Olaplex - Q3 2022

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good morning, and welcome to Olaplex, Inc.'s third quarter 2022 financial results conference call. All participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, we will conduct a question and answer session. To ask a question, you'll need to press star one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, please press star one again. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Allison Malkin of ICR. Please go ahead, Ms. Malkin.

Allison Malkin (ICR)

Thank you. Before we start, I would like to remind you that management will make certain statements today which are forward-looking, including statements about the outlook of Olaplex's business and other matters referenced in the company's earnings release issued today. Each forward-looking statement is subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in or implied by such statements. Additional information regarding these factors appears under the heading Cautionary Note regarding Forward-Looking Statements in the company's earnings release and in the filings the company makes with the Securities and Exchange Commission that are available at www.sec.gov and on the investor relations section of the company's website at ir.olaplex.com. The forward-looking statements on this call speak only as of the original date of this call, and we undertake no obligation to update or revise any of these statements.

Also, during this call, management will discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures which management believes can be useful in evaluating the company's performance. The presentation of non-GAAP financial measures should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for results prepared in accordance with GAAP. You will find additional information regarding these non-GAAP financial measures and a reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in the company's earnings release. A live broadcast of this call is also available on the investor relations section of the company's website at ir.olaplex.com. I will now turn the call over to JuE Wong.

JuE Wong (CEO)

Thank you, Allison, and good morning, everyone. Before we get into the details of Q3 and the balance of 2022, I'd like to take a step back for a moment to provide some perspective on our business. Since our founding and over the course of the last year as a public company, we have built a business that is truly differentiated in the beauty category and specifically in prestige haircare. We created the bond building haircare segment, launching a new subcategory that has changed the way consumers treat, protect, and maintain healthy hair. We have been innovative, focusing on science-based, patent-protected technology and building an incredibly powerful brand. The quality of our product has contributed to our strong consumer loyalty and retention, which has translated into strong sales growth and industry-leading margins.

Today, I will detail the steps we are taking that are intended to ensure that we have in place the processes and tools necessary to better drive and forecast consumer and customer demand and ultimately reestablish our authoritative standing in the market. I will then share some details behind our longer-term plans that gives us confidence in our growth trajectory. Ultimately, we believe that the fundamental competitive advantages of our business remain intact, and importantly, we are responding forcefully and quickly to the issues that have developed recently. I'll quickly provide some details on the quarter, and I will then discuss the actions we are taking in an effort to strengthen the business in the short term. I'll then turn the call over to Eric to discuss third quarter results in greater detail and will wrap up the call with some details of our long-range plans for the business.

For the third quarter, our results were in line with what we provided on our business update call on October 18. Net sales were $176.5 million, up 9.2% versus a year ago. An adjusted EBITDA of $102 million, declined 4.5% year-over-year versus up 63% last year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 57.8% for the third quarter this year, compared to an adjusted EBITDA margin of 66.1% for the third quarter of 2021. Now, let's discuss the actions we are taking to address some of the short-term issues we are experiencing. We are primarily focused on two key areas. Our first priority is to accelerate demand. Secondly, we are taking actions that are designed to enhance our forecasting capabilities.

I'll start with the actions we are taking to drive demand. Let me start with our professional channel, which constitutes 43% of our business and consists of take-home retail products sold in the salon and products used in the back bar, including treatments. We continue to have the number one selling SKU sold through salons in the U.S. in each subcategory, shampoo, conditioner, and styling as per Kline through the second quarter of 2022. We have increased investment for the fourth quarter in building awareness across the stylist community in the key markets of the U.S., U.K., Australia, and France. We have also partnered with new chains and key opinion leader salons in the U.S. and Canada to further drive awareness, PR, and sales.

We have proactively taken steps to rebalance inventory at one of our key U.S. distributors to improve overall inventory mix and provide a more stable foundation for 2023. as we mentioned on our business update call, while we can't control the macro environment, we are taking steps to support our pro stylist community during this challenging time. In the U.S., we have relaunched our pro affiliate program, providing stylists with the ability to receive a commission on net sales when their customers buy Olaplex using an affiliate code at olaplex.com. In our specialty retail channel, we are enhancing exposure with several of our key retail partners and introducing programs that are designed to drive trial and customer acquisition.

