Executive Summary

Q1 2025 revenue was $85.41M, up 31% year-over-year and 6.7% sequential; Adjusted EBITDA was $20.06M (+32% YoY, -11% QoQ). RNG production reached 1.1M MMBtu (+38% YoY). OPAL maintained full-year 2025 guidance and highlighted strong Fuel Station Services momentum .
Against S&P Global consensus, OPAL delivered a revenue beat ($85.41M vs $82.24M*) and a Primary EPS beat (0.2385 vs 0.11*), while GAAP diluted EPS for Class A shareholders was $(0.01), reflecting non-controlling interests and preferred dividends and S&P Global*.
Management reiterated FY25 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $90–$110M, RNG production of 5.0–5.4M MMBtu, and Fuel Station Services EBITDA growth of 30–50%; the outlook assumes D3 RIN pricing of $2.60/gallon and ~$50M of ITC monetization in 2025 .
Near-term catalysts: regulatory clarity on 45Z/tax bills and EPA RFS set rule, Atlantic RNG commissioning in Q3 2025, and improving dispensing market tightness; management expects sequential RNG growth through 2025 and noted realized D3 RIN pricing of ~$2.71 in Q1, likely lower in Q2 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

RNG production and downstream execution: 1.1M MMBtu produced (+38% YoY) and Fuel Station Services sold/dispensed/serviced 40.6M GGEs (+16% YoY); Adjusted EBITDA rose to $20.06M (+32% YoY) .
Management kept FY25 guidance and emphasized sequential RNG production growth, with Atlantic on track for Q3 operations and 45 fueling stations under construction (19 owned) .
Quote: “First quarter results were in-line with expectations… we are on track to achieve our full year outlook set in March.” — Co-CEO Adam Comora .

What Went Wrong

Renewable Power segment softness: revenue fell to $7.13M from $10.08M YoY; segment Adjusted EBITDA decreased to $2.62M vs $3.87M YoY, impacted by lapse of ISCC export pathways late 2024 .
Adjusted EBITDA margin compressed QoQ (23.5% in Q1 vs 28.2% in Q4), reflecting lower realized RIN pricing expected in Q2 and virtual pipeline costs at Prince William .
Persistent macro/regulatory uncertainty delaying some customer investment decisions; management cited slower-than-hoped acceleration in adoption of 15L natural-gas engines but remains constructive long term .

Financial Results

Consolidated P&L vs Prior Periods and Estimates

Metric	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$84.05	$80.02	$85.41
GAAP Net Income ($USD Millions)	$17.11	$(5.37)	$1.28
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$31.10	$22.60	$20.06
GAAP Diluted EPS (Class A) ($)	$0.09	$(0.05)	$(0.01)
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)	37.0% (31.10/84.05)	28.2% (22.60/80.02)	23.5% (20.06/85.41)
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)	$32.68 (84.05-51.37)	$27.63 (80.02-52.39)	$26.77 (85.41-58.64)

Consensus vs Actual (S&P Global):

Metric	Q1 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD)	$82.93M*	$90.94M*	$82.24M*
Revenue Actual ($USD)	$64.95M	$80.02M	$85.41M
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($)	0.0675*	0.405*	0.11*
Primary EPS Actual ($)	0.23969*	0.5972*	0.2385*
Revenue - # of Estimates	6*	6*	5*
Primary EPS - # of Estimates	4*	2*	2*

Note: GAAP diluted EPS attributable to Class A in Q1 2025 was $(0.01), reflecting non-controlling interests and preferred dividends; S&P Global “Primary EPS” actual differs from GAAP per-share presentation and S&P Global*.

