've got to work through the fit to win and get much more competitive than we have been. When the market turns, access that growth. As we said, going forward, just to close out, we would then expect, you know, 1-2% volume growth that would be, you know, EP accretive and cash accretive for us going forward post 2027. That's a long answer, Ghansham, but that's kind of how we look at it, yeah.

Ghansham Panjabi (Senior Research Analyst)

Okay, just one quick follow-up. On the 13% capacity cut, how does that skew between the regions? I'll turn it over. Thank you.

John Haudrich (CFO)

Hey, Ghansham, this is John. On the balance, there is probably a little bit more going on in the Americas than in Europe. What I would say is where we stand right now, the Americas is substantially advanced, and the final stages are going to be over in Europe.

Ghansham Panjabi (Senior Research Analyst)

Okay, fantastic. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We will now take our next question from Josh Spector from UBS. Please go ahead.

Joshua Spector (Director of Equity Research)

Yeah, hi, good morning. I was wondering if you could talk a little bit more about the volume kind of cadence and the results in the quarter. I think you explained a decent amount of it, particularly within the Americas between some of the beer headwinds in the quarter and the exits that you guys did. I am just wondering if you could bucket those two pieces apart a little bit for us. Should we expect more exits on a go-forward basis? Does that matter for profitability since there is maybe some offset there? It is helping to pick that apart, would be helpful to start. Thank you.

Gordon Hardie (CEO)

Sure. If you take a look at the 5%, I'd break it out. About 2% is just softer consumer demand, you know, and consumers being, you know, more challenged, I think, and kind of price resistance in the market. Then, between network optimization and a deliberate decision to exit volume that, you know, did not make sense for us from an EP point of view, and also some very deliberate strategies around lightweighting, that's about 3%. The underlying, we think, is about 2%, right? We probably see that holding to year-end.

John Haudrich (CFO)

Yeah, I would add, just looking at the numbers here, Josh, the exiting of unprofitable business probably was one percentage point of that three percentage point that we would say is not specifically due to consumer consumption trends. That will episodically continue for the business. You know, I think we flagged this back at investor day. There is a low single digit, mid-single digit kind of portfolio of our business that is deeply economic profit negative. We are either going to raise prices in that market or we are going to exit that business. That is the process that we are going through as we go over the next year or so.

Joshua Spector (Director of Equity Research)

Thanks. I appreciate that. I also appreciate some of the kind of early overview here of 2026. I do not know if it is too early to frame this in a real quantifiable way, but I guess the easy math that you have kind of laid out is, you know, you expect at least a couple hundred million benefit of cost savings. You guys earlier sized the energy contract reset. I think it was $130 million. I guess correct me if I am wrong. I guess if you think volumes are flat, is the bogey that you should have earnings up $70 million in that context if we go sideways from here? Or are there other ways that you would think about puts and takes we should be adding?

John Haudrich (CFO)

You know, one is we probably do not want to get into quantification just yet. You know, we expect a nice increase next year as we move our way towards that $1.45 billion in 2027. Of course, we have to absorb that energy credit reset, energy reset. That number, as we mentioned back even in investor day, is about $150 million. That still remains to be, you know, very much in line with that right now. As we look at the puts and takes of the business, kind of stable volume, we will have gross price up. Against low single digit kind of normalizing inflation. We will absorb the energy reset, as we mentioned, that mark to market, and then very robust, continued robust fit to win benefits. We will come back at the end of the year with quantification, but we expect a nice bump next year.

Joshua Spector (Director of Equity Research)

Okay, thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We will now take our next question from Francisco Ruiz from BNP. Please go ahead.

Francisco Ruiz (Senior Equity Analyst)

Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my question. I have two, if I may. The first one is on the restructuring, kind of a follow-up on the previous question. Out of the 13% capacity reduction that you are aiming, how much is already announced and how much is pending apart from the French announcement that you made at the beginning of the year? The second question is in Latin America, more specifically in Brazil, with a very bad quarter in terms of volumes overall. Some of your competitors are increasing capacity. How do you see the area in the coming quarters? Thank you.