To this end, at Sephora, beginning in the first quarter of next year, we will participate in sampling for their buy online, pickup in store program, providing upwards of 500,000 samples of our No. 3 Hair Perfector. In past trials, the conversion to purchase with samples was extremely high, and we believe that this strategy will be highly effective for Olaplex at Sephora. At Ulta, we will be tapping into a 360 retail salon cross-shop strategy starting in January, providing a No. 3 sample with any Olaplex salon service. When we tested this at another retailer with a salon presence, we saw a nearly 100% conversion to full size and hope to also see positive results at Ulta.

In the specialty retail channel, we are piloting a program to bring a third-party field sales team of educators trained by Olaplex into top 75 Sephora and Ulta retail stores in the fourth quarter of 2022. This has been one of the most requested actions by our retail partners. We are expecting a meaningful sales lift during the program in these stores during the pilot program, and we will assess further rollout potential in 2023. Next, let's talk about visibility into demand trends. Given the rapidly evolving macro and competitive dynamics and the very high growth trend that we have been lapping, we recognize that we need to evolve our business forecasting processes and are currently implementing demand planning improvements that will help us better track underlying consumer and customer sentiment and behavior, which we believe will provide more insight into our channels.

This includes new tools that are designed to allow our team better visibility in customer sell-through and inventory levels, where that data is available in an effort to better predict future demand. Before I pass it over to Eric, I want to share an organizational update regarding our investor relations function. We are pleased to welcome Patrick Flaherty to Olaplex, who has joined us as Vice President of Investor Relations. Patrick comes to Olaplex with more than a decade of experience in investor relations across several industries and with deep knowledge of the beauty category after serving on the investor relations team at Ulta Beauty. With the appointment of Patrick, we look forward to continuing on our commitment to providing high-quality service to the investment community. At this point, I'll turn the call over to Eric to cover third quarter results, and then we'll return to share our longer-range plans.

Eric?

Eric Tiziani (CFO)

Thank you, JuE Wong, and good morning, everyone. As we discussed with you on our business update call, we had a challenging third quarter. As JuE Wong just discussed, we are taking immediate action to address the issues we encountered, and we are confident in our long-term growth trajectory. First, we want to recap our results from our business update call on October 18 and share our finalized numbers. In the third quarter of 2022, net sales increased 9.2% to $176.5 million versus $161.6 million last year. By channel, specialty retail sales increased 60% to $74.2 million on top of a robust 128% gain in the prior year period.

We saw continued growth from our highly successful launch into Ulta Beauty and higher sell-in to support the holiday season this year, including growth from selling in more holiday kits versus last year. Professional channel sales declined 16% to $63 million, versus a 58% increase last year, as our U.S. distributor partners reduced purchases to adjust inventory levels given softer demand from stylists, which we believe is partially driven by macroeconomic concerns. Our direct-to-consumer channel sales were down 2.6% to $39.3 million, following an 87% increase last year due to slower sell-through related to weakening market growth and increased competitive activity, including discounting. In the third quarter, we also saw a key U.S. DTC customer reduce orders to meet lower targeted levels of inventory on hand.

By geography, international led our growth with a 27.8% increase, driven by strong contributions from the U.K., Italy, France, Germany, Canada, and our emerging cross-border e-commerce business in China. The US declined 4.3%, driven by the aforementioned pressures in the professional and DTC channels. Moving down the income statement. Adjusted gross profit margin was 75.1%, declining 480 basis points from 79.9% in Q3 2021. Approximately 210 basis points of this contraction reflects deleverage and inflation in our warehousing distribution costs. 150 basis points from inflation on product costs.

160 basis points of unfavorable mix from the higher sales of holiday kits with the balance related to unfavorable product and customer mix that is offset by the benefit of the price increase we took from July 1, 2022. Adjusted SG&A increased 27.9% to $28.4 million, from $22.2 million in Q3 2021. The $6.2 million increase in adjusted SG&A from prior year reflects investments made to support the long-term growth of our business, including a $4.3 million increase in sales and marketing expense, a $2.5 million increase in public company costs and other related expenses, a $2.2 million increase in workforce expansion, and a $2.1 million increase related to professional fees.