Segment Breakdown (Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024)

Segment	Revenue Q1 2024 ($M)	Revenue Q1 2025 ($M)	Adj. EBITDA Q1 2024 ($M)	Adj. EBITDA Q1 2025 ($M)
RNG Fuel	$17.73	$27.60	$15.84	$19.71
Fuel Station Services	$37.14	$50.68	$7.02	$11.22
Renewable Power	$10.08	$7.13	$3.87	$2.62
Corporate	—	—	$(11.51)	$(13.49)
Total	$64.95	$85.41	$15.22	$20.06

KPIs and Operating Metrics

KPI	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
RNG Produced (Million MMBtu)	1.0	1.1	1.1
RNG Dispensed (Million GGEs)	19.6	19.3	19.5
Total Fuel Station Services Volumes Sold/Dispensed/Serviced (Million GGEs)	38.7	41.9	40.6
RNG Pending Monetization ($USD Millions)	$23.11	$20.35	$15.09
D3 RIN price at quarter-end ($/RIN)	$3.52	$2.45	$2.47
Avg realized RIN price ($/RIN)	$3.22	$3.22	~$2.71 (Mgmt)
LCFS realized ($/credit)	$100.00	$100.00	$100.00
Liquidity ($USD Millions)	$285.3	$223.6	$239.9
Capex (Consol., RNG + stations) ($USD Millions)	$72.8 YTD (9M’24)	$127.2 FY’24	$11.6 Q1’25 (consol.); +$5.4 in unconsolidated
ITC sale proceeds ($USD Millions)	$8.6 in Q3’24	—	$8.9 in Q1’25

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance (Q4 2024)	Current Guidance (Q1 2025)	Change
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD)	FY 2025	$90M–$110M	$90M–$110M	Maintained
RNG Production (MMBtu)	FY 2025	5.0–5.4	5.0–5.4	Maintained
Fuel Station Services Adj. EBITDA growth	FY 2025	+30% to +50% vs 2024	+30% to +50% vs 2024	Maintained
D3 RIN Price Assumption	FY 2025	$2.60/gal	$2.60/gal	Maintained
ITC Sales (cash proceeds)	FY 2025	~ $50M (excluded from Adj. EBITDA)	~ $50M (excluded from Adj. EBITDA)	Maintained
RNG Capacity to place into construction	FY 2025	~2.0M MMBtu	~2.0M MMBtu	Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q3 2024, Q4 2024)	Current Period (Q1 2025)	Trend
Regulatory/tax (45Z, RFS set rule, partial waiver)	Discussed D3 volumes, bipartisan support, 45Z proposal; RFS timelines; partial waiver extension; sensitivity to D3 RIN levels	Expect clarity “in coming weeks”; minimal 45Z in guidance; diversity via downstream incentives; bipartisan support reiterated	Awaiting clarity; constructive long-term
Fuel Station Services demand and 15L engine rollout	Tight dispensing; margins improving; backlog growing; Freightliner joining; UPS deployments; adoption constrained by OEM coverage	30–50% EBITDA growth guided; adoption slower than hoped but improving with product availability	Improving platform; continued growth expected
Tariffs/macro	Tariffs expected limited impact; domestic content mitigates materials exposure	No tariff cost increases seen; fixed-price equipment; watch future projects	Limited impact near term
RIN pricing & trading	Sold forward 2024/2025 strips; Q3 realized ~$3.22; 2025 trades ~ $3.00	Q1 realized ~$2.71; expects lower in Q2; guidance assumes $2.60 for FY25	Lower sequential pricing; managed via trading and guidance
Renewable Power & export pathways	ISCC pathway lapse; focus on baseload, potential e-RIN and data centers; Europe pathways being reevaluated	Revenue down; ISCC lapse cited; monitoring e-RIN/green baseload opportunities	Transitional; optionality retained
Capital allocation & FCF	Strong ITC monetization; disciplined growth; toggle between growth and FCF	Flexibility to deploy or return capital; considering buybacks in future if returns compress	Optionality emphasized

Management Commentary

“We are maintaining our full year guidance set out in March and expect to see sequential quarterly RNG production growth throughout the year as our newer projects continue to ramp.” — Adam Comora, Co-CEO .
“We maintain our 2025 RNG production guidance of 5.0 million MMBtu to 5.4 million MMBtu… We are maintaining our guidance to grow Fuel Station Services 2025 adjusted EBITDA 30% to 50% versus 2024.” — Jonathan Maurer, Co-CEO .
“Our guidance assumes D3 RIN pricing of $2.60 per gallon for the entire 2025… we expect roughly $50 million in total ITC sales in 2025.” — Kazi Hasan, CFO .
“We did have an average realized RIN price of about $2.71 in the first quarter… our second-quarter RIN price will likely be lower than what it was in the first quarter.” — Adam Comora .