John Haudrich (CFO)

Yeah, Francisco, this is John. I'll touch base on and cover the first one. On the restructuring. If we go back to 2024, we were carrying about 13% excess capacity, and that was costing us about $250 million of unabsorbed fixed costs. We have since then announced closure of 13% of our capacity, which would ultimately get us substantially out of that fixed cost absorption. Right now, as of the end of the third quarter, we have completed 8 percentage points of that 13%. As mentioned earlier, that is substantially more skewed to the Americas. We have a remaining 5% left to go, which will be done by the early part of next year. That is going to be skewed towards Europe, including what we've announced in France.

We anticipate restructuring charges this year of around $140-$150 million, a little bit on the high end of what we originally anticipated because we're moving faster in certain areas. We anticipate a carryover of restructuring costs next year that it will be at or below that level. We should be out of that exit range of that cash activity by mid-2026. Really, the fundamental cash flow moving, you know, momentum going forward in the back half of the year will be better.

Gordon Hardie (CEO)

Yeah, with Francisco, good morning. With regard to Brazil, I was actually in Brazil a couple of weeks ago and spent a week touring the market and meeting with customers. You know, a couple of on the positive side, you know, we're seeing very strong growth in non-alcoholic beverages, so waters and juices in Brazil. You know, we're seeing strong growth in wine in Brazil, and strong growth in spirits. Where the big declines came were in beer. I know it's easy to blame the weather, but everywhere I went, people spoke about it being, you know, probably the coldest winter in 30 years in Brazil. That's definitely had an impact on consumption, yeah. Also, you know, people being challenged in terms of spending power and, you know, a bit of trading down going on in beer. For sure. What we are seeing is.

Customers launching, you know, new offerings to the market. There were also some sizable price increases went into the market that impacted volumes, I think, in the short term. On the food side for us, you know, we saw a decline in volume that was very largely driven by raw materials shortages, you know, particularly kind of olives. That impacted our business. The main piece around beer was largely weather-driven. Some, you know, mid to high single digit pricing going in on shelf, which I think, you know, put a bit of pressure on consumption. That is starting to sort of come back. You know, we are obviously heading into the summer months in Brazil and would expect, you know, better volumes going forward.

Francisco Ruiz (Senior Equity Analyst)

Thank you very much. Yes, another question. I do not know if you have mentioned, but as you did in other quarters, can you give us an idea of the current trade in October?

John Haudrich (CFO)

Yeah, I would say that as we take a look at, you know, going back to what Gordon had indicated, you know, we think the full year is going to be down about 2% now. Consistent with that underlying consumer consumption. Fourth quarter is kind of playing out in that low single digit, you know, territory. You know, nothing particularly new against the consumer consumption trends.

Francisco Ruiz (Senior Equity Analyst)

Okay, thank you very much.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We will now take our next question from Mike Roxland from Truist. Please go ahead.

Michael Roxland (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Yeah, thank you, Gordon, John, Chris, for taking my questions and congrats on a strong quarter and a tough environment. Hi, can you hear me?

Gordon Hardie (CEO)

Yes.

Michael Roxland (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Oh, perfect. Okay, great. Just wanted to follow up on the pruning of unprofitable business. I realize you mentioned in response to an earlier question that in the Americas that amounted to about 1%. Can you comment on what that was in Europe? Because when I look at some of your peers, your peers had volumes that increased low single digits. Your European volumes declined 4% in the three Qs. So I'm just wondering how much of that volume decline in Europe was you guys walking away from unprofitable business, which your peers then possibly picked up versus, let's say, underlying consumer weakness?

John Haudrich (CFO)

Yeah, Mike, you know, as we had indicated, overall the number, you know, the shipments were down about 3% in Europe overall. We attribute that substantially to that major project that was underway. We talked about that last quarter. You know, it was primarily in the spirits category. So that was the biggest impact. Yes, we were walking away from some business there, but I think it was more skewed towards that major project.