Adjusted EBITDA declined 4.5% to $102 million versus $106.8 million in the third quarter of 2021. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 57.8% compared to 66.1% a year ago. Adjusted net income decreased 1.6% year-over-year to $73.3 million, or $0.11 per diluted share, from $74.4 million or $0.11 per diluted share in the 2021 third quarter. Adjusted net income benefited from lower interest expense year-over-year, resulting from our first quarter debt paydown and refinance. Now turning to the balance sheet.

Inventory at the end of the third quarter was $151.3 million, compared to $140.3 million at the end of the second quarter and $98.4 million at the end of 2021. As mentioned on our October call, this is higher than originally planned due to our lower sales delivery in the quarter. We have already altered our sourcing plans and slowed procurement to match the new sales forecast. Over time, this will lower our own inventory to target levels and the timing of this will depend on sell-through trends. Turning to cash flow.

We once again generated strong cash flow with $181.8 million in cash from operations through the end of the third quarter, up from $130.3 million for the same period last year. We ended the quarter with $249.4 million in cash and equivalents. Long-term debt, net of current portion and deferred fees, was $655.7 million. Now turning to our outlook. We are reiterating our fiscal year 2022 guidance that we provided on our business update call on October eighteenth. We plan net sales in the range of $704 million-$711 million, an increase of 18% at the midpoint.

Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $425 million-$431 million, an increase of 5% at the midpoint. Adjusted net income in the range of $303 million-$307 million, an increase of 11% midpoint. Similarly, at the midpoint of our fiscal 2022 sales guidance, our implied expectation for net sales growth by channel and geography remains consistent with what we shared on our October business update call. As it relates to the fourth quarter, while we have actions in place to accelerate growth, we are still planning for an increasingly difficult macroeconomic operating environment and for further inventory rebalancing by several key customers related to our slower sales momentum.

Based on today's macro environment and our current forecast, we expect this inventory rebalancing to normalize by the end of the first quarter, 2023 in our professional and specialty retail channels. As a reminder, our guidance for Q4 also reflects that we will not be able to lap the robust sales lift that we experienced during the fourth quarter holiday period last year when we grew 78%, benefiting from significant replenishment orders across our specialty retail and DTC channels at a time when we believe consumer demand was stronger and some of our competitors struggled with consistent supply. In summary, our recently revised guidance for the second half of 2022 sales represents a pause from the exceptionally strong performance that we have seen through the first half of 2022.

We are confident that with our proven strategy, strong track record of execution, and leadership in a resilient high-growth category, we have significant opportunities ahead. Now, I will turn the call back over to JuE Wong to conclude with commentary on our long-term strategy.

JuE Wong (CEO)

Thank you, Eric. In turning to our long-term strategic initiatives, we are focused on four key pillars that we believe will help us succeed in the years to come. They include igniting our global brand, disrupting with innovation, amplifying channel coverage, and charting new geographies. We believe that these pillars, taken together with our foundation in category-defining technology and meaningful connection with the consumer and stylist community, position us nicely for continued growth. Let's start with igniting our global brand. We have built one of the most powerful brands in the industry. We have successfully expanded awareness within our key segments and have seen our aided brand awareness increase 700 basis points from the beginning of the year based on our internal brand tracker. We know, however, that we cannot rest on our laurels, especially given the attractiveness of the market opportunity.

As we have consistently said in the past, we plan to continue to increase our marketing investments to grow awareness and build equity for our brand. Our marketing model will continue to focus on the high ROI activities that have proven to be so effective for us to date, community engagement with our stylists and consumers, sampling, performance marketing, and visual merchandising. This model has been highly effective at generating additional earned media value. We will continue to expand our global community reach with a focus on engagement across our pro, influencer, and fan communities, ensuring that we have more diverse audiences in mind. We intend to introduce a new seeding program to ensure we are fueling our robust user-generated content library and powerful real people reviews. We will reinforce our pros as our opinion leaders and give them the platform to showcase their work.

