OI
Olo Inc. (OLO)·Q3 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Olo delivered a “beat-and-raise” Q3: revenue $71.9M (+24% YoY) and non-GAAP operating income $8.2M, both above the high end of guidance, while gross margin stepped down as mix tilted to Olo Pay; FY24 revenue guidance raised to $281.4–$281.9M and NGOI to $30.2–$30.5M .
- Execution catalysts: card-present pilots for Olo Pay launching with Qu and NCR Voyix in Q4, Borderless accounts now >10M, and deeper ezCater integration—supporting data-driven personalization and ARPU expansion .
- KPIs: ARPU ~$850 (+15% YoY, flat QoQ), locations ~85k (+3k QoQ), NRR >120%; Olo hit its 5k net new locations target one quarter early and now expects ~6k adds in 2024 .
- Watch items: sequential ARPU pause tied to Wingstop downsell and single-module new logos; gross margin trough in 2024 as Pay scales; CRO transition by year-end could create near-term go-to-market uncertainty .
- Stock-relevant narrative: accelerating payments (card-present) + Engage/Borderless data flywheel vs. near-term margin dilution; raised FY guide and pilots are positive catalysts, while leadership changes and margin trajectory remain investor debate points .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- “Beat-and-raise” quarter: revenue/NGOI exceeded high-end of guidance; FY24 revenue/NGOI guidance raised (Q4 revenue $72.5–$73.0M; NGOI $8.7–$9.0M) .
- Strategic momentum: card-present functionality generally available on Qu POS, pilots expected with Qu and NCR Voyix in Q4; Borderless accounts surpassed 10M, scaling 10x YoY .
- Multi-suite/product expansion: Catering+ deployments (Bojangles, Cowboy Chicken, Mendocino Farms), deeper ezCater integration automating menu updates; enterprise adds like Dutch Bros (Ordering + Pay CNP) and Paris Baguette (Order + Pay CNP) .
What Went Wrong
- Gross margin compressed sequentially to ~60.7% non-GAAP (~54% GAAP) as Pay mix increased; management still expects FY24 to be the trough in gross profit growth .
- ARPU flat QoQ at ~$850 due to Wingstop’s transition from 3 modules to 1 and single-module new logos (e.g., Long John Silver’s on Rails), despite +15% YoY .
- Leadership transition: CRO Diego Panama departing Dec 31; interim sales oversight by CEO while search begins—raises execution focus on bookings while COO expands remit .
Financial Results
Sequential performance (Q1–Q3 2024)
YoY comparison (Q3 2024 vs Q3 2023)
Revenue mix (Platform vs Services)
KPIs
Guidance Changes
Notes:
- Workforce reduction (~9% headcount) lowers annual cost base by ~$8M; ~60% flows to NGOI with remainder reinvested .
- Company expects gross profit growth to reaccelerate in 2025; Q4 GM flat vs Q3 .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO framing: “We delivered revenue and bottom line performance that exceeded the high-end of our guidance ranges… and positioned us to complete a successful 2024,” highlighting the platform’s role enabling personalization and profitable traffic .
- Card-present catalyst: “We expect to launch 5 Olo Pay card-present pilots in Q4 with brands on Qu and NCR Voyix… Olo Pay pipeline is building… majority with enterprise brands,” underscoring payment and data flywheel .
- Borderless scale: “Borderless continues to scale… more than 10 million accounts, up 10x from 1 million a year ago,” aiding guest-level personalization .
- CFO discipline and mix: Non-GAAP GM ~60.7% (down ~200bps QoQ) “reflect the impact of this quarter’s revenue outperformance as well as the increasing mix of Olo Pay revenue,” while OpEx ratios improved across all lines .
- Cost actions: Workforce reduction lowers annual cost base by ~$8M, with ~60% to NGOI and remainder reinvested; FY GM low-60s; GP growth seen reaccelerating in 2025 .
Q&A Highlights
- Olo Pay growth path: Management sees $2.5B GPV in 2024 vs ~$26B GMV and <2% penetration of addressable ~$160B GMV with card-present; pilots to drive 2025 momentum .
- ARPU dynamics: Sequential flat driven by Wingstop downsell and single-module logos; long-term ARPU expansion supported by 16+ modules and Pay adoption .
- Gross margin outlook: GM pressure from Pay mix offset by cost optimization (RIF); Q4 GM flat vs Q3; 2025 GP growth reacceleration contingent on card-present ramp and higher-margin software (Order/Engage) .
- Go-to-market transition: CRO departure refocuses on bookings; interim sales leadership by CEO; COO consolidates marketing, CS, partnerships to tighten product-commercialization linkage .
- Capital return: Plan to initiate a 10b5-1 buyback in Q4 under $100M authorization (post-litigation settlement) .
Estimates Context
- Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q3 and Q4 was unavailable due to data access limits; as a result, numerical comparison to consensus cannot be provided at this time. Values from S&P Global were unavailable.
- Company context: Q3 revenue/non-GAAP operating income exceeded high end of guidance; FY24 revenue/NGOI guidance raised; Q4 guidance introduced—indicating a positive estimates revision bias is likely among analysts .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Payments-led expansion is the key catalyst: card-present pilots with Qu/NCR Voyix and growing POS/kiosk partners should accelerate Olo Pay scale and deepen Engage data, supporting ARPU growth even as near-term margins dilute from mix .
- Data flywheel strengthens: Borderless (>10M accounts) and Engage case studies demonstrate measurable revenue uplift via personalization; expect increased cross-sell into Engage as payments consolidate guest data .
- KPI trajectory: locations growth ahead of plan (~6k adds expected for 2024) supports baseline revenue, while ARPU expansion remains the larger driver over time despite Q3 sequential pause .
- Margin path: FY24 is the trough in GP growth; watch Q4 GM stabilization and 2025 reacceleration tied to card-present and higher-margin software modules (Order, Engage) .
- Execution watchlist: CRO transition and bookings focus—monitor pipeline conversion, especially enterprise wins and multi-suite deals; any slippage could affect ARPU trajectories .
- Capital allocation: with ~$392M cash & investments and buyback plan resuming under 10b5-1, capital return provides downside support, contingent on operating momentum .
- Tactical trading: raised FY guide and card-present pilots are near-term positive catalysts; margin debate and leadership change may cap multiple—position for follow-through on payments milestones and ARPU acceleration in early 2025 .
Appendix: Additional Press Releases Relevant to Q3 Themes
- ezCater integration: automated menu updates via Olo Rails to simplify catering menu management—supports Catering+ momentum and operational efficiency for enterprise brands .