Gordon Hardie (CEO)

Yeah. And just to add a bit of color on Europe for us, Mike, you know. We kind of look at this in probably three parts. You know, Southern Europe was very strong for us, actually, and, you know, strong growth in all categories. And, you know, particularly, you know, waters, food, RTDs. You know, in Western Europe, you know, we were impacted a bit by wine, you know, with wine exports down. Spirits, you know, some of the French spirits not picking up yet, you know, in terms of shipments to either the U.S. or to China. Northern Europe was good, was strong for us across food and spirits and beer. And then, as John said, you know, we had that commissioning, which was, you know, slower than we had anticipated. Yeah, we're pretty happy where we are in Europe, given the context there.

We're very focused on improving the profitability of the volumes we have. We're not chasing volume just for the sake of volume. We're being very disciplined around that. As I said, there is volume out there that can, you know, destroy your margins and eat your cash. That's not our game plan.

John Haudrich (CFO)

One thing to add, Mike, on the question about the walking away from unprofitable business. You can see it in our revenue and earnings recs. You know, yes, the revenue is down as a result. The decremental margins on the lower volumes were half of what you would normally expect. You see us walking away from unprofitable business, and it is very visible in the bottom line performance of the business.

Michael Roxland (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Got it. Great call. Really appreciate it. Just one follow-up. Just wanted to ask you about the cost spread to aluminum cans. You know, given where aluminum prices are today in the US, you know, where does the spread currently stand relative to the 25% you cited at your investor day? Do you think it could gain share next year if aluminum remains elevated and as aluminum hedges roll off? I also realize it's early stages. Can you comment on how much your actions thus far have reduced the cost spread to cans? Thank you.

John Haudrich (CFO)

Yeah, Mike, I'll kick off the first part of that. If you take a look at the elevated costs of aluminum right now, we would say that that has moved that cost differential, for example, in the US, which was between 25-30%, more into that zone where we believe that historically, you know, glass can compete well, which is, you know, 15% or lower a premium to aluminum. It is early days, obviously, and as things flush through in the system, but that's what we're seeing as far as the competitive position of the product.

Gordon Hardie (CEO)

Yeah. And then, Mike, as you said, you know, and I think as we said in our investor day, you know, we can't be reliant on the price of aluminum to be competitive to cans. We've got our find-your-own-path there, you know, to 15% or less spread between cans and glass, which we are focused on. It does give us a bit of extra time if aluminum prices rise. You know, we've got to get there irrespective of where aluminum is, you know, over the journey between now and 2027.

Michael Roxland (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you.

Gordon Hardie (CEO)

I just suppose as a closeout on that, you know, the closer we are and the more competitive we are, then the more choice our customers have in which substrate to use and indeed, you know, consumers, you know, which one they choose on shelf, yeah.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We will now take our next question from George Staphos from Bank of America. Please go ahead.

George Staphos (Managing Director and Equity Analyst)

Morning, everybody. How are you? Thanks for the details. Congratulations on the progress.

Gordon Hardie (CEO)

Morning, George.

George Staphos (Managing Director and Equity Analyst)

On the decremental margin. It was a nice job this last quarter, guys. Three questions. I'll ask them in sequence for time. First of all, if we go to slide seven and your, if you will, your bridging or waterfall chart. On the items that were controllable, where did you perform best and where did you perform least well relative to the increase in your guidance for the year? Related question. I remember from last quarter, there were some operations that you were studying when and how you might be able to, you know, close, restructure, but there were some timing factors that determined whether that would wind up remaining on the book, so to speak, in terms of downtime or whether you could actually move it to non-operating and restructure and potentially have a better result. How did that play out? Is that still playing out?

