OS
ON SEMICONDUCTOR CORP (ON)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q1 2025 delivered revenue of $1.45B and non-GAAP EPS of $0.55, both above the midpoint of guidance; GAAP results were heavily impacted by restructuring, yielding a GAAP diluted loss per share of ($1.15) .
- Non-GAAP gross margin fell to 40.0% from 45.3% in Q4 2024 and 45.9% in Q1 2024 due to lower utilization and pricing pockets; GAAP gross margin was 20.3% after $283M restructuring-related inventory and other charges .
- Guidance for Q2 2025: revenue $1.40–$1.50B, non-GAAP gross margin 36.5%–38.5%, non-GAAP EPS $0.48–$0.58; OpEx is guided down materially on restructuring savings, with utilization expected to decline slightly near-term .
- Structural actions and capital return: management reduced internal fab capacity by ~12%, cut workforce by ~9%, and intends to repurchase 100% of 2025 free cash flow (Q1 buybacks: $300M; ~66% of FCF) .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Strong free cash flow and disciplined cost/working-capital management: Cash from operations of $602M and free cash flow of $455M (31% of revenue), up 72% YoY; returned 66% of FCF via $300M buybacks .
- Industrial outperformed expectations: industrial revenue decreased only ~4% QoQ with “early signs of stabilization” and better late-quarter bookings trends; medical and aerospace & defense increased sequentially .
- Strategic design-win momentum and AI/data center traction: SiC JFET/MOSFET solutions ramping across UPS/PSU/BBU with hyperscaler wins; UPS revenue expected to grow 40%–50% YoY in 2025; image sensor wins at leading China OEMs .
Quotes:
- “We continue to see strong design win momentum... secured key wins with major global customers across all end-markets.” — CEO Hassane El‑Khoury .
- “For 2025, we intend to increase our share repurchase to 100% of free cash flow.” — CFO Thad Trent .
- “We are ramping with a large U.S. hyperscaler securing the majority share in their PSU and BBU.” — CEO Hassane El‑Khoury .
What Went Wrong
- Automotive softness and utilization under-absorption: automotive revenue down ~26% QoQ (seasonality in China, Europe weakness); utilization ticked to ~60% (from 59%), but non-GAAP gross margin declined to 40% with ~900 bps under-absorption in Q2 guide .
- Pricing pockets: management is using low single-digit price declines opportunistically to defend/increase share, contributing to margin pressure near-term .
- Significant restructuring charges hit GAAP: $539M in OpEx restructuring and $283M in gross restructuring-related inventory charges drove GAAP operating margin to (39.7)% and GAAP net loss of ($486.1)M .
Financial Results
Key GAAP Metrics
Key Non-GAAP Metrics
Actual vs Wall Street Consensus (S&P Global)
Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global (Capital IQ) via GetEstimates.
Segment Revenue
Operating KPIs
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- Strategic focus: “Fab Right approach” and R&D investments aim to deliver gross margin expansion as markets recover .
- Capacity actions: “Reduced our internal fab capacity by 12%… reduce ongoing depreciation by ~$22M annually; P&L impact in Q4’25” .
- Capital returns: “We intend to increase our share repurchase to 100% of free cash flow… ~$1.5B remaining authorization” .
- China EV positioning: “We expect to have our silicon carbide in nearly 50% of the new models… most set to ramp in late 2025” .
- Margin mechanics: “For every point of utilization, it’s now 25 to 30 bps of gross margin improvement… ~900 bps under-absorption in Q2” .
Q&A Highlights
- Relative conservatism vs peers: ON’s flat-ish Q2 revenue guide reflects end-market exposure (EV outside China lagging) rather than structural issues .
- Gross margin trajectory: Near-term GM constrained by utilization; add back ~900 bps under-absorption to gauge “standard” margin; leverage improves as utilization rises with a ~2-quarter lag .
- Noncore exits: Walked away from ~$50M in Q1; ~$300M likely for 2025 depending on margins; modulation can help utilization short term .
- Pricing: Low single-digit price declines used opportunistically to defend/increase share; expect cost actions to offset pricing over time .
- China EV and SiC: Competition primarily global peers; wins driven by performance/cost-of-ownership; trench MOSFET revenue in 2026 .
Estimates Context
- Q1 2025 results beat consensus: revenue $1.4457B vs $1.4018B* and non-GAAP EPS $0.55 vs $0.502*; EBITDA miss on GAAP due to restructuring .
- Q2 2025 consensus sits near ON’s guide midpoints: revenue ~$1.451B*, EPS ~$0.532* vs non-GAAP EPS guide $0.48–$0.58 .
Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global (Capital IQ) via GetEstimates.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Near-term margin pressure is primarily utilization-driven; structural actions enhance margin leverage per utilization point, setting up a stronger exit rate into late 2025/2026 .
- Expect continued FCF strength and aggressive buybacks (targeting 100% of FCF in 2025), a tangible support to EPS and share count despite cyclical headwinds .
- Industrial stabilization, medical/aerospace resilience, and AI/data center wins should partially offset automotive seasonality and pricing pockets in Q2 .
- SiC positioning in China EVs (targeting ~50% of new models) and PHEV adoption plus trench MOSFET roadmap provide medium-term revenue/margin catalysts .
- Watch Q2 utilization and under-absorption impacts; add back ~900 bps to approximate “standard” GM, and track inventory/bridge SiC normalization through 2H .
- Segment mix matters: PSG/AMG declines drove Q1 contraction; recovery in higher-value products (Treo, SiC) will be margin accretive over time .
- Trading implication: Results and guide imply a “wait for utilization turn” setup; near-term volatility likely around pricing/tariff narratives, while capital return and AI power wins underpin the medium-term thesis .