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OLAPLEX HOLDINGS, INC. (OLPX)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Net sales were $114.6M, down 3.8% YoY, with adjusted EBITDA of $30.8M (26.9% margin); specialty retail fell 13.5% while professional grew 5.3%, and DTC declined 2.9% . Revenue beat S&P Global consensus ($110.3M)* and S&P’s Primary EPS beat ($0.036 vs $0.024*) despite company-reported GAAP diluted EPS of $0.02, reflecting normalization differences; management reiterated FY’25 guidance and flagged earlier-than-expected shipments that benefited Q3 .
  • International net sales rose 7.1% YoY while U.S. declined 14.6%, as international partners leaned in and promotional management improved .
  • Gross margin expanded 50 bps YoY to 69.1% and adjusted gross margin rose 70 bps to 71.5% on improved promotional discipline, offsetting lower margins on new products not yet at scale .
  • Management reaffirmed FY’25 guidance: net sales $410–$431M, adjusted gross margin 70.5%–71.5%, adjusted EBITDA margin 20%–22%; outlook assumes no material tariff impact and recognizes Q3 pull-forward and potential Q4 destocking and macro uncertainty .
  • Stock narrative catalysts: coordinated 360° hair mask launch driving sell-through improvement, professional “Blitz” program, and international realignment; near-term watch items are Q4 holiday execution, DTC destocking, and U.S. sell-through trajectory .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Professional channel growth (+5.3% YoY to $44.5M) on stronger promotion management and education-led execution; early green shoots in reset regions and partner engagement .
  • Enhanced gross/adjusted gross margins (69.1% and 71.5%) on improved promotional discipline despite new products not yet at scale; adjusted EBITDA $30.8M at 26.9% margin .
  • Coordinated 360° marketing and product launch for two hair masks delivered sell-in and sell-through ahead of expectations, with nearly 700K impressions in three days and strong influencer/PR engagement .

“Simply put, this launch was the first time in which we had the team coordinated and the brand baseline built to execute the right content at the right time in the right place.” — Amanda Baldwin .

What Went Wrong

  • Specialty retail declined 13.5% YoY to $36.9M; U.S. net sales fell 14.6% YoY as sell-through remains in improvement mode and timing of orders shifted .
  • Adjusted EBITDA margin compressed YoY (26.9% vs 37.5%) due to increased investment in sales and marketing and organizational capabilities .
  • Earlier-than-expected shipments in September likely pulled some orders from October, creating potential headwind to Q4 cadence; management also anticipates industry destocking pressuring DTC in Q4 .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$119.1 $97.0 $106.3 $114.6
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)$81.7 $67.4 $75.6 $79.2
Gross Profit Margin (%)68.6% 69.5% 71.2% 69.1%
Adjusted Gross Profit ($USD Millions)$84.3 $69.7 $77.8 $81.9
Adjusted Gross Margin (%)70.8% 71.9% 73.2% 71.5%
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$44.6 $25.7 $24.6 $30.8
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)37.5% 26.5% 23.1% 26.9%
Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.02 $0.00 ($0.01) $0.02

Segment/channel breakdown:

ChannelQ3 2025 Net Sales ($USD Millions)YoY Change
Specialty Retail$36.9 (13.5%)
Professional$44.5 +5.3%
Direct-To-Consumer$33.3 (2.9%)

Geography:

RegionYoY Net Sales Change (%)
United States(14.6%)
International+7.1%

Balance sheet KPIs:

MetricDec 31, 2024Sep 30, 2025
Cash and Equivalents ($USD Millions)$586.0 $286.4
Inventory ($USD Millions)$75.2 $73.3
Long-term Debt ($USD Millions)$643.7 $352.1

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Net Sales ($USD Millions)FY 2025$410–$431 $410–$431 Maintained
Adjusted Gross Profit Margin (%)FY 202570.5%–71.5% 70.5%–71.5% Maintained
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)FY 202520%–22% 20%–22% Maintained
Quarterly cadence commentaryH2 2025Q3 high single-digit decline; Q4 high single-digit increase (timing/promotions) Early shipments benefited Q3; mindful of holiday macro and DTC destocking Updated timing context