Is it still downtime? The last question as we look to 2026. Recognizing, again, there's a lot of water that still needs to flow under the bridge, we get it. It would suggest, given that you're at least expecting, you know, good results for next year, good being defined by up earnings or up cash flow, that at least your initial commercial discussions with customers on pricing resets is going favorably. Can you talk about where that process stands, earlier than normal, later than normal? Any qualitative commentary would be helpful. Thank you, guys, and good luck in the quarter.

Gordon Hardie (CEO)

Yeah, I might take the last question first, George, if you don't mind. I mean, we're heading into that season. You know, as John said, we would expect sort of gross pricing to probably be up. Your, you know, capacities are tight, but, you know, it's early days, yes. You know, we're focused on being very, you know, disciplined in terms of improving the profitability of the volume we have. You know, anything that doesn't make economic sense for us in any contract negotiations going forward, you know, we would shift that out of the business and dedicate our assets to that volume that is delivering the kind of margins and cash targets we have.

John Haudrich (CFO)

Yeah, George. To the other questions as far as, you know, what changed in performance in the quarter and then as we look to the guidance going forward, obviously Fit-to-Win and the cost performance is exceeding our expectations. We increased our full year guidance of that by $25-$50 million for the full year. At the same token, you'll also see that net price has been positive relative to what we thought going into the year. That has offset some of the softer sales volumes that we have. When we look at it, the commercial performance net-net of price and volume is right where we expected it overall, a little bit different componentry. Really, the driver of increased performance in the quarter, expectation for the fourth quarter better performance and for the full year is largely driven by Fit-to-Win improvements. Okay.

On your next question, you had asked about operations and closures and restructuring opportunities. As you may recall, last quarter, we said we had announced about 10% capacity closures. Now we're at about 13%. We, in fact, have been able to identify those additional three percentage points of capacity that, again, balances supply with demand at the end of the day and are moving towards closing those out on a permanent basis. Again, 8% of it was done at the end of the third quarter. We were still carrying some restructuring charges, I mean, sorry, LOB or temporary downtime charges through the quarter and we will through the end of the year. You know, once we get out from underneath that in the early part of next year, you know, that'll substantially be out of the system.

John, recognizing it's the same pair of pants, it's just different pockets. Does that help the fact that you're able to close that incremental capacity help your guided EBIT and EBITDA for the year? If so, is there a way to quantify that? Again, thanks and good luck in the quarter.

Yeah, yeah, I think it is. And keep in mind, you know, when we talk about our fit to win numbers and benefits, that $270-$300 million this year, we are taking and accounting in for those permanent closures. And as we do better on that and make more progress on that, that is driving in part the upside of the performance on the cost performance. In addition to, you know, what we call phase B, which is also doing better, which is the more accelerated total organization TOE projects and other cost-related things. So fit to win is going up because of a lot of things, but partly because of the ability to close out capacity.

Now, keep in mind the activity in Europe is going to shift a little bit into the early part of next year from maybe our original expectations, but we've been able to pull forward some activities into the Americas. So net-net, you know, we're able to backfill some of that time.

George Staphos (Managing Director and Equity Analyst)

Very good. Great performance. Good luck, guys, in the quarter.

John Haudrich (CFO)

Thanks, George.

Gordon Hardie (CEO)

Thanks, George.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We will now take our next question from Brian Bergmeyer, substituting for Anthony Pettinari from Citi. Please go ahead.

Hi, good morning. This is Brian Bergmeyer on for Anthony. Thanks for taking the questions. You know, just following up on maybe the volume discussion from earlier, you know, you talked about growth in non-alcoholic beer and maybe some younger consumers staying away from wine. Just maybe from a high level, you know, how would you frame kind of O-I's ability to maybe capture some of these new product launches? You know, do we expect that to maybe be more of a 2027 item once you're through fit to win, or are you maybe seeing some early traction with new product launches and kind of new business in 2025 and 2026?