Q&A Highlights

Production cadence and utilization: Sequential production growth expected as winter effects fade, virtual pipeline replaced by direct-connect (Polk) and Atlantic starts Q3; operating team additions to improve availability .
Tariffs impact: No current cost increases; fixed-price equipment and domestic content status limit exposure; future impact assessed at FID stage .
RIN pricing strategy: Average realized ~$2.71 in Q1; likely lower in Q2; selling “as we go,” ~50% of annual position sold .
Segment performance drivers: Fuel Station Services growth from owned stations, construction margins, service contracts, and higher throughput/utilization .
Capital returns: Flexibility to deploy into high-return growth or consider buybacks/dividends if returns compress; focus on maximizing shareholder value .

Estimates Context

Q1 2025 revenue beat: $85.41M actual vs $82.24M* consensus (beat ~3.9%). Primary EPS beat: 0.2385 actual vs 0.11* consensus. Coverage: 5* revenue estimates, 2* EPS estimates. GAAP diluted EPS for Class A was $(0.01), reflecting non-controlling interests and preferred dividends and S&P Global*.
Implications: Consensus likely to adjust for stronger Fuel Station Services performance and RNG volume trajectory, while normalizing for lower sequential RIN realization and Renewable Power softness .

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

Sequential RNG production ramp and Atlantic commissioning underpin FY25 guidance; watch regulatory milestones (45Z, RFS set rule) over the next 1–2 months as potential stock catalysts .
Fuel Station Services remains a key growth engine (30–50% EBITDA growth guided), leveraged to tight dispensing markets and increased RNG throughput; supports cash flow stability amid RIN price volatility .
Trading setup: Q1 showed a revenue and Primary EPS beat vs consensus*, but EBITDA margin compressed QoQ; management outlook assumes lower RIN prices vs Q1 realized and maintains $2.60 baseline .
Capital flexibility: ~ $240M liquidity and ~$50M ITC monetization expected in 2025 provide optionality for growth, M&A, or eventual capital returns; monitor management commentary on buybacks/dividends as project returns evolve .
Risk factors: Renewable Power earnings headwinds from ISCC lapse; macro/regulatory uncertainty affecting customer capex decisions and RIN price path; virtual pipeline costs expected to abate with direct-connect .
Near-term focus: Q2 RIN realizations (likely lower), construction execution (Atlantic), station build-out, and updates on EPA/tax policy clarity—each a potential narrative mover in the stock .

Appendix: Additional Detail and Data Citations

Q1 2025 press release, financials, and exhibits: revenue $85.41M; net income $1.28M; diluted EPS (Class A) $(0.01); Adjusted EBITDA $20.06M; RNG produced 1.1M MMBtu; FSS volumes 40.6M GGEs; RNG pending monetization $15.09M; liquidity $239.9M; capex $11.6M (consol.) + $5.4M (unconsolidated); D3 RIN at quarter-end $2.47; LCFS realized $100 .
Q4 2024 baseline: revenue $80.02M; net loss $(5.37)M; Adjusted EBITDA $22.60M; RNG produced 1.1M MMBtu; FSS volumes 41.9M GGEs; RNG pending monetization $20.35M; liquidity $223.6M .
Q3 2024 context: revenue $84.05M; net income $17.11M; Adjusted EBITDA $31.10M; RNG produced 1.0M MMBtu; FSS volumes 38.7M GGEs; RNG pending monetization $23.11M; RIN $3.52; LCFS $66.50 (quarter end), realized RIN ~$3.22 .
Call transcript highlights: guidance confirmation, realized RIN pricing, segment drivers, regulatory outlook, tariff commentary .

OPAL Fuels Inc. (OPAL)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary