ONON Q1 2025: $10-Priced Cloud6 Drives Demand and Pricing Power
- Strong Brand Momentum: Executives highlighted the impact of high-profile campaigns (e.g., Zendaya, Cloud6) and viral ad initiatives that have significantly boosted the brand's awareness and demand across all regions.
- Successful Product Innovation with Pricing Power: The Cloud6 launch, introduced at a $10 higher base price without affecting demand, underscores On's ability to innovate while commanding premium pricing, reinforcing its market-leading position.
- Resilient Omnichannel Performance: Robust growth across D2C, retail, and wholesale channels is evident from strong same-store performance and controlled store expansion, supporting sustainable long-term growth.
- Tariff and FX Uncertainty: Increased tariff pressures—such as the 10% additional tariff on Vietnam imports during the pause period—and volatile foreign exchange rates create uncertainty around margins and cost structures.
- Automation and Supply Chain Risks: Ongoing reliance on new automation initiatives, notably the Atlanta warehouse project which is still in live testing, introduces execution risks that could disrupt order processing if implementation issues arise.
- Controlled Expansion in Wholesale and Retail: A cautious approach to expanding wholesale door counts and the deliberate restraint in adding new retail outlets may limit market penetration and revenue growth if consumer demand moderates.
Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|
Gross Profit Margin | FY 2025 | around 60.5% | 60% to 60.5% | lowered |
Adjusted EBITDA Margin | FY 2025 | 17% to 17.5% | 16.5% to 17.5% | lowered |
Net Sales Growth | FY 2025 | at least 27% / CHF 2.94B | no current guidance | no current guidance |
Regional Growth | FY 2025 | Slightly higher growth expected in H1 vs H2 | no current guidance | no current guidance |
FX Impact | FY 2025 | No sizable FX impact expected | no current guidance | no current guidance |
Revenue Share from Stores | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | 10% | no prior guidance |
Wholesale Door Growth | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | mid-single digits | no prior guidance |
Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
---|---|---|---|
Brand Momentum and Celebrity Endorsements | Emphasized in Q4 2024 with global awareness, celebrity partnerships (Zendaya, Roger Federer, Elmo) and in Q3 and Q2. | Maintains exceptional momentum and innovative celebrity campaigns (Zendaya, Elmo, Federer) driving strong consumer demand. | Consistent emphasis with positive sentiment across periods; the focus remains on driving global brand awareness and leveraging high-profile endorsements to sustain growth. |
Product Innovation and Premium Pricing | Highlighted in Q4 2024 with launches of Cloudsurfer 2 and upcoming Cloudboom Max , in Q3 with breakthroughs like Cloudsurfer Next and LightSpray related innovation , and in Q2 with strong innovation in performance products and strategic pricing. | Continued rollout of new products (Cloudsurfer 2, Cloud 6, future Cloudsurfer Max) and price increases to reinforce premium positioning. | Persistent focus on new product launches and premium pricing with a proactive approach that strengthens brand differentiation and future growth prospects. |
Supply Chain, Inventory, and Operational Execution Challenges | Addressed across Q4 with discussions on operational disruptions and inventory management , Q3 with improvements via warehouse automation and inventory shifts , and Q2 with challenges around the Atlanta warehouse transition. | Continued focus on scalability (LightSpray, Atlanta automation), strategic inventory management and mitigation of global trade uncertainties. | While challenges persist, improvements in automation and inventory management indicate a shift toward more resilient operations; sentiment moves from reactive to proactive. |
Omnichannel and DTC/Wholesale Channel Performance | Discussed robustly in Q4 with record DTC shares , in Q3 with multichannel growth and expanding retail presence , and in Q2 showing strong DTC and wholesale performance with high growth rates. | Emphasizes an integrated strategy with significant year-over-year growth in DTC and wholesale channels, supported by investments in technology and retail relationships. | Consistent and optimistic outlook with steady channel performance; continuous investments in omnichannel capabilities underpin a balanced growth strategy. |