Gordon Hardie (CEO)

Yeah, we actually are seeing customers respond to, you know, consumer softness by, you know, introducing new products. If I take a look at our what we call our funnel, I would say it's up about 8-10% this year already. And, you know, our total NPD, so that's products that are new to the portfolio or products that are renovated already in the portfolio but might be value engineered or designed to look, you know, stand out on shelf. They're running at about kind of 10% of our volume. We absolutely are seeing more NPD. As we simplify, you know, our plants, as we make them more flexible and as we work on the strategy of best at both, which we outlined at investor day, we're able to respond, you know, more rapidly.

We're also in the process of reshaping the NPD organization and ways of working, which was very, you know, I would say was decentralized to a point where it was wasteful. We've now reshaped that, and that new kind of NPD go-to-market organization will kick off in January. We expect to be able to slash our time to market by at least 50%. Being able to respond more quickly to customers and their marketing teams and bringing products to market. We see growing demand, you know, for that, particularly as, you know, new consumers kind of maybe are not engaging with older brands in the same way. A need for new offerings, that's absolutely a feature broadening the market.

I think we've, you know, with our Fit-to-Win approach and the organization being much more agile, you know, working with customers differently and working with suppliers differently, we've been able to, you know, ramp up the speed at which we can get to market. Again, you know, I think there's kind of a narrative out there that Gen Z are walking away from certain categories. We actually see them just coming into categories in a different way. As I said, 60% of, you know, non-alcoholic new consumers are Gen Zers, you know, in many of the markets we're operating in. There is no question that NPD is a key part of our value shift strategy as we go forward, because typically we would have better margins from new products.

John Haudrich (CFO)

You know, I would, building on that, I mean, even though the market's been a little soft out there, the NAB, non-alcoholic beverage category in North America and Europe is up mid-single digits. We are seeing a bright spot in those categories. In particular, waters in that category have been doing very well. We have gotten some notable wins in those categories. We are seeing people come over to that. It is interesting, you can even Google it. There are articles out there saying, you know, about how people go out to dinner and they might have had a glass of wine, but now they prefer sparkling water or something like that on their table. It is an interesting set of dynamics that are playing through that also benefit the business.

Gordon Hardie (CEO)

Yeah, and I think glass, you know, is very well placed with these younger consumers because across the world, they are far more, you know, sustainability aware. They have a very, very positive view on glass packaging. You know, we're seeing that come through in these categories as well. Those are positive trends for us.

Got it. Got it. Really appreciate all that detail. It's really helpful. Just a quick follow-up, John, I think you mentioned a charge from an environmental liability during the quarter, I guess. Is that a new item? I didn't recall hearing that before, but maybe I missed it. Just any detail you can provide on that, thanks. I'll turn it over.

John Haudrich (CFO)

Yeah, I mean, you know, we've flagged this out for the last several quarters in the 10Q, but there was a former subsidiary that had an old, you know, paper mill that stopped operation in 1967. It's now on federal land. And we had, you know, there was a settlement with the federal government. So it's something 58 years old, but we did make a payment on that in the quarter. It was a little bit over $15 million as part of that $25 million-plus number that I was referring to.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We will now take our next question from Arun Viswanathan from RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Arun Viswanathan (Senior Equity Analyst)

Great. Thanks for taking my question. Congrats on the progress as well. I guess I just wanted to go back to the volume. You know, maybe some of the cushioning that you have. I think in the past, you've noted that each point of volume is maybe $0.07 in EPS, which we could potentially gross up to maybe $14 million of EBIT. Each point of production is $0.13, which is maybe, I do not know, $25 million of EBIT. You know, I think you went in the year expecting this year was going to be flattish on volumes. You were up low to mid-singles in the first half. I know you're up 4% in Q1, but it does look like you're now maybe down one on the year or so. Maybe could end up the year down two or three.

Does that kind of imply that you have $40 million-$50 million of EBIT cushion within Fit-to-win benefits that's offsetting that greater than expected weakness in volumes? Maybe you can just kind of frame out how you know, you're finding extra savings to offset the volume weakness. Thanks.