Next, we believe we can continue to grow our business through disruptive innovation and groundbreaking new products. We are a science-based beauty company. We have over 100 patents across the globe and a dedicated R&D team with an in-house innovation lab. In 2022, we launched No. 9 Bond Protector Nourishing Hair Serum, No. 4C Bond Maintenance Clarifying Shampoo, and our Broad Spectrum Chelating Treatment. As we look ahead, we have an aggressive plan to launch non-cannibalizing pro and retail products over the next 5 years. With only 14 product offerings today, product expansion into attractive new segments remains a significant opportunity. We are planning to launch 2-3 retail SKUs and 1 pro backbar treatments product annually. In addition, we expect to launch into non-haircare adjacencies.

We continue to have ample room for growth in increasing penetration with consumers in our existing points of distribution globally, as well as participating in new door growth with existing and new partners. In professional, we were only in 15% of US salons in 2021 per Kline. This leaves us with a major opportunity. Historically, we have outperformed in moderate and value-oriented salons, but there are tremendous opportunities to introduce our products in premium and prestige salons, which is the foundation for our pro plan in 2023 and beyond. In the specialty retail channel, we have significant white space in penetration. In Sephora US, we believe approximately 12% of total Sephora shoppers purchase Olaplex, while a best-in-class brand across categories is closer to 20%-25%. We have significant room to grow.

Furthermore. As Sephora continues to expand into Kohl's, there are new doors that will continue to have a six-shelf linear dedicated space to Olaplex. At Ulta Beauty, we are still in the early innings of penetration, with Olaplex in less than 5% of Ulta's shoppers' baskets. We believe penetration could increase significantly given that Ulta is a destination for hair care, where hair care accounts for 20% of their total business. We also have an opportunity to secure multi-facing in-store space and expand reach within Ulta Salon, where only 25% of salon services use Olaplex. Next, let's discuss how we are growing geographically. Our priority international regions in the next several years will include Asia and Europe, and we have specific plans in place for new market entries and expansions.

We believe that we have a very significant opportunity across Asia, and we know from our seeding efforts that Olaplex brand is resonating well with the consumer in those markets. We have recently launched a new master distributors in Southeast Asia and in South Korea. In China, we continue to build significant momentum through the cross-border e-commerce channel. Across Europe, we are complementing our strong professional business with additional partners in specialty retail and DTC. Sephora Europe and Douglas remain two good examples of where we see both penetration and door growth opportunities. In addition, we believe that we can enter approximately 2,000 new premium specialty doors in the EU, and there are additional opportunities to grow in pharmacies, many of which focus on beauty products. Travel retail also represents a big opportunity for us in the medium term.

As previously mentioned, we intend to start by entering into travel retail in Europe, beginning in Q4 of 2022. This is a channel that will further expand our visibility while generating sales. To close, it is important that I discuss why I remain so excited about this business and its long-term prospects. From a broader perspective, the retail beauty market, while not immune to macro factors, has proven to be resilient. Premium haircare is still in its early stages of adoption and is outperforming the rest of the prestige beauty market. Per NPD, prestige hair grew 23% in Q3 versus last year, with Olaplex growing 35% versus last year. Olaplex is the category leader in bond building with an incredibly powerful brand in the market.

Based on our consolidation of third-party data sources, we believe our market share in U.S. retail, plus front-of-salon sales in the first half of 2022 is 15%, which would make us the market leader. We have passionate consumers. As per our internal brand tracker of U.S. premium haircare consumers, Olaplex is the number one or number two leader in all 15 positive haircare attribute categories, which we believe helps us to drive consumer loyalty and allow us to sustain best-in-class conversion to purchase rates. We believe that we have the science-based technology to successfully expand into adjacent segments, both in haircare subcategories and in new categories. We believe that our patents and strong relationships with our channel partners provide a formidable competitive moat.

We have a strong balance sheet, industry-leading margins, and strong cash flow generation, which provides the financial means to execute our vision and capture a significant portion of this large and growing market. We have a talented, dedicated team with deep experience navigating through difficult market conditions. This concludes my prepared remarks. We will now turn the call back over to the operator for questions. Operator?

Operator (participant)

Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. In the interest of time, we ask that you please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Thank you. Our first question comes from Jonna Kim from Cowen. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Jonna Kim (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you for taking my question. You know, you've done really well in terms of marketing spend, keeping it very low in the low single digit range. As you think about increasing brand awareness, both in the professional channel and among consumers, do you expect you need to spend more in terms of marketing? As you think about marketing strategy, what are some of the higher ROI channels that you can further invest in? Thank you so much.