Tariff, FX, and Macroeconomic Uncertainty | Q4 noted FX gains and caution due to macroeconomic conditions , Q3 discussed tariff adjustments and FX losses , and Q2 focused on stable FX impacts. | Highlights continued impact of a 10% tariff, volatility from FX depreciation and proactive pricing to counter uncertainties, alongside cautious consumer outlooks. | Increasing focus on external economic risks with proactive measures (e.g., price increases) emerging to mitigate effects; sentiment shifts toward cautious optimism. |
Retail Expansion and Apparel Sales Growth | Q4 reported major retail store openings and strong apparel sales growth , Q3 detailed aggressive expansion and record apparel share in own stores , and Q2 showed robust store network growth and double-digit apparel sales increases. | Continues aggressive retail expansion globally with new flagship openings and record apparel sales (notably a 93% year-over-year growth in apparel) driving premium brand experience. | A consistently positive trend with accelerated store expansion and record apparel performance that reinforces brand equity and future revenue potential. |
Innovative Manufacturing Technologies (LightSpray) and Sustainability | Q4 emphasized ramp-up plans and integration in sustainability efforts , Q3 detailed breakthrough potential and public recognition (Time’s 200 Best Inventions) , and Q2 focused on efficiency gains and CO2 reduction benefits. | Focused on scaling LightSpray technology globally; enhancing capital-intensive, automated, and sustainable manufacturing while underpinning product innovation. | Strong and consistent focus as a transformative driver; enhanced scalability and sustainability benefits position it as a key pillar for competitive future advantage. |
Risk of Overdependence on One-off Brand Events | Q2 highlighted that major brand initiatives were designed for long-term growth rather than one-off boosts ; Q3 and Q4 did not explicitly address this risk. | Not mentioned explicitly in Q1 2025; previous emphasis on integrated, sustainable brand campaigns reduces focus on isolated events. | Decreasing focus on one-off events as the company builds a diversified, long-term brand strategy; the risk is implicitly mitigated by a broader marketing approach. |
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Growth Outlook
Q: Which regions, channels drive growth outlook?
A: Management expects 28% constant currency growth with strong global momentum—especially in Asia Pacific, Europe, and the U.S.—supported by a robust order book for later quarters. -
Tariff Mitigation
Q: Tariff impact mitigation and price adjustments?
A: They factored current tariffs (e.g., a 10% tariff in Vietnam) into guidance and plan to raise prices starting Fall/Winter to offset such impacts. -
Brand & Americas
Q: How is brand and U.S. growth performing?
A: Executives highlighted vibrant brand awareness globally, noting that strong U.S. same-store results and effective campaigns are driving growth. -
Store Performance
Q: How do store rollouts perform overall?
A: Retail stores outside China have far exceeded expectations, playing a key role in building the premium brand and moving toward a 10% revenue share target. -
Apparel & Wholesale
Q: What fuels apparel success and its wholesale impact?
A: Improved sizing, targeted campaigns, and refined retail presentations have boosted record apparel sales and helped wholesale partners optimize their offerings. -
Cloud 6 & Q1 Momentum
Q: How is Cloud 6 resonating with consumers?
A: The Cloud 6 launch, priced $10 higher than its predecessor, has resonated well across demographics, contributing to record Q1 sales without price sensitivity. -
Wholesale Ordering
Q: Are wholesale orders showing caution?
A: Management reported no cancellations; wholesale partners are maintaining strong demand supported by high brand awareness. -
Wholesale Doors
Q: What about growth in wholesale door counts?
A: The outlook remains steady with mid-single digit growth in door openings, as expansion continues in a controlled manner. -
Leadership Transition
Q: How is leadership transition affecting strategy?
A: Despite Marc’s departure, Martin Hoffmann assured that the long-term strategy is unchanged, and a new CFO is under active search to bolster leadership. -
Automation & LightSpray
Q: What's the status on automation and LightSpray?
A: Progress is solid with Atlanta warehouse automation in live testing and upcoming LightSpray launches signaling future scalability.
Research analysts covering On Holding.