John Haudrich (CFO)

Yeah, Arun, I'll take that one. From a commercial performance standpoint, I think we're almost exactly on where we expected going into the year. Okay, so yes, you know, volumes are down, but we said about 2% for the year, and that has the cost that you referred to. Also, net price has been more favorable than anticipated going into the year. Those two have generally offset each other. Okay, so when you think of the net effect, and Gordon had said in the prepared comments, we're really trying to manage these levers between price and volume in a pretty soft environment, right? You know, we're trying to find that balance. That provides the best reasonable financial outcome to the business as we try to manage a stable top line.

With those two essentially offsetting each other, really the improvement in the year is fit to win. And that's where, you know, that's driving the upside. And that's driving, you know, this is the second time now that we raised guidance for the year. And it's really driven by the momentum on what we can control.

Gordon Hardie (CEO)

Yeah, I'm just a friend on that. You know. Sorry, go ahead.

John Haudrich (CFO)

No, that's fine. Go ahead, Gordon.

Gordon Hardie (CEO)

Yeah, no, and you know, as I said since the outset, you know, we're focused on, you know, better quality revenue and not chasing what I, you know, call kind of profitless prosperity volume for volume's sake. We really are strengthening the quality of the portfolio we have and improving the returns on the portfolio we have. You can also see that coming through in, you know, in the margin expansion. Obviously seeing it coming through on, you know, on the cash side as well. That's going to be an ongoing feature for us, right? You know, really improving the quality of the revenue we have going forward.

Arun Viswanathan (Senior Equity Analyst)

Great. You know, given this volume performance, do you think you'd have to take additional downtime as you go into 2026? Maybe you can also just update us on inventory levels, especially related to Europe and some of those wine markets and spirits and areas that you're seeing weakness. If you do have to take that downtime again, would you have other levers to pull on to offset those headwinds? Thanks.

John Haudrich (CFO)

You know, as far as our, you know, currently, I mean, we are balancing supply with demand. We still are carrying some, you know, lack of business downtime. Keep in mind that we did increase our permanent capacity closures, which we anticipate to be done by early part of next year. As a result, we think that we are going to be reasonably balanced between supply and demand once that is done. It will be substantially out of the LOB category for the business or the temporary downtime category for the business. As we look to the inventory management, I think we ended the third quarter in the low 50s, maybe 52 or 53 days. Our goal is around 50 days this year, which would be a, you know, about a 15% decrease on a year-over-year basis.

You know, the softer sales volumes that we're seeing, you know, right now, you know, we may end up in the low 50- to low 50-somewhere range, but very close to the overall goal that we anticipated. Yeah.

Arun Viswanathan (Senior Equity Analyst)

Thanks.

Chris Manuel (Head of Investor Relations)

I think we have time for one more question.

Operator (participant)

Thank you so much. We will now take our next question from Gabe Hajde from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Gabe Hajde (Equity Research Analyst)

Gordon, John, Chris, good morning.

John Haudrich (CFO)

Hey, Gabe. How are you?

Gabe Hajde (Equity Research Analyst)

I'm well. Thanks. Two questions. I guess. Looking at the model and just thinking about kind of how you're describing commercially things shaking out the way you wanted, competition a little bit different. I know you can't necessarily dictate and manage this quarter to quarter, but price accelerating pretty heavily in the Americas. Maybe I think I might know the answer to this, but can you parse out for us maybe the intentional business moves that's flowing through on the mix side, maybe the formulary price adjustments that are flowing through in the Americas, and then intentional price that you're taking in North America, if that makes any sense?

John Haudrich (CFO)

Yeah, Gabe, I can take a stab at that. Gordon can build on it if he has additional comments. You know, our price, you know, gross and net price, you know, is obviously softer in the first quarter. It is better, I mean, first half of the year, and it is better in the second half of the year. What you are seeing in the Americas is, you know, keep in mind, for example, North America, we pass through energy on a monthly or quarterly basis. You know, through the PAF process, you pick up a little bit more there. I would also say the Americas, you know, from a capacity standpoint, is probably in the mid to high 90s as far as capacity utilization. It is a pretty, you know, pretty tight environment in the Americas overall as a backdrop.