JuE Wong (CEO)

Thanks, Jonna. This is JuE. I will take that question. You know, first of all, what we have always believed in is that our model really works when it comes to high-performance marketing, looking at our return on investment, and we have always said, we will invest ahead of growth, and this includes our people. Our R&D in terms of innovation and in sales and marketing activities, initiatives, and strategies. As you have seen, we continue to be the best in class, whether it's in our rankings across all channels, professional, retail, DTC.

We want to double-click on what works, which is engaging our customers on social media, being at where they shop, and in this case, you have just heard us say that we are going to be putting people into stores, that not only are trained by us, but can actually educate consumers, educate in-store, beauty advisors that are with those retailers, and more importantly, help with sell-through. All of these activations are both near term but will also establish the foundation for us as we move into 2023 and beyond.

Jonna Kim (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Got it. Just one follow-up, given the competitive dynamics, and you touched on this a little bit, but how do you think about your innovation pipeline? Could you just touch on, I know your customers are likely to purchase new products when you launch and even adjacent categories, but just any color will be helpful on how you're thinking about that. Thank you.

JuE Wong (CEO)

Thanks, Jonah. Yes. You know, it is important to note consumers are always going to be looking for newness. Studies has also shown that consumers really also gravitate and go back to what works. In this case, Olaplex is the creator of the bond-building category. Why I talk about that is your hair bonds needs is the foundation all for hair health. If you do not take care of your hair bonds, no matter what you do, you're not going to address that first and foremost, that foundation to give your hair that opportunity to stay healthy. With that said, we hold those patents. We deliver on repairing hair bonds in the first application.

Our leadership position will continue to drive interest in this category, which we really believe is a good thing because as more consumers know about it, they're going to want to test products. I just want to conclude by just saying that we truly deliver what works. It is not just marketing speak, and we don't lead with patent-pending promise. We actually already have patents, well over 100 patents, to really deliver on the promise that we say, which is repairing, strengthening, and protecting your hair bonds.

Jonna Kim (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you.

JuE Wong (CEO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Olivia Tong from Raymond James. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Olivia Tong (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Great. Thank you. You wanted to start with, you mentioned a couple of new channels, particularly European specialty doors, travel retail entering this quarter. My understanding is that these are lower margin channels. Can you give us just a sense of the margin impact from some of the planned expansion? Just generally your view on longer-term margins. You talked a lot about few investments to support growth. Just thinking through other potential areas, you know, whether you intend to re-backfill the COO role or add any additional personnel in certain capacities, whether demand forecasting, retail relationships, marketing, those kinds of things. Thank you.

JuE Wong (CEO)

Eric, why don't you take the questions on the margins and I'll come back in on the COO role?

Eric Tiziani (CFO)

Of course. Thanks, JuE. Hi, Olivia. Just the first question about entering into some new customers and channels. We've consistently said that the way we evaluate these growth opportunities is through the primary lens of incrementality. We think that those customers in those new channels are gonna be highly incremental to the business. Even with a slight margin dilution, that's gonna be a positive thing for creating value for the business. How that pertains and builds on your question around long-term margins, our message here is very consistent with what we've said in the past. We will continue to invest in marketing R&D and the organization ahead of growth.

Because of the disruptive model that we have, we believe that even after those investments, we're gonna have industry-leading profit margins in the medium term.

JuE Wong (CEO)

Thanks, Eric. Olivia, let me kind of follow up to an answer on your sort of the COO role. We are excited about this opportunity to sort of create this new role because all sales channel will report to this person. In doing this, it creates really an opportunity to build on our already strong sales team and enhance connections across all our channels. The most important thing to note is that with something of that nature, where one person looks at all the channels, we are then able to share best practices as well as leveraging data to help us make better decisions, whether it's in sales, whether it's in collaboration with marketing, and then ultimately really driving healthy sell-through.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Robert Ottenstein from Evercore. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Robert Ottenstein (Senior Managing Director)

Great. Thank you very much. Standing back, it sounds like September really slowed down a lot. I think you'd mentioned before NPD sales were up 50% July and August, and then for the whole quarter, just 35%. A pretty bad September. Can you give us actually, you know, kind of what happened in September and October in terms of e-commerce and retail? To what extent do you think, if any

Your price increase had to the slowdown in sales. You know, as you stand back and think about it, you know, how do you assess the, you know, the execution on the price increase and the timing of it? Thank you.