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Brand/Marketing EngineBrand refresh and “Designed to Defy” platform; upper-funnel investment; Bond House activation First fully coordinated 360° hair mask campaign; sell-through improvement; nearly 700K impressions Improving execution
Innovation PipelineScalp Longevity Treatment; No.4 & 5 Fine; plan 2–3 launches/year Two new hair masks launched; acquisition of Provalus/Purvala to expand science capabilities Accelerating
Professional Channel ExecutionEducation upgrades and process discipline “Blitz” program in LA/Chicago/Dallas; mid-teens sell-through uplift post-Blitz Positive traction
International Go-to-MarketTiered partner approach; realignment underway Partner visits (Japan/Nordics/Germany); targeted investments; international outperformance Improving
Tariffs/MacroMinimal exposure; contingency planning; pricing levers considered FY’25 guidance assumes no material tariff impact; macro uncertain into holiday Monitoring
DTC Promotion StrategyShift from always-on to tentpole promotions Strong tentpole performance; Q4 DTC pressure from planned destocking Focused/tactical
Balance Sheet/Leverage$300M debt repayment post-Q1; ~$20M annual interest savings Cash $286.4M; debt $352.1M at Q3-end; positive operating cash flow Strengthened flexibility

Management Commentary

  • “Our team executed well… resulting in improvement in our sell-through trends at the end of the third quarter… and demonstrates marked progress in our transformational journey.” — Amanda Baldwin .
  • “Adjusted gross profit margin… up 70 basis points year-over-year… more than offset by margin expansion stemming from our improved promotional experience.” — Catherine Dunleavy .
  • “We are pleased to reiterate annual guidance… Our outlook considers earlier timing of sales that benefited the third quarter… [and] some planned industry destocking… which we expect will particularly pressure D2C.” — Catherine Dunleavy .
  • “By launching with the pro first, we reinforced our commitment… ensuring professional validation… and brought education directly to salons across North America.” — Amanda Baldwin .

Q&A Highlights

  • Timing shifts: Earlier-than-expected shipments landed in September vs October, potentially affecting Q4 cadence; inventory positions remain healthy .
  • Holiday setup and promotions: Marketing organization “ready,” with flexibility to read-and-react during Black Friday/Cyber Monday; positioning within a promotional backdrop remains disciplined .
  • Market share and category growth: Prestige haircare growing high-single digits; management acknowledged sell-out lagging category but highlighted mask launch outperformance and brand health improvements as leading indicators .
  • International vs U.S. dynamics: International outperformed on partner enthusiasm and timing; U.S. sell-through improving but not yet positive .
  • R&D and acquisition: Provalus/Purvala platform expected to balance fast-to-market innovations with longer-term bets; details to be shared as products emerge .

Estimates Context

MetricQ3 2025Q4 2025
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD Millions)110.32*106.04*
Actual Revenue ($USD Millions)114.58 N/A
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($USD)0.024*0.009*
S&P Primary EPS Actual ($USD)0.036*N/A
Company-reported Diluted EPS ($USD)0.02 N/A
Primary EPS – # of Estimates9*8*
Revenue – # of Estimates5*5*

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Implications: Revenue was a beat vs consensus; S&P’s Primary EPS framework indicates a beat, while company GAAP diluted EPS printed $0.02 (highlighting differences between normalized vs GAAP EPS). Q4 consensus embeds softer top-line and EPS, consistent with management’s caution on holiday macro and DTC destocking .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Q3 quality beat on revenue vs consensus with improved margins despite elevated brand investments; earlier shipments aided timing .
  • Professional channel momentum and international execution improvements are offsetting U.S. retail softness; watch U.S. sell-through trend into holiday .
  • The 360° masks launch is a credible template for future rollouts; evidence of sell-through outperformance and strong campaign metrics should underpin H1’26 pipeline confidence .
  • FY’25 guidance maintained; focus on delivering $410–$431M net sales and 20%–22% adjusted EBITDA margin despite macro uncertainty and planned DTC destocking .
  • Balance sheet optionality remains solid (cash $286M; debt $352M); prior $300M debt paydown supports interest savings and execution through turbulence .
  • Near-term trading: Expect sensitivity to holiday sell-through updates, any signs of U.S. retail reacceleration, and clarity on Q4 order timing; narrative skewed to execution proof points in masks and international .
  • Medium-term thesis: Brand health metrics and process discipline, combined with a revitalized innovation engine (including Purvala/Provalus science), can drive sustainable growth with improving channel mix and margin normalization over time .