Compared to Europe, that is probably mid 90s to low 90s, to give you just a relative comparison. Keep in mind, Europe should improve as a number of different capacity closures are completed.

On the portfolio piece, Gabe, I mean, we have a very clear sort of process for how we make those decisions. You know, I think in previous calls, and certainly on Investor Day, we mentioned that we have visibility now in the business right down to SKU level on what the economic profit is by SKU in effect. I also mentioned that, you know, there are a bunch of things you can do internally to improve the economic profit of a particular product or a particular range. You know, we take a look at those and we say, okay, we can get that done. Does that make sense for us? Even having done that, or even if we were to do that on some ranges, we would still need, you know, significant price increases from the customers. Some.

Customers would say, yeah, okay, you know, the price and quality and what you give and service and so on is worth it. Some say, no, yeah, that's not for me. Then we make a view, you know, that piece goes out. Because what we find as well is those pieces of business add a lot of complexity into our supply chain. You know, there's a lot of hidden costs in there as well that can be. You know, it brings complexity to the lines. As part of our operational strategy of, you know, best at both, that relies on us, you know, having, you know, less, you know, complexity, particularly on the big furnaces, on the big lines. That has been a feature of the business over the years that the lines that were built for much longer runs ended up too complex.

We are cleaning up all of that. You know, there is a very intentional process of how we do that, and we understand, you know, what the financial implications are for that. You know, getting that non-economic volume out of the business is good, and you can see it coming through. It frees up capacity for power SKUs where we make a lot more money. That really is the thinking behind it, Gabe.

Gabe Hajde (Equity Research Analyst)

Got it. Maybe that kind of feeds into my second question. Mostly capacity adjustments I think you talked about in the U.S. or in the Americas. By our math, maybe 500,000 tons or so that's been identified in Europe. Less about the tons and closures. Really, I think you talked about 40% of that business that gets exported out of your European operations into some other part of the world. It's still relatively depressed. I guess what's enabling you to service that business that you talk about having the potential to come back with those capacity adjustments?

John Haudrich (CFO)

Yeah, you know, I think if you look at spirits largely, you know, in China, the two power markets for spirits out of Europe are the U.S. and China. I think, you know, what we're going through in the U.S. with, you know, some, you know, I'd call them, you know, short term, you know, in the context of years, you know, there's some pricing that, you know, consumers are coming up against. We think, you know, that's a cyclical thing. We also think the inventory in the system will work its way out. You know, the U.S. will, you know, will continue to take large quantities of, you know, spirits out of Europe. China at the moment, you know, is experiencing the same thing. You know, where demand is suppressed there.

You know, we see that working its way out over time and those markets coming back. You see the growth of markets like India and South Korea, you know, growing strongly. We're seeing, you know, the start of green shoots in travel retail, which is up about 3% in volume year to date, but still not, you know, not back particularly on a value basis to where it was pre-COVID. I think these are cyclical things that are going to work itself out. You know, we see ourselves having the capacity to match that when it comes back. Yeah.

To build on that, you know, Gabe, yes, we are closing out excess capacity to balance supply with demand. Keep in mind our TOE, total organization effectiveness program, is intended to unlock trapped capacity in the system. That will allow us to grow. That is by far the cheapest way to get capacity within the system with great operating leverage when you enable it.

Gabe Hajde (Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you. Getting the operations a lot fitter and then sweating them a lot harder than they were in the past. Okay.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. I'll now pass the conference back over to Chris for any additional remarks.

Chris Manuel (Head of Investor Relations)

Thank you. That concludes our earnings call. Please note our year-end and fourth quarter call is currently scheduled for Wednesday, February 11, 2026. Remember, make it a memorable moment by choosing safe, sustainable glass. Thank you.

John Haudrich (CFO)

Thank you.

Gordon Hardie (CEO)

Thanks all.

Operator (participant)

That concludes the O-I Glass third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your line.