JuE Wong (CEO)

Thanks, first of all, Robert, for the question. Eric, do you wanna take that back half of the question and I'll call, you know, talk about the first half of Robert's question because that is an overall.

Eric Tiziani (CFO)

Absolutely, JuE. Hi, Robert. I'll say two things and then, JuE, of course, you build on this. Let me start by actually answering your question about September and October. Clearly, we did see a slowdown in September. That's what we covered on our October eighteenth, you know, update call. You know, just speaking to October as well, this is very much about the fact that we don't believe we're gonna be able to lap this exceptionally strong period that we had in the prior year holiday period when you know, replenishment orders were very high, consumer demand, we believe was stronger. Even some of our competitors, we believe, you know, were struggling to keep in stock. That's what's being reflected in that NPD data.

I'll build on that, though, because of the actions we're taking, the marketing activations we're putting in place. We are pleased and we are seeing, you know, positive early signals from the activities that we're putting in place. On pricing, we have no evidence to date, whether it's from consumer feedback or stylist feedback, that the pricing action that we took in July of this year is having a negative impact on our business. We don't believe that's a primary driver.

Robert Ottenstein (Senior Managing Director)

Well, Eric, maybe.

Eric Tiziani (CFO)

Over the period.

Robert Ottenstein (Senior Managing Director)

I'll just, I get the tough comp with the prior year, and that makes a lot of sense. Can you give us any details in terms of sequential net sales?

Eric Tiziani (CFO)

Yeah. I mean, sequential actual sales, you'll see it in NPD as well, over time are building. They're building because it, you know, sales get stronger as the holiday season progresses, and maybe that's one more comment. What we've seen so far is, you know, the holiday season is consistent with our revised expectations, and that includes the fact that we think consumers are shopping a little bit later in the holiday than last year, where I think we can all remember because of the global macro supply chain concerns and worries about products being out of stock. You know, everyone was driving for holiday even earlier, even in September last year. We're not seeing that trend this year, but we are seeing things pick up, especially based on our own marketing activations for holiday in October.

Robert Ottenstein (Senior Managing Director)

Well, just in terms of September, what did the September actual, like NPD sales on an absolute basis look like compared to July and August? Forget the year-over-year, just sequentially, did they increase in September or decrease? What kind of order of magnitude?

Eric Tiziani (CFO)

Yeah.

JuE Wong (CEO)

Robert, can I so help answer that question and provide some clarity? You know, we have always said that prestige beauty is resilient, but it is not immune, right, to macro conditions. If you look at what NPD tracks of the 14 consumer groups, prestige beauty is still the strongest in terms of where it grows. We participated in a category that is truly resilient, and we are leading in terms of the prestige hair category. We feel confident that despite some of the consumer sentiments and the macroeconomic slowdown, and we are not immune to it, but we have activations and activities that will help with sell-through, that partners with our retail professional and DTC partners.

You heard Eric said that we, you know, the near-term activations that we have put in, while it's early days, but I can share with you that the pilot program that we implemented by putting in educators and salespeople into the stores is already showing very promising results. We have seen week-over-week that has more than doubled our week-over-week sales. This is a pilot program in limited stores. We feel confident that activations like this will continue to help set us up for success, both the near term as well as for the future.

Robert Ottenstein (Senior Managing Director)

Great. Just to circle back, the price increase that you took, you don't believe really had any impact on the slowdown?

JuE Wong (CEO)

No, we don't believe that has.

Robert Ottenstein (Senior Managing Director)

Okay. Thank you very much.

JuE Wong (CEO)

Thanks, Robert.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Jason English from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead, your line is open.

Jason English (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)

Hey, good morning, folks. A couple of questions. First, on that last point, great to hear the response you're seeing so far from the educators you're putting in these pilot stores. How broad-based is it in the fourth quarter? I guess it must be fully reflected in the guidance, which you're reiterating. As we look at these type of margin profiles for the fourth quarter that you're projecting, is this what we should anchor to as we contemplate, like, the amount of money you're gonna have to spend going forward, whether it be in-store educators, the you know, the plus up on ad marketing, the engagement more KOLs, everything you've talked about. Is that a good anchor point as we think about these 2023 and beyond?

Eric Tiziani (CFO)

I'll take that second part of the question, and then, JuE Wong, I think you'll wanna answer on the nature of the pilot, that we're doing. Look, Jason English, I would say, no, we're not suggesting that the fourth quarter in isolation is the right extrapolation point for, you know, looking at 2023 or beyond. Consistently, we're gonna keep on investing in marketing, and into the organization, and we believe we're gonna be able to maintain industry-leading margins. Q4 and the Q4 margin profile isn't what I would project forward.

Jason English (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)

Okay.

JuE Wong (CEO)

Thanks, Eric. Jason, sorry. Go ahead, Jason.

Jason English (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)

It wasn't really a two-part question. It was just a one-part question. So, I think Eric covered it. I do have another question, though. Just as we try to wrap our head around what's happened with the business, clearly we all got a little too enthusiastic and excited about the sales trajectory for the business. I think a lot it's 'cause we didn't appreciate that there was a cohort of consumers who probably came in who didn't really have the problems that your product solved. They came in because there was hype behind it, right? Like it was the shiny new toy, and now there are other new shiny new toys that are out there.

I've got no doubt that your product does solve a very real problem for a large cohort of consumers, but we appear to be in this washout phase of the others who've come in. Have you had any success kinda sizing those cohorts, to understand how much of that revenue that you've generated in the last year maybe came from this fickle consumer who's now moving on to the next new thing? If so, can you share what you've learned and also share how you got to that answer?

JuE Wong (CEO)

Great. No, thanks a lot, Jason, for this question. It is important to note that, yes, you know, we created the category, we created a lot of excitement, but ultimately it was not a brand that rests on marketing. It's not a brand that talks about the fact that, you know, oh, you may need this product. It is scientifically proven and clinically supported. When we say that consumers do understand, and that's why you're seeing the prestige hair category being tracked by NPD starting in 2015. What is important to note is that it is still in its early stages. Consumers are going to try different things, but they consistently look for value. Our transformation team on a monthly basis track what are the important attributes that consumers are looking for. They are looking for products that work.

They are looking for products that consistently delivers on their promise. They're looking for brands that they can trust, not just on marketing hype or promises that they cannot deliver. We do all of that, and in fact, in those top 15 attributes, we rank number one or number two against our competitive cohorts. When you see that kind of results and you see what has happened in terms of, you know, our updated business update, it is definitely not us because the brand still resonates. If we did not resonate, then consumers, we will not be able to retain them. We are still the best in class when it comes to our consumer retention. And I know your question is a very big question.

Hopefully, I have kind of distilled the answer for you in such a way that you can see that the brand fundamentals are strong, and we are tracking attributes that captures that strong brand fundamentals.

Jason English (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)

Yeah. That's helpful. Thank you, JuE Wong.

JuE Wong (CEO)

Thanks, Jason.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Jonathan Keypour from Bank of America. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Jonathan Keypour (Analyst)

Hi. Good morning, everybody. Thank you for the question. I guess tacking on to Jason's question, I just wanted to get a sense of, from a competitive standpoint, instead of from the user standpoint, if you could kinda help us understand where that pressure that you cited is coming from. Is it mainly from the large international players with you know well-supported portfolios? Or is it you know these small startup brands? Is it brands that have their own scientific backing? Is it just brands? Basically, I just wanna get an idea of, is the competition you're seeing coming from a brand that is maybe less useful in hair but is marketed better? Or is it coming from brands where the technology is also a selling point?

JuE Wong (CEO)

Thanks, Jonathan. Let me take that question. I just want to very, at the very top, still confirm that we are still guiding to a midpoint of +18% growth. I mean, if you think about it, we were at +87% growth last year. Despite all of the macro headwinds, despite all of the, you know, conditions that we have shared with you, we are still on an upward trajectory. We are still generating, you know, cash. And we are a brand that consumers still believes in because you don't get that kind of ranking. I mean, you don't get to be number one in all channels of trade by not resonating with your consumers. So when we talk about competition or competition discounting, we are not negating that they are important. But what we are saying is that this category is getting more attention.

It is attractive. People are gonna come in. As Jason mentioned, consumers are going to chase after some shiny penny. But at the end of the day, it has to work. It has to deliver results. We believe we stand the best chance to get there because we have a patent that is proven. You know, a lot of brands still continue to say patent pending. Patent pending is different from patent, patented, and it's available to the customers, where they can actually check out and see that our patent works, and we support it with clinical claims. I just want to kind of clarify on that point.

We know that we need to continue to be very mindful of how we speak to the consumers, and that is the reason why we have people in store now, that we can cut through, you know, the noise and be right there where the consumers are.

Jonathan Keypour (Analyst)

Great. I guess one small follow-up that's related is that in the approach, are there any contractual obligations or mechanisms or anything like that to keep your salon base using Olaplex for a certain time period? Is there any kind of aside from the technology and the function and the consumer reaction to Olaplex, which is, you know, admittedly very positive, is there anything, I guess, keeping the salon base you currently have using the product, or is it a little more. Is there less friction there?

JuE Wong (CEO)

No. Thanks for that question, Jonathan. I know what you're trying to ask. You're trying to say, are they committed to, you know?

Jonathan Keypour (Analyst)

Yeah.

JuE Wong (CEO)

You know, regardless. Their commitment to us. We do constant focus group. We do constant check-in with the professional community because we have said time and time again, they are the ones who really gives us that authority. When we're checking with them, the most important thing that they tell us is, we give them the opportunity to elevate their craft. We give them the opportunity to really know that they can deliver the best for their clients. When you're able to deliver on those promises for them and elevate their craft the way we can, where they don't have to worry going back to the bowl and unwrapping those foils and seeing their consumer's hair break.

When they don't see that and they know Olaplex is the reason why, we continue to generate a lot of people wanting to use the product for its performance. I think you've heard us said in our, you know, scripted remarks, one of the things that we are going to be doing a lot of in 2023 is to also go out and really serve the prestige and premium salons. That is important because we have always historically resonated, you know, with a lot of the salons that go into the beauty supply stores that buy their products on, you know, one service at a time, sometimes a couple of services at a time. Now, those premium and prestige salons are bigger buyers.

When they are more aware of what we can do for them, that is a powerful cohort that we want to go after. In that regard, you will see us putting efforts behind that, especially in 2023, which we have already started planning for this year.

Jonathan Keypour (Analyst)

Great. Thank you.

JuE Wong (CEO)

Absolutely.

Operator (participant)

Our last question will come from Ashley Helgans from Jefferies. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Ashley Helgans (SVP and Analyst)

Hey, thanks for taking our question. We've noticed a step-up in the promotional level just at beauty retailers recently. Can you just give us an update on your expectations for promo levels during the quarter and the cadence throughout the holiday season? Thanks so much.

JuE Wong (CEO)

Thanks very much for the question. I can't speak for everybody, you know, it's difficult for me to kind of give you a quantifiable number. Our transformation team, again, you know, we try to make decisions on data points. What is very important to note is there is no doubt that there has been increased promotions across all consumer products, and beauty is no exception. Olaplex has chosen very strategically not to participate in those increased promotions or over promote. When we do decide to participate in any kind of promotion activities, it has to do two things for us. It has to help us acquire new customers, and it has to help our loyal customers buy deeper into the brand. How do we make those decisions?

Because of our relationship with our retailers, both online and offline, and our pro community, you see us working with them on specific activations. When we do that kind of specific activations, we actually get consumer insights. We don't want to participate in general promotions, we, you know, especially if all it does is to encourage consumers to wait. When we do it is very targeted, and it's very strategic. You know, just to confirm, yes, there are more promotions out there, but we are not participating, you know, in more promotions than we did last year.

Ashley Helgans (SVP and Analyst)

Okay. Great. Thanks so much.

Operator (participant)

We are out of time for questions today. I would like to turn the call back over to JuE Wong for closing remarks.

JuE Wong (CEO)

Well, first of all, thank you so much for joining us today. I'd like to wish everyone a very happy and healthy holiday season, and I look forward to speaking with all of you at our upcoming conferences when we report Q4 results. Thank you, everyone.

Operator (participant)

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.